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S&Pís fastest 50 day gain in 90 years.
Old 06-08-2020, 12:23 AM   #1
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S&Pís fastest 50 day gain in 90 years.

Everyone seems relieved the market has recovered,

Watching the Bloomberg. Headline - S&Pís fastest 50-day gain in 90 years.

Uh, 2020 minus 90= 1930. The brink of the Great Depression? Oh, joy. Happy days are here again.
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Old 06-08-2020, 03:16 AM   #2
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Personally, I think the market is overbought. The economy is tanking globally. Many industries are hit hard. Some will not recover, others will take years. This will be a longer recession than the previous one, IMHO. The market will take a few more dips.
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Old 06-08-2020, 04:33 AM   #3
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It is an example though of why you should not try to time the market.
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Old 06-08-2020, 04:41 AM   #4
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Have Fun

What goes up will go down. There are many that cannot resist the urge of the short term trading "casino" but to me this is just gambling vs. actually investing in equities.

You can get rich on gambling, but far more go broke or suffer mediocre returns.
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Old 06-08-2020, 04:51 AM   #5
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What goes up will go down. There are many that cannot resist the urge of the short term trading "casino" but to me this is just gambling vs. actually investing in equities.

You can get rich on gambling, but far more go broke or suffer mediocre returns.

Or worse, risk significant long term damage to a portfolio based on the "timing" of the timing event. Especially if it's done multiple times at the wrong time.
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Old 06-08-2020, 04:58 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by robnplunder View Post
Personally, I think the market is overbought. The economy is tanking globally. Many industries are hit hard. Some will not recover, others will take years. This will be a longer recession than the previous one, IMHO. The market will take a few more dips.
This seems reasonable. The question is, have you changed your AA in reaction to this belief, or are you staying the course and resisting trying to time the market? Just curious.
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Old 06-08-2020, 05:43 AM   #7
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Or worse, risk significant long term damage to a portfolio based on the "timing" of the timing event. Especially if it's done multiple times at the wrong time.
Market timers have benefited from a 12 year bull market. Wait until it goes the other way - then buying in and out is not so easy.
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Old 06-08-2020, 08:00 AM   #8
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$3 trillion of FED-bucks goes a long way.
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Old 06-08-2020, 08:07 AM   #9
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Yeah the economy still sucks and we haven't realized full impact yet. Stocks are also back to expensive. Meanwhile trillions have been flushed down the Fed toilet. Red alert.
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Old 06-08-2020, 10:42 AM   #10
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Yeah the economy still sucks and we haven't realized full impact yet. Stocks are also back to expensive. Meanwhile trillions have been flushed down the Fed toilet. Red alert.

You seem to think that the economy would be better off if the Fed had done nothing. Please explain how austerity would have been a more beneficial response.
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Old 06-08-2020, 12:01 PM   #11
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The Fed action likely artificially improved the stock market than it did the economy.
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Old 06-08-2020, 04:01 PM   #12
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You seem to think that the economy would be better off if the Fed had done nothing. Please explain how austerity would have been a more beneficial response.
There did have to be quick and massive responses.
The question to me is where the monies went - corporations vs. individuals could have been more skewed towards individuals.
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Old 06-08-2020, 04:10 PM   #13
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You seem to think that the economy would be better off if the Fed had done nothing. Please explain how austerity would have been a more beneficial response.
I think the Fed has improved the stock market, which is great for anyone that wants to lessen their stock holdings and increase bonds.
A consideration now that they have seen how low stocks can go.

A problem with the Fed action is someone is going to pay the debt someday and it will probably be us, via higher taxes, a lower USD dollar, etc..

Another problem is some folks will truly think everything is fine again. Happy Days are here Again, but in reality we simply delayed the issue.
Then we will soon slide into a Recession once the Fed effect evaporates away (IMHO) within a year.
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Old 06-08-2020, 04:16 PM   #14
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The Fed action likely artificially improved the stock market than it did the economy.
Exactly correct
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Old 06-08-2020, 05:23 PM   #15
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And yet Huzzah! Today our stock holdings ostensible value + what we added in VTI from late Feb to mid March surpassed it's previous high on 2/19/20 plus our VTI purchases.

The cat is healthy, both cars work, the roof doesn't leak, the heater heats, we've food to eat, both of us still get vertical - quarterly tax checks are ready to mail and there's enough government I'm sure they will get cashed - So Huzzah!
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Old 06-08-2020, 05:41 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by robnplunder View Post
Personally, I think the market is overbought. The economy is tanking globally. Many industries are hit hard. Some will not recover, others will take years. This will be a longer recession than the previous one, IMHO. The market will take a few more dips.
True. But the market has not been tightly tied to the economy for a while now.
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Old 06-08-2020, 06:59 PM   #17
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Stocks seem to only go up despite all the bad news. I wish I had bought more during the big dip in March.
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Old 06-09-2020, 04:20 AM   #18
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Exactly, excellent perspective.
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Old 06-09-2020, 04:27 AM   #19
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The S&P 500 is now even for the year. Would never have believed it at this point.
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Old 06-09-2020, 04:56 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by Sunset View Post
I think the Fed has improved the stock market, which is great for anyone that wants to lessen their stock holdings and increase bonds.
A consideration now that they have seen how low stocks can go.

A problem with the Fed action is someone is going to pay the debt someday and it will probably be us, via higher taxes, a lower USD dollar, etc..

Another problem is some folks will truly think everything is fine again. Happy Days are here Again, but in reality we simply delayed the issue.
Then we will soon slide into a Recession once the Fed effect evaporates away (IMHO) within a year.
Umm, the recession is here already. The Fed effect might evaporate sooner than a year.
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