DOW 15k here we come

[audreyh1]

The market tends to predict or price in economic events roughly 6 months out. In that time frame we should have bottomed out and be in a slow recovery. A vaccine would be available soon after that. We will only test the lows if there is a new revelation that throws this off track.

Yeah, the markets are so great at predicting economic events six months ahead, that there was a great sell off in Q4 of last year - NOT!

 

[Dtail]

Yeah, the markets are so great at predicting economic events six months ahead, that there was a great sell off in Q4 of last year - NOT!

Not to mention the sell off of 12/2018 being predicated on a bad economy in June 2019.

 

[Montecfo]

You heard it: DOW 15k

Market had a nice bounce the past two weeks and it could bounce up another 5-8%.

However, we are in for a nice downward trend over the next 12-18 months.

Earnings and current affects on social norms hasn’t taken effect yet and it’s looking rough the longer our economic engine is essentially shut down.

I do believe this will create amazing buying opportunities for those that are patient.

Ok so you know this but the market doesn't?

Hmm. I assume you are massively short.

For my part I would welcome a break much lower. Still some cash awaiting Investment.

 

[Markola]

Not to mention the sell off of 12/2018 being predicated on a bad economy in June 2019.

“The stock market has predicted 9 of the past 5 recessions”. - Paul Samuelson

“Nobody knows nothing.” - unknown mentor to a young Jack Bogle

 

[mckittri2000]

All depends on the pandemic. If we come out of it by the beginning of summer then I think we'll see 25000 before we see 15000. If it stays pertinent then we may hit 15000.

 

[cbo111]

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/stocks-are-going-higher-102118.html

Good one Aerides. I don't want to ever get on your naughty list ;o)

 

[Shredder]

I don't have a crystal ball, but google told me the average recession lasts 11 months.

If reopening the economy happens too fast it could set us back a while. If a vaccine comes out real soon, it won't last long. if, if, if, if

Seriously though, I think the virus will be the final arbiter.

 

[pb4uski]

I don't have a crystal ball, but google told me the average recession lasts 11 months. ...

The only problem is that this is not the average recession. The loss of 16.8 million jobs in three weeks is unprecedented.

 

[Clone]

I don't have a crystal ball, but google told me the average recession lasts 11 months.

I thought I had found the solution about a month ago, but in a fit of irrational exuberance, I fogot to get it ordered. Did anyone else pick up one of these?

 

[calmloki]

W2R has had one for a while.

My gauge for whether the market will collapse downward or explode upward is based on pure science: Did paparazzi capture photos from about 14" above the pavement of the young starlet du jour in an improbably short dress exiting a limo? Were those photos published? Called the Britney Index.

 

[ncbill]

All depends on the pandemic. If we come out of it by the beginning of summer then I think we'll see 25000 before we see 15000. If it stays pertinent then we may hit 15000.

Don't forget it isn't a one-time thing...once restrictions are relaxed a second wave is likely...is that priced in or will the market react at that time?

 

[VanWinkle]

Don't forget it isn't a one-time thing...once restrictions are relaxed a second wave is likely...is that priced in or will the market react at that time?

If you know that, the market is also aware. Whether it changes the reaction when it actually happens is anyone's guess. The market doesn't care it seems and has never done what I would prefer.

 

[VanWinkle]

The only problem is that this is not the average recession. The loss of 16.8 million jobs in three weeks is unprecedented.

I think this job displacement(vs unemployment as this is ordered by the officials) can't be compared directly with the past. In this way, it really is
different this time. Displacement of jobs does have some history and the recovery usually takes a different course than recession induced unemployment. These workers are currently furloughed and may become unemployed if there is no end to this. I'll agree that I've never seen this
type of job displacement before.

 

[sgstaley]

Netflix done well today.

 

[AbbA]

I don’t get it. In the above thread OP told us the market was going higher for the next several years in spite of coronavirus. Now the market is going to 15K? At what point will your realize how silly these conversations are.

Emotions talking! I was sort of hoping he would at least present technical charts and analyze them to prove that his 'crystal ball' is very clear this time, but opening emotion driven threads re stock market is pointless and not helpful to anyone. If he knew the answer, he wouldn't be hanging out (trolling?) on this forum but making money all day long.

 

[CBR900RR]

Other than the pandemic issue, trade war with China and crude oil price will have a big effect with the current market!

 

[mijoy]

Other than the pandemic issue, trade war with China and crude oil price will have a big effect with the current market!

I kind of agree with the OP. We have seen in the past that when one sector gets hit hard (thinking energy for example) the entire market suffers. The lingering effects of the virus will likely be many and long. Restaurants sports stadiums, concerts, casual shopping, so very much more. It would seem this will disrupt the market substantially until we settle into some kind of new norm.

I don't think this has been baked into the market yet. The market may be up substantially from the lows because of the stimulus and because the curve is beginning to flatten.

I get tempted to get caught up in some of the optimism, such as yesterday when the market was up some 2.3% or so. But then just gives it all back the next day; today the futures are pointing to an equal size loss.

Staying in cash a while longer. The way I see it, if I miss out on a 10-20% rally I'll be pretty disappointed. If I lose 10-20% I'll be suffering a probable life long impact. I will not have the time or the inclination to allocate in such a way I'll be able to get it all back. Better safe than sorry.

So far down 5% of highs, I am going to keep it that way.