Social Security at 62, 66 or 70?

Cute Fuzzy Bunny said:
I also havent heard anyone mention the no-brainer option thats come up a few times. Unless something has changed or prior posts were mistaken, you can take social security early and then at 66 or 70 give them the cumulative payments back and restart at the higher payment level.
In other words, you can take the benefits and either invest them in cash or TIPS and enjoy the free dividend, then give the principal back. Or put the $ into a higher returning but more risky portfolio with a higher return.
So, if you had to pay taxes on the early withdrawls, I'm guessing you don't get that back
and will end up paying tax on the same money twice, could be a real bad deal fro some.
 
jdw_fire said:
The paper only treats the decision from the motivation of getting the maximum amount of money from SS, where as the thread I referenced in my last post points out that some peoples motivation is to spend more money earlier in retirement (between the ages of 62 & 70) without reguard to how much the retiree ultimately receives from SS. A change in a person's motivation can change what the correct answer is for any given person.

Actually there is a problem doing this if you are paying taxes on the SS, whether you are working or not.

Jonathan Clements as well as most every financial expert agrees with you on this one. The loudest blabbermouth in the chat room has built a up hairball so large that he can't learn anything anymore.

Live It Up in Retirement

Jonathan Clements, Wall Street Journal

July 24, 2005





Quick, hide this column from your children.

Sure, you would like to bequeath them a few bucks. But you also want to enjoy your retirement. And that, frankly, is a problem, because you really don't have enough saved.

You could fiddle with your portfolio, in an effort to eke out more income. But in the end, if you want to give your standard of living a significant boost, you need to consider three strategies. The downside: If you employ these strategies, you will likely die with precious few assets -- and that means a skimpy inheritance for the kids.

Immediate Gratification

Despite that drawback, I think the three strategies below will become increasingly popular. The reality is, as the baby boomers approach retirement, many will realize they can't generate enough income with a conventional portfolio of stocks, bonds and mutual funds.

Their choice: They can spend their remaining days pinching pennies -- or they can adopt some variation on what I call the three-check strategy. What's the strategy? The idea is to crank up your income by collecting three handsome checks each month.

One of those checks would come from an immediate annuity that pays lifetime income. With these annuities, you hand over a wad of money to an insurer, in return for which you get a check every month for life.

For instance, according to www.immediateannuities.com, if you are age 65, a $100,000 investment would buy annual income of $7,848 if you are a man and $7,392 if you are a woman. No other low-risk investment will give you that sort of income.

There are, of course, disadvantages. Annuity payments are usually fixed, leaving you vulnerable to inflation. You can sidestep this problem by purchasing the new inflation-indexed annuity offered by Vanguard Group in Malvern, Pa.

According to www.vanguard.com, a $100,000 investment would buy initial annual income of $5,531 if you are a 65-year-old man and $5,058 if you are a woman. Thereafter, your income would climb each year along with inflation.

Inflation, however, isn't the main reason retirees resist annuitizing. Rather, they hate the idea that they might buy an income annuity and die soon after. If that happened, their initial investment would be gone and they would have received scant income in return. Because of that risk, you shouldn't buy a lifetime-income annuity unless you are confident you will live well into your 80s.

It Pays to Delay

Vanguard's annuity might sound like a novel idea. But in fact, seniors have enjoyed the benefits of this sort of annuity since 1975, when Social Security retirement benefits were first linked to inflation.

Like the idea of inflation-indexed income? To collect even more, all you have to do is delay the start of your Social Security benefits. For instance, if you were born between 1943 and 1954 and you were eligible for a $750 monthly Social Security check at age 62, you could garner $1,000 a month by postponing benefits until age 66.

As sharp-eyed readers will notice, I am ignoring inflation. That doesn't affect the trade off, because inflation would give an equal percentage boost to both numbers.

Just as retirees resist immediate annuities, so they also dislike delaying Social Security. One reason: People fear they will die without collecting much in benefits. Indeed, you shouldn't postpone Social Security until 65 or 66 unless you think you will live until at least your early 80s.

For some reason, many seniors also assume that delaying Social Security means delaying retirement. That isn't necessarily so. You could retire at age 62 and then live off your savings until you start benefits at 66.

That may mean less money for your heirs. But it can be a smart move for income-hungry retirees, because Uncle Sam makes delaying benefits awfully attractive. To understand why, suppose you opted for the $750 monthly benefit at age 62.

But instead of spending the money, you invested it. Let's say that, over the next four years, your $750 monthly investment clocked a 3% annual return -- which would be a handsome gain, because I am assuming no inflation and no taxes.

That would give you $38,294 at age 66. If you then used that sum to buy an inflation-indexed lifetime-income annuity from Vanguard, you would get monthly income of $183 if you are a man and $167 if you are a woman.

A good deal? You could have done far better by simply delaying Social Security until age 66. That way, you would have received $1,000 a month, $250 more than at age 62.

Postponing benefits is especially appealing if you are married, says Henry "Bud" Hebeler, who runs www.analyzenow.com, a Web site devoted to retirement issues. "When the primary breadwinner dies, the spouse can get 100% of the breadwinner's benefit as a survivor's benefit," he notes. "For married people, it's a heck of a deal."

Reversal of Fortune

If you opt for both the annuity and delayed Social Security, you will get two handsome checks each month. Where will the third check come from? You could take out a reverse mortgage and, depending on the loan program, receive the proceeds as a lump sum, a line of credit or a monthly payment.

While I think all retirees should seriously consider delaying Social Security and annuitizing a portion of their savings, I am much less keen on reverse mortgages because the costs involved are pretty steep.

Indeed, before you consider a reverse mortgage, you should first trade down to a less-expensive home. That will not only free up home equity that can then be spent, but also it should trim your property taxes, maintenance expenses, homeowner's insurance and utilities.

If that still leaves you short of income, then consider a reverse mortgage. Look on the Internet at www.aarp.org/revmort and www.reversemortgage.org to learn more.

Yes, taking out a reverse mortgage means that, after your death, your kids may get little or no value out of your house. But as I see it, you get just one shot at retirement. For once in your life, maybe you should be a little selfish.
 
From the Clements information: So if you can invest the 62 SS at more than 3% the gap on waiting closes? If you bank the SS from 62 to 67 and can get a 5 years CD at say 6.0 or 6.25% does that make the case for taking it early? Who, today, is getting a 3% safe return and if they are why? I know this is picking out one thing and downplaying it. I see the wisdom in waiting for SS but it is just a thought.
 
OAG said:
From the Clements information: So if you can invest the 62 SS at more than 3% the gap on waiting closes? If you bank the SS from 62 to 67 and can get a 5 years CD at say 6.0 or 6.25% does that make the case for taking it early?

The 3% in Clements' example is after tax, after inflation. And backed by US Govt.

Not available anywhere right now, except by delaying SS.

If it takes too many words to explain this the "explanation" is an obfuscation.

Ha
 
Cut-Throat said:
Jonathan Clements as well as most every financial expert agrees with you on this one. The loudest blabbermouth in the chat room has built a up hairball so large that he can't learn anything anymore.

Actually, this is factually incorrect. I believe the percentage of scientists who dont believe in global warming is higher than the percentage of financial experts that agree on delaying social security. Perhaps you, as the math and investing whiz that you are, can point to the document that tells us what percentage of 'financial experts' supports delaying vs taking it early? I'm sure you read something, because you seem to be speaking of this as a strong fact.

And considering I just supplied a 10 page comprehensive document that explains why (in excruciating detail) , with several pages of linked articles from financial and economic experts, perhaps i'm not the one with a learning problem... :)

The short 'explanation' is this...your social security income is offsetting your portfolio withdrawals dollar for dollar. We've already exhaustively proven that you can get successfully get a 4% swr or better from that portfolio. Which means according to this 'delay supporter', you're better off not delaying because a 4% return is already all but guaranteed...unless the future is materially different from the past.

In which case we're all screwed.

Where we have a problem is when someone who already has their mind made up chooses to mitigate all of the risks on one side of the equation and magnify the risks on the other side of the equation.
 
IMHO this isn't even a jump ball. Take it as early as you can get it. Only exception is, if you intend to work until 70. Then waiting makes sense.
 
TeeJayEvans: No you do not pay taxes twice. When you repay you get a deduction for the repayment amount. Need to read the IRS instructions for exactly where it goes on the return (Instructions are contained starting on page 79 of the current IRS Publication 17).
 
At age 62 my income will come from 3 sources, pension, IRA and SS (if I take it then). Megacorp cuts my pension by 4K at age 62 as a SS offset. This cut happens if I take SS or not. If I delay SS I must make up the lost pension and the deferred SS from my all taxable IRA. This will put me in excess of the 4% SWR and be draining my tax deferred savings currently 50/50 balanced earning an average 7 to 8% per year.

If I take SS at 62 most will not be taxable by the feds as I can stay below the 25K other income level. If I take a small amount from my Roth I can also stay under my state income level for taxing SS.

So, if I take SS at 62 my IRA keeps growing and I pay substantially less in taxes. For me it's an easy case to make.
 
Bikerdude said:
At age 62 my income will come from 3 sources, pension, IRA and SS (if I take it then). Megacorp cuts my pension ... at age 62 as a SS offset. This cut happens if I take SS or not. If I delay SS I must make up the lost pension and the deferred SS from my all taxable IRA. ....

So, if I take SS at 62 my IRA keeps growing and I pay substantially less in taxes. For me it's an easy case to make.

I'm in the same boat. I'll be taking my SS as soon as I'm eligible. DH plans to delay until he stops his (self) employment.
 
Cute Fuzzy Bunny said:
Of course. Theres always a problem with not doing it the way ones head has preordained it.

This study seems to imply that almost everyone will be dead before they'd get any benefit out of taking a larger payment later.

......

But then again, trillions of dollars and the best actuaries and financial minds available could all be wrong.

I'm curious about the reference to "actuaries" above. Can you point me to something written by one of them?
 
Indeed. Pick any social security publication. The benefit amounts paid are determined to pay out, on average, exactly the same amount regardless of when you start receiving the benefits. Provided you die on time. Too soon, you lose. Too late, they lose.

I'm quite sure a couple of actuaries were involved in these determinations, although I cant say for sure any of them wrote something as an individual.... ;)

Of course, if you're one of the 5-10% of people who'll live longer than the mortality tables say you will, you're so godawful rich that getting the income early wont matter, you're still working through your 60's, you have an intractable tax situation at 62 that goes away at 65 or 70, you only invest in risk-free products, you want your surviving spouse to have a few extra bucks in his/her 90's, you're sure social security benefits wont be cut or the CPI calculation reduced ANOTHER 30%, or you think you'll enjoy the extra money more at 85 than at 62...you oughta wait.

If you'd like to retire earlier than planned, with a higher SWR for 10-20+ years, and get the money while the gettin' is good...then the numbers say its better to take it early. Unless you tie their arms behind their backs, cover them up with a blindfold and yell "la la la la la" while they try to tell you otherwise.
 
Cute Fuzzy Bunny said:
...
Of course, if you're one of the 5-10% of people who'll live longer than the mortality tables say you will,
...
I plan to take mine at 62, but...
Don't about 50% of the people live longer than the mortality tables say they will?
 
I plan to take mine at 62, but...
Don't about 50% of the people live longer than the mortality tables say they will?

There are only 3 kinds of people. Those that can do math and those that can't.

I'm taking mine early as well - plan is for 63 for tax reasons only.
 
Cute Fuzzy Bunny said:
Indeed. Pick any social security publication. The benefit amounts paid are determined to pay out, on average, exactly the same amount regardless of when you start receiving the benefits. Provided you die on time. Too soon, you lose. Too late, they lose.

I'm quite sure a couple of actuaries were involved in these determinations, although I cant say for sure any of them wrote something as an individual.... ;)

Of course, if you're one of the 5-10% of people who'll live longer than the mortality tables say you will,

This is more like I expected. In fact, a minute of searching on the SS site gave me this:
“There are disadvantages and advantages to taking your benefit before your full retirement age. The advantage is that you collect benefits for a longer period of time. The disadvantage is that your benefit may be permanently reduced. Each person's situation is different, so make sure you contact Social Security before you decide to retire.”

I asked the question because of your comment, “This study seems to imply that almost everyone will be dead before they'd get any benefit out of taking a larger payment later.” Maybe you said that because you believe that only 5-10% of people will live longer than their life expectancy.

I figure that about half the people will live longer than their “life expectancy”. I also figure that some people know they have serious health problems, and they’ve already decided that they’re better off starting SS early. So the people who are actually wondering about this question have a slightly longer than average life expectancy.

To me, delaying SS amounts to buying a little longevity insurance. The Spitzer article tells me that if my after-inflation, after-tax, expected return is 3.5-4.5%, then the insurance is “free”. Above that, it costs me something. It’s not a lot of money either way.

If I’m in great shape financially (like you), I can afford to take the higher risk/return investments, and then self-insure the mortality risk. My heirs will thank me. If I’m operating closer to the edge, then I should think about whether that extra 33% in my SS benefit would make me sleep better, especially if it turns out I’m pretty long-lived.
 
I said what you quoted because the study I linked said it. If you follow the spitzer calculations (and the graphs that the actual paper has but this linked document lacks certainly help), and you correlate that with the IRS mortality tables...90-95% of people WILL be dead before they'd see a significant benefit and thats almost all on the latter end of their 80's and early 90's.

Everybody has their own set of criteria for the situation. I'd just sure like everybody to look at all the risks/rewards, rather than the half truths, untruths and hamstrung diatribe materials.

I'd further postulate that if you're so close in your planning that a few hundred bucks a month extra in your 80's/90's makes you sleep better...you might consider working an extra year or two on the front end instead of counting on the united states annuity program still being there and still paying you what you expected.

I'd probably feel differently if I was already shoestringing an ER and in my early 60's. Or if my wife was making six figures and I wanted an excuse to blow a bunch of money right now in my 50's.
 
CFB,

Well written posts, I think that is a very fair presentation of both sides.
 
If you are interested in leaving a pile of money to your heirs, I would suggest that you take SS at age 62. If however, you don't care about piling money up and leaving it to your heirs, I would delay to age 70 and focus on income streams - IOW - How much you get to spend.

Take a simple example - At age 62, a person would receive $15K per year S.S. - Delaying to age 70 - the amount goes to 30K a year.

Age 62 - takes the $15K and invests at 6% for 8 years piling up 148K

Age 70 - receives $30K per year.

The person that took S.S. at age 62 is going to have tap the $148K for $15K per year make up the difference by not delaying.

That is a 10% withdrawal rate on that $148K at age 70 - for possibly 25-30 years. Something I'm not going to bet on!

I'm also ingnoring the taxes that would have to be paid on the gains by taking it at 62, just to keep it simple. Not to mention the spousal benefit of delaying to age 70.
 
And you didnt read the article I posted, apparently.

For starters, most people wont get twice as much at 70 than at 62. My statement says $1124 at 62, $1979 at 70. $13488 and $21348...pretty far from a 15k to 30k jump.

You're also extremely unlikely to live to 95-100.

You're also not going to hit a break even until your late 80's, even with your hamstrung scenario. Hmm, a .25-.50% higher safe withdrawal rate from 45 years old until 85, or a lower withdrawal rate through that 40 year period followed by a few extra hundred bucks a month in my 90's, if I live that long. Tough tradeoff.

You're also ignoring the rest of the retirement portfolio that you've presumably got and maintained for 20-40 years of retirement that you've experienced by the time you're in your late 80's, which has grown larger due to reduced withdrawals from taking the benefit early.

Once again, a worst case scenario on one side, and none of the benefits of the other side, with some funny inaccurate numbers to attempt to support the case.

The paper I described says that the tax situation is moot for most people.

You accuse ME of not learning or having my mind made up? :LOL:

Running_Man said:
Well written posts, I think that is a very fair presentation of both sides.

I'm trying. Not a lot of fun to be labeled the "dont delay social security troll" when i'm not even planning for the benefit to be there when i'm 62. It just bugs me to see someone twist the data and throw out inaccurate information because they're trying to 'win' a debate.

Just tell the truth, use good numbers, be fair to both sides of the equation, and dont be a jerk about it.
 
OK, let me set the stage: You are coming up on your 62nd birthday and you need to decide if you are going to take SS at 62 or wait. You have no desire to leave an estate when you die and are reasonably healthy. Your experience and calculations tell you that you need $1979/mo (CPI adjusted annually) to have a reasonable lifestyle from now till you die but you would like to spend more than that the next several years if possible. You have a portfolio worth $256,500 in a TIRA and your SS matches CFB’s

Cute Fuzzy Bunny said:
My statement says $1124 at 62, $1979 at 70. $13488 and $21348.

What do you do? Well your portfolio will produce $10260/yr ($855/mo) CPI adjusted annually using a 4% SWR, which should last 30 yrs. That $855/mo plus SS of $1024/mo will provide you with the $1979/mo you are looking for.

OR you could wait and start SS at age 70 which will provide you CPI adjusted $1979/mo from age 70 until you die, but what about the time between age 62 and age 70? Well you still have $256,500 which you decide to divide into eight equal portions (for the eight years between 60 and 70) giving you $2671.87/mo to spend. You also decide to put the money in a money market account so that all eight portions keep up with inflation. Now granted if you do this you will have zero money to pass on when you die (provided you live longer than 70yo) but you do get to spend more in the next 8 years than if you took SS at 62. Also if you delay taking SS your income after age 70yo is protected by the full credit and faith of the US government (which is kind of like investing in T-bills), unlike the taking SS at 62yo plan where 60-75% of your portfolio would be invested in stocks.

With that example explained let me provide another very related example. In this example the $1979/mo number is your bare-bones retirement number, i.e. the number you absolutely need to have. But you would like a budget of $3979/mo so that you also have plenty of discretionary money. Also you have a $856,500 portfolio and the same SS options as above. If you take SS at 62 and use a 4% SWR on your portfolio you will get your $3979/mo but if you delay taking SS until 70yo then you get the same income stream after 70yo but you get $4671.87/mo (CPI adjusted) to spend between age 62 and 70. This has the same advantages as were pointed out above and the $600k of your portfolio that is producing your discretionary money has the same chance of surviving you that your entire portfolio has if you take SS at age 62.

Think about it.

BTW, for the CFB

Cute Fuzzy Bunny said:
You're also extremely unlikely to live to 95-100.

If you were 62 and running FIRECalc how long would you put in for your portfolio to last?

Cute Fuzzy Bunny said:
Just tell the truth, use good numbers, be fair to both sides of the equation, and dont be a jerk about it.

I don’t think you qualify on most of these criteria.
 
jdw_fire said:
OK, let me set the stage: You are coming up on your 62nd birthday and you need to decide if you are going to take SS at 62 or wait. You have no desire to leave an estate when you die and are reasonably healthy. Your experience and calculations tell you that you need $1979/mo (CPI adjusted annually) to have a reasonable lifestyle from now till you die but you would like to spend more than that the next several years if possible. You have a portfolio worth $256,500 in a TIRA and your SS matches CFB’s

What do you do? Well your portfolio will produce $10260/yr ($855/mo) CPI adjusted annually using a 4% SWR, which should last 30 yrs. That $855/mo plus SS of $1024/mo will provide you with the $1979/mo you are looking for.

A quick, confused question - - Is the $1979 you will need, BEFORE taxes? Because if it is after taxes, I don't see how you can do it without working a few more years.

(Following the discussion with interest)
 
Don't forget your SS earnings may be taxed at a substantial rate,
and I'm sure it's only going to get worst.
Tom
 
jdw_fire said:
I don’t think you qualify on most of these criteria.

Maybe not, but I also dont come up with hokey ideas based on a bunch fallacious assumptions, then take it personally and whine about it for two frickin years when someone shoots holes in it. Get over it man! Criticizing your ideas is not a criticism of YOU!

As far as your example...once again loaded with assumptions and not the scenario I've discussed. Just one where you can try to 'win' the debate.

Its as easy as 1-2-3...plug all your data into firecalc, put in your social security statement figures for 62 and 70 where appropriate, and see that your lifetime withdrawal rate is higher and your survival rate is better at 62. Mine says that I could spend an extra 5k a year from age 45 to infinity, if I were willing to count on the social security income...which I dont.

Or review the well written spizter article that conclusively demonstrates that you're unlikely to outlive your benefit of waiting until even 65 years old, if you want it in a limited state fishbowl. Or the article written by the advocacy group for retired people that says with few exceptions, you should take it early.

And all this talk of weighing down the portfolio/swr/ss early situation by amplifying the additional delayed social security benefit? Poppycock. Theres absolutely nothing to suggest that the federal government will pay you the full amount 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years from now...for those insisting on a 120 year run in order to make a delay scenario look better.

"Your estimated benefits are based on current law. Congress has made changes to the law in the past and can do so at any time. The law governing benefit amounts may change because by 2042 the payroll taxes collected will be enough to pay only about 73 percent of the scheduled benefits"

Sooo...I think we can quit pretending that the higher payout rate will stick for 40 years. Plenty of current SS recipients are still stinging over the Clinton administrations changes to the CPI calc that cost them a lot of expected money. Wouldnt it suck if you waited and counted on that higher SS figure to live on, then they cut the CPI calc by another 1% like Greenspan was pushing for? You dont need a calculator to figure out the implications of a 1% loss of buying power over this persistent 30-40-50 year lifespan.

The bottom line is that its a truly fixed income, its weighed down by public policy such as a shift to personal accounts and matters of the economy that dont look good, from lower pay increases to the baby boomer retirement wave.

I'll stick with controlling my own money, investing and withdrawing prudently, taking income streams that may or may not be available in the future as soon as they're available, and as far as what age range i'll set for firecalc when i'm 62? About 25 years and the same 4% thats good enough for me right now. When I'm 72 I'll look at it again.
 
Want2retire said:
A quick, confused question - - Is the $1979 you will need, BEFORE taxes? Because if it is after taxes, I don't see how you can do it without working a few more years.

(Following the discussion with interest)

All the monthly numbers (just like the numbers FIRECalc and the famous 4% SWR rule produce) are before taxes.
 
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