 |
|
06-09-2008, 04:26 PM
|
#21
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
|
 Quote:
Originally Posted by chinaco
OK... I have to ask. Are you better off than you were 8 years ago?
|
Yes big time.
|
|
|
 |
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!
Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!
|
|
06-09-2008, 04:31 PM
|
#22
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 1,502
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Notmuchlonger
Why worry about running out of money. Really you are allowed to end it whenever you want..Unless death beats you to the punch.
|
Yeah, why don't you go for the GSW to the head first. If it looks quick and painless on you, I'll consider that a solution. 
|
|
|
|
|
06-09-2008, 04:39 PM
|
#23
|
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2004
Location: SW Ohio
Posts: 14,404
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by chinaco
Are you better off than you were 8 years ago?
|
Absolutely.
|
|
|
|
|
06-09-2008, 04:40 PM
|
#24
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
|
Sorry don't know what GSW is. Maybe you should spell it out
|
|
|
|
|
06-09-2008, 07:52 PM
|
#25
|
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
|
We're also cherry picking (or whatever the opposite of cherry picking is) the date. If you retired near the peak of the bubble, you've had flat returns or even negative returns. If, however, you retired a couple years later, your returns would be much better. If you retired a couple years earlier, your returns would be much better. The late 90's bubble distorts things a lot and as we get closer to the 10-yr anniversary our 10-yr average total returns will reflect that.
|
|
|
|
|
06-09-2008, 08:03 PM
|
#26
|
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 798
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Independent
Since ATS5G was kind enough to give us the link to this site: Political Calculations: The S&P 500 at Your Fingertips
it's easy to get the answer.
The real, total return from 4-99 thru 4-08 was a positive 0.99%.
However, if you look at the 8 years from 4-00 thru 4-08, you get a negative 2.03%.
I didn't look for the crossover point. |
If you believe the BS inflation numbers that is true. With John Williams unfudged inflation numbers you are getting hit. Which best fits tonights headline stories on the Nightly News? 
|
|
|
|
|
06-09-2008, 09:50 PM
|
#27
|
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
|
The disgusting mess that it would leave behind is enough to keep me from doing that.
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
|
|
|
|
|
06-10-2008, 09:30 AM
|
#28
|
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,702
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by chinaco
OK... I have to ask. Are you better off than you were 8 years ago?
|
You betcha. I made a ton of money on california real estate, plenty on reits and emerging markets, and turned nearly 14% a year annualized.
But then again, I wasnt just sitting in the s&p 500.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
|
|
|
|
|
06-10-2008, 06:44 PM
|
#29
|
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 798
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny
You betcha. I made a ton of money on california real estate, plenty on reits and emerging markets, and turned nearly 14% a year annualized.
But then again, I wasnt just sitting in the s&p 500.
|
So where are you invested right now so that we may all track your progress going forward and profit? I also made a lot of money in the past but I mostly attribute my success to being lucky. I'd hate to be left behind while sitting in the s&p500.
|
|
|
|
|
06-10-2008, 07:48 PM
|
#30
|
|
Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,189
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by chinaco
OK... I have to ask. Are you better off than you were 8 years ago?
|
Good heavens, yes!!! I am presently earning 175% of my salary in 2000. At that time I had nothing in savings and a junk car that only worked sporadically. I was living in an apartment which was much smaller than the house I bought and paid off between then and now. I had nothing in retirement or taxable accounts. I had no focus then and didn't know where I was going financially.
But I am not so sure the difference was a result of economic dynamics - - I think it was a result of recovering from my divorce emotionally and financially, developing in my career, and getting my life together. And then recently other factors have helped as well.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
|
|
|
|
|
06-10-2008, 07:57 PM
|
#31
|
|
Gone but not forgotten
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Sarasota,fl.
Posts: 11,447
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by chinaco
OK... I have to ask. Are you better off than you were 8 years ago?
|
Yes , The tech melt down took a chunk of my money but I recovered and like CFB I made some money in real estate ,Reit's and Energy . Plus I'm retired and living the good life and I have a beautiful grandson !
|
|
|
|
|
06-10-2008, 08:24 PM
|
#32
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,901
|
OK lets great real. How many retired 8 yrs. ago and have been living on at least 50% from assets. How happy are you.
I'll vote first. I'm happy  .
Many who retired at that time are back to work.
__________________
“I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said” Alan Greenspan
|
|
|
|
|
06-11-2008, 07:00 AM
|
#33
|
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 108
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by laurencewill
O.K., I know it's had it's ups and downs, but the S&P is trading in a range about where it was June of '99. I think best case the dividends are cancelled out by inflation, does this mean in real terms it's had 0% return for the last 9 years, or am I missing something? How does this compare to the bad times in the 60's and 70's? How are those of you who are retired doing, how's the portfolio balance? NASDAQ looks flat for that time period, too, although Russell 2000 is up a decent amount.
|
Hi,
If you had diversified into US Small cap, int'l small cap, REITs, commodity futures and so forth, the returns would have been quite different and positive.
US TSM or Int'l TSM only doesn't diversify like it use to. Bogle's "TSM is sufficient diversification" is dated advice and overly simplistic.
Petey
|
|
|
|
|
06-11-2008, 09:01 AM
|
#34
|
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by peteyperson
Hi,
If you had diversified into US Small cap, int'l small cap, REITs, commodity futures and so forth, the returns would have been quite different and positive.
US TSM or Int'l TSM only doesn't diversify like it use to. Bogle's "TSM is sufficient diversification" is dated advice and overly simplistic.
Petey |
If you had purchased credit default swaps on Countrywide you would be an effing billionaire.
What were you thinking? 
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
|
|
|
|
|
06-14-2008, 03:11 AM
|
#35
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,771
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by laurencewill
My portfolio has done better than flat, not only due to diversification but also ongoing contributions as I took advantage of the lows. But I was just curious about those in the withdrawal phase. A 4.13% return isn't much if that doesn't factor in inflation. With a 4% withdrawal rate, you are down over ten years. Also, ten years is June '98, 98 to 99 was an excellent year, I'll be curious to see what the 10 year return looks like next year. I was just thinking this is definitely times that try an ER's soul.
|
There are all kinds of complexities within this. For example, most savvy investors will rebalance annually, so even those in the withdrawal phase will be putting more into the S&P when prices are low.
But yes, if you just look at the two points in time, most people would agree that right now investors in the S&P are not very happy about the current status of their holdings. However, many of those same people have a long-term horizon, so these ups and downs don't bother them...which is where I fit in.
I just hope it goes up over the next 5 years or so, that's when I want to significantly reduce my stock exposure so I can retire.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
|
|
|
| Thread Tools |
Search this Thread |
|
|
|
| Display Modes |
 Linear Mode
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
» Recent Threads
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
» Quick Links
|
|
|
