Unclemick - What's your view on interest rates

dex

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Oct 28, 2003
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Unclemick,
What is your view on interest rates?
The 10yr note is at 4.22% today.
Do you see them going higher in the short term?
I'm looking to buy some individual bonds.
Ultimatly, I belive low interest rates are will be around for a number of years.
 
Dex,if i may,im patiently waiting for the same thing,my target is 4.516% on the 10 yr yield.IF seen ill be scooping a few corps,only AA or better and < than par,and somewhere from 5-10 yrs left to maturity.I havent even bothered looking at a wish list yet,seems a bit early.just my opiniona--ak
 
Ultimatly, I belive low interest rates are will be around for a number of years.

Could you elaborate on this opinion?

Mikey
 
Interest rates are low and rising.  Cleary, there are better investments atm than LT corporate bonds.
 
I - of course bought long term bonds a couple years ago - not to be contrarian to conventional wisdom - but I needed a small bump in the SO's income stream (Vanguard High Yield Corp.).

Basically I don't care what the interest rate is going to do. Of course - emotionally it is important - heh, heh, heh.

Here's how I live with the paradox.
75% Vanguard Lifestrategy - let the computers at Valley Forge (actually I have no idea where they're located) - rebalance based on the preselected asset mix - and hope the SEC yield is satisfactory (not the portfolio value). 10% Vg. REIT Index as a counterbalancer completes my IRA. At age 61 - may or may not take some out this year.

Income is defined pension, 60% plus DRIP dividend stocks 40% - with 40 stocks, I have wiggle room to sell underperformers to loosely match my dividend stream. Dominated by utes, financial, a few REITs - am heh, heh, - emotionally steeled - for some real steep drops in the interest sensitive issues - my Con ED went from 42 to 25, New Plan Reality 18 to 12 - wherein of course I bought more.

I don't husband cash - I buy what's available if I have some mad money - hopefully bargins.

Otherwise - my asset mix is based on my age and ER stituation - not Mr Market (85%).

Yes - valuations and interest rates/rate of change matter big time - so 85% balanced and to some degree self compensating - SEC Yield is the take out rate if needed (2.8% roughly); and 15% is dividend stocks where the competion from rising interest/rate of change will effect valuations.

I accept conventional wisdom - that we are back to the rising part part of the cycle - but don't plan to do anything about it - except to the extent it 'might' contribute to a buy in an individual stock.

However - if the DOW were to fall 5-6000 points - greed might impell me to go 100% stocks and get rid of bonds.
 
I went 100% stocks about 2 weeks ago. So far, that's looking like a good decision.
 
the computers at Valley Forge (actually I have no idea where they're located)

The computer is right here in my office closet.

I just kicked it really hard.

You just bought 30,000 shares of 50 year emerging market bonds in a country that stopped existing 3 years ago.

:)
 
I went 100% stocks about 2 weeks ago. So far, that's looking like a good decision.

Through the end of the year it might be.

I think you'll regret if if you stay in that position a lot longer than that.
 
I'd love to lock in a 7% or higher rate in a long bond or 120 month bank CD when rates climb that high again. I'm hoping this will happen in the next 4 to 6 years.
 
Could you elaborate on this opinion?

Mikey

Mikey,
I believe there will be a lot of global deflationary pressurs in the world and the USA.
World:
- China, India, Southeast Asia, Russia, and eastern europe's emerging markets providing cheap labor and none of the overhead of the developed countries
- Ageing and stagnant population in Western Europe cutting demand
- Higher taxes in the developed world USA/Europe cutting demand
-USA - higher unemployment and underemployment increase in population caused by outsourcing of jobs and increase in taxes.
Only place for inflaction is commodities but they are not the major cost driver they were in the past.
 
I'm not a monetarist or economist - but I think the ability of governments to print money/work the money supply and the world currency market will effect what we see as inflation here.

Somebody needs to sneak over to TH's house and put a lock on his closet. I gots enough bonds for now. heh heh.

I shall continue to assume we are in the rising interest rate part of the business cycle and probably continue to do nothing. Hopefully the speed/rate of increase won't be so fast as to upset any markets drastically. Fast rates of change in either direction make markets nervous.
 
Whoops too late! In response to your concern about too many bonds, the "valley forge" computers just bought you 90,000 shares of Martha Stewart Omnimedia and 150,000 shares of Imclone.
 
TH

PLEASE sneak into the closet and find a way to kill it. Watch yourself though - remember HAL the computer in 2001 A Space Oddesy.

Perhaps toss in a open box of fresh dryer sheets to weaken it first - although that might send it into a short term bond buying frenzy - a chance one must take.
 
I *will* try.

Those commodore 64's are hard to kill though.

Whoops, it just issued a stop-loss order on the imclone stock.

You might be headed to 'camp cupcake' unclemick... ;)
 
Oh no! Perhaps I'd better run to the authorities and plea bargin myself into witness protection and identity change - make a case for being under the influence of dryer sheet fumes or something.


sugar! shoot! - I thought I could do the time with my Vanguard TBM in balanced index(4-5 years duration).
But after seeing what happened to Martha - Hmmm, plea bargin may be best.
 
"What happened to Martha" is illustrative of a
primary reason I "dropped out". It makes no sense.
Really, a metaphor for big government/goofy laws
run amok. Trust me folks, the people who deserve
to be imprisoned are running around loose; while an
entrepreneur (may I say hero?) goes to prison.
What is wrong with this picture? What is really depressing, no matter who wins the election the
march to "big brotherism" continues apace.

John Galt
 
"What happened to Martha" is illustrative of a
primary reason I "dropped out".  It makes no sense.
Really, a metaphor for big government/goofy laws
run amok.  Trust me folks, the people who deserve
to be imprisoned are running around loose; while an
entrepreneur (may I say hero?) goes to prison.
What is wrong with this picture?  What is really depressing,  no matter who wins the election the
march to "big brotherism" continues apace.

John Galt

I hope you were just as disgusted at the Clinton Impeachment Hearings. Cost the taxpayers over 70 Million dollars!
 
Hi Cut-Throat! Yes, I believe the Clinton impeachment was a
total waste. But, I believe most money spent by our
government is wasted. My attitude is that once they
get it away from us, it will probably be wasted, or
even worse, used to promote something bizarre
and/or anti-American. Alas, I see no slackening of this trend.

John Galt
 
Uh oh, I should have known this would turn into a 'poor martha' thread.

She flipped off the cops and burned a lot of the people she needed to back up her transparent lie. Then when she was offered a deal that would have been a sweetheart compared to what she ended up with, she declined and decided to roll the dice with a jury.

A very bad series of decisions.

She was very lucky to get off as easily as she did.
 
Before we leave "poor Martha", bad decisions or no,
we live in a society of too many laws. The result is that
everyone becomes a law breaker eventually. Then all you need is someone in authority to decide you're next
or that you are too big for your britches (Martha?) or they just don't like your politics. TH, there but for the grace of God (if there is a God) go you, so let's not be so smug about Martha and all the other Marthas
who are sitting in the slammer while we play with our
____________(insert your choice here).

John Galt
 
She's definitely paying a steep price for what she did. But I can't get over the fact that she was on the board of directors at the NYSE. Anyone holding that position clearly knows better than to be dicking around with insider knowledge (especially over what is only a few bucks to her). People who hold those positions in the future should know that they need to be completely above-board or else.

Lurksalot
 
I'm nowhere near 'smug' about her. Believe me. I just cant believe someone as smart as she is could be so serially dumb.

She should never have owned stock in a close friends company.

If she did it should have been through a blind trading agreement.

She probably shouldnt have been personally managing her money in the first place.

She definitely shouldnt have been fiddling around with the shares almost certainly knowing about the bad news.

But the two big problems have nothing to do with the stock sale or whether or not she was lying.

She was an ass to the 'little people', and even her friends. Key witnesses for and against her were her administrator (who had to pick up her dogs crap off the carpets at MSO every day), one of her friends (who she charged for half of their vacations together and then expensed the whole thing to MSO), and her brokers assistant (who she dressed down for issues as weighty as the music on hold selections).

The biggest problem was flipping off the cops. During the first several meetings, she dismissed them part way through their questioning by telling them "I'm sorry, I dont have any more time for this, I have a business to run".

Here's an analogous scenario. You go out to lunch with your administrator, a suppliers sales person, your mechanic and one of your friends. You run a yellow light and get stopped by the cops. While the cop is asking you for your paperwork, you tell him "I'm sorry, I have a meeting to go to..." and you take off.

Pretty much guarantees you're going to be arrested, right?

After this, the DA comes in and says "ok, how about we just give you a little fine, you dont even have to admit any wrongdoing, and we leave it at that and put it behind us".

Would your response at this point be that you would like to take your chances with a jury because you are completely innocent?

At this point here are your witnesses for and against you at trial. Your friend has recently found out that you've been taking her money for her share of your lunches together and you've been pocketing it and expensing the meal with the company. Your mechanic is a guy who you regularly yell at and treat like a piece of crap. Your administrator is someone you treat like a red headed stepchild. Your suppliers sales rep is someone you bully and scream at over things that arent even in his control.

When you're found guilty by a jury of your peers, having had the full and complete benefit of the very best defense and legal assistance, you still proclaim your innocence.

Then although sentencing guidelines suggest something in the 2-3 year range, you get 5 months at 'camp cupcake' and another 5 months of house arrest at one of your estates.

Lets just forget about the facts that the results of this mess cost MSO stockholders hundreds of millions of dollars, and the taxpayers millions to prosecute and now an extra hundred thousand or so to pay for her prison stay.

I'd say there are some good lessons here we can all take under consideration: treat everyone with respect, especially the cops because they have a ridiculous amount of power over and potentially against you.

It just cracks me up that everyones focus is on whether or not she had the insider information, whether or not she lied, or that she'd being treated unfairly because she's a woman executive.

Give me one big fat break. Considering the way she handled this, she got off pretty damn easy.

How about another analogy. An inner city kid holds up a store with a fake gun and gets $50. Gets caught by the cops. Admits he did it right away and takes a plea. Shows remorse. Says truthfully that he just needed the money to buy food for his starving family. Nobody was physically hurt. The economic impact was to one person for a small amount and they got their $50 back.

Do you think he gets 5 months at 'camp cupcake' and 5 months on a large estate?

By the way, I think interest rates are going to stop rising at this point, the economy is going to head downslope after the first of the year, and we may even see a quarter point cut in the first or second quarter of next year to help bring us out of the return to a recessionary pause...which will turn up again sometime in the late 3rd quarter of next year.
 
?? Leona Hemsley of -'only little people pay taxes' fame.

And then there's my buddy Edwin E. former LA governer - 'of course I'm a crook, but I'm a crook for the state of Louisiana' - The stinking feds have no sense of humor - the fourth trial got him.

If Martha needs charm school, transfer to Edwin's fed pen, and a few lessons from Edwards might help. I believe Leona has a full time PR man nowadays.
 
TH, you are correct that it is her attitude that got her in to trouble. I also think that she was either ill-advised by her attorneys or she lied to them too. The problem with folks who are arrogant is that when "outed" they stop thinking strategically.

Frankly I wish the ENRON executives would be nailed. IMHO they planned what they did and took steps to protect their assets against the day when they would be discovered. Why they haven't been brought to the dock, I fear, may be political.

Here is an interesting link on interest rate forecasts:
http://www.neatideas.com/10yrT.htm
 
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