S&P’s fastest 50 day gain in 90 years.

[gcgang]

Everyone seems relieved the market has recovered,

Watching the Bloomberg. Headline - S&P’s fastest 50-day gain in 90 years.

Uh, 2020 minus 90= 1930. The brink of the Great Depression? Oh, joy. Happy days are here again.

 

[robnplunder]

Personally, I think the market is overbought. The economy is tanking globally. Many industries are hit hard. Some will not recover, others will take years. This will be a longer recession than the previous one, IMHO. The market will take a few more dips.

 

[DrRoy]

It is an example though of why you should not try to time the market.

 

[53anddone]

Have Fun

What goes up will go down. There are many that cannot resist the urge of the short term trading "casino" but to me this is just gambling vs. actually investing in equities.

You can get rich on gambling, but far more go broke or suffer mediocre returns.

 

[tdv2]

What goes up will go down. There are many that cannot resist the urge of the short term trading "casino" but to me this is just gambling vs. actually investing in equities.

You can get rich on gambling, but far more go broke or suffer mediocre returns.

Or worse, risk significant long term damage to a portfolio based on the "timing" of the timing event. Especially if it's done multiple times at the wrong time.

 

[Golden sunsets]

Personally, I think the market is overbought. The economy is tanking globally. Many industries are hit hard. Some will not recover, others will take years. This will be a longer recession than the previous one, IMHO. The market will take a few more dips.

This seems reasonable. The question is, have you changed your AA in reaction to this belief, or are you staying the course and resisting trying to time the market? Just curious.

 

[53anddone]

Or worse, risk significant long term damage to a portfolio based on the "timing" of the timing event. Especially if it's done multiple times at the wrong time.

Market timers have benefited from a 12 year bull market. Wait until it goes the other way - then buying in and out is not so easy.

 

[jebmke]

$3 trillion of FED-bucks goes a long way.

 

[JustVisitingThisPlanet]

Yeah the economy still sucks and we haven't realized full impact yet. Stocks are also back to expensive. Meanwhile trillions have been flushed down the Fed toilet. Red alert.

 

[Markola]

Yeah the economy still sucks and we haven't realized full impact yet. Stocks are also back to expensive. Meanwhile trillions have been flushed down the Fed toilet. Red alert.

You seem to think that the economy would be better off if the Fed had done nothing. Please explain how austerity would have been a more beneficial response.

 

[JustVisitingThisPlanet]

The Fed action likely artificially improved the stock market than it did the economy.

 

[Dtail]

You seem to think that the economy would be better off if the Fed had done nothing. Please explain how austerity would have been a more beneficial response.

There did have to be quick and massive responses.
The question to me is where the monies went - corporations vs. individuals could have been more skewed towards individuals.

 

[Sunset]

You seem to think that the economy would be better off if the Fed had done nothing. Please explain how austerity would have been a more beneficial response.

I think the Fed has improved the stock market, which is great for anyone that wants to lessen their stock holdings and increase bonds.
A consideration now that they have seen how low stocks can go.

A problem with the Fed action is someone is going to pay the debt someday and it will probably be us, via higher taxes, a lower USD dollar, etc..

Another problem is some folks will truly think everything is fine again. Happy Days are here Again, but in reality we simply delayed the issue.
Then we will soon slide into a Recession once the Fed effect evaporates away (IMHO) within a year.

 

[53anddone]

The Fed action likely artificially improved the stock market than it did the economy.

Exactly correct

 

[calmloki]

And yet Huzzah! Today our stock holdings ostensible value + what we added in VTI from late Feb to mid March surpassed it's previous high on 2/19/20 plus our VTI purchases.

The cat is healthy, both cars work, the roof doesn't leak, the heater heats, we've food to eat, both of us still get vertical - quarterly tax checks are ready to mail and there's enough government I'm sure they will get cashed - So Huzzah!

 

[timo2]

Personally, I think the market is overbought. The economy is tanking globally. Many industries are hit hard. Some will not recover, others will take years. This will be a longer recession than the previous one, IMHO. The market will take a few more dips.

True. But the market has not been tightly tied to the economy for a while now.

 

[rezz]

Stocks seem to only go up despite all the bad news. I wish I had bought more during the big dip in March.

 

[KenZ71]

Exactly, excellent perspective.

 

[DrRoy]

The S&P 500 is now even for the year. Would never have believed it at this point.

 

[Dtail]

I think the Fed has improved the stock market, which is great for anyone that wants to lessen their stock holdings and increase bonds.
A consideration now that they have seen how low stocks can go.

A problem with the Fed action is someone is going to pay the debt someday and it will probably be us, via higher taxes, a lower USD dollar, etc..

Another problem is some folks will truly think everything is fine again. Happy Days are here Again, but in reality we simply delayed the issue.
Then we will soon slide into a Recession once the Fed effect evaporates away (IMHO) within a year.

Umm, the recession is here already. The Fed effect might evaporate sooner than a year.

 

[vince]

Good opportunity to squirrel away an extra year's worth of RMD.

 

[Markola]

S&P’s fastest 50 day gain in 90 years.

The Fed action likely artificially improved the stock market than it did the economy.

Sorry, but you can’t know what would have happened to the economy if the Fed and Congress had not acted to pump in trillions of liquidity. The Fed doesn’t act to improve the stock market. That’s a secondary effect. They acted, faster than ever before, to make a cratering economy merely “bad” with the ability to improve versus letting it become “third world” and to avoid the kind of great panics and depressions that used to exist before the Fed was created. We would not want to live in an economy without central banks soothing periodic, inevitable, capitalist economy failures.

 

[audreyh1]

The S&P 500 is now even for the year. Would never have believed it at this point.

The saying - the market acts to confound the most investors- comes to mind. A poor paraphrase, but something like that.

 

[statsman]

Umm, the recession is here already. The Fed effect might evaporate sooner than a year.

Already seeing price inflation on just about everything outside of energy.

 

[kevink]

Great post yesterday on Portfolio Charts about this big bounce that puts this roller-coaster ride in perspective:

https://portfoliocharts.com/2020/06/08/welcome-to-the-big-bounce/#more-36386

Amidst all of the performance chasing one hopes that many folks are discovering their true risk tolerance. Of course I realize that's preaching to the choir here for the most part; I'm always impressed by how many folks here stay the course no matter what.