Yes, discussions of cryptocurrency investments are, for the moment, no longer allowed. See the first and last post of this thread https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/the-cryptocurrency-thread-2-a-112448.html
Dow losing almost -1000 Friday .. when will it end? Do we get a V recovery?
- Thread starter cyber888
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W2R
Moderator Emeritus
Thank you!! Somehow I missed that whole cryptocurrency thread (probably because I have always invested in conventional broad mutual funds instead) and I had NO idea of that new moderation policy.
Chuckanut
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Getting back to the decline in the common stocks......
Assuming I don't have to completely use up the emergency funds that I keep aside for a bear market, I wonder about doing some buying if we do see the BEAR take a big chunk out of the market. I no longer consider myself in the accumulation phase but the temptation to buy low (or at least much lower) is tempting.
Anybody else out there who might be tempted?
Assuming I don't have to completely use up the emergency funds that I keep aside for a bear market, I wonder about doing some buying if we do see the BEAR take a big chunk out of the market. I no longer consider myself in the accumulation phase but the temptation to buy low (or at least much lower) is tempting.
Anybody else out there who might be tempted?
Jeffman52
Recycles dryer sheets
I will ride this one out like I did the last few. For me anyway, I still have one of those J*B's and am still planning to retire next year. But if the market is worse than expected, I could always wait and pile up some cushion. Currently WFH so its not a bad gig if I had to stick with it.
GravitySucks
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Well I bought a small bit April 2020, so I'm hoping to have the fortitude to do so again if we reach bear territory.
I won't buy to a point where I would have less than 10 years spending in fixed though. (With inflation that 10 might only last 7, need 6+ years to hit SS max.)
LOL. I can't win. I decided that after the interest rate hike today, I would buy in some more stock funds in my brokerage account and work retirement account. I kept checking in on the news. The S&P was down after the announcement. But then the Fed made some comments that sent the market way up.
pb4uski
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
I stand corrected... I didn't know about the crypto ban.
Dtail
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
I keep hearing that the market already prices in stuff in advance, but yet today the market shot up, even though everyone already expected the half point hike.
Like Mr. Bogle said........
Like Mr. Bogle said........
W2R
Moderator Emeritus
Hot dog!!!
Not that I plan to sell or buy, and I'm sorry for those who lost money from it, but still it's just nice to see the market bouncing back. Dow's up 932 points today. Who would have thought? It's still got some life in it, after all! 
Beststash
Full time employment: Posting here.
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Don't worry you'll get a chance again �� I found it interesting that Powell basically telegraphed that there would be at least 2 more 50 basis point hikes but when it announced that " at this time no 75 point hike" the market soared.
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NP. Not a ban, just a respite.
The market definitely prices everything in advance. Stuff that will happen, stuff that may happen, and stuff that will never happen, all are reflected in market prices.
Dtail
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
NP. Not a ban, just a respite.
The market definitely prices everything in advance. Stuff that will happen, stuff that may happen, and stuff that will never happen, all are reflected in market prices.
Clever, so basically nothing.
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“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”
-- Benjamin Graham (as reported by Warren Buffet)
Montecfo
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
There are those that say the market is "efficient". I have to say I disagree. Today provides more evidence.
SecondCor521
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Everyone expected the half point hike. As noted by someone else, the market was concerned about the possibility of one or more 75 basis point hikes. In the press conference, Powell essentially said that's off the table for now. Thus a (strong) relief rally.
Powell also talked about soft landings, and the Fed being determined enough to kill inflation but smart enough and with a strong enough economy to (probably/hopefully) avoid a recession. Both of these ideas may have also mollified investors.
Chuckanut
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
NP. Not a ban, just a respite.
The market definitely prices everything in advance. Stuff that will happen, stuff that may happen, and stuff that will never happen, all are reflected in market prices.
I think the nearly 1000 point gain in the market was because of crypto currency respite on this site. After all, this group is full of the cognoscenti who influence the expectations of the common people. So without crypto to distract us, we are a huge fountain of market predicting knowledge. Right?
The 900+ point advance is nice. Now add the icing to the cake with some solid increases in the T-bill and CD interest rates over the next few weeks. Then finish the cake with bright colored sprinkles in the form of a much lower inflation rate next quarter.
Oh, I did get the form letter from my Congress person acknowledging my email with the suggestion that the limit on I-bonds be lifted. I had hoped for something more encouraging such as "Mr. Chuckanut, that is a great idea. I will call the Treasury at once and get the ball rolling on raising the limit." Or at least a "Interesting idea, I'll have my staff look into it." No such luck.
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aja8888
Moderator Emeritus
Word on investment and macro boards I follow is that today was a short covering rally. I have no opinion, just reporting what I read in various places.
Dtail
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Could be a possibility.
Dtail
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Kind of a chicken vs. the egg argument.
If the market is efficient and has effectively priced in a 50 point rise and also the possibilities of 25 and 75 point rises on the edges of the bell curve, then there should not be very large movements.
Now if Powell stated that there would be future 75 pt increases, then I could see the possibilities of a drop.
Just not buying that the market prices in the majority of future events. Put inflation in that mix too and so on and so forth.
Chuckanut
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
I think it does, if it knows what the future events will be. There's the rub.
24601NoMore
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Many people (me included) believe earnings estimates are WAY too high and will start to come down. In fact, we're already starting to see that in guidance from companies that have announced results already.
If earnings estimates are indeed too high and have to come down, forward PE won't be 18X and will be more like 20-25-30X.
I personally believe that's a big part of why the selloff has happened and is likely to continue. One estimate I saw (from Morgan Stanley) was forecasting SPX 3,200 - 3,600 near-term. Whether that happens or not is TBD, but it's quite plausible if earnings forecasts continue to weaken.
Turbo29
Full time employment: Posting here.
Back in my twenties I was really into horse racing. For those who don't know, the odds are set in real time by the amount of money wagered on a given horse (in the US). One result of this is the track could care less who wins, they take all the money bet, take their (and the government's) cut off the top and then just redistribute what's left to the winners.
The interesting thing was that statistically the horse with the most amount of money bet was the most likely to win; second highest amount of money, second most likely to win, and so on down to the horse with the least amount of money bet being least likely to win. The betting public knew in aggregate which was the best horse; all the known information was baked into the betting. Sort of like the market.
Why not bet on the favorite each time? Well unfortunately even though they won the most often, they still lost ~70% of the time and when they did win, it didn't pay enough to make up for the losses.
We got the " V " recovery today .. Dow down -900+ last week ... up +900 this week.
Yeah well, 0.5% was clearly priced in.
But the explanation why we tanked hard last week, was because of "ONE" unknown factor that the talking heads at CNBC/Bloomberg were yappin about .. "maybe the Fed might do a 0.75% - 1.00% increase" - I still heard that again on CNBC today, minutes before Powell started talking.
... Powell said "Nope, we're not going to do 0.75%. No Way" - that was Steve Leesman from CNBC asking Powell that question. Once Powell answered, boom .. indices started skyrocketing immediately.
Yeah well, 0.5% was clearly priced in.
But the explanation why we tanked hard last week, was because of "ONE" unknown factor that the talking heads at CNBC/Bloomberg were yappin about .. "maybe the Fed might do a 0.75% - 1.00% increase" - I still heard that again on CNBC today, minutes before Powell started talking.
... Powell said "Nope, we're not going to do 0.75%. No Way" - that was Steve Leesman from CNBC asking Powell that question. Once Powell answered, boom .. indices started skyrocketing immediately.
Powell is the same guy who last year said that inflation was transitory despite mounting evidence to the contrary, and look how that has turned out. The man has very little credibility at this point and I wouldn't take anything he says at face value.
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That sounds a lot like the stock market!
