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Old 04-03-2020, 08:25 PM   #61
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Add to this municipalities releasing prisoners early to uncrowd jails as Houston is thinking of doing. Boy, that makes good sense!


Yep. Itís already happening in my area. Keep in mind, itís only non-violent criminals. Not great, but new times call for new norms.
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Old 04-03-2020, 08:27 PM   #62
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Yep. Itís already happening in my area. Keep in mind, itís only non-violent criminals. Not great, but new times call for new norms.
Um, sure. I am sure they are all really wonderful people. So long as they stay away from me and mine.
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Old 04-03-2020, 08:32 PM   #63
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Um, sure. I am sure they are all really wonderful people. So long as they stay away from me and mine.

They rotated in and out of jail pre-corona. Itís never been a priority. Who knows, maybe with stay at home orders, theyíll decide to be complaint. I wouldnít bet on it though.
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Old 04-03-2020, 08:34 PM   #64
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They rotated in and out of jail pre-corona. Itís never been a priority. Who knows, maybe with stay at home orders, theyíll decide to be complaint. I wouldnít bet on it though.
Dumping felons on the street in the middle of a pandemic and a severe recession. What could go wrong?
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Old 04-03-2020, 08:43 PM   #65
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Bottom? There is no calling the bottom.
But if you think we found it in 30 days perhaps stocks are not for you?
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Old 04-03-2020, 08:44 PM   #66
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Dumping felons on the street in the middle of a pandemic and a severe recession. What could go wrong?
A friend of mine owns 6 Burger Kings here on the north side of Houston. He told me today that two of them have been broken into at night this week and the thieves used a grinder to cut into the safe.

He has had no break ins or robberies in years upto this week.
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Old 04-03-2020, 08:47 PM   #67
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A friend of mine owns 6 Burger Kings here on the north side of Houston. He told me today that two of them have been broken into at night this week and the thieves used a grinder to cut into the safe.

He has had no break ins or robberies in years upto this week.
On the plus side, I basically don't leave the house now. Want to try breaking in? I am your huckleberry.
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Old 04-03-2020, 09:12 PM   #68
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Was Dow 18000 the bottom? No. A breakdown of Apple, Microsoft, and United Health, McDonalds, Visa, Goldman Sachs, and Home Depot will cause a break through 18000.
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Old 04-03-2020, 09:27 PM   #69
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Consider this one case. Delta Airlines is out today stating they expect revenues for the 2nd Quarter to be down 90%. The CEO stated that they are burning cash at the rate of 60 million dollars per day. The airline industry as a whole is getting 25 billion of aid, which sounds like a lot until you realize that Delta by the end of the second Quarter will be a company with no business and having burned up 5.4 billion dollars in the previous Quarter.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1246177536452767744
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Old 04-03-2020, 09:42 PM   #70
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Why donít you short the market then ?
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Old 04-03-2020, 09:52 PM   #71
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Why donít you short the market then ?
Perhaps he did.

I was short and closed my short positions as the bear market rally started. Now I am sitting in cash and watching. I'd love to go dumpster diving, but the economic statistics keep coming out worse than I could have imagined, so I just watch and wait.
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Old 04-03-2020, 09:53 PM   #72
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Why donít you short the market then ?
If I am incorrect in my assumption at present I lose nothing and have plenty for retirement. My retirement plans do not include trying to become as wealthy as possible, they are to be conservative in my investments that allows me to live freely in my older years. Had I come to this conclusion in a similar fashion before it became evident and could short the market extremely cheaply I would have as I did in the past. There was plenty of warnings and people I respected went short, I missed that opportunity, it is far too expensive now allowing for very little error on timing. The market at this point could still go to 1300 on the S&P500 in a bear market yet rally to 3000 before it turns down again. If the market were to rise to 3000 and get near the 200 day moving average then at that point perhaps I will, but now no.
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Old 04-04-2020, 06:40 AM   #73
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How come that we are not ready and looking for lungs ventilators in China and Russia? Did not our scientists warned for years that it is a matter of time when deadly pandemic will strike?
How come? Choices / priorities / limits.

In 2015, the state of NY determined that they needed 16,000 more ventilators (than the 2,000 they had) to be prepared for a pandemic. At a cost of $36K each, that was $576 million. Not a trivial sum. They decided to spend the money elsewhere, and instead created a set of rules for how to ration the ventilators they did have.

In hindsight, that looks like a poor decision. But, they do not have unlimited funds. If we were being hit with a different catastrophic event right now, for which ventilators were of no use, would people be criticizing them for wasting all that money on ventilators instead of what we REALLY needed?
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Old 04-04-2020, 06:40 AM   #74
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Nope. No idea of the bottom, but it will be below 18,000.
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Old 04-04-2020, 07:12 AM   #75
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Letís see what happens when the apex of death hits, how will the market handle 100k dead, 200k? Will life return to the previous normal? And big question is what happens if there is a second wave or a mutation that that is worse than the current virus?

Many industries will recover and thrive, others not so much. I donít think cruising will ever be the same for example.
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Old 04-04-2020, 07:25 AM   #76
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Letís see what happens when the apex of death hits, how will the market handle 100k dead, 200k? Will life return to the previous normal? And big question is what happens if there is a second wave or a mutation that that is worse than the current virus?

Many industries will recover and thrive, others not so much. I donít think cruising will ever be the same for example.

Was just reading something like this on another forum. All those numbers, the sick, the dead, even how many potentially unemployed, (10,20,30%...) are calculable numbers. The stimulus money and other support payments. The market, supposedly, has all that priced in already, doesn't it? I'm not saying it does. I don't think the market is particularly "smart" or knowing. But that's the orthodoxy. They come... they see... they price it in. A case can be made for the bottom having already been hit.
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Old 04-04-2020, 09:18 AM   #77
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How come? Choices / priorities / limits.

In 2015, the state of NY determined that they needed 16,000 more ventilators (than the 2,000 they had) to be prepared for a pandemic. At a cost of $36K each, that was $576 million. Not a trivial sum. They decided to spend the money elsewhere, and instead created a set of rules for how to ration the ventilators they did have.

In hindsight, that looks like a poor decision. But, they do not have unlimited funds. If we were being hit with a different catastrophic event right now, for which ventilators were of no use, would people be criticizing them for wasting all that money on ventilators instead of what we REALLY needed?
Hey. This Forum is part of the Internet.
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Old 04-04-2020, 09:47 AM   #78
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If I am incorrect in my assumption at present I lose nothing and have plenty for retirement. My retirement plans do not include trying to become as wealthy as possible, they are to be conservative in my investments that allows me to live freely in my older years.

Ding, ding, ding! EXACTLY. Once you have enough to live on (plus a margin for error) you need to become almost fanatical in managing risk. If you determine you need $1 million (for example) and you have, say, $1.5 million then there is no point of trying for $2 million or $3 million unless you are greedy. At that point return OF capital becomes infinitely more important than return ON capital.



I'm following a similar strategy to you but I am also taking small shots to the downside with options. My portfolio was up about 1% in the first quarter which was just fine. Once I determined we had enough my strategy was constructed intentionally to underperform in a bull market and massively outperform in a bear market. People call that conservative. I call it prudent.


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Old 04-04-2020, 11:04 AM   #79
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I have always felt that the tiger in the bushes for retirement is inflation. That is one of the reasons that I have used for planning to delay SS to 70. I do not know how well the market is correlated to inflation (if at all). I believe we personally will be OK. What was a very comfortable retirement for some could become a bit snug if we embark on a few years of high inflation. I think the market will retest the lows, and am surprised that it has held up as well as it has this past few weeks.
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Old 04-04-2020, 11:13 AM   #80
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I have always felt that the tiger in the bushes for retirement is inflation. That is one of the reasons that I have used for planning to delay SS to 70. I do not know how well the market is correlated to inflation (if at all). I believe we personally will be OK. What was a very comfortable retirement for some could become a bit snug if we embark on a few years of high inflation. ...
Yup. Big tiger. High impact, though one can argue about probabilities. That is why about 90% of our fixed income side is in TIPS. I view any difference between TIPS total return and a treasury bond's total return as a premium paid for inflation insurance. No different than the premium I pay for fire insurance on our houses.
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