Dtail
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Lots of fortune tellers here.
Can I meet you all in Vegas this weekend? I need your insights.
Vegas is closed right now.
Wyoming has lots of open space.
Lots of fortune tellers here.
Can I meet you all in Vegas this weekend? I need your insights.
Have we seen this level of low interest rates before? One of the questions that struggle with is this- Where do you put your money that is not invested in equities? Most of my invest-able amount is tied up in a 401k or roth, so I don't know if I can put it into a CD somewhere. And those interest rates are very low. I have not been a fan of bonds, because I never saw the rationale in putting your money into a lower performing vehicle. Especially here in recent times when bonds also decreased in value. So if you think equities are going to drop, where do you stash the cash? Perhaps that is what is holding up the market, for the time being. Every payday we see new funds coming in that are allocated to a certain buying pattern, but I find it hard to believe that those inflows can be propping up the market in perpetuity.
Rewind the clock 50 years and I saw my father sell a business, at the absolute peak. Put the money into CDs and S&Ls because they were paying too much interest. Got uncomfortable with that, and pulled out just before that went pop, and put it into the market. I don't know where he hid the crystal ball, but the timing was good. Moved a bunch into Florida real estate and built houses for awhile, Mom got out of those the year before a whole bunch of hurricanes tore up the Florida market.
Right now- where do you stash the cash? This ZIRP stuff has me buffaloed.
I don't think the market reflects the extent of the damage that is happening to the global economy. Restarting the economy in the US (much less the global economy) is going to be difficult because different states will be doing different things. Totally out of sync.
As the pressure to re-open the economy builds there are several factors that are important. Even if a business opens that doesn't mean that customers will respond accordingly - if fact until more is known I would bet that caution will be the norm.
Can we count on the FED continuing to rescue the market even as we see them delve into junk bonds? Can Congress continue to subsidize workers and even more so businesses until things stabilize? Bankruptcies, cuts in capital spending, earnings that aren't reflective of current events....everyone suspending guidance, and so far not even a mention of the oil situation. I think for the foreseeable future.........CASH IS KING
Have we seen this level of low interest rates before? One of the questions that struggle with is this- Where do you put your money that is not invested in equities? Most of my invest-able amount is tied up in a 401k or roth, so I don't know if I can put it into a CD somewhere. And those interest rates are very low. I have not been a fan of bonds, because I never saw the rationale in putting your money into a lower performing vehicle. Especially here in recent times when bonds also decreased in value. So if you think equities are going to drop, where do you stash the cash? Perhaps that is what is holding up the market, for the time being. Every payday we see new funds coming in that are allocated to a certain buying pattern, but I find it hard to believe that those inflows can be propping up the market in perpetuity.
Rewind the clock 50 years and I saw my father sell a business, at the absolute peak. Put the money into CDs and S&Ls because they were paying too much interest. Got uncomfortable with that, and pulled out just before that went pop, and put it into the market. I don't know where he hid the crystal ball, but the timing was good. Moved a bunch into Florida real estate and built houses for awhile, Mom got out of those the year before a whole bunch of hurricanes tore up the Florida market.
Right now- where do you stash the cash? This ZIRP stuff has me buffaloed.
I will jump in again, and don’t think all the connections are made in all the algorithms to truly understand the potential recession. As a person with many years in Supply Chain, the disruptions are truly unprecedented and will take months to get back to normal, which infir one don’t think can be priced in.
Heck, right now 25% of the nation's pork processing capacity is shut down and farmers are starting to euthanize hogs because they have nowhere to sell them and can't afford to feed them. Two weeks to meat shortages.
No way that sort of thing is in the algorithms.
I have a smoker, but only need one hog! But this is almost like oil two days ago going below zero, kill the hog and pay me to come get it to take it off their hands since they can’t afford to feed them. Pork Belly Futures anyone?
Part of the reason you get so many different opinions is that there is quite a wide range of financial situations among the group.
...
His advise [advice] is that if someone tells you they have a strong feeling about a financial event about to occur, the safe this [thing] to do is not to believe them.
Here is a link to the talk.
https://annual.cfainstitute.org/201...n-expertise-bias-and-the-investment-industry/
+/- 168%-2964
Sure, the longer the shut down means more shortages in food supplies we will see. Even harsher conditions may come with a second wave of COVID spread if we reopen prematurely.Heck, right now 25% of the nation's pork processing capacity is shut down and farmers are starting to euthanize hogs because they have nowhere to sell them and can't afford to feed them. Two weeks to meat shortages.
No way that sort of thing is in the algorithms.
PE ratio is still well above long-term market average. Very realistically the market drops to below market average for awhile. So yes, DOW still might drop to 18,000
I agree with the PE ratio being up too high so the market is over valued.
Why is there a market rally in a pandemic? That does not make sense. But wait. I have a saying: If it does not make sense, then it's politics.
We all know who is in power now. We all know that the Fed is semi-independent. We all know that the Treasury Department is not. I like to speculate on whether there is a connection between the market rally and the people currently in power.
Too many people are focused on the opening up of the economy in June and July. Not enough attention is being focused on the election in October and November. If my speculation is true, then the stock market may potentially crash again when we get near or after the actual election.
100% agree, but you are (probably) also assuming that the Admin changes hands. If it doesn't, then I believe the propping up of the market could very well continue.
As stated before, there also could be a chance for a downswing in the 3rd quarter if the economy outlook at that time becomes more negative.