Was there a 2007,2008,2009 YTD performance thread?

[NW-Bound]

You resurrected the thread from 2008, but 2009 was the real capitulation, it went down more from the Nov 2008 to March 2009. Maybe 15% more.

March 09, 2009 was the day all 3 indices and my stash hit the bottom.

Compared to the top on October 31, 2007, the S&P was down to 44% of its previous high (1269 vs. 2804). The market lost 56%. My stash lost 37%.

Between those 2 dates, here are some terrifying days.

2008/09/04 DJ dropped 345, from 11533 to 11188.

2008/09/15 DJ dropped 504, from 11422 to 10918

2008/09/26 DJ dropped 778, from 11143 to 10365. S&P down 8.8%.

2008/10/06 DJ dropped 369, from 10325 to 9956

2008/10/07 DJ dropped 509, from 9956 to 9447

2008/10/09 DJ dropped 679, from 9258 to 8579

In between those terrible days, there were days when the DJ went up 937 on 2008/10/13 (SP up 11.6%), or 889 on 2008/10/27 (SP up 10.8%). The market kept bouncing up/down, but more down than up until it bottomed out in early March 2009.

I kept a diary, and that was what I just looked up. I also found that I had my 1st colonoscopy in that time frame (2008/09/30). The scary market did not keep me from traveling. We flew to Seattle, rented a car and did a road trip to Victoria and Vancouver in early Sep 2009.

Me scared? It's only money, not life and death. Life under a bridge is still better than no life, oui?

 

[Alan]

Link doesn't work. I don't think the forum software allows anyone - even those with 'superpowers' - to link a search.

Sorry about that, and I've been out all day

If you go to the forum Fire and Money and do an advanced search selecting someone who was around at that time. I chose brewer12345, and threads he posted in rather than all the posts he made then page through to the years in questions.

 

[Fedup]

March 09, 2009 was the day all 3 indices and my stash hit the bottom.

Compared to the top on October 31, 2007, the S&P was down to 44% of its previous high (1269 vs. 2804). The market lost 56%. My stash lost 37%.

Between those 2 dates, here are some terrifying days.

2008/09/04 DJ dropped 345, from 11533 to 11188.

2008/09/15 DJ dropped 504, from 11422 to 10918

2008/09/26 DJ dropped 778, from 11143 to 10365. S&P down 8.8%.

2008/10/06 DJ dropped 369, from 10325 to 9956

2008/10/07 DJ dropped 509, from 9956 to 9447

2008/10/09 DJ dropped 679, from 9258 to 8579

In between those terrible days, there were days when the DJ went up 937 on 2008/10/13 (SP up 11.6%), or 889 on 2008/10/27 (SP up 10.8%). The market kept bouncing up/down, but more down than up until it bottomed out in early March 2009.

I kept a diary, and that was what I just looked up. I also found that I had my 1st colonoscopy in that time frame (2008/09/30). The scary market did not keep me from traveling. We flew to Seattle, rented a car and did a road trip to Victoria and Vancouver in early Sep 2009.

Me scared? It's only money, not life and death. Life under a bridge is still better than no life, oui?

You have nerve of steel. I didn't because I've already took a big loss in 2000-2003 time frame. I was 100% in stocks before the crash. My husband and I lost our jobs on top of it. As long as you still have your job then you can DCA in at a low price. But if you have to take money to cover job loss situation, it's not so pretty, especially when you don't know when you will get the next job. Interestingly, all 3 recesions, I lost jobs. 1990 is because I went on maternity leave, small company too. In 2001, I resigned from a stressful startup. In 2009, Obama cancelled my project, but I was actually lost my jobs in Jan 2010.

So I'm now older and wiser. I choose very conservative AA.

 

[Fedup]

I'm sure it's clear to you and your "superior memory"! Hmmm, now who was saying "buy, buy, buy" I wonder?

One could also search for "rebalance" which could be an equivalent for those in the draw-down phase.



Yes, it's good to look at the history. But also keep a few things in mind - anyone who isn't certain they have nerves of steel should probably have a fairly conservative AA. I do think most people should have at least 40% in equities, but I also think 50/50 is just fine (I'm more aggressive, but that's not for everyone).

And if you are conservative, I feel your WR% should be too, lets say somewhere in the low 3.x% range?

A 40% drop in 'the market' is an ~ 20% drop for a 50/50 portfolio (OK, depends exactly on what the fixed income side does, but close enough for discussion). And 20% isn't the end of the world, though it's hard to ignore.

But also important, and often missed is, with a 3.x% WR, dividends will cover all/most of your withdrawals. And if you need to sell something, maintaining your 50/50 will mean selling from the fixed income side. So you are unlikely to ever need to sell off stocks when they are at/near a bottom.

Keeping all that in mind should help you to stay calm and rational through a crunch.

-ERD50

Did fixed income side go down too? How did it do in 2008-2009? Not a bonds person so that's my question.

 

[street]

NW-Bound >> I like that data and you kept a diary that is great info. Thanks

It is a scary deal but we know at sometime things aren't going to be as rosy as the times are now. I about 70% equity and I know the risk but I won't need the funds and maybe never will. So re-assure me (lol) that if I still hang in there and don't sell and weather the storm at sometime I will recoup those bad times.

 

[NW-Bound]

...As long as you still have your job then you can DCA in at a low price. But if you have to take money to cover job loss situation, it's not so pretty, especially when you don't know when you will get the next job. Interestingly, all 3 recesions, I lost jobs...

What job?

In the market rout of 2000-2003 and the 9/11 attack, our startup folded and I had to look to go back to aerospace megacorps as a consultant (could not work as their employee again). My father also died in 2003, and it was a bad time in my life. So, I took a Europe trip and saw Nice and Venice during their Carnival.

In the Great Recession, work dried up at megacorp, and I was staying home twiddling thumb during that period of late 2008. Also went up to my high-country 2nd home which I bought in 2005 to chill out.

 

[NW-Bound]

I'm sure it's clear to you and your "superior memory"! Hmmm, now who was saying "buy, buy, buy" I wonder?

I made a few "buy, buy, buy" posts during that period, which I was proud to search for and link to previously. I cannot find them now.

Now, I did buy quite a bit in early 2009, but then sold too soon when I made some money (but not enough to recover to 2007 high). I was afraid of a double-dip, which never came.

We were also talking about whether the market was going to be V-shaped or W-shaped. Some said it was going to be L-shaped.

 

[Fedup]

What job?

In the market rout of 2000-2003 and the 9/11 attack, our startup folded and I had to look to go back to aerospace megacorps as a consultant (could not work as their employee again). My father also died in 2003, and it was a bad time in my life. So, I took a Europe trip and saw Nice and Venice during their Carnival.

In the Great Recession, work dried up at megacorp, and I was staying home twiddling thumb during that period of late 2008. Also went up to my high-country 2nd home which I bought in 2005 to chill out.

How about your wife? Did you have health insurance through your wife? For me only in 1990 was my husband working in a small startup that was going to belly up so that's why we had to move to the Bay Area. In 2003-2004 he was unemployed because his startup ran out of money, luckily it was not in 2001. In 2009, again Obama cancelled his project. We took turn been unemployed, the minute he accepted this job, my aerospace company gave me layoff notice intent. They told me I could move to Arizona and they would pay for me to come back every Friday, but my kid just stared high school, I didn't think it was right to leave her at home by herself, my husband's job was a long commute. In hindsight, it was the right decision. At least one of us carries health insurance.

I'm glad we did have health insurance during these periods except 2003-2004, when we had to buy heath insurance because COBRA was too expensive.

 

[NW-Bound]

Here's something to refresh people's memory.

That incredibly volatile period in Sep-Oct 2008 when the market went up/down as much as 11% in a day corresponded to the time when uncertainties were at the highest. Congress was deliberating the bail-out of banks, and they did reject it in some form before finally voting for it.

Still, the market did not bottom out until March 2009, as noted earlier. After that, while the market was recovering, there was the flash-crash. Some people here still remember that, I am sure.

 

[Blue Collar Guy]

You have nerve of steel. I didn't because I've already took a big loss in 2000-2003 time frame. I was 100% in stocks before the crash. My husband and I lost our jobs on top of it. As long as you still have your job then you can DCA in at a low price. But if you have to take money to cover job loss situation, it's not so pretty, especially when you don't know when you will get the next job. Interestingly, all 3 recesions, I lost jobs. 1990 is because I went on maternity leave, small company too. In 2001, I resigned from a stressful startup. In 2009, Obama cancelled my project, but I was actually lost my jobs in Jan 2010.

So I'm now older and wiser. I choose very conservative AA.

Can you kindly post when you lose your job? It might be the best recession predictor yet!

 

[NW-Bound]

How about your wife? Did you have health insurance through your wife? For me only in 1990 was my husband working in a small startup that was going to belly up so that's why we had to move to the Bay Area. In 2003-2004 he was unemployed. In 2009, again Obama cancelled his project. We took turn been unemployed. But we had health insurance during these periods except 2003-2004.

OK, I did have health insurance through my wife's employer. She did not quit until 2005. My wife just reminded me that she quit before I bought the 2nd home (and was doing part-time consultant). How daring I was!

My father's death in 2003 affected me greatly. He died after a period of miserable illness. That made me decide that as long as I have my health, I should not worry too much about money.

 

[Blue Collar Guy]

Here's something to refresh people's memory.

That incredibly volatile period in Sep-Oct 2008 when the market went up/down as much as 11% in a day corresponded to the time when uncertainties were at the highest. Congress was deliberating the bail-out of banks, and they did reject it in some form before finally voting for it.

Still, the market did not bottom out until March 2009, as noted earlier. After that, while the market was recovering, there was the flash-crash. Some people here still remember that, I am sure.

Thank you for the diary post, It was during these times, I didnt not even flip the channels for fear of seeing red arrows. I remember being a fan of watching old movies, I would turn directly to those channels.

 

[Fedup]

Can you kindly post when you lose your job? It might be the best recession predictor yet!

I just did in 2015 aka retirement, I walked away in 2001 too. The minute I realized the stock options at this highly claimed startup was just a mirage. In hindsight I was right, I walked out. Haha

 

[Blue Collar Guy]

I just did in 2015 aka retirement, I walked away in 2001 too. The minute I realized the stock options at this highly claimed startup was just a mirage. In hindsight I was right, I walked out. Haha

Hahahaha

 

[audreyh1]

Did fixed income side go down too? How did it do in 2008-2009? Not a bond person so that's my question.

Yes, quite dramatically. Corporate bonds were hit hard. They did recover more quickly than equities though - it was like a 3 month scare.

High yield bonds got clobbered worse.

Only the safest bonds - treasuries, tips, - went positive during this period.

Look at DODIX versus VBISX for illustration.

So a lot of folks felt like fixed income didn't help. I think the answer is that you had better be in high quality fixed income. If you are all corporate and high yield bonds, your fixed income won't help you during a market event like 2008.

 

[NW-Bound]

There were posters who said that not even US federal bonds were safe, and only Krugerrands would do. It was an exciting time.

 

[Blue Collar Guy]

Yes, quite dramatically. Corporate bonds were hit hard. They did recover more quickly than equities though - it was like a 3 month scare.

High yield bonds got clobbered worse.

Only the safest bonds - treasuries, tips, - went positive during this period.

Look at DODIX versus VBISX for illustration.

So a lot of folks felt like fixed income didn't help. I think the answer is that you had better be in high quality fixed income. If you are all corporate and high yield bonds, your fixed income won't help you during a market event like 2008.

I just noticed your signature line, As usual I have a story about travel agents. I think I will start a new thread on that. Ty for the DODIX versus VBISX

 

[Blue Collar Guy]

There were posters who said that not even US federal bonds were safe, and only Krugerrands would do. It was an exciting time.

It was very "exciting", My high blood pressure was even higher. The minute(maybe the first few seconds) I would her the topic of investing I would run in the other direction. When the next plummet happens, I will stick to what I think are humorous stories. Ill stay off the money threads.

 

[jebmke]

Yes, quite dramatically. Corporate bonds were hit hard. They did recover more quickly than equities though - it was like a 3 month scare.

High yield bonds got clobbered worse.

Only the safest bonds - treasuries, tips, - went positive during this period.

Look at DODIX versus VBISX for illustration.

So a lot of folks felt like fixed income didn't help. I think the answer is that you had better be in high quality fixed income. If you are all corporate and high yield bonds, your fixed income won't help you during a market event like 2008.

Although there was a period in the fall of 2008 when the market for Tips was shaky. Real yields rose to over 3%. I loaded up in October.

 

[jebmke]

March 09, 2009 was the day all 3 indices and my stash hit the bottom.

Compared to the top on October 31, 2007, the S&P was down to 44% of its previous high (1269 vs. 2804). The market lost 56%. My stash lost 37%.

Between those 2 dates, here are some terrifying days.

2008/09/04 DJ dropped 345, from 11533 to 11188.

2008/09/15 DJ dropped 504, from 11422 to 10918

2008/09/26 DJ dropped 778, from 11143 to 10365. S&P down 8.8%.

2008/10/06 DJ dropped 369, from 10325 to 9956

2008/10/07 DJ dropped 509, from 9956 to 9447

2008/10/09 DJ dropped 679, from 9258 to 8579

In between those terrible days, there were days when the DJ went up 937 on 2008/10/13 (SP up 11.6%), or 889 on 2008/10/27 (SP up 10.8%). The market kept bouncing up/down, but more down than up until it bottomed out in early March 2009.

I kept a diary, and that was what I just looked up. I also found that I had my 1st colonoscopy in that time frame (2008/09/30). The scary market did not keep me from traveling. We flew to Seattle, rented a car and did a road trip to Victoria and Vancouver in early Sep 2009.

Me scared? It's only money, not life and death. Life under a bridge is still better than no life, oui?

We went to Italy in the fall of 2009. The travel deals were phenomenal back then (it was also a great time to have work done on the house!). Once the debt market mostly righted itself I was less concerned. The fall of 2008 was more tense than 2009 for me.

 

[Fedup]

I remember we had a staycation. My husband and I splurged at the local restaurants that we hadn't been to for a while.

 

[Blue Collar Guy]

OMG, A staycation, Ill be using that one during happy hours.

 

[Moemg]

Looking back I am amazed that life went as normal .Despite losing 40% I still traveled in fact I took two big trips in 2009 & 2010 . I do a straight 4% of my stash and I really did not feel pinched . My lower balance got to be the new reality and I just adjusted . I did have a pension and ss to help my sanity .My 4% was just icing on the cake .

 

[street]

Moemg >>> so from those years (2008) did you recover and did you stay the course and didn't sell?

 

[Fedup]

Looking back I am amazed that life went as normal .Despite losing 40% I still traveled in fact I took two big trips in 2009 & 2010 . I do a straight 4% of my stash and I really did not feel pinched . My lower balance got to be the new reality and I just adjusted . I did have a pension and ss to help my sanity .My 4% was just icing on the cake .

Did you retire yet? We weren't.