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Hi and I want Go-Big-Or-Go-Home Investment Ideas for My Roth IRA
Old 08-02-2021, 08:56 AM   #1
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Hi and I want Go-Big-Or-Go-Home Investment Ideas for My Roth IRA

Hi Y'all

Long time lurker and first time poster. I've learnt a lot from this forum and others over the years and find myself in a good position.

I'm due to retire in the next few years in my 50's. I have a nice pension and 401K more than enough to cover my expenses with SS to come.

My company offers 401K plans AND a Roth IRA (via a 401a which is rolled over into the Roth). I intend to max out both. Recall a Roth IRA is never taxable on earnings or withdrawals.

I view the contributions to the Roth as being my "go-big-or-go-home" investment plays. Investing the money there into a well balanced portfolio that will return 5% isn't going to change my lifestyle much. But investing in the next Amazon, Netflix, Monster Energy will! Suggestions for sectors as well would be great. The Roth is with fidelity and they have a number of sector funds.

A surrogate question is: "What major societal changes will/have occur that a well run company can monetize?"

So what are people's suggestions/tips. All welcome no judging!
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Old 08-02-2021, 09:01 AM   #2
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I use index funds in my ROTH, but it’s not well balanced. It’s 100% stock. Maybe go with a stock index for 90% of your ROTH and take the 10% and look for the next Amazon.
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Old 08-02-2021, 09:18 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by raria View Post
... I view the contributions to the Roth as being my "go-big-or-go-home" investment plays. Investing the money there into a well balanced portfolio that will return 5% isn't going to change my lifestyle much. But investing in the next Amazon, Netflix, Monster Energy will! ...
Decades of data consistently say that the only way to identify the big winners is in the rear view mirror. So trying to pick them ahead of time is a crap shoot. As long as you understand that, you are good to go. If that's the tactic, though, beware diversification. Diversification will dilute the impact if you get lucky.

Relying on public knowledge will also reduce your probability of a big win. (from Rick Ferri's "All About Asset Allocation" : "There is a classic saying on Wall Street, 'What everybody already knows is not worth knowing.' ") You need to know something that the market has not already priced or overpriced into the stock value. This probably means looking at stocks that do not have analyst coverage. IIRC AAII (https://www.aaii.com/) used to call these "shadow stocks."
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Old 08-02-2021, 09:26 AM   #4
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Thanks for the warnings. I understand I could end up with nothing, but that's fine. My pension and 401K are more than adequate to cover my expenses.

Let the big ideas roll.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerry1 View Post
I use index funds in my ROTH, but itís not well balanced. Itís 100% stock. Maybe go with a stock index for 90% of your ROTH and take the 10% and look for the next Amazon.
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Originally Posted by OldShooter View Post
Decades of data consistently say that the only way to identify the big winners is in the rear view mirror. So trying to pick them ahead of time is a crap shoot. As long as you understand that, you are good to go. If that's the tactic, though, beware diversification. Diversification will dilute the impact if you get lucky.

Relying on public knowledge will also reduce your probability of a big win. (from Rick Ferri's "All About Asset Allocation" : "There is a classic saying on Wall Street, 'What everybody already knows is not worth knowing.' ") You need to know something that the market has not already priced or overpriced into the stock value. This probably means looking at stocks that do not have analyst coverage. IIRC AAII (https://www.aaii.com/) used to call these "shadow stocks."
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Old 08-02-2021, 09:27 AM   #5
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How about these ideas?

PINS
ETSY
TDOC
SHOP
TTD
SNAP
PLUG
MELI
SE

truly "undiscovered"? No idea
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Old 08-02-2021, 09:38 AM   #6
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I'd want my more speculative investments taxable so I can write off the losses. Much more likely to buy the next Pets.com than Amazon.com IMO. If I hit one out of the park, I can think of worse things than paying taxes on my billions in capital gains.
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Old 08-02-2021, 09:43 AM   #7
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... truly "undiscovered"? No idea
Well, looking for stocks that are so thinly traded that big funds can't buy them might be a tactic. Most probably won't grow enough to end up on a fund's radar, but some might be acquired by buyers who are willing to pay up for some special technology.

With roughly 10,000 US funds and roughly US 3,600 tradeable stocks, you have to believe that every tradeable stock is frequently looked at by multiple analysts. Even looking worldwide there are something like 7,000 stocks so, worldwide, analysts must outnumber stocks many times to one.

"Undiscovered?" Maybe one of the Dead Sea caves contains some stock certificates tucked in with the scrolls?

Even the venerable Ben Graham said, in an interview shortly before his death:
In general ... I am no longer an advocate of elaborate techniques of security analysis in order to find superior value opportunities. This was a rewarding activity, say, 40 years ago, when our textbook "Graham and Dodd" was first published; but the situation has changed a great deal since then. In the old days any well-trained security analyst could do a good professional job of selecting undervalued issues through detailed studies; but in the light of the enormous amount of research now being carried on, I doubt whether in most cases such extensive efforts will generate sufficiently superior selections to justify their cost. (http://www.grahamanddoddsville.net/w...20-%201976.pdf
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Old 08-02-2021, 09:44 AM   #8
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Put mine in GOOGL a decade ago. Working.
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Old 08-02-2021, 09:49 AM   #9
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Put mine in GOOGL a decade ago. Working.
Now that's an interesting idea. Your saying invest in market leaders in industries that have more to grow. Thanks.
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Old 08-02-2021, 09:50 AM   #10
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How about these ideas?

PINS
ETSY
TDOC
SHOP
TTD
SNAP
PLUG
MELI
SE

truly "undiscovered"? No idea
Thanks but doesn't have to be actual stocks, can be areas/sectors/ideas. For example, I've been looking at artificial meat as many millennial (25+%) are vegetarians.
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Old 08-02-2021, 10:59 AM   #11
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Qqq
ftec
arkk
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Old 08-02-2021, 11:05 AM   #12
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Thanks but doesn't have to be actual stocks, can be areas/sectors/ideas. For example, I've been looking at artificial meat as many millennial (25+%) are vegetarians.
That's a pretty tough space I think. Something some consumers like the idea of but will like it less once they understand the product.

And 25 pct seems quite high. But it is trendy to say so.
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Old 08-02-2021, 12:48 PM   #13
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Well, OP seems to understand the risk/reward, and has a back up plan (I'll assume these are all well thought out, consider inflation, etc), so sure, why not? I'll play!

Why not Las Vegas (seriously)? Put it all on 17 (or your favorite #). Roulette actually has a pretty low average % that goes to the house. I seriously think that may be a better bet than a stock pick.

Thoughts?

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Old 08-02-2021, 01:01 PM   #14
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This obviously isnít the thread to discuss index investing, and the OP has acknowledged the risks, so letís move the thread to the stock picking and alternative assets forum.
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Old 08-02-2021, 01:22 PM   #15
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I decided to do something similar for a small Roth potentially designated for grandkids. Cannabis, EVís, water purification, and solar would be the sectors Iíd target. Iíve purchased Canopy for cannabis, Workhorse for EVís, and Brookfield Renewable. Havenít researched water companies yet.
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Old 08-02-2021, 01:31 PM   #16
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Now that's an interesting idea. Your saying invest in market leaders in industries that have more to grow. Thanks.
+1
And as long as the facts don't change stay the course. Whenever I've been inpatient and thought about selling something good happens.
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Old 08-02-2021, 01:46 PM   #17
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Now that's an interesting idea. Your saying invest in market leaders in industries that have more to grow. Thanks.
The problem is that a good company with good potential may not be a good investment. Here is investing patriarch Ben Graham (in "The Intelligent Investor") on the problem:
" ... we hope to implant in the reader a tendency to measure or quantify. For 99 issues out of 100 we could say that at some price they are cheap enough to buy and at some other price they would be so dear that they should be sold. The habit of relating what is paid to what is being offered is an invaluable trait in investment. In an article in a womenís magazine many years ago we advised the readers to buy their stocks as they bought their groceries, not as they bought their perfume. The really dreadful losses of the past few years (and on many similar occasions before) were realized in those common-stock issues where the buyer forgot to ask ďHow much?""
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Old 08-02-2021, 02:01 PM   #18
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I decided to do something similar for a small Roth potentially designated for grandkids. Cannabis, EVís, water purification, and solar would be the sectors Iíd target. Iíve purchased Canopy for cannabis, Workhorse for EVís, and Brookfield Renewable. Havenít researched water companies yet.
Water and purification/filtering has been a good space for a long time. Stocks seldom seem cheap but I think that reflects the value seen.
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Old 08-02-2021, 02:30 PM   #19
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I decided to do something similar for a small Roth potentially designated for grandkids. Cannabis, EVís, water purification, and solar would be the sectors Iíd target. Iíve purchased Canopy for cannabis, Workhorse for EVís, and Brookfield Renewable. Havenít researched water companies yet.


Ohh, I really like these as options!
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Old 08-02-2021, 02:32 PM   #20
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COIN for crypto. Or as others have mentioned ARKK for all of the above.
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