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Old 04-07-2020, 04:19 PM   #121
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A big part of the economy that would be possible to reopen sooner is the white collar cubicle dweller community. Many of these guys are in 8x8 cubicles or actual offices. Social distancing by sitting in every third chair in a conference room, closing every other urinal, etc. is doable.

And perhaps companies will reverse the open floor plan nonsense.

Reopening financial companies, publishers, engineering companies, engineering departments of manufacturers, and other residents of generic office buildings would help a lot. They might operate a little less efficiently, but that's much better than not operating at all.
Assuming they have a revenue stream, I would guess that is the part of the economy least affected by all of this. Almost all of those people are working from home.
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Old 04-07-2020, 04:33 PM   #122
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I do not believe 18,000 is the bottom because corporate earnings comes out quarterly. March 31 was a partial virus effect on corporate earnings. June 30 will be a complete virus effect. It will not be pretty when those numbers are published.

Also 50/50 portfolio managers has to re-balance since their original 50/50 portfolio is now 40/60. Re-balancing is necessary to ensure better recovery. For example: $1M equity/$1M bond portfolio becomes $700K equity/$1M bond after a 30% drop assuming bonds does not decline. If there is a 30% recovery and no re-balancing, then the portfolio becomes $910K equity/$1M bond. Hence, the 50/50 portfolio manager is behind $90K without re-balancing... even after a 100% market recovery. Re-balancing may contribute to a dead cat bounce.
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Old 04-07-2020, 04:42 PM   #123
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If we guessing when economy is going to reopen after pandemic, look at China Wuhan. Keep in mind that totalitarian regimes, like China communist party rulers, always have much stricter control over people, with harsh punishments for violating quarantine. The pandemic and lock down started in late November, the province was blocked and nobody was allowed to move out. Did we implement similar rules and when? Even if we did at best it is going to be 4 - 5 month. I think it is not going to happen till summer, possibly late summer.
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Old 04-07-2020, 05:29 PM   #124
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Assuming they have a revenue stream, I would guess that is the part of the economy least affected by all of this. Almost all of those people are working from home.
+1, I can personally vouch for that!
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Old 04-07-2020, 06:18 PM   #125
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It certainly seems like this is going to take quite awhile to sort out. I do not understand these market rallies when we see what is coming.On top of that, it will most likely return in the fall/winter and we will not yet have a vaccine or drug to cure it unless there is a miracle.
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Old 04-07-2020, 06:21 PM   #126
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Yes
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Old 04-07-2020, 06:45 PM   #127
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I think so. Even if the next few quarters income streams are replaced with zeros the net present value of the stock market should not have changed (as much as it did).
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Old 04-07-2020, 07:16 PM   #128
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"Do you think Dow 18,000 was the bottom?"

Who cares.
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Old 04-07-2020, 07:19 PM   #129
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Nope, I think we'll see 1870 on S&P, and DJ at best 15,300 on next leg down. The long term damage that is being done to keep the economy closed will be 'a learning lesson' for the government officials that demanded it. Sad time for the USA, but I am still VERY happy to be retired.
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Old 04-07-2020, 07:22 PM   #130
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Hopefully it would not come to it but if it is, I will keep my shot gun loaded and close by. I am looking with horror on what happens in New York and other states. How come that we are not ready and looking for lungs ventilators in China and Russia? Did not our scientists warned for years that it is a matter of time when deadly pandemic will strike?

They've been warning us for a few decades. There was a plan that was ignored not that that would have stopped it but it should have helped.
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Old 04-08-2020, 10:08 AM   #131
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A big part of the economy that would be possible to reopen sooner is the white collar cubicle dweller community. Many of these guys are in 8x8 cubicles or actual offices. Social distancing by sitting in every third chair in a conference room, closing every other urinal, etc. is doable.

And perhaps companies will reverse the open floor plan nonsense.

Reopening financial companies, publishers, engineering companies, engineering departments of manufacturers, and other residents of generic office buildings would help a lot. They might operate a little less efficiently, but that's much better than not operating at all.
Depends on the underlying economics of the industry. My old industry (Energy) is getting a double whammy of oil glut and virus. DW took a pay cut for the first time in 30 years and will most likely be let go when her energy company goes bankrupt.

Airlines, hotels, etc, etc. will have a hard time restarting for quite a while, I think.
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Old 04-08-2020, 10:41 AM   #132
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Out of curiosity, if we go back to highs, will the people who thought it was going to go lower than 18000 remain out of the market or continue waiting?
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Old 04-08-2020, 10:45 AM   #133
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I think I will be able to confidently tell you about a week after it happens!
Only a week.
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Old 04-08-2020, 10:51 AM   #134
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Out of curiosity, if we go back to highs, will the people who thought it was going to go lower than 18000 remain out of the market or continue waiting?
The ones who successfully time the market will be posting about their success and, at least deep in their hearts, will believe that they are geniuses. The people who are not successful will probably not be heard from.
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Old 04-08-2020, 11:00 AM   #135
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Out of curiosity, if we go back to highs, will the people who thought it was going to go lower than 18000 remain out of the market or continue waiting?
That would be my fear, that I'd be stuck out of the market while it kept recovering. My sense is that it should be hit harder than it has been, but I'm not good at predicting the market so I just stay invested at around my AA goal. I may have lost a chance to sell off and get back in lower, but I'm not greedy, so I'll ride it down and hopefully ride it back up. I've got plenty of cash to get me through it. Others of you can do what you see fit.
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Old 04-08-2020, 11:14 AM   #136
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...I just stay invested at around my AA goal...
May I ask what is your AA? Mine was 50/50 in Feb, now is down to 45/55 .
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Old 04-08-2020, 11:15 AM   #137
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My crystal ball Is still intact and it says the bottom will be at 14,973
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Old 04-08-2020, 11:32 AM   #138
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May I ask what is your AA? Mine was 50/50 in Feb, now is down to 45/55 .
I was 62% equities (120-age) but decided to go 60% by the end of last year. I think I'm within 1% of that. Looks to be about 12% cash. Sometimes I just record current balances without doing the full stock/bond/cash split.
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Old 04-08-2020, 12:55 PM   #139
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Out of curiosity, if we go back to highs, will the people who thought it was going to go lower than 18000 remain out of the market or continue waiting?
the vast majority of us pessimists never got out because we aren’t market timers other than a little guess work about when to rebalance. I’m at 65/35. If the current bounce continues on up I will just have to rebalance towards bonds sooner than I expect. If my pessimism is correct I may rebalance the other way a couple of more times.
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Old 04-08-2020, 01:22 PM   #140
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the vast majority of us pessimists never got out because we aren’t market timers ...
Well, I don't go to casinos either, but I would not call myself a pessimist because of that. "Realist" comes to mind. ...
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