The Official DOW and S&P, 2015 Prediction Thread

[Closet_Gamer]

Relatively flat. Economy will motor along and the US will be queen of the pigs globally, but the Fed has to begin the tightening process this year and that should act as an anchor on returns.

I think the bigger questions are:

What will happen with bonds?
Will oil drop even further?
Will Congress get its act together on tax reform?
Will inflation suddenly pop up driving an absolute but not real increase in stocks?

Those are all critical inputs into stocks.

I will respond to these weighty questions and unruly economic forces by rebalancing my portfolio every six months and investing a fixed amount every month.

A trained monkey could do it. It wouldn't even have to be a particularly gifted monkey...

I was too much of a wimp to put out a specific number, but I think I actually did well on the contours...relatively flat, US is queen of the pigs, and the fed (at the stroke of midnight) started tightening.

As to the questions:congress remained congress, oil imploded, and inflation/bonds price volatility remained muted.

The aforementioned trained monkey performed his duties as expected in all regards and will receive an "Achieves Expectations" on his annual performance review.

 

[Mulligan]

I never had a prediction, but I follow one guy on CNBC pretty closely and am a fan of his, Komal Sri-Kuman. Last year when everybody was piping "inevitable rising bond yields" he was taking all sorts of abuse for saying rates are not going up and will stay down. He even said they would go even lower during the year and he was correct. Though he did not recommend them, I patterned all my money to this theory of bond proxy high yield preferred stocks. This worked very well. If rates stay lowish and low growth economy continues, I am staying the course. He continues to say Feds wont be able to follow through with 4 rate increases this year either.


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[kcowan]

He continues to say Feds wont be able to follow through with 4 rate increases this year either.

How about a second one?

 

[Mulligan]

How about a second one?

I don't remember last time I heard him a few weeks ago if he predicted that. But he was resolved in saying if Fed did the "consensus 4 rate hikes" this year it would flatten out the yield curve. He appears to be right as 10 year has barely budged on Fed hike. I remember when in summer of 2014 saying bond yields would go under 2% when everyone else was getting ramped up for 3% plus. He was so contrarian it made absolute sense to me.
I love listening to the man, but hearing him is a struggle. I am just a small town flyover guy, and struggle with those foreign thick english dialects.


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[RenoJay]

My prediction:

Dow: 14,800
S&P 500: 1600


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[audreyh1]

Some folks have been predicting 2 rate hikes in 2016 and two in 2017 if the economy is still sound by then that seems more reasonable to me.

 

[RonBoyd]

I made the correct prediction:


http://www.early-retirement.org/for...2015-prediction-thread-75150.html#post1535952

 

[Mulligan]

Some folks have been predicting 2 rate hikes in 2016 and two in 2017 if the economy is still sound by then that seems more reasonable to me.

Interesting how economic times change. A decade ago, your comment would be viewed as extreme wacko dovishness .... Now it is a conservative mainstream reality.


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[aja8888]

At my age, I don't go out on a limb and predict anything anymore.

 

[Mulligan]

At my age, I don't go out on a limb and predict anything anymore.

Darn it Aja, I was hoping you go out on a limb and say "mortgage the house and put it all into distressed shale US oil drilling companies". Ha!


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[aja8888]

Darn it Aja, I was hoping you go out on a limb and say "mortgage the house and put it all into distressed shale US oil drilling companies". Ha!


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Whisper...natural gas...

 

[springnr]

Whisper...natural gas...

On my second bowl of black-eye peas if that counts.

 

[aja8888]

On my second bowl of black-eye peas if that counts.

Don't eat too many, we don't need the gas for a while.

 

[kcowan]

optionable68 was the clear winner for 2015, winning overall and also category winner for
DOW, OIL and $CAD, an amazing record, making the forecast in December 2014. Congratulations!
DOW 17500
Oil 38.99
$CAD 0.74

Source

 

[VFK57]

S&P - 2,000, Dow 17,500 if Feds policy will keep "money tightening"
S&P - 2,200 and Dow 19,000 if Feds "easy money / QEs" policy will resume later in 2016.

 

[papadad111]

I was expecting about a 10% correction this year, so both the Dow and S&P finished about 7% above my forecast so I guess I should be happy.

BTW, dividends will make the S&P and Dows total return positive this year.

Then we factor in inflation, and we are in real net worth reverse gear.

 

[Fedup]

I think the most is 2 rate rise. It took the fed nearly 10 years to raise 1/4 rate, it probably will take another 10 for the whole point rate increase.


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[ejman]

Then we factor in inflation, and we are in real net worth reverse gear.

Inflation doesn't seem to be much of a factor for the last few years
Current US Inflation Rates: 2005-2015 | US Inflation Calculator

 

[NW-Bound]

I do not know how to play this game of calling the market down to 4 or 5 digits.

It's hard enough just to predict the direction of the market; up, down, or sideways. I define sideways as being within +-5%, and up and down are defined as above or below that band.

Having said that, I think the market will be sideways.

The market was sideways, according to my definition.

 

[shotgunner]

So how did we do with last years predictions?

 

[clifp]

If we had made the prediction end Jan 7 I would have been really close.

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