Do you think Dow 18,000 was the bottom?

[aja8888]

OXY was up 25% today also. That's nuts!

 

[brewer12345]

The muppets are also chasing near bankrupt retailers, mall operators, airlines, energy companies. Even Chesapeake energy popped 75.6% today and their bonds are trading at 3-5 cents on the dollar. The company even warned that they may not be in business too much longer a couple of weeks ago:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/shale-...ergy-warns-its-future-is-in-peril-11589204463

Amazing. Well, it will all end in tears. I am having flashbacks to 1999.

 

[Dtail]

I disagree. The fed is there 1) to provide liquidity, including as the lender of last resort and 2) to mitigate against economic stock through monetary policy. How well they do this is reflected in confidence in the stock market, but they don't "prop" the stock market directly. Rather than these vague accusations, can you list what specific actions they have taken that are counter to #1 or #2 or actions where they bought stocks directly to increase stock prices?

I have to disagree. The Fed is not as independent as in the past and Powell has been under previous tremendous pressure to satisfy his bosses.
There were likely strong suggestions to influence policy which INDIRECTLY props the stock market and can also be good for certain parts of the economy. No negative comments on the Fed now, except an occasional reference on negative rates.
So Powell will keep acting in tow.

 

[Freedom56]

Amazing. Well, it will all end in tears. I am having flashbacks to 1999.

I think this will be quite different from 1999. We will see a tidal wave of bankruptcies over the next 12 months like never before.

 

[gerntz]

The markets numbers are base on future projections, not current numbers only. The numbers are positive so the market views things are on the rebound. Any number of things can happen in the near future to bring it down and vice versa to keep it going up. Seems like a lot of people on this board are very pessimistic.

Agree. Perhaps they have a (in)vested interest.

 

[lalanian6]

it seems quite a few on this board are not only pessimistic, but almost upset the market is rallying; i guess i don't understand negative comments about a positive market.


the market has never really been predictable, nor does it care if you think it's overvalued...so why not just enjoy the ride?

 

[street]

^ Beautiful well stated!

 

[JJpop]

I disagree. The fed is there 1) to provide liquidity, including as the lender of last resort and 2) to mitigate against economic stock through monetary policy. How well they do this is reflected in confidence in the stock market, but they don't "prop" the stock market directly. Rather than these vague accusations, can you list what specific actions they have taken that are counter to #1 or #2 or actions where they bought stocks directly to increase stock prices?

However you want to frame it, the bottom line is they are propping up the stock market. It is what it is.

 

[brewer12345]

it seems quite a few on this board are not only pessimistic, but almost upset the market is rallying; i guess i don't understand negative comments about a positive market.


the market has never really been predictable, nor does it care if you think it's overvalued...so why not just enjoy the ride?

I think this is an unsustainable bubble. Usually when bubbles burst there is a lot of collateral damage.

 

[CardsFan]

So many here know EXACTLY what will happen, but since they split 50/50, half of them are wrong.

Which half? I know, but I won't tell.

 

[W2R]

So happy with how the market is doing now. Today was my ALL TIME HIGH for my total of portfolio + bank accounts.

W... W... Oh fooey, how about WOW!!! I am so happy.

​

My prior all time high for this sum was on 2/14/2020. I did get a tax refund since then, plus SS, plus mini-pension, plus stimulus money, plus dividends, all of which helped push my total over the edge.

Just to be clear, this is not due to any investing acumen. As always when the market tanked, I just froze and did nothing except rebalance once according to my written rebalancing rules, on 3/23/2020.

 

[CardsFan]

So happy with how the market is doing now. Today was my ALL TIME HIGH for my total of portfolio + bank accounts.

W... W... Oh fooey, how about WOW!!! I am so happy.

​

My prior all time high for this sum was on 2/14/2020. I did get a tax refund since then, plus SS, plus mini-pension, plus stimulus money, plus dividends, all of which helped push my total over the edge.

Just to be clear, this is not due to any investing acumen. As always when the market tanked, I just froze and did nothing except rebalance once according to my written rebalancing rules, on 3/23/2020.

Oh Great. NOW we have a NEW W-word to worry about. Must be time to sell.

 

[W2R]

Oh Great. NOW we have a NEW W-word to worry about. Must be time to sell.

I wonder? Oh well, for me it seems like it is always time to wait and do nothing. That's good because I don't know enough about the market to do anything else.

 

[tdv2]

I wonder? Oh well, for me it seems like it is always time to wait and do nothing. That's good because I don't know enough about the market to do anything else.

I wouldn't change a thing.

 

[mckittri2000]

Agree. Perhaps they have a (in)vested interest.

True. Everyone has their level of volatility that they can handle. Investing is a person's own choice whichever way they choose to do it.

 

[pb4uski]

it seems quite a few on this board are not only pessimistic, but almost upset the market is rallying; i guess i don't understand negative comments about a positive market.


the market has never really been predictable, nor does it care if you think it's overvalued...so why not just enjoy the ride?

As long as you are prepared to "enjoy the ride" irrespectivel of whether it is sharply up or sharply down, then by all means go for it.

 

[lalanian6]

As long as you are prepared to "enjoy the ride" irrespectivel of whether it is sharply up or sharply down, then by all means go for it.


Oh, I am; thanks.

 

[gerntz]

As long as you are prepared to "enjoy the ride" irrespectivel of whether it is sharply up or sharply down, then by all means go for it.

As a long timeframe investor, that's what I do and have been doing for over 20 years. I'll let the market timers time. Rarely change anything, including at all this year. Down <3% since Feb. Works for me I think, but I don't know the future.

 

[brewer12345]

If the market continues to go [mod edit] up, I will probably start accumulating a position in gold, especially as the money printing continues. Can't think of a better way to avoid the eventual crack up.

 

[Dtail]

If the market continues to go [mod edit] up, I will probably start accumulating a position in gold, especially as the money printing continues. Can't think of a better way to avoid the eventual crack up.

Could be a short deflationary cycle before the inflation cycle where long LTreas. could work in a possible negative yield scenario.
Thoughts?

 

[gerntz]

If the market continues to go [mod edit] up, I will probably start accumulating a position in gold, especially as the money printing continues. Can't think of a better way to avoid the eventual crack up.

Already there with 8-10% in Au ETF's and have been - as a long time frame investor.

 

[Toocold]

However you want to frame it, the bottom line is they are propping up the stock market. It is what it is.

Would you have preferred that they didn't provide backup when no banks were underwriting any loans in March, so all the companies who couldn't generate any income and didn't have enough cash reserves to declare bankruptcy so we go into a depression? Would that have made you feel better? What policies would you have pursued if you were in their situation?

As long as you are prepared to "enjoy the ride" irrespectivel of whether it is sharply up or sharply down, then by all means go for it.

That's why portfolio and risk management are important.

 

[brewer12345]

Could be a short deflationary cycle before the inflation cycle where long LTreas. could work in a possible negative yield scenario.
Thoughts?

Hard to buy long term treasuries in perhaps the most highly manipulated of the markets. I will say that at some point I will get tired of paying 3.5 percent on a small mortgage when my higher rate CDs mature.

 

[Toocold]

I wonder? Oh well, for me it seems like it is always time to wait and do nothing.
That's good because I don't know enough about the market to do anything else.

The best investing strategy ever. Buy the market and wait...

 

[USGrant1962]

However you want to frame it, the bottom line is they are propping up the stock market. It is what it is.

The Fed is propping up the economy, the market is along for the ride.