Anyone buying into the Rivian IPO?

[NW-Bound]

No, these are not difficult and can be done mentally.

What's tough is the following, when I needed some numbers to share on another thread about electricity usage.

From a government site: "Los Angeles County electricity usage in 2020: 65649.878013 million kWh".

Question: How many Palo Verde nuclear plants to supply that power for LA County? How many Hornsdale battery storage facilities to store one day of usage?

 

[RVplusDog]

I tried to buy at near-IPO prices under $85, but couldn’t get in.

So bought $1 of it at Rhood, which is up over 10% in 4 days. I suspect RIVN won’t get back to its IPO pricing until after lock-up, if ever. It’ll be a fun one to watch.

 

[NW-Bound]

Here's another exercise I would give to HS students in a Physics class.

A Web site shows that the total number of miles driven by passenger cars in the US in 2018 is 1,404,507 million miles.

1) When all cars are converted to EV, assuming that each mile uses 0.25 kWh, compute how many Palo Verde nuclear plants it takes to power them.

2) Look up the current total solar power produced in the US, and compute the increase factor that would have to be built to supply the EVs.

These are all simple arithmetic exercises, and would require a Web browser and nothing more. By the way, Web browsers like Google Chrome and MS Bing have a calculator built-in. You can simply enter an expression such as "100 billion / 365" into the search bar, and get an answer.


PS. When I entered "100 quadrillion / 365", Chrome gave me an answer. Bing did not, but popped up two definitions of quadrillion. It turned out that the British definition of a quadrillion is vastly different than the American one which I use. Hah! Learn something every day.

 

[Chuckanut]

Speaking of people who are not accustomed with big numbers, I do not have a Twitter account but the other day when looking at Musk's polling about selling Tesla shares, I saw a reply by a Twitter poster who said "Yes, Musk should sell 22 billion dollars worth of stock. If divided by the world population, everyone gets 3 million".

Hah! Did this guy think the world had only 7 thousand people, instead of 7 billion people? Or he did not know what a billion is?

Musk would need 22 quadrillion in order to give everyone 3 million, instead of just 3 bucks.

What is more interesting is that the Twitter poster got several hundred up votes. I scratched my head, wondering if this was a joke.

A joke? No. Jokers? Yes.

Has Rivian sold many cars to actual consumers? I live in an area full of well paid techy people. I remember seeing the rare Tesla roadster here and there. Then the Model S started to pop up. Rivians? No a one in sight.

 

[ERD50]

Speaking of people who are not accustomed with big numbers, I do not have a Twitter account but the other day when looking at Musk's polling about selling Tesla shares, I saw a reply by a Twitter poster who said "Yes, Musk should sell 22 billion dollars worth of stock. If divided by the world population, everyone gets 3 million".

Hah! Did this guy think the world had only 7 thousand people, instead of 7 billion people? Or he did not know what a billion is?

Musk would need 22 quadrillion in order to give everyone 3 million, instead of just 3 bucks.

What is more interesting is that the Twitter poster got several hundred up votes. I scratched my head, wondering if this was a joke.

It might have been a joke.

New York Times editorial board member Mara Gay and MSNBC's Brian Wilson infamously said that Micheal Bloomberg could have taken the $500 million he spent on his failed campaign and given every person in the US $1 million dollars. And they double down

Gay agreed with Williams. "It's an incredible way of putting it," she said. "It's true."

When confronted, they tried to laugh it off as being "bad at math". But this wasn't an off-the-cuff statement, this was a prepared segment. Is their whole staff "bad at math"? IMO, what is underlying is they actually believe the "rich" really have enough money to spread millions to the rest of us, and just from one part of their expenditure. It's not math, it's common sense there isn't that kind of money to spread around from one person to millions. They don't question it because they want to believe it.

https://www.newsweek.com/brian-williams-mara-gay-nyt-bloomberg-math-wrong-1490953

So that 'flub' got a lot of attention in some circles, and might be the reference if that was a joke.

-ERD50

 

[Lsbcal]

Thinking back about that period, what was scary was that I still got hurt even though I bought no dotcoms, only tech companies with real products and sales. Their P/Es were high, but people justified it by saying that their sales were growing. I felt more assured holding these stocks, compared to the dotcoms.

Came the tech crash. Everything went down. It was of no consolation to me that the dotcoms got totally wiped out, when my own stocks went to 1/2 or 1/3 of their high. When sales were no longer growing due to the economy tanking, P/E got recalibrated to a lot lower number. Yes, so many companies were overvalued. The only ones that were not overvalued then were "old-economy" stocks, the potato chip makers instead of the silicon chip makers.

I am telling ya, I have been reducing my stock AA. It was as high as 80%, but is now approaching 60%. I may reduce it further by setting lower strike prices on my covered calls, so that they get assigned.

I too get nervous when making a lot of gains. But then I have to look at the data to make rational decisions. I just can't get excited about bonds or cash as an alternative. When I look at how much we have in FI it's still plenty to see us through tougher markets.

Some comparisons between the tech crash and now:

July 2000
Shiller CAPE = 42.8
Shiller excess CAPE yield = -0.9%
Treasury spread = -25 bp inverted (10yr - 3mo)

Now
Shiller CAPE = 38.3
Shiller excess CAPE yield = 3.2% (in favor of stocks)
Treasury spread = 150 bp (positive slope)

I think that there are frothy areas of the market but they seem to be mostly in the really speculative stuff: crypto, mime stocks, Rivian type stocks. I hope that the bigger market players do not have to sell the stuff I buy because they have to raise cash. My guess is the speculation in those areas are by very small investors and very new (to stocks) speculators.

If you look at ARKK (innovation stocks, Cathy Woods), it has had a correction from its February high but the general market is still healthy. That correction was not seen in the SP500 or the large cap growth index (VUG).

 

[newchapter]

I had some money to play with and bought 10 shares of RIVN on 11/11 knowing it was a big risk. At close today I am up 24%, I hope the luck continues a little longer...

 

[NW-Bound]

It might have been a joke.

New York Times editorial board member Mara Gay and MSNBC's Brian Wilson infamously said that Micheal Bloomberg could have taken the $500 million he spent on his failed campaign and given every person in the US $1 million dollars. And they double down

When confronted, they tried to laugh it off as being "bad at math". But this wasn't an off-the-cuff statement, this was a prepared segment. Is their whole staff "bad at math"? IMO, what is underlying is they actually believe the "rich" really have enough money to spread millions to the rest of us, and just from one part of their expenditure. It's not math, it's common sense there isn't that kind of money to spread around from one person to millions. They don't question it because they want to believe it.

https://www.newsweek.com/brian-williams-mara-gay-nyt-bloomberg-math-wrong-1490953

So that 'flub' got a lot of attention in some circles, and might be the reference if that was a joke.

-ERD50

I did not know about this incidence. You don't need no stinkin' calculator to realize it was all wrong.

About silly errors, here's another incidence I saw many years ago, this one involved no arithmetic.

An anchorwoman was doing a live evening news, when the news broke about a microburst happening at a major US airport, and almost caused a major aircraft accident. The regular program was interrupted. The woman said "Witnesses said the wind was so powerful, it blew the top of the trees perpendicular to the ground".

The word she wanted was parallel. But she repeated the funny statement twice, in order to emphasize how strong the wind was.

 

[Rambler]

Ford owns about 12% of Rivian. I own some Ford stock, and I’ve been watching F rise the past few months. I’m holding for now. Personally, I’m not interested in a Rivian, nor a Ford Lightening. I have a truck with which I tow a trailer, often interstate. I haven’t yet seen a charging location where I could stop and charge without detaching the trailer, so I have no use for them.

 

[Oakster]

Most drivers don’t do long distance driving every day, so that’s not the base case that EV hesitants like to throw out there. Over 90% of EV owners charge at home, where it’s cheap and convenient, so access to chargers elsewhere isn’t as big a barrier for most people as you might think. Assuming charger access has to be anything like gas station access is an invalid assumption. It’ll take far fewer charge stations than present gas stations to make EVs viable. There will be millions of two car homes with an EV and an ICE over the next decade, another viable solution.

Only those who drive long distances often and/or people without access to any home charger have that reason to rule out an EV. There will be many

That is only touching the surface on the concerns. If every house in a neighborhood had an EV, the electrical system serving the neighborhood would be inadequate. The entire electrical system in the County will likely need to be redone. Charging at home is an urban luxury. I live in Wyoming. We have many stretches of highway without fuel availability for 70 miles or more. When you are traveling down the interstate and need a charge, there will need to be more charging stations that fuel stations most likely, considering the time it takes to charge. Wyoming only has 600,000 people, so its not a big blip no the radar, but most people drive a lot of miles each year. They require charging, and nobody wants to wait an hour. Could you imagine being 3rd in line..... Electrical infrastructure needs to be built, with a lot of chargers, large power supply and ample parking / with something to do during the wait time. They also have to figure out spacing for very cold weather, when efficiency may not be optimal.

 

[Oakster]

I had some money to play with and bought 10 shares of RIVN on 11/11 knowing it was a big risk. At close today I am up 24%, I hope the luck continues a little longer...

It did continue. I bought a little bit yesterday and I am up almost 20% in half of yesterday, and today. I probably should have taken my 20% and went back to something with a better ratio and stronger history that is making a profit each quarter...

 

[FIREarly]

Rivian might be a great stock, it might not.

If you're going to buy an EV stock you have multiple options and, IMO, the top pick, TSLA. It just dipped, possibly due to Elon Musk selling multiple shares.

EVgo recently went public. It might be a buy and hold since it's paired up with GM (?) to build their EV charging network.

Ford paired up with Purdue to work on an EV charger that takes 5 minutes. Not available yet but worth keeping an eye on it.

To sum up this post: TSLA!!

 

[Lsbcal]

Rivian might be a great stock, it might not.

If you're going to buy an EV stock you have multiple options and, IMO, the top pick, TSLA. It just dipped, possibly due to Elon Musk selling multiple shares.

EVgo recently went public. It might be a buy and hold since it's paired up with GM (?) to build their EV charging network.

Ford paired up with Purdue to work on an EV charger that takes 5 minutes. Not available yet but worth keeping an eye on it.

To sum up this post: TSLA!!

I own a bunch of TSLA through the SP500 and VUG (VG large cap growth). It is now 2.3% of the SP500 and 3.8% of VUG. TSLA is the #5 largest stock in both indexes.

 

[FIREarly]

Originally Posted by*FIREarly*

Rivian might be a great stock, it might not.

If you're going to buy an EV stock you have multiple options and, IMO, the top pick, TSLA. It just dipped, possibly due to Elon Musk selling multiple shares.

EVgo recently went public. It might be a buy and hold since it's paired up with GM (?) to build their EV charging network.

Ford paired up with Purdue to work on an EV charger that takes 5 minutes. Not available yet but worth keeping an eye on it.

To sum up this post: TSLA!!

I own a bunch of TSLA through the SP500 and VUG (VG large cap growth). It is now 2.3% of the SP500 and 3.8% of VUG.

+1 enjoy the EV stock "ride"

 

[kingkarmann]

Specific auto makers don’t interest me.
Alternative energy stocks that capitalize the future of how our transportation will be powered make much more sense to me.

 

[NW-Bound]

Today, Lucid (LCID) jumped 23.7%. Market cap: $90B. Last quarter revenue: $174k.

Buy, buy, buy...

EV is what the Internet was in the late 90s. Buy, buy, buy...

Everything and anything that has to do with EV will go up. You cannot lose.

 

[aja8888]

Today, Lucid (LCID) jumped 23.7%. Market cap: $90B. Last quarter revenue: $174k.

Buy, buy, buy...

EV is what the Internet was in the late 90s. Buy, buy, buy...

Everything and anything that has to do with EV will go up. You cannot lose.

In the morning, I'm going ALL IN!

 

[24601NoMore]

This is getting ludicrous.

$142 BILLION market cap as of today? For a company that at BEST will ship 40,000 whole vehicles next year? And MAYBE 150K the year after that?

I've never shorted a stock before and would be hesitant to go against the FOMO crowd on this, but told the wife today that I personally think RIVN is gonna go "SPLAT!" in a HUGE way - because not only do they have no sales and a whole...ONE..plant, the big boys (Ford, GM, Honda) ALL are getting into EVs in a big way - and are going to crush tiny little RIVN like a worm. (Sorry..all quotes Braveheart..) Ford, for example, sold more EVs in the first half of 2021 than RIVN will sell all of next year. And that's just Ford. GM, Honda, Toyota, etc are ALL doing EVs and have massively more infrastructure (plants, materials, suppliers, dealers, etc) to take huge EV market share. So how on earth is RIVN worth $142B market cap today? It's not.

The only question is when they go splat. But the odds are very, very high IMHO that they will. In the meantime, we appear to have "Tulip Mania 2.0" going on with RIVN stock. And if that ain't a sure sign of a market top, not sure what is..

 

[finnski1]

Today, Lucid (LCID) jumped 23.7%. Market cap: $90B. Last quarter revenue: $174k.

Buy, buy, buy...

EV is what the Internet was in the late 90s. Buy, buy, buy...

Everything and anything that has to do with EV will go up. You cannot lose.

Crazy. Toyota has a market cap of about $250B. I think they have sold more than $174k worth of vehicles last quarter.

 

[NW-Bound]

In the morning, I'm going ALL IN!

Define "ALL IN".

Are you going to cash out your house to buy EV stocks? If not, you are not ALL IN.

 

[NW-Bound]

Crazy. Toyota has a market cap of about $250B. I think they have sold more than $174k worth of vehicles last quarter.

Well, $174k is what, about 6 middling Camrys?

But we've got to remember that Toyota and other car makers are going down the tube. They don't know anything about EV, do they?

 

[FIREarly]

Specific auto makers don’t interest me.
Alternative energy stocks that capitalize the future of how our transportation will be powered make much more sense to me.

If read correctly, EVs are the future and we're watching Elon Musk, who, I believe, will be forever remembered as the man who changed the way society evolved to EVs... MAYBE space travel. I believe in that and SpaceX mission but who knows how long it'll take.

MAYBE a SpaceX IPO!

How the EVs are built and function (chargers, batteries, etc...) will be very important for some other stocks. Similar to the people during the Gold Rush that sold shovels and other related products to the many people who tried to find gold but didn't. They made the money.

 

[kingkarmann]

if read correctly, evs are the future and we're watching elon musk, who, i believe, will be forever remembered as the man who changed the way society evolved to evs... Maybe space travel. I believe in that and spacex mission but who knows how long it'll take.

Maybe a spacex ipo!

How the evs are built and function (chargers, batteries, etc...) will be very important for some other stocks. Similar to the people during the gold rush that sold shovels and other related products to the many people who tried to find gold but didn't. They made the money.

exactly!

 

[aja8888]

If read correctly, EVs are the future and we're watching Elon Musk, who, I believe, will be forever remembered as the man who changed the way society evolved to EVs... MAYBE space travel. I believe in that and SpaceX mission but who knows how long it'll take.

MAYBE a SpaceX IPO!

How the EVs are built and function (chargers, batteries, etc...) will be very important for some other stocks. Similar to the people during the Gold Rush that sold shovels and other related products to the many people who tried to find gold but didn't. They made the money.

As much as i'm all for this, SpaceX is not a money making business. So what would the IPO be based on?

 

[NW-Bound]

As much as i'm all for this, SpaceX is not a money making business. So what would the IPO be based on?

But, but, but as we talked about just now, making money is never a prerequisite to going IPO and selling shares. All you need is a good narrative, and SpaceX already has plenty of stories to tell.

I have not bought any of these EV stocks, and in fact never bought any IPO ever, in any sector. It's amazing how I survive without owning any of them.