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DJIA
Old 04-05-2020, 01:52 PM   #1
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DJIA

The Dow is a forward leading indicator. Wondering how far in others opinion it is presumably looking ahead. They so called experts are calling for over 30% unemployment before this thing is all over. Seems to me the Dow should be down a lot more than it is.
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Old 04-05-2020, 02:03 PM   #2
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It depends on whether it's going to be 30% unemployment for a month or 5 years. I think the prices now reflect a relatively short period of instability. Now if we find out that there really isn't a treatment or vaccine and this will happen every year, you should expect a substantial drop.
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Old 04-06-2020, 01:00 PM   #3
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I do not follow the DJIA as it includes only 30 issues. S&P is more inclusive and is usually quoted at the same time. Pick one and follow it.
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Old 04-06-2020, 01:18 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by ripper1 View Post
The Dow is a forward leading indicator. ...
With respect, really? Correlation data to back this up?
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Old 04-06-2020, 01:30 PM   #5
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Almost time to go short again.
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Old 04-06-2020, 02:02 PM   #6
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I do not follow the DJIA as it includes only 30 issues. S&P is more inclusive and is usually quoted at the same time. Pick one and follow it.
I agree, but you should be more clear, the "S&P" has many indices, I assume you are referring to the "S&P 500 index"? Or maybe you mean the "S&P Total Market Index?" (SPTMI), that's even better.
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Old 04-06-2020, 02:21 PM   #7
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IMHO, the only reason the markets haven't dropped further is the promises of the central banks to print money and buy assets. Should people starting having problems with either the Fed printing or buying (or the two together), "look out below".
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