Tesla Model 3 deliveries

[Ready]

I left for a week to go on an Alaskan cruise and returned last night to find my thread on the Model 3 had turned political and was shut down while I was gone. So I guess I'll try again, and request that we just keep this thread related to people who either have a Tesla Model 3 on order or are considering purchasing one.

I would appreciate if we could refrain from posting all the reasons you don't want or need a Tesla. There's another thread that deals with that.

Anyhoo, I have to choose between the $49K model, with a December-February delivery date, or the base $35K model, with a February-April delivery date. I don't really need the larger battery. I'll have to see about the premium interior options but they are not that important to me. So it comes down to whether buying the more expensive model might make the difference between getting the full $7,500 federal tax rebate, or possibly only getting half because they sold more than 200,000 cars before mine is delivered.

I'm also wondering if anyone has heard whether anything beyond the first batch of 30 cars has been delivered. I have not heard any updates on this since the first 30 were announced.

 

[jonat]

From what I read in another forum, it's unlikely Tesla will hit the 200K target before June 2018. The $49K version also has other upgrades not present in the 35K model. Note though that some things you may want, such as autopilot support, are extra.

I'm not in the market for this car at the present time, but if I were, I would go for the higher optioned model. If the price difference is a deal breaker for you, that's another issue. I have been following a thread in another forum with many people who are "in the queue" and have not seen mention of additional deliveries.

 

[nash031]

I left for a week to go on an Alaskan cruise and returned last night to find my thread on the Model 3 had turned political and was shut down while I was gone. So I guess I'll try again, and request that we just keep this thread related to people who either have a Tesla Model 3 on order or are considering purchasing one.



I would appreciate if we could refrain from posting all the reasons you don't want or need a Tesla. There's another thread that deals with that.



Anyhoo, I have to choose between the $49K model, with a December-February delivery date, or the base $35K model, with a February-April delivery date. I don't really need the larger battery. I'll have to see about the premium interior options but they are not that important to me. So it comes down to whether buying the more expensive model might make the difference between getting the full $7,500 federal tax rebate, or possibly only getting half because they sold more than 200,000 cars before mine is delivered.



I'm also wondering if anyone has heard whether anything beyond the first batch of 30 cars has been delivered. I have not heard any updates on this since the first 30 were announced.

Your question doesn't make sense at first blush. If you don't need the larger battery, and you don't care about the interior upgrades, why would you spend (14000 - 7500 =) $6500 more for features you don't want instead of getting the car you want with a smaller rebate.

Buying something you don't want or need just because it's on sale is taught in Consumerism 101, I think. Take the rebate size out of it and just look at the cost of the vehicle:

Pay ~$41,500 for a car with features you say you don't need or care about.
Pay ~$31,500 for the car you actually want three months later.

That's not a terribly hard choice to me.

 

[Ready]

I think I'm going to need to see the car with the interior upgrades before I can decide if I want them. If I do, then it comes down to whether I want to pay an extra $9K to save an additional $3,500 in tax credits. I'm thinking that from a resale point of view it may make sense to pay for the bigger battery if I can get the full tax credit. Plus it would be nice to have the extra range, even though I think I will rarely use it.

 

[nash031]

I think I'm going to need to see the car with the interior upgrades before I can decide if I want them. If I do, then it comes down to whether I want to pay an extra $9K to save an additional $3,500 in tax credits. I'm thinking that from a resale point of view it may make sense to pay for the bigger battery if I can get the full tax credit. Plus it would be nice to have the extra range, even though I think I will rarely use it.

If it were me, I would want the largest battery I could get. My primary concern with any electric would be range anxiety, and it would be exacerbated by a smaller battery. That would be priority 1 over any comfort upgrades, IMO. That said, buyer's remorse prevents me from pulling the trigger on a $100K Model S, and I'm in "wait and see" mode on Tesla as a whole, specifically whether the existing and expanding infrastructure can support the "boom" of Model 3s about to come on the market.

I feel like I'm missing something on why you're bent on getting the full federal tax credit, even if it means paying more money for options/features you don't want. Is it because you're thinking about resale value? Paying more money for a depreciating asset to lock in a federal tax credit is still a losing proposition financially, IMO... you're likely not going to see most of that $10K difference in resale, and resale value of Teslas is a big question right now based on software upgrades, long term reliability, and battery life. Have you considered that the vehicle you purchase in a few months will likely be somewhat obsolete in three years due to software updates on newer models? Average resale on a Model S at AutoTrader is ~$62,000, with 4 year old 60s asking in the 40s and 50s.

Sorry to play devil's advocate so much. I love the cars. I'd take a Model S in a heartbeat if I could get over the value side. Just considering all the reasons I've steered myself away, and why I'm not currently considering a Model 3 to replace my car in about two years.

 

[ERD50]

..., and I'm in "wait and see" mode on Tesla as a whole, specifically whether the existing and expanding infrastructure can support the "boom" of Model 3s about to come on the market. ....

By "infrastructure", do you mean Tesla's Supercharger network (and/or other public charging stations), or the grid infrastructure?

I can't comment on Tesla's network, but the grid itself has plenty of capacity for lots and lots of people charging EVs at night. The grid is idling at night, even a very high population of EVs, IIRC, might add ~ 10% to the load - no problem.

Charging during the day is another issue. If you are in an area where the grid is stressing to provide A/C on a hot summer day, well, any extra load is a problem. You can really get into a "straw that broke the camel's back" scenario, and that "straw" blows out a transformer!

-ERD50

 

[nash031]

By "infrastructure", do you mean Tesla's Supercharger network (and/or other public charging stations), or the grid infrastructure?

Tesla's infrastructure, specifically the supercharger network, but also their service network.

 

[Bamaman]

Speaking of Tesla: There is a UTube out there where a young man stripped out the interior of a S model with the biggest battery. Then he went out drag racing on city streets. He simply ate every street car they put.up against him. The electric motor torque put thru All Wheel Drive came off the line like a cannon--straight without smoke.

It is a very beautiful motorcar with incredible performance.

 

[swakyaby]

I read the federal tax credit phaseout rules carefully as I also have a deposit on a Model 3. Although it's all speculation, I think you should order the options you really want, as in the less expensive battery, and here's why:

It's widely expected that the earliest Tesla will reach 200,000 sales in the first quarter of 2018. If so, the earliest to begin phaseout of the full federal tax credit is in the 3rd quarter of 2018. That is because the federal tax credit is phased out over time beginning the 2nd quarter after the quarter in which a manufacturer reaches a total of 200,000 BEV vehicles sold.

So if you order the lower battery option, and receive and register your Model 3 before July 1 2018, you should still receive your full federal tax credit, IMHO.

Since we're talking EV incentives, California currently offers $7,000 rebate to a 2-person household with income < $48,720. Is this another incentive?

 

[Chuckanut]

Have you considered that the vehicle you purchase in a few months will likely be somewhat obsolete in three years due to software updates on newer models? Average resale on a Model S at AutoTrader is ~$62,000, with 4 year old 60s asking in the 40s and 50s.

Would not that be true of just about any modern automobile?

Some of the 'basic' models sold today now have features that were not available when i purchased my car 3+ years ago.

 

[Ready]

Since we're talking EV incentives, California currently offers $7,000 rebate to a 2-person household with income < $48,720. Is this another incentive?

Unfortunately I would not qualify for this. Someone who makes less than $48K is not likely to buy a Tesla, unless they are retired and just living off a lot of assets. That may apply to some forum members here, but likely not much of the overall population in California. A few years ago the state offered a $2,500 rebate with no income cap. That was a nice benefit, but sadly, it's gone.

 

[swakyaby]

Someone who makes less than $48K is not likely to buy a Tesla, unless they are retired and just living off a lot of assets.

Since I plan to retire the end of this year and live off my assets for a few years, it might apply to me, we shall see.

 

[nash031]

Would not that be true of just about any modern automobile?

Some of the 'basic' models sold today now have features that were not available when i purchased my car 3+ years ago.

Yes, which is my point. Ready is talking about spending more for features he says he doesn't want in hopes of improving resale value. That's a losing proposition on any car... Teslas included.

 

[Ready]

Yes, which is my point. Ready is talking about spending more for features he says he doesn't want in hopes of improving resale value. That's a losing proposition on any car... Teslas included.

There is some dollar amount that would make it attractive for me to take the upgraded battery. For $9K I would pass. At $6,500 I'm willing to think about it.

 

[fiyesno]

For people with no regular income, the $7,500 tax credit might be a good reason to generate $7,501 in taxes via a Roth conversion. Then the rebate goes toward building a Roth ladder....

 

[nash031]

There is some dollar amount that would make it attractive for me to take the upgraded battery. For $9K I would pass. At $6,500 I'm willing to think about it.

Fair enough. Still, I'm not sure you're looking at it the right way. As I spelled out in my first post in this thread, it really comes down to a $10,000 difference between the cars, even if by taking the less expensive car you get a smaller federal tax credit. That difference is even larger if you manage to get the full $7500 on the less expensive car. I guess if you rationalize it as $10,000 for the upgraded battery and interior enhancements instead of $14,000, that could be justifiable if that's your trigger level. It strikes me as walking into a store and seeing the $450 handbag marked 15% off and exclaiming, "Look how much money we'd save!". YMMV.

For people with no regular income, the $7,500 tax credit might be a good reason to generate $7,501 in taxes via a Roth conversion. Then the rebate goes toward building a Roth ladder....

Good point. I can see how that might give someone a push, even though in the end it's still spending money to somehow save other money.

 

[Animorph]

We're planning on buying a Model 3. We already have a Model X we use for road trips. The 3 would be for local driving, so I think the smaller battery works nicely for us. I think we'll probably get the premium interior options, we're used to that stuff now. It is tempting to get it earlier with the larger battery, but I think that would be the main reason for getting it. It does seem like the full federal tax credit will be available through the first two quarters of 2018, so I think we'll have some options without having to buy more than we want. Maybe there will be a little more clarity by the time we can order, though that should be just a month or two away.

 

[Ready]

I still find it odd that there have been no deliveries announced beyond the first 30, and yet they plan to produce 20,000 per month by December. What's been happening on the production line since the first batch of cars were delivered?

 

[Ready]

Fair enough. Still, I'm not sure you're looking at it the right way. As I spelled out in my first post in this thread, it really comes down to a $10,000 difference between the cars, even if by taking the less expensive car you get a smaller federal tax credit. That difference is even larger if you manage to get the full $7500 on the less expensive car. I guess if you rationalize it as $10,000 for the upgraded battery and interior enhancements instead of $14,000, that could be justifiable if that's your trigger level. It strikes me as walking into a store and seeing the $450 handbag marked 15% off and exclaiming, "Look how much money we'd save!". YMMV.

Nash,

I don't think my brain is wired the same way as yours. I simply look at an item's purchase price and it's value to me personally. While I would enjoy the more comfortable interior and the fancier options, they are not necessary. But at some price I don't mind paying for them. It just comes down to my subjective valuation of whether I would rather have the nicer interior or an extra $5K in the bank. If the interior upgrades were only $1K I wouldn't even give it a second thought. If they were $15K, I also wouldn't give it a second thought.

But both the interior upgrades and the battery upgrade have some value to me. I just have to decide what that is. And that's why I started this thread...to see how others are looking at the options and deciding which ones are worthwhile to them...knowing everyone is different but still curious to see how people are thinking about them.

 

[nash031]

Nash,



I don't think my brain is wired the same way as yours. I simply look at an item's purchase price and it's value to me personally. While I would enjoy the more comfortable interior and the fancier options, they are not necessary. But at some price I don't mind paying for them. It just comes down to my subjective valuation of whether I would rather have the nicer interior or an extra $5K in the bank. If the interior upgrades were only $1K I wouldn't even give it a second thought. If they were $15K, I also wouldn't give it a second thought.



But both the interior upgrades and the battery upgrade have some value to me. I just have to decide what that is. And that's why I started this thread...to see how others are looking at the options and deciding which ones are worthwhile to them...knowing everyone is different but still curious to see how people are thinking about them.

No worries! Just playing devil's advocate based on what you had said. I look forward to pictures. [emoji1]

Personally, I'd get the upgraded battery and the interior options, but I love cars!

 

[FIREmenow]

I'll just throw a little wrench in here....

There is data that suggests that cycle life of a lithium battery bank varies inversely with the (repeated) depth of discharge. Therefore, buying a larger battery bank, even if you weren't using it for longer range, would make the batteries last longer

Table 2 estimates the number of discharge/charge cycles Li-ion can deliver at various DoD levels before the battery capacity drops to 70 percent. DoD constitutes a full charge followed by a discharge to the indicated state-of-charge (SoC) level in the table.

Table 2: Cycle life as a function of depth of discharge. A partial discharge reduces stress and prolongs battery life, so does a partial charge. Elevated temperature and high currents also affect cycle life.

Note: 100% DoD is a full cycle; 10% is very brief. Cycling in mid-state-of-charge would have best longevity.

Depth of discharge / Discharge cycles (NMC / LiPO4)
--------------------- -----------------------------------
100% DoD ~300 / 600
80% DoD ~400 / 900
60% DoD ~600 / 1,500
40% DoD ~1,500 / 3,000
20% DoD ~1,500 / 9,000
10% DoD ~10,000 / 15,000

From: How to Prolong Lithium-based Batteries - Battery University

 

[swakyaby]

We're planning on buying a Model 3. We already have a Model X we use for road trips. The 3 would be for local driving, so I think the smaller battery works nicely for us.

We have a similar plan as we own a Model S with a 300 mile battery and most of the upgrades. This is the one we use for traveling up and down California.
Planning to purchase a smaller battery Model 3 for mostly local driving for one of us.

 

[Chuckanut]

I'll just throw a little wrench in here....

There is data that suggests that cycle life of a lithium battery bank varies inversely with the (repeated) depth of discharge. Therefore, buying a larger battery bank, even if you weren't using it for longer range, would make the batteries last longer



From: How to Prolong Lithium-based Batteries - Battery University

Perhaps, but don't they do that already with Hybrids by keeping the charge level somewhere between 80% and 20% so as to ease the strain on the batteries and increase their life? I imagine all electric vehicles do the same thing. Or maybe not

 

[RunningBum]

Perhaps, but don't they do that already with Hybrids by keeping the charge level somewhere between 80% and 20% so as to ease the strain on the batteries and increase their life? I imagine all electric vehicles do the same thing. Or maybe not

How can they, at least on the bottom end? With a hybrid, they can go to gas mode. With an all-electric, unless you want it to die with 20% capacity left, it keeps going. Best they can do would be a warning indicator, which maybe they have.

On the charge side, Tesla owners or experts would know whether there is an option to keep it from fully charging, without manual intervention, or if that's even beneficial.

 

[FIREmenow]

Perhaps, but don't they do that already with Hybrids by keeping the charge level somewhere between 80% and 20% so as to ease the strain on the batteries and increase their life? I imagine all electric vehicles do the same thing. Or maybe not

Yes, but if I have the same (small-ish) daily drive-mile requirement, and I buy a bigger battery and don't discharge them as much prior to each recharging, then they stay closer to the 80% all the time. The benefit is linear (to a point).