12/14/2022 Stock Market Prediction (after Powell’s 2 PM eastern decision)

[RetiredAt49]

I suspect this will be a short thread (by design) but just curious to see who can accurately predict the 12/14/2022 daily S&P 500 gain/loss by the closing bell.

I’ll go first but first a comment… the market has already baked in and expecting a .50 rate hike. Mr Powell will use some strong language towards fighting inflation but he’ll have to acknowledge that inflation is cooling.

My guess is that the S&P 500 will close up 5.28% and most of that increase will happen in the last two hours of trading. I’d love to day trade this action but I’m traveling.

 

[NW-Bound]

I cannot predict what the market will do. It may go up, or go down.

But I know how I will act in response.

 

[audreyh1]

There are often big see-saws after the Fed announcement which occurs late in the trading day.

Don’t particularly care about the end level. 5%+ is a huge move for 1 day. 5.28% would take us all the way back near the peak of the August rally.

 

[Lsbcal]

My guess is it will be +-1%. I am tempering my enthusiasm for a very positive equity rally. Logical brain says no big move but emotion says yeah let's go, off to the races!

 

[Lsbcal]

I cannot predict what the market will do. It may go up, or go down.

But I know how I will act in response.

which is ...?

 

[VanWinkle]

I'm gonna find a long bar and do the Pee-Wee Herman dance when the market moves up over the next 12 months.

Yes, I've done it before,

VW

 

[COcheesehead]

An old trader that I respect said she never trades on Fed announcement days. Too unpredictable.

 

[NW-Bound]

which is ...?

If it goes up a lot, I will sell OTM call options on my stocks that go up the most.

If it goes down a lot, I will look to sell OTM put options on some stocks that go down the most. These can be my existing stocks, or new stocks that meet some criteria.

 

[Fermion]

If it goes up a lot, I will sell OTM call options on my stocks that go up the most.

If it goes down a lot, I will look to sell OTM put options on some stocks that go down the most. These can be my existing stocks, or new stocks that meet some criteria.

What criteria are you using nowadays for new stocks?

 

[NW-Bound]

Eh, that's proprietary data.

PS. Basically, I like to stay diversified and to have a bit in all sectors of the economy. I look at my portfolio, and see where I have gaps. If my OTM puts get assigned, they will help fill the gaps. I would pick a stock that looks the best in that sector in terms of fundamentals and what I think is its prospects.

I have made plenty of wrong choices, but as I found out, by making many little bets, as long as I am right more often than wrong, I make money.


PPS. I only started this tactic 3 years ago, when my brokerage dropped the fee for option trading to 35c/contract. Stock trades have always been free for me, due to the account status. At $0.35/contract, that is nothing when I can pick up $50 to $500 in option premium each contract. I even do contracts for $20. I just have to sell more of them, all expiring 1 to 2 weeks, with most becoming worthless. It's like selling lottery tickets.

 

[jim584672]

5 min in +400, 15 min in -400, ends unch.

 

[NW-Bound]

The Fed released a statement.

Judging from the market instant drop, I think it must have said something like "the spanking shall continue".

A media conference is coming up in a few minutes.


PS. I don't have access to TV at all, let alone cable. But when I hit update on my laptop browser, the thing hang up for a long time. Thought my Internet connection was broken, but it was not. I guess too many guys hit "Sell" button at the same time doing online trade, and it bogged down the Internet.

 

[RetiredAt49]

The Fed released a statement.

Judging from the market instant drop, I think it must have said something like "the spanking shall continue".

A media conference is coming up in a few minutes.


PS. I don't have access to TV at all, let alone cable. But when I hit update on my laptop browser, the thing hang up for a long time. Thought my Internet connection was broken, but it was not. I guess too many guys hit "Sell" button at the same time doing online trade, and it bogged down the Internet.

You can watch it on YouTube… yeah I should have bet that the S&P 500 would be down 5% [emoji23]

 

[audreyh1]

Oh well!

Still an hour to go.

 

[jim584672]

The pivot crowd will be disappointed, seems the Fed remains hawkish. Surprised it isn't down more.

 

[Gumby]

Once again, Lucy pulls the football away.

 

[audreyh1]

OK now a recovery and rally starting, but the futures are strongly negative. So who knows.

 

[NW-Bound]

More of my call options look like they are biting the dust in 2 days, or Friday 12/23.

What I have to decide is whether to buy them back for cheap, in order to free up my shares to get ready to sell covered calls again when the market rally again (for whatever reason or no reason), or waiting for them to expire worthless.

I do not feel like selling puts yet. I shall reserve that for when I hear more teeth gnashing and wailing. I don't feel like driving up my stock AA from its current 60%.

 

[NW-Bound]

You can watch it on YouTube… yeah I should have bet that the S&P 500 would be down 5% [emoji23]

I just watched it live-stream on CNBC.com.

First time I watch any Fed chairman live. I have to say I like Powell a lot: his talk as well as his demeanor.

 

[audreyh1]

OK now a recovery and rally starting, but the futures are strongly negative. So who knows.

And back down again!

 

[MichaelB]

I predict that after the announcement the S&P will fall by around 0.65% - and close around 3995. Roughly.

 

[REWahoo]

I predict that after the announcement the S&P will fall by around 0.65% - and close around 3995. Roughly.

Is your real name Claire Voyant?

 

[NW-Bound]

Is your real name Claire Voyant?

The full name is "Claire Rich Voyant".

 

[NW-Bound]

Did Claire Rich Voyant predict that the market would drop some more after close?

The S&P dropped as low as 3965, or -1.36% from yesterday.

Tomorrow will be interesting to watch. Oh wait, every day is an interesting day on Wall St.

 

[audreyh1]

Wow! So the market woke up this morning and decided a recession was imminent!

That meanie Powell has got it in for us!

These overnight mood swings are pretty amazing.