Bitcoin Low

[JoeWras]

Instead of a no-coiner, I think I should be called a coin-denier!

Perfect!

The reason I'm not in this game, and hence why I'm a coin-denier, is social manipulation. I'll admit that 15 years ago I bought a stock I thought I knew a lot about. The forums at the time were all gung-ho about this stock. Lots of apparently smart people having discussions similar to this pumping up the stock.

Then it cratered.

All the discussion boards changed and prominent posters vanished. Others said "they left because they lost their shirts." Nah, they won because they were shorting. I'm pretty convinced of it. I was manipulated.

Haven't bought a stock since.

 

[1-31-18]

Perfect!

The reason I'm not in this game, and hence why I'm a coin-denier, is social manipulation. I'll admit that 15 years ago I bought a stock I thought I knew a lot about. The forums at the time were all gung-ho about this stock. Lots of apparently smart people having discussions similar to this pumping up the stock.

Then it cratered.

All the discussion boards changed and prominent posters vanished. Others said "they left because they lost their shirts." Nah, they won because they were shorting. I'm pretty convinced of it. I was manipulated.

Haven't bought a stock since.

Yup, I get it, and I agree with the crypto asset judgment that you’ve made for yourself. The retail public should not be offered (and should not buy) these assets. There is a great deal of hype around token offerings in particular, not one of which has been approved by the SEC. Only bitcoin and ether have been cleared by the SEC, and even there not for mutual funds offered to retail investors.

To be clear, all my work and thought process in this field is with institutions and family offices. (And yes, I “do seminars,” have done them for 30 years — but not for the public and not for pay.)

It’s unfortunate in hindsight that your early bad experience with a stock soured you on all stocks. But you are in good company in sitting out the stock market, and I would not enter it now with CAPE circa 30 if I were in or near retirement. All best wishes.

 

[Bestwifeever]

I really should have a blog:

Pro boxer Floyd Mayweather and music producer DJ Khaled pumped up initial coin offerings without telling investors they were getting paid a promotional fee, according to a settlement announced Thursday.
The Securities and Exchange Commission said they are the first cases to charge touting violations regarding ICOs, a relatively new phenomenon that has attracted billions of investor dollars to new cryptocurrencies, often with little to back them up.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/11/29...omoting-icos-without-disclosing-payments.html

 

[FUEGO]

Guys guys wait! It's up 10%!!!! You no-coiners didn't go to ivy league obviously.

Edit: it's actually down 10% now. But it's still a good store of value as long as it keeps going up 4eva!!1

 

[indiajust]

A more long winded attempt at crypto value:


https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/attempt-valuation-bitcoin-tom-luther/

 

[indiajust]

Once bitten twice shy


hmmm... my first job and first relationships ended badly. I think I had some awful crashes on the bike too. rather than learn from my mistakes and move forward, perhaps i should shun work and companionship and locomotion? hair shirt anyone?

 

[indiajust]

Tulip mania was not about trading the flowers. The rational value based part of the market was well understood. They traded the "rights" to the flowers at the end. Ultimately they were trading in things that did not yet exist. So the analogy to crypto is not entirely inappropriate.

 

[ERD50]

....
It’s unfortunate in hindsight that your early bad experience with a stock soured you on all stocks. But you are in good company in sitting out the stock market, and I would not enter it now with CAPE circa 30 if I were in or near retirement. All best wishes.

I'm pretty sure he meant that he was turned off to speculative, individual stocks. I'd bet he has a good % in stocks, but diversified through a broad index fund, like many/most of us.

I'll admit to being pretty ignorant about bitcoin and blockchain technology. And for that reason I won't be investing directly in any of it. But I really just don't understand how bitcoin could be seen as any sort of safety net in case of an Armageddon scenario. I mean, if people give up their faith in the USD, with its history, who is going to feel confident in some computer-based system of wealth? People like me would need to have faith in it, and I'm sure the vast majority are like me, and just don't have faith in it (even if we should - perception is reality in a case like this).

-ERD50

 

[FUEGO]

Once bitten twice shy


hmmm... my first job and first relationships ended badly. I think I had some awful crashes on the bike too. rather than learn from my mistakes and move forward, perhaps i should shun work and companionship and locomotion? hair shirt anyone?

This is hardly our first mania.

 

[indiajust]

crypto NH

Best wishes to you in New Hampshire. Great crypto community among the freedom-loving libertarians choosing to live there.

Indeed. Manchester and Keene crypto and libertarian communities provide an interesting counterpoint to onlline "discussion". Young folks engaging in price discovery and real life application struggles are a welcome economic anchor in my aging and increasingly didactic life.


And it improves my listening skills too! In another few years millenials will have even more valid reasons not to trust anyone over 30, just as the boomers learned.



As my limited talents with programming and mathematics fade, grasp on the underlying tech will as well. I am coming to appreciate the dynamism and optimism of youth that is on full display in the crypto space.


Worldwide society is rushing pell mell toward a digital society. Crypto is and will be an increasing part of that society. The journey will be interesting.

 

[JoeWras]

I'm pretty sure he meant that he was turned off to speculative, individual stocks. I'd bet he has a good % in stocks, but diversified through a broad index fund, like many/most of us.

Correct.

 

[Texas Proud]

I'm pretty sure he meant that he was turned off to speculative, individual stocks. I'd bet he has a good % in stocks, but diversified through a broad index fund, like many/most of us.

I'll admit to being pretty ignorant about bitcoin and blockchain technology. And for that reason I won't be investing directly in any of it. But I really just don't understand how bitcoin could be seen as any sort of safety net in case of an Armageddon scenario. I mean, if people give up their faith in the USD, with its history, who is going to feel confident in some computer-based system of wealth? People like me would need to have faith in it, and I'm sure the vast majority are like me, and just don't have faith in it (even if we should - perception is reality in a case like this).

-ERD50

The other problem with these people who think that armageddon occurred then there probably is not going to be a lot of electricity being produced all over the world... that means the internet will probably crash and there will be no coins to trade..

 

[aja8888]

The other problem with these people who think that armageddon occurred then there probably is not going to be a lot of electricity being produced all over the world... that means the internet will probably crash and there will be no coins to trade..

And no electric cars to drive (very far, anyway)...

 

[1-31-18]

Indeed. Manchester and Keene crypto and libertarian communities provide an interesting counterpoint to onlline "discussion". Young folks engaging in price discovery and real life application struggles are a welcome economic anchor in my aging and increasingly didactic life.


And it improves my listening skills too! In another few years millenials will have even more valid reasons not to trust anyone over 30, just as the boomers learned.



As my limited talents with programming and mathematics fade, grasp on the underlying tech will as well. I am coming to appreciate the dynamism and optimism of youth that is on full display in the crypto space.


Worldwide society is rushing pell mell toward a digital society. Crypto is and will be an increasing part of that society. The journey will be interesting.

Amen. The youthfulness of the crypto space is stunning. I am older by 25 years than my oldest computer engineering client. That was my point about my daughter: a girl in her mid-30s able to retire after making one good trade.

My daughter and her kind are keeping me young and relevant. Ignorant old farts, whose “analysis” is limited to googling popular newspaper stories, are utterly inconsequential. Stay plugged in to bright young talent, as you are.

Contra Aesop, the tortoise doesn’t always win. Moderation in everything is not the best policy (for the best). But I wish all the indexers well while observing that Bob Shiller’s index closed at 30.94 this week. Yowza, that’s high.

Boola boola, Eli Yale. (Thank you for your brilliant work, Bob.) And go ‘Cats !!

 

[bada bing]

But I wish all the indexers well while observing that Bob Shiller’s index closed at 30.94 this week. Yowza, that’s high.

Yes it is high. What is the P/E of bitcoin though ? I can't calculate it because I keep getting a divide by zero error ?

 

[JoeWras]

One of the brightest colleagues I w*rked with went to a blockchain start up company. I see a future in blockchain. His company was focused on much more than coins. I'm happy that bright people like him are working on the problem in general. There is something to the technology.

My niece's husband got in on bitcoin when it was at its high. He asked me if my retirement was based on *coin investments. Answer: Ah, no it is not. They really cannot afford him to be speculating. So, I do worry about them.

 

[corn18]

I wonder how much wealth has disappeared due to folks losing their personal key? And that wealth disappears forever. It cannot be recovered or passed on.

 

[1-31-18]

Yes it is high. What is the P/E of bitcoin though ? I can't calculate it because I keep getting a divide by zero error ?

True. Kinda like the P/E of gold. And the P/E of your personal residence. Also, while we’re at it, it’s identical to the P/E ratio of your collection of US dollars, neglecting the trivial return that a bankster will pay you for stashing it with him. And my bitcoin, unlike your or my dollars, can’t be devalued by a spendthrift government.

I hereby offer to buy all of your gold for one US dollar and a fee simple interest in your personal residence for two US dollars. As those are infinite multiples of their earnings, that’s a terrific offer for you according to your chosen metric. But somehow I suspect you will decline my offer.

P/E is THE metric for equities. Bitcoin and (most other) crypto assets aren’t equities.

 

[1-31-18]

I wonder how much wealth has disappeared due to folks losing their personal key? And that wealth disappears forever. It cannot be recovered or passed on.

Correct. This is one of the risks of holding crypto assets. One ETH investor offered to pay a municipality the cost of digging up a public dump to find the discarded personal computer whose hard drive held his key. The market value of the lost ETH was a nine-figure amount then. The municipality declined.

My young friend Pamela Morgan has written a book on crypto asset inheritance planning that spells out recommended security procedures. Accidental loss is a risk, as is violent crime: If you own highly-valued crypto assets (and no one “here” does, obviously), then don’t mention it to anyone you don’t trust unless you have solid personal security. A stranger could put a gun to your head and demand your key. It happens.

Safe custody is THE problem. A few very bright people are working on solutions. The ICE project named “Bakkt” is especially promising. Targeted for public launch next month.

 

[sengsational]

Isn't like half of the Bitcoin ever minted held by one entity or something like that? If that (or those) early large blocks try to sell, that will be a shock. But if the wallet is gone or the key lost, those coins are out of circulation forever. Interesting black swan to consider.



That being said, I think that as long as Bitcoin is needed, it will have value; the people who need it (primarily bad guys that encrypt your hard drive and charge a ransom, and DDoS for hire bad guys) will value it. I suspect they have ways to safely sell Bitcoin into thier local currency without getting caught, then buy beer, bread, and BMWs. They might liquidate completely every week, who knows? They value Bitcoin for what it does for them (allows anonymous payment), but they don't necessarily like the speculation aspect. The overwhelming majority of Bitcoin holders, I suspect, are speculators. As they try to out guess other speculators, the price will bounce around, of course. A shock could send the price tumbling or weak or lost confidence in traditional debt instruments could send the price higher. Meanwhile, the bad guy that gets the true value doesn't care if he's just using it to hide his tracks. He simply changes his price based on where Bitcoin is trading.


So there's the obvious value to bad guys to extract payment anonymously, but is there value to people who buy to avoid holding a currency that's getting eaten away by inflation? I grant that there may be instances where Bitcoin could serve this purpose, thus have another non-speculation value to someone. In case of a "debt crisis", I suspect a play in this realm could be used to carry a cash position. This function has traditionally been covered using precious metals, but I see no reason why Bitcoin wouldn't also work for this function.

 

[1-31-18]

My niece's husband got in on bitcoin when it was at its high. He asked me if my retirement was based on *coin investments. Answer: Ah, no it is not. They really cannot afford him to be speculating. So, I do worry about them.

Your reference to bitcoin “at its high” implies that it will not reach that market price again, which does not surprise me owing to your obvious skepticism. I felt that way myself until I spent a couple hundred hours studying this subject. BTC was over-valued last December by every metric used in the crypto industry, and it sold off. It is currently under-valued by the same metrics.

Where will it go from here? We shall see. I predict several more booms and busts. Reiterating, we have already had not one, but several, BTC booms and busts. That’s what all new technologies do.

For that reason, I do not like to see people who cannot afford to lose “the entirety of their investment” investing in crypto assets today. My daughter’s 100-bagger was the equivalent of making a 70-foot jump shot with no time left on the clock. Or so I thought at the time — she understood the potential before most and knew better than her old man. She also had a multiple of that bet invested in traditional asset classes.

 

[flintnational]

This is what I glean from the above posts on bitcoin.

Someone you don't know made $10M = buy bitcoin
Yale, MIT and Harvard are smart = buy bitcoin
The government may collapse = buy bitcoin
The smart money and family money are in = buy bitcoin
Stocks are highly valued = buy bitcoin
Old people are behind the times/young folks are smart = buy bitcoin
Stocks and bonds are so yesterday = buy bitcoin
The USD may collapse = buy bitcoin

Maybe its just me, but this sounds a lot like a sales pitch. Bitcoin only has speculative value to current owners if new speculators buy it from them at a higher price. The greater fool theory. So, it has to be defended and pumped. Notice how rarely anyone talks about its use as currency. The whole premise is that bitcoin will be owned by everyone and you need to get in today. And, did I mention it's a limited supply?

 

[REWahoo]

Someone you don't know made $10M = buy bitcoin
Yale, MIT and Harvard are smart = buy bitcoin
The government may collapse = buy bitcoin
The smart money and family money are in = buy bitcoin
Stocks are highly valued = buy bitcoin
Old people are behind the times/young folks are smart = buy bitcoin
Stocks and bonds are so yesterday = buy bitcoin
The USD may collapse = buy bitcoin

I see a number of parallels here to the dotcom mania of the late 90's. Pets.com anyone?

 

[Chuckanut]

This is what I glean from the above posts on bitcoin.

Someone you don't know made $10M = buy bitcoin
Yale, MIT and Harvard are smart = buy bitcoin
The government may collapse = buy bitcoin
The smart money and family money are in = buy bitcoin
Stocks are highly valued = buy bitcoin
Old people are behind the times/young folks are smart = buy bitcoin
Stocks and bonds are so yesterday = buy bitcoin
The USD may collapse = buy bitcoin

Maybe its just me, but this sounds a lot like a sales pitch.

+1

Some of the posts here really need to come with a free steak dinner complete with a glass of wine and a chocolaty dessert.

 

[FUEGO]

+1

Some of the posts here really need to come with a free steak dinner complete with a glass of wine and a chocolaty dessert.

Or at least a cigarette and a cuddle after they're done with us...