jetpack
Recycles dryer sheets
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2013
- Messages
- 437
With the S&P hitting 2,000 today. I'm curious what you all think will be next,
and what's the sentiment of people FIREd
and what's the sentiment of people FIREd
Doesn't seem like a stretch to me.One of my first posts on this forum last summer was questioning someone who didn't think the S&P would hit 2000 before the year 2020. I pointed out that, at the time, that would've required less than 3% annualized growth and that I figured it would happen much sooner than that. I also commented that we might see 3000 before 2020...
The overarching point here is that 2000 is just an index number. In itself, it's meaningless. Just like your portfolio, the first 1000 was the hardest, and now we'll see the S&P climb to *GASP* 3000 over the course of the next five to seven years (seven years would require just 6% annualized). And you know what will happen then?
It'll keep going up.
It'll keep going up.
Well, the last two times the S&P got to around 1500, recession hit afterwards and it fell back to around 800 or so. That's a 47% drop...pretty scary stuff.
To a certain extent, all indexes are managed with poorly performing companies quietly dropped and more promising companies added. To a certain extent, even indexers have somewhat "managed" funds.
I only hope that come January I rebalance a bundle out of equities into fixed income. That always feels better than the other way around.
Sadly, there appear to be people out there who think this this is causation, when in fact it's not even correlation, at least not in the direction they think it is.
What comes next, 2001.