Climate Change considerations on where to live?

[Andre1969]

I think the relative boredom, climate-wise, is what makes me want to stay in Maryland. We get hurricanes every once in awhile, but by the time they're here, they're more remnants than anything else. For the most part, nothing really memorable. I remember when I was younger, people would talk about Hazel (1954?) and Agnes (1972). Agnes was pretty famous because of all the flooding, and if you lived near a coast or major river, or any number of small towns in river gorges that tended to channel a lot of runoff, it left an impression on you. There was another storm, from 1960 I think. Carol, maybe? I remember when I was younger, the locals would bring up one that sounded like that.

Personally, David from '79 left a big impression on me, but that was mostly because I was only 9 years old, and it's the first hurricane I can really remember. In recent memory though, the only ones that stick in my mind were in 2003 and 2011. They both began with an "I"...Isabel and Irene, so I get them mixed up unless I google them.

The 2003 one sticks in my mind, because we had a huge mulberry tree that split in half. One half fell out into the yard, relatively harmlessly, although it squashed a grape trellis. The other half started to slowly list toward the house. My uncle and I cut it down as quickly as we could, and were able to get it down just as one part of it was starting to lean on the roof over the bathroom. Fortunately no damage. I just remember it because it was a lot of work.

The 2011 one sticks in my mind because it came a week after the "Great DC Earthquake of 2011" that the locals sometimes joke about. The storm itself was kind of a letdown, but somehow it managed to knock the power off at work. I remember we had no power Mon-Thurs. It came back on sometimes Thursday evening, but then they wanted to make sure the building was safe to enter, so we were off Friday, as well. And then I think that was Labor Day weekend, so we got the following Monday off, too!

We won't have those kinds of unexpected vacation anymore, in this era of take-home computers and teleworking!

 

[Mark1]

Just interested if/how others are factoring climate change projections into account when retirement planning.

Most locations we considered as retirement locations were well above sea level and well outside hurricane strike zones, so those two items didn't fact into retirement location at all. I did figure in an increase of a couple of degrees of the average temperature over the next 25-30 years, but that only ruled out a few areas that were probably already too hot for us. Now if I had planned on a single location for a 40-50 year retirement, I likely would have moved further north.

 

[Chuckanut]

One thing folks should consider is your tolerance for any kind of disaster. Have you ever been through a flood? Major disasters are different from watching the news. I remember my late in-laws.

They built a home on Marathon Key, a beautiful place halfway down the Florida Keys. You could look out over the Gulf and Atlantic from the same room. I asked about hurricanes and flooding, "no problem they turn all the lanes northbound to evacuate". Then Andrew threatened and they couldn't get out of their neighborhood! BIL flew his plane in and was the last plane out of Marathon before they shut down the airport. While there was no damage they put the place on the market a few weeks later.

Your story reminds me of Paradise CA last year during the fires. One road in and out of the place, and it was blocked by burnt out cars and debris from the fire storm. Had it not been for some guy who fired up a bulldozer and cleared the roadway, who knows how many others might have perished.

 

[Badger]

We are 2.5 blocks to the ocean in a small town in N.E. Florida so I watch the sunrise most every morning during my early bike ride on mostly deserted streets. I thought long and hard for 6 years about where to locate once retired. At that time I had been here for about 50 years and my wife for 65 years. I did all the research for potential retirement areas that was available on the web during that time with a long list of requirements (medical, universities, military base, weather, outdoor activities, cost of living, fresh seafood, etc. etc. etc.) and could not come up with a better place for us. The additional bonus was we wouldn't have to pack and move.

Yes we worry a little during hurricane season but so far there has been no serious damage to our area (none to our home) except for some flooding that cleared up in a day. Otherwise it is a little tropical paradise with everything imaginable for entertainment, restaurants, hardware stores, and other conveniences.

We are in our early 70s so by the time the ocean rises sufficiently to put us underwater we will more than likely either be dead or in a nursing home close to a permanent expiration date.
No worries about earthquakes, or tornadoes, or flooding from snow melt, or freezing winter weather, or being snow bound (blizzards), or wildfires, or dust storms, or ice storms.

Preferences are to be near either water or mountains. As beautiful as they are we don't care for deserts or long expanses of flat open grass lands.
I think we will stay and not worry about something that we won't live long enough for us to be concerned about.



Cheers!

 

[Bigdawg]

I actually have given some thought to this and looked at this interactive map of potential sea level rise. https://coastal.climatecentral.org/...urn_level=return_level_10&slr_model=kopp_2017

The sky must be falling. I used the interactive map you posted and it shows my house under water in 2040. Really? Highly doubt it. I am currently 6 feet above sea level. You are trying to tell me the Potomac and Chesapeake will rise over 6 feet in the next 20 years? Alarmist maybe. Just a little. It has basically risen zero inches in the 8 years I have been at this address. Call me a skeptic.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

We are 2.5 blocks to the ocean in a small town in N.E. Florida so I watch the sunrise most every morning during my early bike ride on mostly deserted streets. I thought long and hard for 6 years about where to locate once retired. At that time I had been here for about 50 years and my wife for 65 years. I did all the research for potential retirement areas that was available on the web during that time with a long list of requirements (medical, universities, military base, weather, outdoor activities, cost of living, fresh seafood, etc. etc. etc.) and could not come up with a better place for us. The additional bonus was we wouldn't have to pack and move.

Yes we worry a little during hurricane season but so far there has been no serious damage to our area (none to our home) except for some flooding that cleared up in a day. Otherwise it is a little tropical paradise with everything imaginable for entertainment, restaurants, hardware stores, and other conveniences.

We are in our early 70s so by the time the ocean rises sufficiently to put us underwater we will more than likely either be dead or in a nursing home close to a permanent expiration date.
No worries about earthquakes, or tornadoes, or flooding from snow melt, or freezing winter weather, or being snow bound (blizzards), or wildfires, or dust storms, or ice storms. Cheers!

We sure to live in a nice place for all the reasons you mention.

 

[Gumby]

The sky must be falling. I used the interactive map you posted and it shows my house under water in 2040. Really? Highly doubt it. I am currently 6 feet above sea level. You are trying to tell me the Potomac and Chesapeake will rise over 6 feet in the next 20 years? Alarmist maybe. Just a little. It has basically risen zero inches in the 8 years I have been at this address. Call me a skeptic.

Then change the assumptions in the model to less dire ones (you can do that) or find a model you like better. I don't vouch for the model. I just note that even under the most dire assumptions of that particular model, I won't need to move.

But perhaps all you really want to do is argue with me. I would advise against that because it will drag the thread off topic and it has been going well so far.

 

[Retch The Grate]

The sky must be falling. I used the interactive map you posted and it shows my house under water in 2040. Really? Highly doubt it. I am currently 6 feet above sea level. You are trying to tell me the Potomac and Chesapeake will rise over 6 feet in the next 20 years? Alarmist maybe. Just a little. It has basically risen zero inches in the 8 years I have been at this address. Call me a skeptic.

What settings did you use, did you read the disclaimers and statement about what the map shows? Did you set it to just sea level rise or did you leave the flood setting on? Did you leave it on bad luck, etc.? It's a planning tool for exploring different scenarios, if you didn't turn off floods its just saying you are in a flood zone in 2040.

 

[Ian S]

We still plan on retiring to Arizona. I haven’t noticed much climate change in the Phoenix area in the 18 years that we have been going there. It’s usually hot in the summer, nice in winter.

Well, this summer has been record setting in so many ways. Something like 54 days when the high temperature was 110F or above (old record was 33). At least 13 days of 115F or higher (old record of 8 I believe.) 28 days when the low didn't dip below 90F! When I moved to Phoenix in 1988, a night when the temperature didn't drop below 90F was quite unusual and newsworthy. Also this summer is the hottest on record and August was the hottest month on record. I believe Phoenix will at some point become unlivable. It's part of the reason, we moved north to the Sedona area which is considerably cooler.

 

[Canoeboy]

The sky must be falling. I used the interactive map you posted and it shows my house under water in 2040. Really? Highly doubt it. I am currently 6 feet above sea level. You are trying to tell me the Potomac and Chesapeake will rise over 6 feet in the next 20 years? Alarmist maybe. Just a little. It has basically risen zero inches in the 8 years I have been at this address. Call me a skeptic.

There is a big difference between projections of mean sea level rise (Average ocean rise currently around 1/8 inch per year) and increased likelihood and severity of high water events. The flooding projections represent the latter.

 

[geeky_grrl]

I've been thinking about this more and more lately. I miss sunshine and clear skies of the desert Southwest and have thought I might end up back there, but the summers have gotten so much more brutal and I'm worried about water. I'm not sure where to go though - the lack of sunshine in the winter bothers me a lot where we live and I'd like to move to a state with lower income taxes that Oregon. I guess I need to look at the maps more and see if there are any sunny areas that aren't going to become too inhospitable over the next 20-40 years.

 

[timo2]

I've been thinking about this more and more lately. I miss sunshine and clear skies of the desert Southwest and have thought I might end up back there, but the summers have gotten so much more brutal and I'm worried about water. I'm not sure where to go though - the lack of sunshine in the winter bothers me a lot where we live and I'd like to move to a state with lower income taxes that Oregon. I guess I need to look at the maps more and see if there are any sunny areas that aren't going to become too inhospitable over the next 20-40 years.

The water situation in the southwest is very specific to each water jurisdiction. After 20 years of drought, some places are not too bad off, some are disasters waiting to happen. So check out each specific place, as a bad water jurisdiction might be adjacent to a well managed water system. For instance, a current trend, started by Scottsdale AZ, is to recharge the aquifer with treated wastewater. Rio Rancho NM (where I am) does this also. But places with only Colorado River water as a source might be in trouble.

 

[Dash man]

The sky must be falling. I used the interactive map you posted and it shows my house under water in 2040. Really? Highly doubt it. I am currently 6 feet above sea level. You are trying to tell me the Potomac and Chesapeake will rise over 6 feet in the next 20 years? Alarmist maybe. Just a little. It has basically risen zero inches in the 8 years I have been at this address. Call me a skeptic.

Back in 2006 when we bought our first place in Florida, I was shown projected sea level rise maps by a couple of people, who were telling me our place would be under water within ten years. Ten years later we sold that place and bought another place (a condo) on the beach. We’ve also purchased a home on the Jersey Shore two blocks from the beach. Insurance isn’t bad for either. $2,000 covers homeowners and flood insurance for our Jersey Shore home. I’m skeptical too.

 

[Gumby]

Mods - just out of curiosity, why is it okay to discuss climate change in this thread (it is even in the title of the thread), but not in other threads (like the West Coast fire thread)? When the rules are inconsistent like this, it's a little hard to figure out what topics are okay to discuss, and which are not.

MODERATOR RESPONSE -- It is not the topic per se. It is the ancillary nastiness that often accompanies it. The principal consideration in allowing discussion to continue is whether, in the moderators' estimation, that discussion has veered, is veering or is likely to veer into whether or not climate change is actually happening and who is at fault- with all the attendant hectoring from one side and strident denials by the other. This particular thread, so far, has avoided that. People are talking about their actual or potential response, assuming climate change is occurring and will continue.

So, keep up the good work everyone. Thanks.

 

[Ronstar]

The rising water levels got me thinking. Lake Michigan is now at approx 581.9 MSL. High was 582.3, Low 576.0. The lake behind my house is at 534, my walkout basement is at 548. I am not in a special flood hazard area per fema.

My lake drains eventually to the Illinois River at Elev 486. (96' below Lake Michigan Elevation). Record high water at this point of the river was 503.4 on 4/19/2013. (3 of the top 5 river crests ever recorded have occurred since 2013). The lake in my back yard was probably 2' high when the river crested at 17'.

I'm not a hydrologist, but I think the Great Lakes would have to rise more than 100' before my lake would get up to my basement level.

So I'm probably ok from water. Tornados are another matter.

In any case, I think the only safe places to move in the US would be Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. Far from rising seas, forest fires, hurricanes, tornados and earthquakes. And probably less negatively affected by climate change than most states. I would definitely move to one of these states if they didn't have nasty winters.

 

[Mr._Graybeard]

In any case, I think the only safe places to move in the US would be Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. Far from rising seas, forest fires, hurricanes, tornados and earthquakes. And probably less negatively affected by climate change than most states. I would definitely move to one of these states if they didn't have nasty winters.

North Dakota sees a lot of flooding, mainly along the Red River, but also in other regions. Minot got hit hard in 2011.

In the late '90s DW and I were up there to visit my relatives, and we took a ride up to Devil's Lake (Spirit Lake to the Dakota tribes). The lake is a large runoff basin like the Great Salt Lake, without a natural exit. Over the previous few unusually wet years it had grown by square miles. It was quite eerie, and gave me an idea why it was known as Spirit Lake.

Here's a story about the phenomenon and its impact on those who live nearby. https://modernfarmer.com/2018/08/hell-in-high-water-the-story-of-devils-lake-north-dakota/

 

[Leo1277]

How to not draw a map

Here is the map from the report quoted by OP about flood impacts in Florida. At first glance, it looks like half of South Florida is under water, which of course looks really scary!

However, what they have done is look at the state county by county, and for each county they estimate a percentage of properties that are affected by 2050. That simply means that all counties that have ocean front are colored "at risk" and since Florida is famous for its beaches, that is the majority of counties. And since the counties especially in South Florida are very large, this means half of the state is colored.

DUH!

The reality is that in the affected counties, around 2 percent of all homes are estimated to be under the high tide line. But the areas where that happens are well known to anybody looking for real estate here, and it's just something one can easily avoid. However, some folks don't care and have enough $$$ to buy the oceanfront mansion now, even if they would have to raise it up in 20 years for more $$$

I wish people were more careful about how they represent data.

 

[Gremlin]

I live in the Black Hills of South Dakota. We are definitely at risk for forest fires, esp after the pine beetle moved through. But I feel fortunate that the BHNF fire managers are pretty aggressive about fire management, including prescribed burns, clearing etc. The state also has a nice incentive for private land owners, a reduction in your property taxes if you thin your trees ( it requires a certain amount of acreage to be involved). Our neighbors just went through the process. We own 40 acres and will be applying next year.

I like the winters here. Granted, I lived in Alaska and loved it there too. Spent the first 30 years of my life in Florida but couldn't wait to get out. Hate heat and humidity. Spent 9 months in Seattle area and hated the 9 months of no sun and constant rain. Everybody has different ideas of what constitutes ideal weather! I feel like South Dakota offers the perfect mix for me. We might get cold (It's gets colder in the Eastern part of our state. It's not so bad where we are) and snow but it is pretty sunny even through the winter. As a matter of fact, we are completley off grid with solar, no poles with electrical lines to our house.

I discovered as long as I have sunshine on my face, I'm happy. Even if it is 20 degrees F outside.

The rising water levels got me thinking. Lake Michigan is now at approx 581.9 MSL. High was 582.3, Low 576.0. The lake behind my house is at 534, my walkout basement is at 548. I am not in a special flood hazard area per fema.

My lake drains eventually to the Illinois River at Elev 486. (96' below Lake Michigan Elevation). Record high water at this point of the river was 503.4 on 4/19/2013. (3 of the top 5 river crests ever recorded have occurred since 2013). The lake in my back yard was probably 2' high when the river crested at 17'.

I'm not a hydrologist, but I think the Great Lakes would have to rise more than 100' before my lake would get up to my basement level.

So I'm probably ok from water. Tornados are another matter.

In any case, I think the only safe places to move in the US would be Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. Far from rising seas, forest fires, hurricanes, tornados and earthquakes. And probably less negatively affected by climate change than most states. I would definitely move to one of these states if they didn't have nasty winters.

 

[Gumby]

I live in the Black Hills of South Dakota....

We visited the Black Hills last September. It was one of the most astonishingly beautiful places we have ever been. If I could, I would drive south down Needles Highway and back north on Iron Mountain Road every day. As it is, I'm glad that I got to do it once in my life. We also greatly enjoyed the road through Spearfish Canyon.

 

[Leo1277]

Why many still like South Florida

One major factor is of course the weather. But mind you, not only in January when the average daytime high is around 80 in South Florida, but also in summer! Here is the map from the report of the number of yearly "wet bulb" days, i.e. days that are very hot and humid. There is a 300 mile wide band from Lake Michigan all the way to the Mississippi delta that is affected badly. But South Florida has much fewer of these extreme heat days, and is comparable to Michigan, Wisconsin, and New York State, and many others where we would consider summer weather rather reasonable. That's what makes the weather here so special to many - I personally spend about 350 days per year doing all my work on my covered back patio, including right now. High temps range from 80 in the winter to 90 in the summer, very rarely do we reach 92.

Of course there are hurricanes, but the new building codes go a long way in preventing damage. My area took a direct hit by Wilma in 2005 (it is really cool to see the clear sky and have no wind for 15 min while in the eye of the storm), but the damage was limited to about $1000 in loose roof tiles, and that was the last damage to the home from any storm.

Surely the impact of storms varies widely, and others taking a direct hit may be less lucky. But one usually has days to prepare and, if desired, get out after the home is "buttoned up" as they say here. And of course there is insurance for any damage that does happen.

 

[Canoeboy]

NOW saying that, wild horses could not convince me to live anywhere on the northern Gulf coast down to Padre Island. That is a disaster waiting to happen. Same for the upper east coast from say .... Charleston up to the Jersey shore. Same for Tornado alley and flyover country. They get way worse weather than we do tucked away in the Florida NE Elbow.

Not all of the “Upper East Coast“ is created equal. Looking at historical storm paths Last night - In the past 150 years no hurricane has made (First) landfall in Virginia or Maryland. The storms that impact both states make landfall further south as they tend to move in a NE direction. Storms weaken as they move 1) north and 2) over land. Only one category 3 storm Recorded in this Time period. Believe that Hit the Outer Banks and went over Virginia Beach, then back out to sea. Carolina’s, Delaware, and New Jersey However do get direct hits due to geography.

 

[Out-to-Lunch]

The rising water levels got me thinking. Lake Michigan is now at approx 581.9 MSL. High was 582.3, Low 576.0. The lake behind my house is at 534, my walkout basement is at 548. I am not in a special flood hazard area per fema.

My lake drains eventually to the Illinois River at Elev 486. (96' below Lake Michigan Elevation). Record high water at this point of the river was 503.4 on 4/19/2013. (3 of the top 5 river crests ever recorded have occurred since 2013). The lake in my back yard was probably 2' high when the river crested at 17'.

I'm not a hydrologist, but I think the Great Lakes would have to rise more than 100' before my lake would get up to my basement level.

So I'm probably ok from water. Tornados are another matter.

In any case, I think the only safe places to move in the US would be Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. Far from rising seas, forest fires, hurricanes, tornados and earthquakes. And probably less negatively affected by climate change than most states. I would definitely move to one of these states if they didn't have nasty winters.

I agree that you don't have to worry about rising water levels, but I am unsure what the source of you concern was. The climate-change factors that make the oceans rise do not make the Great Lakes rise in the same fashion. They rise or fall depending on things like rain, ice cover, snowfall... Some of these are affected by our changing climate, but not in the same way that ocean levels are affected.

 

[Ronstar]

I agree that you don't have to worry about rising water levels, but I am unsure what the source of you concern was. The climate-change factors that make the oceans rise do not make the Great Lakes rise in the same fashion. They rise or fall depending on things like rain, ice cover, snowfall... Some of these are affected by our changing climate, but not in the same way that ocean levels are affected.

While climate change presents some different challenges to oceans as opposed to lakes, the end result is the same. Rising water levels.

 

[Leo1277]

While climate change presents some different challenges to oceans as opposed to lakes, the end result is the same. Rising water levels.

But lakes do not have universally rising water levels. The oceans do, primarily due to ice melt in Greenland and Antarctica, as well as warming ocean water temperatures that makes the volume expand. Since all oceans are connected, the process is worldwide and universal.

Lakes, on the other hand, often suffer from evaporation losses due to higher ambient temperatures or improper water management of tributary rivers, which actually leads to shrinkage. Look at what's happening at the Dead Sea (actually a lake) which is nowadays living up to its name and really dying, or the Aral Sea which was a one of the largest lakes in Asia and has lost about 90% of its surface area in a mere 30 years. In the US, there are Lake Powell and to a lesser extent Lake Mead that are drying up rapidly and water levels have dropped about 100 ft from their earlier levels.

The latter ones are a real pity, they were my favorite boating places in the US because of their breathtaking scenic beauty, but they have now lost most of their charm.

 

[Gremlin]

We visited the Black Hills last September. It was one of the most astonishingly beautiful places we have ever been. If I could, I would drive south down Needles Highway and back north on Iron Mountain Road every day. As it is, I'm glad that I got to do it once in my life. We also greatly enjoyed the road through Spearfish Canyon.

They close Needles highway in the winter because they don't plow the roads. My favorite winter activity is parking our car at Sylvan Lake and walking up Needles highway. We like to have a picnic at the Needle formation or just past the tunnel. Blue skies, clean white snow on the ground, breathtaking scenery and absolutely no people. Heaven on earth : )