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Do you think Dow 18,000 was the bottom?
Old 04-02-2020, 02:25 PM   #1
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Do you think Dow 18,000 was the bottom?

What do you think?
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Old 04-02-2020, 02:28 PM   #2
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No, but what do I know?
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Old 04-02-2020, 02:29 PM   #3
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I think we will know the answer by the end of December - maybe earlier.
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Old 04-02-2020, 02:32 PM   #4
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Hopeful me says yes, practical me says no.
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Old 04-02-2020, 02:36 PM   #5
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I don't think so.

I think market reaction to unemployment figures this week will be telling. Are those priced in at the current valuation-we're about to find out.
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Old 04-02-2020, 02:37 PM   #6
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Earnings season is coming....it's going to be ugly. (wait until after Apple reports they only sold 1/3 the iPhones they planned to.)
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Old 04-02-2020, 02:38 PM   #7
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the way the market moved lately and bonds are now stabilized, yes.
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Old 04-02-2020, 02:43 PM   #8
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Among a handful of other drivers, I think a lot comes down to Italy.

If they can really get the lid on it and restart their economy, then yes, I think we've put in a bottom. Its a leading indicator.

If they can't get it under control in the next 10 days, then we may take another down leg as there isn't a viable model for other western economies to follow.
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Old 04-02-2020, 02:48 PM   #9
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Is the U.S. even selling any cars? Nobody is driving!
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Old 04-02-2020, 02:56 PM   #10
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When we start talking about the significant decline in new infections, and a real date to reopen the country, I would expect to see a rebound in the market. But until that happens I would not be at all surprised if it continues to go down a few thousand more points.
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Old 04-02-2020, 03:03 PM   #11
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Sadly, the worst is yet to come with a mounting death toll.
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Old 04-02-2020, 03:27 PM   #12
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I don't think anyone can say with certainty where the bottom is. Of course it depends a lot on how much worse things get and how much of that is already priced in. I fear there is still some possible downside that isn't priced in yet because we can't know how bad it can get. How much downside is anyone's guess.

IMO the best we can do is position our portfolio where one thinks best keeping in mind there are a lot of unknowns still to be answered. Time will answer all, but I don't see how we can know much before that point. A lot is still to be determined.
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Old 04-02-2020, 03:31 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Closet_Gamer View Post
Among a handful of other drivers, I think a lot comes down to Italy.

If they can really get the lid on it and restart their economy, then yes, I think we've put in a bottom. Its a leading indicator.

If they can't get it under control in the next 10 days, then we may take another down leg as there isn't a viable model for other western economies to follow.
10 days? If that is your timeline, abandon all hope.
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Old 04-02-2020, 04:08 PM   #14
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I’m used to seeing a W shape in big bear markets - i.e. a retest of the prior low. Sometimes it goes lower, sometimes it doesn’t. The process usually takes a while.
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Old 04-02-2020, 04:36 PM   #15
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Not to get the novel COVID-19 is more important now then trying to time the market.
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Old 04-02-2020, 05:16 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FANOFJESUS View Post
What do you think?
Maybe, maybe not.

Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
I think we will know the answer by the end of December - maybe earlier.
Yes. There will come a point when the question is easily answered by looking at the rear-view mirror. Looking through the windshield, no so much.
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Old 04-02-2020, 05:18 PM   #17
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I don't know about the market bottom
but we haven't reached the bottom of bad news yet.

A lot of people misunderstand that they only need to lock down for 14 days (the quarantine period from the cruiseship refugees). Restaurants/businesses were originally told "early April". When people and businesses realize its going to be May/June... or when the 2nd wave comes around... or a few more crazies try to ram ships with a freight train (I almost misspelled fright train) things could get a little weird.


The problem with the fed printing and buying securities is there is no longer any price discovery. Bad news? Print more! So who knows how long that works... until it doesn't.
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Old 04-02-2020, 05:25 PM   #18
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I will let you know in about 3 weeks, My crystal ball cracked, so I am making another one with a 3 D printer. Its a slow process, even with the printer going 24 / 7.
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Old 04-02-2020, 05:57 PM   #19
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If the models that show the peak deaths in NYC in two weeks are correct (see my sig) then around that time may be the bottom. And likely lower than now.
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Old 04-02-2020, 05:59 PM   #20
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We aren’t bending the curve yet. Lots more bad news to come.
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