Another prediction for future

Interesting, but will stick with my set AA. If he is wrong, will he have a follow up article indicating as such?
Do any of these managers admit their prediction errors?
 
^ >>>> LOL I would bet you don't here one word if wrong. The thing is in every prediction I have read the time frame for their prediction is long like a decade long. Well, ya there will be a bear market in 10 years or bull market and most likely be right.
 
Losers will be passive investors, who will see returns fall away as the major indexes don't gain any ground, while winners will be active managers who pick stocks for a living.
Yep. Been hearing this for the last 5 years or so. "You need our help."

Basically, nothing more than clickbait and adware.
 
I do much better with predictions for the past.
 
I do not mind gloomy forecasts that much. It helps tamper my own expectations.
 
A stopped clock is right twice a day.
 
Whether it's the market or general social issues I just wish there was someone out there tracking these predictions. "In 2016 Mr X predicted Y..."

Worse yet, now you have "He predicted the recent downturn, now he's predicting X"
 
Whether it's the market or general social issues I just wish there was someone out there tracking these predictions. "In 2016 Mr X predicted Y..."

Worse yet, now you have "He predicted the recent downturn, now he's predicting X"

+1
I have alluded to this concept in a prior post. It would be great to get these stats. Alas, spending the time to compile them is not a good source of retirement time.:(
 
Excuse me if I'm skeptical when the chief strategist for a full-service brokerage and investment banking firm claims:

Losers will be passive investors, who will see returns fall away as the major indexes don't gain any ground, while winners will be active managers who pick stocks for a living.

Seems a little self serving to me. I'll take my chances with the index... I'm so far ahead compared to active managers past peformance that even if he is right I'm still ahead.. just a little less ahead. Besides, I'm to lazy to do the research necessary to find these genius managers that will outperform the indices... after all, I'm retired. He looks like he's retirement age and he's still working.
 
^ >>>> I like your way of thinking. It will be what it will be and to me my only option is hunker down and don't panic and don't do anything.
 
Wow! Where to start?

1. What is this persons' past record? Did he call the 2008 disaster in time for us to get out safely? What about the year 2000? 2009 did he successfully predict this nine year Bull Market and repeatedly encourage everybody to stay in over its run?

2. He seems preoccupied with short term results. Just my opinion.

3. Then there is this gem - "called this year's correction pretty much to the day". Does anybody think this was anything more than just dumb luck? A statistical one in a thousand chance came through. The fact that the reporter mentioned this 'fact' makes me wonder if the writer really understands financial markets and math above the 6th grade level.

Suppose we line up 256 ER Forum members and give them each a fair coin. The goal is to flip heads 8 times in a row. At the end of the flipping, almost all will have failed, some very badly (one probably flipped tails 8 times in a row, what an ignorant fool!).

But, one will most likely have met the goal. What genius! What skill! What a magnificent effort! What nonsense! And if we do it again, we will likely discover a different flipping genius and some new big losers.

Me? I'll stay with index funds and a bit of Pssssst...Wellesly.
 
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For all intents and purposes that's what Bogel et al are also saying. ie Warning! Slim Pickin's Ahead."

This guy is just putting his "active managers" spin on it because that's what he does for a living. The buy & holders put their spin on it by making the slim pickin's look adequate and exhorting you to be satisfied because "what's wrong with adequate?"
 
"Losers will be passive investors, who will see returns fall away as the major indexes don't gain any ground, while winners will be active managers who pick stocks for a living."

Gosh, I want to be a "winner". I appreciate that he not only identifies the problem but he provides a solution! :nonono:
 
The 'winners' will be a small group of people who select the active managers that beat the market and who are impossible to pick in advance (studies say maybe 10%) , the losers will be the much larger group of people who select the active managers who trail the market (by at least their fees, trading expenses and taxes). The real winners will be the Wall Street money skimming (oh sorry, 'management') industry. I'm happy with market returns so will choose my asset allocation, stick with index funds and ignore the 'noise'. But that's just me. Upton Sinclair was a wise man.
 
There are other alternatives to equity investing that will give generous returns and probably a safer bet. I got scared out of the market on 9/11 and haven’t pulled my head out of the sand since, my portfolio has done pretty well without it.
 
It is kind of an intellectual mystery to me that guys like this don't understand the arithmetic of active investing as William Sharpe explained it to us over 25 years ago. Any pool of active investors will inevitably produce results, before fees, that are the average of the stocks they are investing in. After fees, its a loss.

Per Upton Sinclair, though: "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!"

The key to these claims of "beating" is that the managers are investing in things outside the benchmark average that they are comparing themselves to. In fact, the last issue of Schwab's investor magazine quoted a Schwab panjandrum who said that they try to identify outperformers by finding managers who have "the courage" to buy outside their benchmark category.

The active managers are starting to figure out how to game the system this way, so these arithmetically-impossible claims will only proliferate. Worse, the hucksters will be very effective in confusing the investing public with these outperformance "facts."
 
I'm sure most have seen this already but these predictions articles always entice me to read them. Again just one persons opinion and who really knows what will happen.



https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...decade-ahead/ar-AAvwahh?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=edgsp



Let’s look at his track record from 2012

https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...ull-and-bear-offer-different-outlook/4205637/

And again from 2015

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/rob...nister-stocks-investing/2015/09/30/id/694055/

He is consistent and I suspect will be right eventually.
 
For the loser now will be later to win. For the times they are a-changin' .
 
... He is consistent and I suspect will be right eventually.
Yup. At which point the clueless press will anoint him "genius monkey" and he will remain so elevated until his next two predictions are busts and a new genius monkey replaces him.
 
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