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Old 02-09-2018, 06:18 AM   #421
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2017 BMW M760i Xdrive .... but the week's not over.

If the average bear is 30% drop with 22 months to recover then entry point around 2200. Cash still on sideline, not selling anything as I don't hit RMD for 4+ more years
In 1978, I visited a BMW showroom. The 7-series was about $40K then. I thought when I got out of graduate school, I might get one. And when I started my real job, that first year I made less than $23K. So, of course it was just a pipe dream.

Then, I got married, bought a home, had kids. Instead of fancy cars, I bought new a Chrysler Voyager, the first ever minivan, to haul my first born. My interest in cars waned with responsibility of a family man. It never came back, even in my middle-age crisis.

Just now checked. The price of a 7-series is still about the same ratio to the starting salary of a professional job with a graduate degree.

Here's a photo of the car.

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Old 02-09-2018, 06:24 AM   #422
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Back on the market, I saw that the Shenzhen index is in bear country (20% down).

Yet, it has not been doing well at all compared to the US market. I checked. In 2015, it was at 18,000. It is at 10,000 now. The Chinese New Year is coming soon. They cannot be very happy.
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Old 02-09-2018, 06:26 AM   #423
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That's a bit of a myth. The tax law will increase the federal debt from ~20.5T to ~23T per CBO, but that is only a 7.3% increase over 10 years, or 0.73%/year. Hardly enough to effect the macroeconomic climate.
However, interest rates are rising at the same time...0.75% in 2017, and forecast another 0.75% in 2018. The debt may "only" go up 0.73%/year (just from the tax law - it will go up more than that with the budget being proposed), but the annual debt service will be going up even more than that.

https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/19/inte...ine-items.html

You cannot borrow your way out of this. What happens when an individual decides that his solution to his financial problems is to borrow even more ... as interest rates are rising? Can't pay off or pay down the credit card? No problem, just charge even more and continue making the minimum payment.
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Old 02-09-2018, 06:47 AM   #424
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In 1978, I visited a BMW showroom. The 7-series was about $40K then. I thought when I got out of graduate school, I might get one. And when I started my real job, that first year I made less than $23K. So, of course it was just a pipe dream.

Then, I got married, bought a home, had kids. Instead of fancy cars, I bought new a Chrysler Voyager, the first ever minivan, to haul my first born. My interest in cars waned with responsibility of a family man. It never came back, even in my middle-age crisis.

Just now checked. The price of a 7-series is still about the same ratio to the starting salary of a professional job with a graduate degree.

Here's a photo of the car.

In 1983, DW and talked about buying a Mercedes 450SEL once I had $100,000 saved in my investment plan at Megacorp. Never did.

We have 3 vehicles now, and you couldn't get $30,000 for the lot of them. s the millionaires next door, we like driving under the radar.
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Old 02-09-2018, 06:55 AM   #425
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...Kudos to all who rebalanced and super kud's to those who "won the game" and adopted a more conservative AA
Come to think of it, rebalancing is something one does to feel good, but does it make much difference?

Take my case. In mid-January, due to option call assignment, I lowered my stock AA from 75% down to 60%. At this point, the market is down 10% from the top. That 15% in cash saves me 1.5% of loss. Surely, it helps, but it is small compared to the total drop.

Now, I do not say one should get all out. Nobody is that smart to do that right consistently.

So, I will continue to do what I do, but it is more for my psychology than anything. One has to take the bad with the good when investing, and there's no way around it.
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Old 02-09-2018, 07:03 AM   #426
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In 1983, DW and talked about buying a Mercedes 450SEL once I had $100,000 saved in my investment plan at Megacorp. Never did.

We have 3 vehicles now, and you couldn't get $30,000 for the lot of them. s the millionaires next door, we like driving under the radar.
Yesterday, to take my mind off the market I washed my wife's Nissan SUV. It's 2003, but has only 27K miles on the odometer because she has not been driving it much since she ER'ed in 2005. It's been garaged, and the exterior was still darn good. I even waxed it.

I washed my cars about once a year. That car, being garaged, gets washed the least. I needed to clean the garage, so parked it outside for a while and it got rained on.

Anyway, it now looks almost spanking new. It's gonna last me another 20 years.
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Old 02-09-2018, 07:23 AM   #427
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I'm down a Lamborghini Huracan plus some. That is from February 1st, 2018 closing till February 8th, 2018. I don't like to look at these times but this car thing seemed fun. I'm not a car person and can't tell one car from the other. LOL I do have pickups and like them and they also are get very expensive these days.
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Old 02-09-2018, 07:37 AM   #428
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I think rebalancing is something one does to maintain a specific risk profile in the portfolio. It does not feel good, because it involves selling assets that have performed well to buy assets that have not. Behaviorally, it is contrary to one's instincts, so it feels bad, but it is a critical success factor for portfolio survival.

How does it help to continually quantify the current loss in value? Doesn't this just open the door to reacting in some way that is not part of the plan and becoming part of the herd?
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Old 02-09-2018, 07:44 AM   #429
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... I'm not a car person and can't tell one car from the other...
Me neither. I have to see a car's emblem, or at least its distinctive grill design to know what make it is.

However, people like you and me are in the minority. Twice, when I was standing outside with my son and his Audi S4, neighbors asked if I got a new car. Because they were impressed, I had to go look up the price. My son did not want to tell us the price, because he was afraid we would tell him he was wasting money. My wife did not want him to spend that money, but I told her that it would not bankrupt him so just let it be. Now that he has bought a house, he spent more time with that and his car is dirtier than mine.

About the Audi S4, my son fell in love with this car because he drove his cousin's S4. My nephew's car is older and had a V8. My son's is newer and has a turbocharged V6. See how much I learned from him about Audi cars?

Here's a funny thing. One Christmas, I hosted a big family dinner. I have nieces and nephews ranging in age from 40 down to 10. My youngest nephew, upon seeing his older cousin's car, immediately asked whose car that was. How could a kid that young know much more about cars than I do?
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Old 02-09-2018, 07:46 AM   #430
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I am down about 3 Corollas in the last week or so, and back to where I was in September of 2017. I remain well within my AA bands so no rebalancing. I am 46/54 in the IRA and a little more bond-heavy in my taxable account.
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Old 02-09-2018, 07:50 AM   #431
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I think rebalancing is something one does to maintain a specific risk profile in the portfolio. It does not feel good, because it involves selling assets that have performed well to buy assets that have not. Behaviorally, it is contrary to one's instincts, so it feels bad, but it is a critical success factor for portfolio survival.

How does it help to continually quantify the current loss in value? Doesn't this just open the door to reacting in some way that is not part of the plan and becoming part of the herd?
In the long run, stocks have been proven to outperform other assets. So, why not be 100% and call it quit?

Obviously, one needs to have some money set aside for rainy days. But instead of having a certain percentage in cash, how about having a certain dollar amount that is tied to one's needs. Or if one has plenty of assets, there's no need for any cash.

I am thinking of an argument for a higher stock AA, not lower.

PS. There are posters who are not in the accumulation phase yet are 100% in stock.
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Old 02-09-2018, 07:57 AM   #432
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I had 80k in 2008 plus pension. I still have pension but have 'lost' 150k this month. Who posted "goes up like an escalator, down like an elevator" ?

FWIW: I did return to work for 3 yrs & invest 6k a yr
That's a good pension. Did you work for CoCo County?
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Old 02-09-2018, 07:58 AM   #433
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I am also not a car person .In 2008-2009 downturn I lost equivalent to an ocean view condo .I hope that puts this down cycle into perspective .
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Old 02-09-2018, 08:02 AM   #434
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Talk about loss, in 2002 recession, I was down $700K in today's dollars. And my startup business was folding.

Yes. Been there, done that. Still do not want to go through it again, but that's part of the "fun".

PS. Just looked up my diary. It's $704,246 to be exact, from the top at 2000/03/24 to 2002/10/09. Told you I can look up to the dollar how much I had in investable accounts at any time in the past.
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Old 02-09-2018, 08:04 AM   #435
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I would like to see how many Honda Accords I could of bought with what I lost so far but my numbers aren't all in yet. I don't expect everything tonight yet.

On an earlier post I did on this thread, I meant to say February 1st, 2018 was the date I went from. I believe I said Jan. 2018 for the high but I meant February 1st, 2018. I'm not sure Feb. 1st was actually the high for this year so far but that was the date I compared my losses from to the present time.
January 18th for me, although it bounced around that amount for several days. Down 3x Honda Accords so far.
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Old 02-09-2018, 08:06 AM   #436
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Let me just say this:
If I hadn't found this forum 12 years ago I'd be "***** bricks" right now.
I would have sold everything in 2008, just gotten up the nerve to get back in last year and by now I'd be out looking for a job! Or at least ordering a case of Pepto and buying CDs

I've learned so much from you folks and hope that (despite some idiotic posts from time to time on my part) I've helped others here too.

Everyone here --myself included--is rightfully calm during this recent downdraft thanks to what I've learned here.

Just wanted to once again, recognize the "wisdom of the crowd".
+1

I'll be looking for an entery at 23000 or so DOW
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Old 02-09-2018, 08:08 AM   #437
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Everyone here --myself included--is rightfully calm during this recent downdraft thanks to what I've learned here.
Calm is good, complacency can be dangerous.

A few days ago I posted to a thread that was celebrating stocks "being on sale". I posted that it really depends on what one means by "on sale". Cheaper than days before definitely, but CHEAP? that is TBD and will remain such for a while. The OP got mildly on my case about this opinion.

I have no idea what will happen, but stocks on sale? Not to this cheap-ass shopper. I do have dry powder, but not for deployment here or anywhere near to here.

Ha
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Old 02-09-2018, 08:10 AM   #438
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My rentals have gone up in value over the last 30 days, now that we are in the spring buying market. There is no inventory in most of the Phoenix area. If I marked to market in Personal Capital, I would be net up for 2018.

That won't last, of course. Once deals start falling apart because of the stock market and buyers get cold feet, the real estate market will stall and, if the stock market stays down or drops further, decline.

On the paper side, in the inherited IRA, I'm down the cost of a fully loaded Lexus RX 450h. Which is now a grossly overpriced vehicle anyway. Maybe the RMD will go down for 2019.
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Old 02-09-2018, 08:13 AM   #439
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Calm is good, complacency can be dangerous.

A few days ago I posted to a thread that was celebrating stocks "being on sale". I posted that it really depends on what one means by "on sale". Cheaper than days before definitely, but CHEAP? that is TBD and will remain such for a while. The OP got mildly on my case about this opinion.

I have no idea what will happen, but stocks on sale? Not to this cheap-ass shopper. I do have dry powder, but not for deployment here or anywhere near to here.

Ha
With interest rate and inflation rising, say hello to P/E contraction. Shiller and Bogle will say "Told ya so".

PS. I am somewhat a risk taker, so may play a bit for the bounce. Or not.
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Old 02-09-2018, 09:35 AM   #440
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I differ. This is a lot more exciting than the Superbowl yesterday...
How can that be?--there's so much more at stake in a Superbowl game.
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