Bitcoin Low

A recent survey looked for companies actually implementing blockchain and their experience with it.


We documented 43 blockchain use-cases through internet searches, most of which were described with glowing claims like “operational costs… reduced up to 90%,” or with the assurance of “accurate and secure data capture and storage.” We found a proliferation of press releases, white papers, and persuasively written articles. However, we found no documentation or evidence of the results blockchain was purported to have achieved in these claims. We also did not find lessons learned or practical insights, as are available for other technologies in development.


Oops.


Source: Blockchain for International Development: Using a Learning Agenda to Address Knowledge Gaps | MERL Tech
 
Well, let’s see: Current price of BTC is $7,862. Down somewhat as Iranian conflict subsides for now. Performing very well as a safe harbor asset during crises, akin to gold, while otherwise uncorrelated to public equities.

In other news: Options on futures on bitcoin started trading on the CME this week. And the CEO of bitcoin-backed Bakkt was appointed Senator for Georgia this week. Bitcoin was top performing asset in financial markets again in 2019 and increased more than nine million percent (9,000,000%) in value over the decade ended 11/31/19. If only Amazon had done so well.

All told, bitcoin definitely not.dead.yet. Actually doing very well, thank you....
 
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Impresive, but tulip mania lasted a lot longer than a decade. I prefer investments that have cash flows.
 
My son is playing around with BTC-USD, and trying to time the market by switching from bitcoin to cash to bitcoin through out the day. He only has about $3000 invested, and it is giving him a feel for how the market/news cycle operate (good learning tool).

This has brought him to me with new discussions about investments, and strategy.
 
Impresive, but tulip mania lasted a lot longer than a decade. I prefer investments that have cash flows.


Don’t we all. I’ve got those, too. But as a hedge against this and that, I also hold the only asset class I know that is non-correlated and a proven safe harbor and can’t be depreciated or confiscated by the government.

Despite all the trash talk, it's also become something like the 13th most widely held currency in the world. It's the 5th most widely held asset by US Millennials.

I study money. I teach money at a major university. Tulips or (what did that other guy say?) “Beanie Babies” never became money. I don't use BTC as money, because I hodl it. But others do.

My bottom line — I don’t care whether or not you buy BTC. I don’t try to persuade civilians to do anything whatsoever about digital assets. I am just reporting facts that are mighty inconvenient for no-coiners who spouted the "fraud, scam, fad" narrative.

Fact: A one percent BTC allocation in a 99% Treasury portfolio beat an all-S&P 500 portfolio over the first and last decade. Hmm. Maybe that's why so many institutional investors are adding it to their portfolios. They see BTC as cheap portfolio insurance against systemic collapse, and it has the other positive features noted above.

Well, that's enough from me here for a year or so. Back to work now. Many happy returns.
 
don’t we all. I’ve got those, too. But as a hedge against this and that, i also hold the only asset class i know that is non-correlated and a proven safe harbor and can’t be depreciated or confiscated by the government.

Despite all the trash talk, it's also become something like the 13th most widely held currency in the world. It's the 5th most widely held asset by us millennials.

I study money. I teach money at a major university. Tulips or (what did that other guy say?) “beanie babies” never became money. I don't use btc as money, because i hodl it. But others do.

My bottom line — i don’t care whether or not you buy btc. I don’t try to persuade civilians to do anything whatsoever about digital assets. I am just reporting facts that are mighty inconvenient for no-coiners who spouted the "fraud, scam, fad" narrative.

Fact: A one percent btc allocation in a 99% treasury portfolio beat an all-s&p 500 portfolio over the first and last decade. Hmm. Maybe that's why so many institutional investors are adding it to their portfolios. They see btc as cheap portfolio insurance against systemic collapse, and it has the other positive features noted above.

Well, that's enough from me here for a year or so. Back to work now. Many happy returns.

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Fact: A one percent BTC allocation in a 99% Treasury portfolio beat an all-S&P 500 portfolio over the first and last decade. Hmm. Maybe that's why so many institutional investors are adding it to their portfolios. They see BTC as cheap portfolio insurance against systemic collapse, and it has the other positive features noted above.


I'm confused as to what years make up "the first and last decade". Can you put some dates on them as of today?
 
Fact: A one percent BTC allocation in a 99% Treasury portfolio beat an all-S&P 500 portfolio over the first and last decade. Hmm.
Fact: Bitcoin only came into being in Jan 2009.
Fact: First Bitcoin real world transaction happened in 2010.
Fact: Bitcoin trading didn't take off until 2013.

So can you explain what you mean by it beating the S&P 500 portfolio "over the first and last decade"? It's barely been around a decade itself, and has actively traded for less than that. So can you explain what you mean? Thanks
 
Nothing wrong with a small percentage in BItcoin or other speculative assets. No one knows the future.
 
Our forum is characterized by civility, let’s please remember to keep a friendly tone in our posts. What brings us together is not wealth but retirement.
 
Fact: Bitcoin only came into being in Jan 2009.
Fact: First Bitcoin real world transaction happened in 2010.
Fact: Bitcoin trading didn't take off until 2013.

So can you explain what you mean by it beating the S&P 500 portfolio "over the first and last decade"? It's barely been around a decade itself, and has actively traded for less than that. So can you explain what you mean? Thanks

Yep, with BitCoin starting date is even more critical than backtesting 60/40 portfolios!
 
Fact: Bitcoin only came into being in Jan 2009.

Fact: First Bitcoin real world transaction happened in 2010.

Fact: Bitcoin trading didn't take off until 2013.



So can you explain what you mean by it beating the S&P 500 portfolio "over the first and last decade"? It's barely been around a decade itself, and has actively traded for less than that. So can you explain what you mean? Thanks



I appreciate the respectful tone of your question.

The first decade and last decade are the same because bitcoin was first mined in 1/09 as you noted. My data relate to the decade ended 12/31/19. I don't care when bitcoin was first "actively traded." My daughter, then 29 years old, bought $100K of it in 2011 and retired six years later. The best returns for MSFT were from its pre-IPO private placements. That's common for tech breakthroughs -- like this one.

Reiterating, I'm done (here). Your buddy from Ohio invited me to leave. This forum, far from welcoming thoughtful people, has developed a reputation for driving them away.

I have a digital assets lecture at my favorite university to prepare for. Really excited about that. Minds are big and open there.

As for everyone else in this forum who'd like to attack me again, I will leave you with this famous email message from Satoshi Nakamoto: "If you don't believe it or don't get it, I don't have the time to try to convince you, sorry."

All best wishes in your varied retirements.
 
I want to apologize for my post. I deleted it. It is not in keeping with the intent of ER.org.
 
..... My bottom line — I don’t care whether or not you buy BTC. I don’t try to persuade civilians to do anything whatsoever about digital assets. I am just reporting facts that are mighty inconvenient for no-coiners who spouted the "fraud, scam, fad" narrative. ....

Well that is good. And I don't care if you invest in BTC either. And I'm glat that it worked out for you and your daughter.

I just posted that I was skeptical as to the value proposition and that it wasn't for me... no particular intrinsic value or cash flows... while I'm skeptical of its long-term viability who knows, I might be wrong.

If it makes you feel better I don't invest in fx either for the same reasons.

Let's reconnect in 20 years and see how it all worked out.

.... Well, that's enough from me here for a year or so. ...

Works for me.

Just curious though... what is the meaning of your screen name 1-31-18?
 
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If you had bought $100k of Tesla in 2011 you could also have retired 6 years later....and at least they make something.

Tesla was about $25 in 2011 and $355 in 2017 so this assumes that your daughter could retire on $1.4 million
 
We never had enough bitcoins to be rich but we are 40k ahead and my kids 100k. Plus we still own some. Lots of negativity around this.
 
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