Yes, discussions of cryptocurrency investments are, for the moment, no longer allowed. See the first and last post of this thread https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/the-cryptocurrency-thread-2-a-112448.html
Yes, discussions of cryptocurrency investments are, for the moment, no longer allowed. See the first and last post of this thread https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/the-cryptocurrency-thread-2-a-112448.html
Well I bought a small bit April 2020, so I'm hoping to have the fortitude to do so again if we reach bear territory.Getting back to the decline in the common stocks......
Assuming I don't have to completely use up the emergency funds that I keep aside for a bear market, I wonder about doing some buying if we do see the BEAR take a big chunk out of the market. I no longer consider myself in the accumulation phase but the temptation to buy low (or at least much lower) is tempting.
Anybody else out there who might be tempted?
I stand corrected... I didn't know about the crypto ban.Yes, discussions of cryptocurrency investments are, for the moment, no longer allowed. See the first and last post of this thread https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/the-cryptocurrency-thread-2-a-112448.html
Fed made some comments that sent the market way up.
Don't worry you'll get a chance again �� I found it interesting that Powell basically telegraphed that there would be at least 2 more 50 basis point hikes but when it announced that " at this time no 75 point hike" the market soared.LOL. I can't win. I decided that after the interest rate hike today, I would buy in some more stock funds in my brokerage account and work retirement account. I kept checking in on the news. The S&P was down after the announcement. But then the Fed made some comments that sent the market way up.
NP. Not a ban, just a respite.I stand corrected... I didn't know about the crypto ban.
The market definitely prices everything in advance. Stuff that will happen, stuff that may happen, and stuff that will never happen, all are reflected in market prices.I keep hearing that the market already prices in stuff in advance, but yet today the market shot up, even though everyone already expected the half point hike.
Like Mr. Bogle said........
NP. Not a ban, just a respite.
The market definitely prices everything in advance. Stuff that will happen, stuff that may happen, and stuff that will never happen, all are reflected in market prices.
I keep hearing that the market already prices in stuff in advance, but yet today the market shot up, even though everyone already expected the half point hike....
The market definitely prices everything in advance. Stuff that will happen, stuff that may happen, and stuff that will never happen, all are reflected in market prices.
I keep hearing that the market already prices in stuff in advance, but yet today the market shot up, even though everyone already expected the half point hike.
Like Mr. Bogle said........
I keep hearing that the market already prices in stuff in advance, but yet today the market shot up, even though everyone already expected the half point hike.
Like Mr. Bogle said........
NP. Not a ban, just a respite.
The market definitely prices everything in advance. Stuff that will happen, stuff that may happen, and stuff that will never happen, all are reflected in market prices.
I keep hearing that the market already prices in stuff in advance, but yet today the market shot up, even though everyone already expected the half point hike.
Like Mr. Bogle said........
Word on investment and macro boards I follow is that today was a short covering rally. I have no opinion, just reporting what I read in various places.
Everyone expected the half point hike. As noted by someone else, the market was concerned about the possibility of one or more 75 basis point hikes. In the press conference, Powell essentially said that's off the table for now. Thus a (strong) relief rally.
Powell also talked about soft landings, and the Fed being determined enough to kill inflation but smart enough and with a strong enough economy to (probably/hopefully) avoid a recession. Both of these ideas may have also mollified investors.
Just not buying that the market prices in the majority of future events. Put inflation in that mix too and so on and so forth.
In terms of valuation we are now at ~18x forward earnings, thats not significantly high and finally when you add to the fact that investor sentiment readings this week are the lowest since March 2009 I think we are ripe for violent upswings eventually and possible very soon.
The market definitely prices everything in advance. Stuff that will happen, stuff that may happen, and stuff that will never happen, all are reflected in market prices.
We got the " V " recovery today .. Dow down -900+ last week ... up +900 this week.
Yeah well, 0.5% was clearly priced in.
But the explanation why we tanked hard last week, was because of "ONE" unknown factor that the talking heads at CNBC/Bloomberg were yappin about .. "maybe the Fed might do a 0.75% - 1.00% increase" - I still heard that again on CNBC today, minutes before Powell started talking.
... Powell said "Nope, we're not going to do 0.75%. No Way" - that was Steve Leesman from CNBC asking Powell that question. Once Powell answered, boom .. indices started skyrocketing immediately.
Back in my twenties I was really into horse racing. For those who don't know, the odds are set in real time by the amount of money wagered on a given horse (in the US). One result of this is the track could care less who wins, they take all the money bet, take their (and the government's) cut off the top and then just redistribute what's left to the winners.
The interesting thing was that statistically the horse with the most amount of money bet was the most likely to win; second highest amount of money, second most likely to win, and so on down to the horse with the least amount of money bet being least likely to win. The betting public knew in aggregate which was the best horse; all the known information was baked into the betting. Sort of like the market.
Why not bet on the favorite each time? Well unfortunately even though they won the most often, they still lost ~70% of the time and when they did win, it didn't pay enough to make up for the losses.