Buying the dip or….

corn18 said:
Why not? Linear is a lot harder to read.
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True, the market did nothing at all from 1871 to 1970 is what you would get glancing at that lol. That a is a long FIRE
 
audreyh1 said:
None of us are getting any younger!
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Exactly, two of my close friends had serious, paralyzing strokes in the last 12 months, and both were in excellent physical shape. I look at every day through a different set of eyes anymore.
 
What a ride today....I bought and sold some (not enough) this morning between 8:30 and 10 cst and made a nice quick profit... Then the market turned sour late in the afternoon so I bought back in during the last 20 minutes of trading. From my POV, the main difference(s) between playing Roulette at a casino and the Market "for me" these days are my market wins/losses just come at a slower rate than table games "and" I can pull "most" of my bet back in the market if things look bad. In a casino, once the ball is spun it's pretty much done in less than a minute, and it's all or nothing.
 
Netflix got creamed today. Last I checked it was down over 20% (100 points or so). Subscriber growth overseas didn't meet expectations.
 
Lsbcal said:
Right! I moved a lot of bond fund money into 3 month Treasuries so I have a huge amount of spending dry powder. Also the RMD's are set aside in cash equivalents.
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+1 Although there is enough in the stock market to easily see us through until it all becomes inherited there is also enough in cash for the same. If the market really drops sufficiently like it did about 12+ years ago then I might but a few more shares. For now I will keep watching my investments keep adding to my stash.


Cheers!
 
aja8888 said:
Exactly, two of my close friends had serious, paralyzing strokes in the last 12 months, and both were in excellent physical shape. I look at every day through a different set of eyes anymore.
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That is so sad about your friends. Were there any signs beforehand?
 
Looks like we might be officially in correction territory. I just came into about 70K dry powder. I'll skim 20k off the top to pay off car loan for DW. It's 0% but she likes the peace of mind. The rest I will dollar cost into the market. Maybe 1K per week when I see opportunites. Glad I don't need to draw on the nest egg yet. Hoping for at least one 20% drop before I need to start drawing on the stash (2-3 years from now). We might be over half way there as of today. We'll see.
 
FREE866 said:
That is so sad about your friends. Were there any signs beforehand?
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Well, from what I know, they both were having balance and speech problems the morning the stroke was suspected. Then their spouses called 911 and off they went to the hospital. Strokes are generally cause by a blood clot clogging an artery (cartoid) that leads to the brain. Then the brain is starved for blood and that's it. Both friends were quite healthy and still playing golf regularly.
 
ImThinkin2019 said:
Joe, thanks for posting this. We think similarly to you - some years ago we thought the market was getting overvalued, plus we had close to enough money, so we took some out of equities. Since then, watched the market go up and up even though there were many calls of overvaluation. So much for market timing!

We still kept some equities, just less. Were still working at that time.

Then, as interest rates started to go down, our income portfolio opportunities(private placement debt stuff) started to dry up. A lot of those high yield debts were called. So more went into cash and less opportunites appeared.

As those dried up, we bought some VCLT to shore up our income. Got some share price increase as interest rates fell to the basement, then sold it to protect those gains as interest rates started to increase. More cash.

Now with all that cash, we are starting to look at getting more into equities. Time in the market rather than timing the market. (This is 30 year money - not for us, but for our kids.) Half of me hopes for a market crash, which I've been waiting for for years, to reinvest, and the other half hopes that our equities will not lose too much.

It will be interesting to see what plays out!!
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old medic said:
I'm keep looking.... Have 2 different chunks of cash i would like to put to work...
ones our grandson's savings account.
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Couple years ago I had some cash. I was hoping for a 2-3% drop in S&P 500 for a better entry point. That was 46 points ago. Glad I didn't wait.

Your comments mention "30 year money", "grandson savings". I don't think waiting for a dip likely to pay off very often.
 
aja8888 said:
Well, from what I know, they both were having balance and speech problems the morning the stroke was suspected. Then their spouses called 911 and off they went to the hospital. Strokes are generally cause by a blood clot clogging an artery (cartoid) that leads to the brain. Then the brain is starved for blood and that's it. Both friends were quite healthy and still playing golf regularly.
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Damn. That’s tough. Health is everything. Enjoy the day, as you said that’s the “lens” we should all have.
 
aja8888 said:
Well, from what I know, they both were having balance and speech problems the morning the stroke was suspected. Then their spouses called 911 and off they went to the hospital. Strokes are generally cause by a blood clot clogging an artery (cartoid) that leads to the brain. Then the brain is starved for blood and that's it. Both friends were quite healthy and still playing golf regularly.
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2nd leading cause of death. Strokes happen every 40 seconds in U.S. Tools and techniques exist to resolve many of these cases. Challenge is time.

Remember: FAST! F-facial drooping, A-weakness in arm or leg, S-inability to speak, and T-time (call 911).
 
WhenIsItTime said:
2nd leading cause of death. Strokes happen every 40 seconds in U.S. Tools and techniques exist to resolve many of these cases. Challenge is time.

Remember: FAST! F-facial drooping, A-weakness in arm or leg, S-inability to speak, and T-time (call 911).
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Exactly! :)
 
I’m a natural born saver but fairly new and yes late to the markets. Took a look at my 401k and although I anticipated some losses due to the overall market performance for the week, I was shook with a 5% loss. Maybe an overreaction on my part but I am curious by some of the savvy vets and members of this site if they’re rethinking of how their portfolios are vested?

I ran across an interesting quote that resonated w/me this morning “There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion.” —Ludwig von Mises

Thoughts?
 
Ninepoint5 said:
I am curious by some of the savvy vets and members of this site if they’re rethinking of how their portfolios are vested?
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I don't meet the savvy qualification but I am a vet and member of this site. :)

No, I am not rethinking my portfolio AA. I've learned the hard way that any change I make now is highly likely to be something I will regret in the future.
 
Ninepoint5 said:
Took a look at my 401k and although I anticipated some losses due to the overall market performance for the week, I was shook with a 5% loss. Maybe an overreaction on my part but I am curious by some of the savvy vets and members of this site if they’re rethinking of how their portfolios are vested?
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OldShooter knows more about investor psychology than I do, but remember that humans have a built-in bias called "loss aversion". That is, we feel more pain from losing something than the satisfaction we had in receiving it.

So, the pain you're feelng from that 5% paper loss is greater than the happiness you felt when you picked up that 5% paper gain.

We're also subject to "recency bias" -- we expect that whatever has been happening recently is likely to continue. Which means if the markets have been going up, you have a built in expectation that will continue.

Recency bias slamming into loss aversion is no fun. Suddenly our expectations haven't been met (the markets turned) AND we have loss aversion pain.

It can also lead people to do unfortunate things.

The sting of loss aversion makes them want to move money out so they don't get stung again (selling at the bottom).

A new round of recency bias (the market is falling and therefore will continue to do so) makes it very hard to invest in a down market.

This is why having a documented AA and investing policy statement is so valuable. It allows you to fight against our psychological biases and follow rules established absent near-term emotional drivers.

Interesting stuff.
 
I'm still nibbling ... very disturbed, but I'm trying to think long term.

Play money ... but, still disturbed.
 
A 5% loss is nothing to lose sleep over, IMO.

Since 2008 we have had one heck of an UP market and many people who are new investors have been a bit spoiled by one up year after another for the most part. We are bit like the spoiled child who hasn't heard the word "No!" for a long time.

Wake me when the market is down 20%, I might consider doing some buying at that time. Funding my retirement means I need robust gains. Those gains are more likely to come if I buy when the market is down a good chunk. I am past the days of putting much new money into the market. But, I have a stash of fund dividends and a CD coming due that could be reinvested at some point. Like I said, wake me with the market is down 20%.

My 2¢. Take what you wish and leave the rest.
 
Just another bump in the road.


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Nice chart Corn18.

I only would pull some out of stocks if the unemployment rate went above its moving average. Not going to happen any time soon.
 
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