Is the realestate bubble bursting?

In 2008-2012, houses sold well below replacement cost. Building pretty much stopped. Prices can and do drop below the cost to build.

Yes, older houses traditionally sell less than new build cost. Here in Texas it's been that way for decades in many places (until the Californians showed up in Austin.)
 
In 2008-2012, houses sold well below replacement cost. Building pretty much stopped. Prices can and do drop below the cost to build.

Good to know I'm not the only one who remembers that.

Weird market the last few years, but sure looked like a peak to me. There was a different catalyst in the three market cycles I have seen, but the pattern has been similar. The extremes of the curves are the biggest difference I have seen.

Won't know about this cycle until after the fact. If I was doing anything with my house now, I would be selling, renting and not buying for a while. That's my circumstances, others will be different.
 
A mountain house I've always wanted is now up for sale after the new place next door was apparently built to serve as an AirBnB party house.
 
A mountain house I've always wanted is now up for sale after the new place next door was apparently built to serve as an AirBnB party house.

Maybe they figured it was time to drink from the ABnB fountain of wealth :LOL: Or they got tired of their own visits made unpleasant by the "I paid for it, I'll do what I want" crowd:mad:?

My 'hood went from 10-15% STR in 2018-19 to 35-40% today, and a lot of late comers (bought '21 to early '22). It diminished the daily quality of life for full-time residents, although 2023 was better than the previous 3 summers. Occupancy and daily rates were down this summer season. I expect some changes in ownership, or big changes in how those properties are managed.

Here's to hoping you can get it at a price that makes it easy to ignore what happens next door.
 
I think the issue of short term rentals taking slices of the market away is an under-reported, under-analyzed and underappreciated aspect of this market boom.
 
In 2008-2012, houses sold well below replacement cost. Building pretty much stopped. Prices can and do drop below the cost to build.

Having specialized in buying foreclosures , I have always bought below build costs. My bid starts a land value (per the tax card).
 
Article in our local paper today. Home sales down 20% year over year.
 
Price or volume? Because in some markets volume is way down, given fewer sellers, supporting steady prices.

This is what we're seeing in our CO resort town. Volumes are way down, but prices, in general, are holding.

One important factor in some areas like ours is that in many areas the RE prices must be supported by the prevailing wages/salaries in the areas. That is not true of a town like ours. We have "world money" competing for our RE that skews the prices and dampens the effects or rate changes and employment issues. The other side of the coin is of course is that those with jobs that aren't extremely high-paying are having an increasingly difficult time affording anything here.
 
This is what we're seeing in our CO resort town. Volumes are way down, but prices, in general, are holding.

One important factor in some areas like ours is that in many areas the RE prices must be supported by the prevailing wages/salaries in the areas. That is not true of a town like ours. We have "world money" competing for our RE that skews the prices and dampens the effects or rate changes and employment issues. The other side of the coin is of course is that those with jobs that aren't extremely high-paying are having an increasingly difficult time affording anything here.

I have a similar "world money" effect in the markets where I own property. In the bigcity market, one-percenters, foriegn buyers, and hedge funds are somewhat less impacted by mortgage rates. In the vacation home market, its one-percenters who can afford to sit on their property for as long as it takes (even years) to get their price. Can be hugely frustrating if you're a buyer.
 
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