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Old 09-20-2022, 04:05 PM   #321
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Hard to imagine why they would want to show a profit as a loss .... stock is DOWN over 75% YTD. Who benefits??

I would imagine most stocks are down YTD and when a stock price is single digits, 75% is easy to obtain up or down, as oppose to Crypto.

From a legal accounting principle, the legal sales price is the number that has to be used. So if 42% of Opendoor homes are sold below this number (minus sellers fees, closing costs and repairs), then 58% are sold above this number, which is amazing.
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Old 09-21-2022, 06:45 AM   #322
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WaPo has an interesting data analysis today, but behind the paywall.

For those that can access it. https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...table-main-t-5

They analyzed Redfin time on market data for the last 10 years showing the pandemic demand bubble. Then they have a map and table of current housing market "cooling". Bottom line is the Boston-DC-Chicago belt is relatively stable, while southern and western regions are cooling and in many popular areas cooling fast.

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“The regional housing markets that got the most overheated have the most to cool off,” said Eric Finnigan, director at John Burns Real Estate Consulting.

Ali Wolf, chief economist at Zonda, said markets that offered an escape and change of scenery during the early pandemic period were a magnet to new residents from around the country. Cities in the Southeast, Southwest, Mountain West, and suburban California were considered pandemic “winners” because of the massive influx of demand. But as interest rates continued to rise, buyers found themselves priced out of the market, Wolf said.
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Old 09-22-2022, 08:56 AM   #323
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I've been looking for a house in the Greater Atlanta area for almost 3 months and the gauging is reversing big time. I saw a property early this week, that I might pay MAYBE $300-310K based on the condition. It was bought by Opendoor in early June for $332K and they made no improvements that I could see. They listed it for $385K in July. When I saw it this week, it was down to $363K. Today, it dropped another $9K. I'm in a good position in this higher interest rate market because after I take out a loan, I'll probably be paying it off in early 2024 when a few CDs mature. I would consider paying cash but so far, it looks like there is still no advantage for me to do that.
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Old 09-23-2022, 08:01 AM   #324
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I have a feeling real estate is going to crash pretty hard soon. The stock market is almost back to pre covid levels (S&P500 at least) and housing should follow that.
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Old 09-23-2022, 08:07 AM   #325
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I have a feeling real estate is going to crash pretty hard soon. The stock market is almost back to pre covid levels (S&P500 at least) and housing should follow that.
My friend, a RE broker said this morning at coffee he has convinced his listing owners to drop prices if they want to sell. And he said no new inventory is becoming available.
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Old 09-23-2022, 10:31 PM   #326
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Well if no new inventory is becoming available, wouldn’t that support prices?
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Old 09-24-2022, 03:54 AM   #327
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The neighbor's house dropped another $6,000 and they changed realtors, removed a wooden playhouse and did some landscaping.
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Old 09-24-2022, 05:26 AM   #328
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Well if no new inventory is becoming available, wouldn’t that support prices?
I don’t know what “no new inventory” meant in the previous comment, but I assume they were referring to new construction. I can only speak to my area. My DH works at a bank in the construction loan department. Builders were cranking out homes as fast as the could and selling them even faster. Sales have slowed significantly and builders aren’t building like they were.
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Old 09-24-2022, 05:42 AM   #329
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MLS data for last 7 days-
Coming Soon (215)
New Listing (1812)
Back On Market (171)
Price Decrease (1439)
Price Increase (62)
Pending (1432)
Closed (1589)
Cancelled (351)
Expired (163)
The Minneapolis and Saint Paul market is chugging along but look at the number of houses that have had a price decrease. (1439). We price houses using comps from the last 6 months but the markets changing fast.
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Canada?
Old 09-29-2022, 11:09 AM   #330
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Canada?

I just recently learned that "most" mortgages in Canada are 5-year variable rate, and that all mortgages are limited to 5 years (i.e. have to be renewed).

Also that in Canada, it has one of the highest real estate as a percentage of GDP figures.

As the Canadian central bank (BOC) raises rates, some of these mortgages (variable) no longer reflect any principal payment (due to increased interest cost) and thus have to have a higher payment amount.

The above, along with the huge run up in prices in Canada over the last n years, sounds like a big-time issue coming down the road (ala USA ARMs of 2008).

Are there any Canadian folks on here that can comment on this?
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Old 09-29-2022, 11:17 AM   #331
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My property in a suburb very close to DC is down about 10% from its peak a few months ago (Zestimate). Doesn't really matter though, as we have no plans to move in the next several years.
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Old 09-29-2022, 11:22 AM   #332
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I just recently learned that "most" mortgages in Canada are 5-year variable rate, and that all mortgages are limited to 5 years (i.e. have to be renewed).

Also that in Canada, it has one of the highest real estate as a percentage of GDP figures.

As the Canadian central bank (BOC) raises rates, some of these mortgages (variable) no longer reflect any principal payment (due to increased interest cost) and thus have to have a higher payment amount.

The above, along with the huge run up in prices in Canada over the last n years, sounds like a big-time issue coming down the road (ala USA ARMs of 2008).

Are there any Canadian folks on here that can comment on this?
No mortgage interest write offs in Canada either. From what I remember all mortgages I had when I was there were 5 years fixed, amortized over 30 years.

What this meant was when you take out a mortgage, you pay the 30 year rate at the time for a fixed period of 5 years. Then after 5 years it was readjusted to the 30 year rate for that time for the next 5 year period.

If it is still the same as when I lived there that is. It may be different now. Regular Adjustables may also be available, I do not know for sure now, so please correct me if I am incorrect.
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Old 09-29-2022, 08:04 PM   #333
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I've been looking for a house in the Greater Atlanta area for almost 3 months and the gauging is reversing big time. I saw a property early this week, that I might pay MAYBE $300-310K based on the condition. It was bought by Opendoor in early June for $332K and they made no improvements that I could see. They listed it for $385K in July. When I saw it this week, it was down to $363K. Today, it dropped another $9K. I'm in a good position in this higher interest rate market because after I take out a loan, I'll probably be paying it off in early 2024 when a few CDs mature. I would consider paying cash but so far, it looks like there is still no advantage for me to do that.
Wait to buy until mid 2023..
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Old 09-29-2022, 08:06 PM   #334
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My friend, a RE broker said this morning at coffee he has convinced his listing owners to drop prices if they want to sell. And he said no new inventory is becoming available.
There is so much misinformation out there right now, the biggest one is that we have a long term supply shortage.
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Old 09-29-2022, 08:07 PM   #335
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I don’t know what “no new inventory” meant in the previous comment, but I assume they were referring to new construction. I can only speak to my area. My DH works at a bank in the construction loan department. Builders were cranking out homes as fast as the could and selling them even faster. Sales have slowed significantly and builders aren’t building like they were.
We are setting records for active permits. The foreclosure moratorium is over and these will start appearing on the market.
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Old 09-29-2022, 08:24 PM   #336
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There is so much misinformation out there right now, the biggest one is that we have a long term supply shortage.
Around here, very few houses are for sale. there are no tract home builders here as it's all built out. RE is local.
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Old 09-29-2022, 08:29 PM   #337
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I've held a sizable amount in an inverse housing fund since March, while these funds are forward looking, it indicates a drop of ~15-20% in the general real estate market. No doubt, we will see a flood of inventory in the near future in certain markets, and ripple effects elsewhere.
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Old 09-30-2022, 06:45 AM   #338
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Related to this are lumber prices. Although they haven't reached pre-pandemic prices, they are now just a "typical inflation factor" above.

2x4x8: 2019-$3, 2021-$8, today-$4

Engineered subfloor 4x8: 2019-$25, 2021-$90, today-$45

It was nice to go to Lowes and Home Depot and see plenty of materials for our upcoming disaster relief trip. At the height of the FOMO building/remodeling insanity, the lumber racks were decimated.
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Old 09-30-2022, 10:08 PM   #339
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No mortgage interest write offs in Canada either. From what I remember all mortgages I had when I was there were 5 years fixed, amortized over 30 years.

What this meant was when you take out a mortgage, you pay the 30 year rate at the time for a fixed period of 5 years. Then after 5 years it was readjusted to the 30 year rate for that time for the next 5 year period.

Sounds similar to a 5/5 ARM. These are common in Europe too.

I’ve always assumed that 30 year fixed rate mortgages are specific to the US.
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