Investing in this market

[Koolau]

Order a model Y or Model S for comfort. The new Civics are nice.

He suggested buying a Honda Civic because Electric vehicles are too expensive.
I pointed out that the average size American does not fit comfortably in a Honda Civic. Americans are kind of large and like bigger vehicles for comfort.

Many people are buying electric vehicles to support the movement.
Because they can.

Hmm, I'm kinda large and I fit fine in a Civic. Those Honda people (not to mention Toyota and others) have figured out how to make it small on the outside and big on the inside. Tesla (only been in a Mod. 3) is difficult for me to get into and out of. I have to bend in ways I no longer bend. Once inside, the fit is just okay as is the ride - not as good as a Civic IMHO but YMMV.

 

[NW-Bound]

... There will be black outs - exasperated by car charging. Sorry, but that has to be true. It's true for water pressure at Super Bowl commercial time so it's true for the electrical grid with folks getting home from w*rk wanting to plug in their cars. YMMV

People are selfish. They even fought for TP during COVID breakout.

YouTube still has several newscast videos on this.

 

[aja8888]

Range is simply a matter of more batteries (and beefing up the car to carry them - and then adding more batteries to haul the extra beef and so on.)

YMMV

This is an absolutely wrong concept. Just adding more batteries to either a car or even a model airplane increases the weight significantly and the energy density required to move that weight is not a plus in terms of range. As a matter of fact, it can be a hindrance as the energy of the battery is very low compared to an energy dense hydrocarbon fuel.

Friction to overcome for moving a vehicle also needs to be factored in and adding more batteries increases that too.

 

[Koolau]

Most people have ridiculous size car payments now. Affordability

Somebody will offer electric cars in the 30K range sooner than later.
We are really just getting started. With big 3 now committed.

I see car haulers on the highway all the time now loaded with electric vehicles.
It is pretty amazing.

Again. People will not be charging their cars everyday. Software will help.

And really if Electric cars are the kick in the ass that America needs to improve the power grid we should all celebrate.

We have been hearing about our weak power grid for a long time.

I don't think people are comprehending how a $25000 price range electric car is going to change things. It's going to happen fast.

Once again, I'll ignore most of this since I've answered the serious issues and not sure what else is serious. One thing I'll address is the contention that EVs are the K-I-T-A that we need to improve the grid. If forest fires in Cali and rolling black outs this summer aren't enough (and, they are not) adding EVs won't help. That's like (some) suggesting that high gas prices are GOOD because they will "help" us all go green - which is like saying a gun in the back is good 'cause it makes you move faster (think of the cardio!) You're welcome to your opinion as YMMV.

 

[GenXguy]

Most people have ridiculous size car payments now. Affordability

Somebody will offer electric cars in the 30K range sooner than later.

It's going to happen fast.

Many people can't afford car payments and are driving old cars. This forum is not a good representation of the public as a whole. Don't forget to add on the price of a replacement battery and tax to the $30K price tag. It's going to take years before even half the cars on the road are electric.

The electric grid is already being "improved" as they say, yet they are shutting down the old plants faster than the new methods can make up the difference, plus demand is already increasing.

 

[Koolau]

This is an absolutely wrong concept. Just adding more batteries to either a car or even a model airplane increases the weight significantly and the energy density required to move that weight is not a plus in terms of range. As a matter of fact, it can be a hindrance as the energy of the battery is very low compared to an energy dense hydrocarbon fuel.

Friction to overcome for moving a vehicle also needs to be factored in and adding more batteries increases that too.

I'm a bit more subtle than you, but I was actually saying exactly the same thing you were. If I'd never addressed this before, I could see you missing it.

Now, having said that, adding weight to a car (NOT an airplane because LIFT is key) - while theoretically detrimental to mileage due to increased rolling resistance - is not a huge deal in steady state driving (very minor at constant speed). Where weight is a big issue is in acceleration. But EVs do have the amazing ability to make some (maybe much) of that up since they recharge their batteries during deceleration. Weight is a killer to standard vehicles - not nearly as much in EVs. BUT, you (and I) are both correct that adding batteries is not likely to get us to 1000 mile range. (Heh, heh, I would add that the sheer volume of batteries would take up half the car!)

Battery improvements will help, but there is a theoretical limit to battery efficiency, not to mention the ability to get charge in and out. It's complicated so YMMV.

 

[OldShooter]

Wow. Childs garden of misinformation.

Adding batteries to a car is probably not the answer to range. Billions are being spent to find battery designs that with improved energy density (per volume and per weight) and which, BTW, will not have a tendency to burn cars and cargo ships.

The main energy loss when driving is aerodynamic drag, not friction. Starting up is done by converting stored energy in the car into kinetic energy. Very little friction there either. Kinetic energy is lost when slowing or stopping, though regenerative braking helps. The reason that most of the grocery-getters look like jelly beans and weigh about the same is that every designer has the same wind tunnel data and the same design tradeoffs. There is very little undiscovered magic in this area.

No amount of technology or software can miniaturize the watt. It is watts that are needed to move cars and those watts will come mostly from the grid. The demand for those watts will, IMO, come much faster than technical means can help by nibbling at the margin. IMO the best method to cushion the effects on the grid is through pricing schemes.

 

[NW-Bound]

... IMO the best method to cushion the effects on the grid is through pricing schemes.

It will be the de facto means of throttling demand. Charge it more, then people will use less. It's the only way to prevent blackouts, which stinks to high heaven.

Just like higher prices for gasoline now. Way better than rationing by coupons, or long lines at the pump.

The fall out is that rich people do not need to and will not cut back. They will continue to fly personal jets and take rocket rides. That's life.

 

[Koolau]

Wow. Childs garden of misinformation.

Adding batteries to a car is probably not the answer to range. Billions are being spent to find battery designs that with improved energy density (per volume and per weight) and which, BTW, will not have a tendency to burn cars and cargo ships.

The main energy loss when driving is aerodynamic drag, not friction. Starting up is done by converting stored energy in the car into kinetic energy. Very little friction there either. Kinetic energy is lost when slowing or stopping, though regenerative braking helps. The reason that most of the grocery-getters look like jelly beans and weigh about the same is that every designer has the same wind tunnel data and the same design tradeoffs. There is very little undiscovered magic in this area.

No amount of technology or software can miniaturize the watt. It is watts that are needed to move cars and those watts will come mostly from the grid. The demand for those watts will, IMO, come much faster than technical means can help by nibbling at the margin. IMO the best method to cushion the effects on the grid is through pricing schemes.

Choir Director Instructions:

The Choir will now sing: Amen

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

In theory, every mile requires some charge time, so in aggregate, you can't separate out the daily chargers and the occasional chargers.

This made me curious, so some quick googling/back of envelope calcs:
Average EV uses 0.346kWh per mile
Typical charging efficiency: 85%?
Car mileage (USA) per year: 14,263 or 2.5 Trillion
So (0.346kWH / .85) * 2.5 Trillion .40706 * 2.5 Trillion = 1017647058823.529 kWh (1.018 trillion kWh)

In 2021, net electrical generation in the USA was 4.1 trillion

Thus, to power all would require a 25% increase in electrical generation & transmission capacity.

ETA: Corrections welcome, I did this very quickly.

 

[REWahoo]

This made me curious, so some quick googling/back of envelope calcs:
Average EV uses 0.346kWh per mile
Typical charging efficiency: 85%?
Car mileage (USA) per year: 14,263 or 2.5 Trillion
So (0.346kWH / .85) * 2.5 Trillion .40706 * 2.5 Trillion = 1017647058823.529 kWh (1.018 trillion kWh)

In 2021, net electrical generation in the USA was 4.1 trillion

Thus, to power all would require a 25% increase in electrical generation & transmission capacity.

ETA: Corrections welcome, I did this very quickly.

What you left out was the lopsided daytime demand on current generation and transmission capacity. Many/most EVs are/will be charged at night when demand falls significantly.* This will reduce the added capacity needed, but I have no idea how to forecast the actual need.

* As an example, I plan to buy an EV and charge it only between 11pm and 6am when my electric rates drop to $0.07 kWh.

 

[Markola]

OP: If my needs were covered and I had extra cash to invest for two decades, like you, I’d put it all in an S&P 500 index fund and go live my life. In your case, time in the market beats timing the market, including dollar-cost-averaging.

 

[NW-Bound]

What you left out was the lopsided daytime demand on current generation and transmission capacity. Many/most EVs are/will be charged at night when demand falls significantly.* This will reduce the added capacity needed, but I have no idea how to forecast the actual need.

* As an example, I plan to buy an EV and charge it only between 11pm and 6am when my electric rates drop to $0.07 kWh.

It is true that night charging, if there's a way to enforce it, will much reduce load on the grid. No supercharging during the day, unless there's excess solar power.

However, there's no solar generation at night, so unless you have wind power, that power has to come from thermal plants, or nuclear power.

Now, one can make the case that a thermal plant running on nat gas is still better than ICE cars running on gasoline. However, it's not renewable, nor carbon free.


PS. The Europeans are more enlightened than people give them credit for. In a YouTube video that I shared recently, a Brit living in Portugal described how highway chargers billed according to the real-time electric generation on the grid. When there's excess wind power, it's cheap. Else, you have to pay more. If you don't like it, don't drive and take the bus.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

What you left out was the lopsided daytime demand on current generation and transmission capacity. Many/most EVs are/will be charged at night when demand falls significantly.* This will reduce the added capacity needed, but I have no idea how to forecast the actual need.

* As an example, I plan to buy an EV and charge it only between 11pm and 6am when my electric rates drop to $0.07 kWh.

Good point. Does anyone know how much (% wise) the overall electrical generation and transmission network has during off-peak times?

 

[REWahoo]

It is true that night charging, if there's a way to enforce it, will much reduce load on the grid. No supercharging during the day, unless there's excess solar power.

However, there's no solar generation at night, so unless you have wind power, that power has to come from thermal plants, or nuclear power.

Made me look.

This shows the current generating source for the TX grid. Wind power is at 32%, up from 23% in 2020. Plus, I understand wind generation drops off during the heat of the day in summer vs what is generated at night. Please correct me if that's not the case.

 

[NW-Bound]

Made me look.

This shows the current generating source for the TX grid. Wind power is at 32%, up from 23% in 2020. Plus, I understand wind generation drops off during the heat of the day in summer vs what is generated at night. Please correct me if that's not the case.

Texas has lots of wind power, and that's a fact. It's definitely better to have wind power in addition to solar, for diversity.

However, Germany has had winter days when both solar and wind powers are down to near nothing. Hence, they are now keeping more coal-burning plants maintained, and with a stockpile of coal nearby.

I don't know about the weather in Texas to know if the wind there is more constant and reliable.

 

[purplesky]

I never know if you are serious. I'll just let your first two statements go, assuming they were tongue in cheek.

Range is simply a matter of more batteries (and beefing up the car to carry them - and then adding more batteries to haul the extra beef and so on.)

The issue about folks not needing to charge every day may be true. A 300 mile range might mean you could go a week without charging, but who's gonna wait and have to spend 12 hours at home or 35 minutes at a fast charge when they can charge at home every day for an hour or two while their car is not in use?

Also, not everyone will charge every day, but every day, lots of folks will charge. In theory, every mile requires some charge time, so in aggregate, you can't separate out the daily chargers and the occasional chargers. It all comes out the same. Some folks fill their tanks when they drop below 1/2 others wait until their on fumes. The same amount of fuel is pumped over a given time.

I agree that - given a clean sheet of paper and looking ahead to electric cars, we could design an efficient way to charge car batteries to minimize black outs (rolling electrical charging of cars instead of rolling black outs - very nice but we didn't do that and that would take a lot of buy in from electricity providers as well as the gummint regulators as well as the charging public. (I like that. THE CHARGING PUBLIC - I hereby claim copyright on that.)

So, while not insurmountable, the issues surrounding the increasing number of EVs needing to be charged and the decreasing production of electricity and the intermittent replacement of said electricity by fickle winds and photons, means it won't be easy and more importantly it won't be quick. There will be black outs - exasperated by car charging. Sorry, but that has to be true. It's true for water pressure at Super Bowl commercial time so it's true for the electrical grid with folks getting home from w*rk wanting to plug in their cars. YMMV

Yes I am serious about the USA finally upgrading the power grid.

In 3 to 5 years car buyers will have a choice. Buy an electric car or buy a hybrid gas car.

Most everyone will choose the electric options like the Chevy Silverado or Ford F150 lightning.

In March I went on a 5 week snowboarding trip in Wyoming and Montana and Utah and Colorado. Also Moab Utah. In Arches and Canyonlands national park.

I see Teslas everywhere and many at The ski resorts. I see more electric cars every year at the ski resorts. Obviously more in Utah and Colorado. SLC,Denver.

The big oil grip is finally loosening quickly so electric car technology is going to
improve quickly.

The power grid failure talking point assumes technology freezes in time. lol

We are supposedly going back to the moon so I think the USA can figure out a new power grid. lol

 

[purplesky]

Many people can't afford car payments and are driving old cars. This forum is not a good representation of the public as a whole. Don't forget to add on the price of a replacement battery and tax to the $30K price tag. It's going to take years before even half the cars on the road are electric.

The electric grid is already being "improved" as they say, yet they are shutting down the old plants faster than the new methods can make up the difference, plus demand is already increasing.

The slow availability to buy electric cars will definitely buy time to help improve the power grid and charging capability around the USA.

The average car payment now is around $712 per month and I have younger coworkers with $1000 car payments.

If Ford can copy and paste the F150 Lightning and deliver trucks to customers and meet demand in a few years things will move fast.
The F150 Lightning just might be a home run for Ford.

Elon Musk promised a $25,000 Tesla but I guess he is too busy self destructing while buying Twitter and firing SpaceX workers.

 

[OldShooter]

... In March I went on a 5 week snowboarding trip in Wyoming and Montana and Utah and Colorado. Also Moab Utah. In Arches and Canyonlands national park.

I see Teslas everywhere and many at The ski resorts. I see more electric cars every year at the ski resorts. Obviously more in Utah and Colorado. SLC,Denver. ...

Obviously a superior research method to checking actual data.

... The big oil grip is finally loosening quickly so electric car technology is going to improve quickly. ...

So Big Oil has somehow been suppressing electric car technology and now that suppression is ending?

 

[purplesky]

Obviously a superior research method to checking actual data.

So Big Oil has somehow been suppressing electric car technology and now that suppression is ending?

Yes driving through Arches national park and seeing many Teslas in the park is wild to see. Just 10 years ago there were probably just a handful of Teslas driving in Moab. A Real world Observation method of collecting data.


Dude. Follow the Big oil money. We cannot talk about it in this forum.

You could Google it. But you are a smart guy and know exactly how the game is played.

I just think this is a fascinating time in the world for transportation.

 

[Koolau]

Many people can't afford car payments and are driving old cars. This forum is not a good representation of the public as a whole. Don't forget to add on the price of a replacement battery and tax to the $30K price tag. It's going to take years before even half the cars on the road are electric.

The electric grid is already being "improved" as they say, yet they are shutting down the old plants faster than the new methods can make up the difference, plus demand is already increasing.

I'm sure there are some improvements to the grid, but as long as whole stretches of high tension lines have to be shut down when the wind blows to protect forests, I'd say we've got a lot of work to do - and that's not even to enable charging of millions of EVs. You're right that it's problematic to shut down "stable" producers of electricity (like old coal and nuke plants) before replacements (that are stable) can be put in place.

By the way, my youngest car is 10 years old and my other car is 22 years old. My plan (who knows if it will work out) is to never buy another car. Together, the two cars have just less than 200K (total) on the OD. So, my plan just might work. One thing I CAN assure you: I will NEVER have another car payment (unless it's a tactical move to save money.) YMMV

 

[Koolau]

This made me curious, so some quick googling/back of envelope calcs:
Average EV uses 0.346kWh per mile
Typical charging efficiency: 85%?
Car mileage (USA) per year: 14,263 or 2.5 Trillion
So (0.346kWH / .85) * 2.5 Trillion .40706 * 2.5 Trillion = 1017647058823.529 kWh (1.018 trillion kWh)

In 2021, net electrical generation in the USA was 4.1 trillion

Thus, to power all would require a 25% increase in electrical generation & transmission capacity.

ETA: Corrections welcome, I did this very quickly.

Okay, check MY math (and hold my beer.):

{1 Trillion kWh/year divided by (365 days X 24hr/day)}/500000KW/coal fired plant = 228 new coal fired plants to recharge all the USA vehicles. How we transmit that much extra electricity in our fragile grid, I don't hazard a guess.

Anyone want to translate that to windmills or solar panels, I'll hold YOUR beer.

 

[Koolau]

It is true that night charging, if there's a way to enforce it, will much reduce load on the grid. No supercharging during the day, unless there's excess solar power.

However, there's no solar generation at night, so unless you have wind power, that power has to come from thermal plants, or nuclear power.

Now, one can make the case that a thermal plant running on nat gas is still better than ICE cars running on gasoline. However, it's not renewable, nor carbon free.


PS. The Europeans are more enlightened than people give them credit for. In a YouTube video that I shared recently, a Brit living in Portugal described how highway chargers billed according to the real-time electric generation on the grid. When there's excess wind power, it's cheap. Else, you have to pay more. If you don't like it, don't drive and take the bus.

(Slightly Tongue in Cheek - but not completely)

Wait. What? Europeans are more enlightened than we give them credit for? Germany is in Europe, right? They committed to solar and wind until they figured out that the sun doesn't always shine and the wind doesn't always blow. Enlightened? I guess they are now since they're adding back coal plants.

So, if I understand: The folks in Portugal are screaming along at 100 km/hr after sunset on the freeway and see they are down to 20% charge. They pull over to charge but the wind quit blowing so now they either wait until it starts blowing or pay an astronomical amount to fast charge for the next 200 km. The system might just work in town, but not so much on the open road. YMMV.

 

[Koolau]

Yes I am serious about the USA finally upgrading the power grid.

In 3 to 5 years car buyers will have a choice. Buy an electric car or buy a hybrid gas car.

Most everyone will choose the electric options like the Chevy Silverado or Ford F150 lightning.

In March I went on a 5 week snowboarding trip in Wyoming and Montana and Utah and Colorado. Also Moab Utah. In Arches and Canyonlands national park.

I see Teslas everywhere and many at The ski resorts. I see more electric cars every year at the ski resorts. Obviously more in Utah and Colorado. SLC,Denver.

The big oil grip is finally loosening quickly so electric car technology is going to
improve quickly.

The power grid failure talking point assumes technology freezes in time. lol

We are supposedly going back to the moon so I think the USA can figure out a new power grid. lol

We haven't gone back to the moon yet and we haven't fixed the fragile grid to handle (maybe) 25% more electricity. Which do you think is the bigger (more expensive) undertaking? I'd vote for the grid being more expensive since we already know how to go to the moon. We did it with 1960's technology. SpaceX could probably do it if we asked nicely (and gave them a bunch of money.)

 

[Koolau]

Yes driving through Arches national park and seeing many Teslas in the park is wild to see. Just 10 years ago there were probably just a handful of Teslas driving in Moab. A Real world Observation method of collecting data.


Dude. Follow the Big oil money. We cannot talk about it in this forum.

You could Google it. But you are a smart guy and know exactly how the game is played.

I just think this is a fascinating time in the world for transportation.

Completely agree that transpo is a fascinating subject. Fun as it is, I don't think we'll improve transpo because it's fun. We'll do it because we have to.

I think a safer conclusion than "EVs are taking over" is that rich people (who own Teslas) predominate at Moab since it's pricey to travel there and the rich have the money to do it. Probably more new Mercedes and Lexus there than clapped out Fords or even Toyotas but YMMV.