Does anyone do this? Is it a legit consideration?
Say I'm pondering buying a basic car, such as a new Toyota Corolla, for about $24,000. Edmunds.com has a True Cost to Own estimator that factors in price paid, depreciation, fuel, insurance, maintenance, repairs, and financing for five years.
But what if I pay cash and keep the car for a long time? Either way, shouldn't I consider the forgone investment gains of the initial $24,000 plus all of the cumulative costs over time?
Using this compound interest calculator:
https://www.investor.gov/financial-tools-calculators/calculators/compound-interest-calculator
Initial Investment
Here I plug in $24,000, the amount that I would have left invested in the market if I did not buy the car.
Monthly Contribution
Here I'm plugging in $350, about what I would expect to pay each month for fuel, parking, insurance, maintenance, and repairs. Very rough estimate.
Length of Time in Years
Here I'm saying (optimistically) 20 years because I would drive this car maybe 4,000 to 5,000 miles per year, probably even less. I'm 56 and could imagine a good car getting me to 76.
Estimated Interest Rate
For decades my portfolio has returned, on average, more than 9% per year. So here I enter 9% (optimistically) to represent what my initial cash layout plus monthly costs over time would appreciate to in 20 years if I invested the money instead of buying the car.
For simplicity, I'm leaving the "interest rate variance range" blank.
Result
At the end, I click Calculate and get almost $350,000, which is more than $17,000 per year — the "true" cost of buying a $24,000 car and driving it lightly for 20 years instead of investing the same money in the market.
This is all hypothetical. I have not owned a car in more than a decade, and each time I get to thinking about having one again, the numbers scare me away. I don't need a car, as I live centrally and walk most places. Last year I spent about $300 on local buses, trains, and taxis.
But someday I might need or even just want a car, yet the math above seems to indicate that I'd be better off simply taking more taxis and buses. I can do a lot of that for 17 grand a year.
Granted, there are many places where trains and buses don't go and where taxis would be impractical. I avoid those places, but again this is all hypothetical for now.
The same calculation could be done for anything — a vacation house, a camper van, a boat. I'm just curious whether any of you consider this and make decisions based on opportunity cost.
Perhaps the bigger story is that my portfolio can and will generate far more than enough to handle such an expenditure. It's just food for thought to consider major purchases this way.
I guess it comes down to whether I'd rather have the freedom (and the hassles) of a car, or have the money in the graveyard when I'm gone.
Say I'm pondering buying a basic car, such as a new Toyota Corolla, for about $24,000. Edmunds.com has a True Cost to Own estimator that factors in price paid, depreciation, fuel, insurance, maintenance, repairs, and financing for five years.
But what if I pay cash and keep the car for a long time? Either way, shouldn't I consider the forgone investment gains of the initial $24,000 plus all of the cumulative costs over time?
Using this compound interest calculator:
https://www.investor.gov/financial-tools-calculators/calculators/compound-interest-calculator
Initial Investment
Here I plug in $24,000, the amount that I would have left invested in the market if I did not buy the car.
Monthly Contribution
Here I'm plugging in $350, about what I would expect to pay each month for fuel, parking, insurance, maintenance, and repairs. Very rough estimate.
Length of Time in Years
Here I'm saying (optimistically) 20 years because I would drive this car maybe 4,000 to 5,000 miles per year, probably even less. I'm 56 and could imagine a good car getting me to 76.
Estimated Interest Rate
For decades my portfolio has returned, on average, more than 9% per year. So here I enter 9% (optimistically) to represent what my initial cash layout plus monthly costs over time would appreciate to in 20 years if I invested the money instead of buying the car.
For simplicity, I'm leaving the "interest rate variance range" blank.
Result
At the end, I click Calculate and get almost $350,000, which is more than $17,000 per year — the "true" cost of buying a $24,000 car and driving it lightly for 20 years instead of investing the same money in the market.
This is all hypothetical. I have not owned a car in more than a decade, and each time I get to thinking about having one again, the numbers scare me away. I don't need a car, as I live centrally and walk most places. Last year I spent about $300 on local buses, trains, and taxis.
But someday I might need or even just want a car, yet the math above seems to indicate that I'd be better off simply taking more taxis and buses. I can do a lot of that for 17 grand a year.
Granted, there are many places where trains and buses don't go and where taxis would be impractical. I avoid those places, but again this is all hypothetical for now.
The same calculation could be done for anything — a vacation house, a camper van, a boat. I'm just curious whether any of you consider this and make decisions based on opportunity cost.
Perhaps the bigger story is that my portfolio can and will generate far more than enough to handle such an expenditure. It's just food for thought to consider major purchases this way.
I guess it comes down to whether I'd rather have the freedom (and the hassles) of a car, or have the money in the graveyard when I'm gone.
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