Hi and I want Go-Big-Or-Go-Home Investment Ideas for My Roth IRA

What about the new 'meme funds' like FOMO and BUZZ that are allegedly investing in companies fueled by social media trends?

Hey, you asked!
 
raria said:
A surrogate question is: "What major societal changes will/have occur that a well run company can monetize?"
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You might want to look into EV sector.

Yesterday, the WSJ had a story “Auto Makers Aim to Boost EV Sales to 40%-50% of U.S. Sales by 2030”. That means there’s going to be a lot of money going into EVs, the technology (like batteries), and support infrastructure (like the charging networks).
 
CoolRich59 said:
... Yesterday, the WSJ had a story “Auto Makers Aim to Boost EV Sales to 40%-50% of U.S. Sales by 2030”. That means there’s going to be a lot of money going into EVs, the technology (like batteries), and support infrastructure (like the charging networks).
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And, of course, nobody else knows this. :LOL:
 
Index funds and TSLA!!

If it's non-retirement account and you have time/effort/energy/risk tolerant... Short-term rentals (STR)!

If you want the time-proven method, solid index funds. Lots of posts here and YouTube to help you find the best ones.
 
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HULU European Expansion?

Saw Hulu media CEO on CNBC talking about the company's plans to get into European mkt. I can see them doing well.
 
This is the right answer….

This is the right approach. Tesla in particular, will dominate over the next 10-20 years, in my opinion.

joesxm3 said:
If you want some disruptive companies or industries, take a look at the Ark Investment funds. You can either buy the ETF's or just look at their list of holdings to pick some specific companies.

One area that I think will be very disruptive and important in the next decade is genomics. There is the ARKG ETF that invests in this space. I recently watched a two hour interview with one of the ARKG analysts and he explained how there are several areas that intersect - genomics, robotics (to do the gene sequencing and other tasks cheaply at scale) and AI which drives the analysis of the genetic information. He felt that the rapidly decreasing costs related to gene sequencing would result in huge advances in medical treatment. The interview was two hours long and I ended up staying up way past bedtime to finish it. The thing that really caught my attention was "liquid biopsies", which detect cancer by sequencing the DNA shed from the tumors in the blood.

One area that caught my interest is gene editing. There are several companies in this space that may be like buying a lottery ticket. CRSP, NTLA, BEAM, EDIT, CRBU (which just had and IPO last week).

In the way of large companies likely to dominate their spaces, Tesla and Google come to mind. Tesla being much more than a car company, with all of their huge battery development (the fire in Australia aside). Google also has a 10% ownership of Space-X, so that is a way to invest in that since Space-X will probably not go public.

Now if you really want to "go big or go home", then you should take a stroll in the crypto casino. You can buy GBTC and ETHE from Grayscale in your IRA's to get BTC or ETH exposure. From what they say, bitcoin will either be worth a million in 10 years or worth nothing.
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The unmentioned disruptor.....blockchain

USGrant1962 said:
COIN for crypto. Or as others have mentioned ARKK for all of the above.
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+1
Crytpo currencies are here to stay.
Crytpo 'rides' on a blockchain.
It's blockchain technology that's going to be the biggest disruptor....that and the distributive applications that are and will be developed for them (i.e., Bitcoin).
Financial markets, healthcare, governmental services + voting (democracy), property ownership, personal identification and personal information, trademarks and ownership titles, etc,; all are affected currently by blockchain technology.
And plenty of name brand companies (JP, Amazon, Walmart, IBM, United Healthcare, etc) are investing big in blockchain technology to streamline and create efficiencies in the everyday processes.
And just wait until Ethereum 2.0 takes off (Proof of Stake blockchain - as opposed to bitcoin's proof of work).

Its a new era.

My 'I can afford to loose this cash' money is heavily invested in crypto currencies, companies investing in blockchain technologies; both start-ups and established companies; and doing rather well.

In 2018, I read Blockchain Revolution...it took me from 0 knowledge to a usable knowledge of the technology. And from there I just kept on.
 
Gumby said:
I know of an investment strategy in which you have a 47.37% probability of doubling your money almost instantly. And since you asked nicely, I'll tell you - go to the roulette wheel at the casino and put it all on red. The downside is that you have a 52.63% probability of losing everything, but you said that would be OK.
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It happens... Go big or go home, in less than a minute.

 
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Go big

It's not about discovering the next big growth stock (as any "fool" will tell you), it's about holding it long term and riding through the inevitable volatility and the will to let a stock, or stocks, be a high percentage of the account.
 
Car-Guy said:
It happens... Go big or go home, in less than a minute.

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I wonder what the taxes were on that? He is apparently from England, and the bet was in Las Vegas - I don't know how taxation would work. But it would all be lumped in one year, and regular income I assume, which would probably increase the tax hit in any case.

He shoulda just gone for "7"! :)


-ERD50

.
 
Gazingus said:
It's not about discovering the next big growth stock (as any "fool" will tell you), it's about holding it long term and riding through the inevitable volatility and the will to let a stock, or stocks, be a high percentage of the account.
Click to expand...


But it can also be about knowing when to get out. My Sister-in Law once asked me how to get a stock that isn't trading off her books, and/or how can she declare the loss (there is a procedure for this, it isn't complicated).

Turns out, she bought a penny stock that went through the roof. I don't recall the exact numbers, but I think we are talking something really wild, like a 50x gain, on a non-trivial amount invested! But she held, all of it, all the way to ZERO. :(

I'm not sure how to find the stock price history on de-listed/merged/bought-out stocks?

https://www.safety-kleen.com/about-us/our-history

The 1980’s: In 1982, Safety-Kleen became listed on the New York Stock Exchange and by the end of the year held more than 9.1 million shares, grew to a company worth a billion dollars and employed nearly 5,000.

In 1987, Safety-Kleen began its oil recovery business, which reclaimed used oil and re-refined it through their first re-refinery in Breslau, Ontario Canada.

The 1990’s: In 1998, Safety-Kleen merged with Laidlaw Environmental. Unfortunately the success of the merger was short-lived and Safety-Kleen filed for bankruptcy in 2000.
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-ERD50
 
ERD50 said:
I wonder what the taxes were on that? He is apparently from England, and the bet was in Las Vegas - I don't know how taxation would work. But it would all be lumped in one year, and regular income I assume, which would probably increase the tax hit in any case.

He shoulda just gone for "7"! :)


-ERD50

.
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I wonder too.. And yes, it's to bad he didn't "go for it" and put it on #7... Hindsight is sometimes a wonderful thing, but not in this case.:)

I know very well how gambling taxation works for folks who live and gamble in the US... I'm not sure how they handle taxes for someone that is from out of the country but I suspect the US Gov expects their "cut"...In any event, no W2G's are issued for winning on roulette (even if you win that big) but you are still obligated to report your winnings when you file your annual tax return. The income tax burden can be offset by your losses of course but it all still needs to be reported.

As it is in the video above, he only won 136k (even money bet), and that's not enough to retire on IMO. But if he had put the entire 136k on #7 for that spin, he would have won $4,760,000 usd on that hit... Now that's serious money for an everyday Joe.
 
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I've noticed a few posts recommending cryptocurrency. I am not expert-maybe its here to stay and maybe it isn't. But I would say this. In its current form, it is being used by criminals and money-launderers. That is not going to last. Governments will end up doing something to curtail this. In the short to medium term I see this as a major downside risk.

So, does that mean I suggest NOT to invest in these "newfangled" currencies? No. What I suggest-IF you think it is the way of the future and the next big thing-is to mitigate your downside risk IF I am right and there is some sort of a government crackdown in the short to medium term. (As we are already seeing.)

How is this done? Lots of ways. Perhaps invest in a company that moves in part with the movement of cryptocurrency. Take a company like Square. (SQ) It has a large holding of bitcoins. Buying this company gives you exposure to Bitcoin but mitigates the risk of holding it outright. There are other companies that hold bitcoin or trade bitcoin. Think about all the various ways you could invest in the cryptocurrency without holding it outright. There are lots of ways!

My point is there are many ways to invest in crypto, if that's your thing, while also mitigating risk.

Another VERY important point for holding and trading any cryptocurrency outright. There are tax issues relating to holding bitcoin and trading bitcoin that are very different from stock investments. Be sure to understand the tax implications (if you are a U.S. citizen at least) BEFORE investing.

I am not suggesting not to invest because of the tax implications. Not at all! But you absolutely must understand these issues before buying your first coin.

Just my two cents...err, two bitcoins. :)


(edited for typo)
 
FIREarly said:
Index funds and TSLA!! ...
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Well, the OP isn't interested in index funds. Tesla, though, makes a good illustration of what happens when the herd of greater fools gets ahold of a stock: numbers go out the window.

Just back of the envelope: Worldwide vehicle production is about 100 million/year. (https://www.statista.com/statistics/262747/worldwide-automobile-production-since-2000/) The Tesla zealots will say this badly undershoots, but let's hypothesize that Tesla will achieve a 20% market share, or 20M units. Tesla's goal for this year is to produce a million cars and says their planned growth rate in capacity is 50% per year. (https://www.marklines.com/en/report/rep2151_202104) Run the numbers and it will take Tesla almost 8 years to develop enough manufacturing capacity to serve 20% of the market. Never mind the near impossibility of sustaining such a growth rate over a long period. Never mind that huge amounts of capital investment that would be needed. Never mind that new stock issues to obtain part of that capital will dilute existing investors.

Another one I did a few months ago and am too lazy to repeat: Take Tesla's current market cap and assume a mature company P/E (20?) to get the amount of profit a mature Tesla must earn. Now hypothesize a reasonable profit margin per vehicle and divide to get the number of vehicles that must be sold to achieve that profit amount. When I did it, with my numbers, the number of vehicles was roughly equal to the projected total worldwide market -- 100% share. This is ridiculous on its face, not even considering that the world's biggest economy will be largely off-limits to non-Chinese manufacturers.

The point here is not to pick on Tesla. Virtually all greater-fool bubbles feature these kind of numbers. There is nothing new here and this time it's not different. For cradle-to-grave stories look at Worldcom, JDS Uniphase, or some of the other tech darlings from last time around.

Moral: The train has left the station on virtually all the stocks identified in these posts. To win big, the OP has to find a stock or two that has not yet been discovered by the greater fools.

Cathy whatshername is an interesting situation too. She really doesn't care if her funds eventually crash. She is in the game for the fees she can collect by pumping the product and attracting investors. If she has increased her market cap (and her fees) by 10x and can hold that for just a few years before the crash, she is set for life, even if leaving a smoking wreck where ARKK used to be.
 
^^^^

Tesla shareholders already price the stock as if the company will be the only car maker in the world, and all other existing car makers will go bankrupt and disappear.

And if this happens, remember the promised Level 5 autopilot. If it also become true, it means cheap robotaxis, and the sole car maker in the world now gets to sell fewer cars.
 
OldShooter said:
Well, the OP isn't interested in index funds. Tesla, though, makes a good illustration of what happens when the herd of greater fools gets ahold of a stock: numbers go out the window.

Just back of the envelope: Worldwide vehicle production is about 100 million/year. (https://www.statista.com/statistics/262747/worldwide-automobile-production-since-2000/) The Tesla zealots will say this badly undershoots, but let's hypothesize that Tesla will achieve a 20% market share, or 20M units. Tesla's goal for this year is to produce a million cars and says their planned growth rate in capacity is 50% per year. (https://www.marklines.com/en/report/rep2151_202104) Run the numbers and it will take Tesla almost 8 years to develop enough manufacturing capacity to serve 20% of the market. Never mind the near impossibility of sustaining such a growth rate over a long period. Never mind that huge amounts of capital investment that would be needed. Never mind that new stock issues to obtain part of that capital will dilute existing investors.

Another one I did a few months ago and am too lazy to repeat: Take Tesla's current market cap and assume a mature company P/E (20?) to get the amount of profit a mature Tesla must earn. Now hypothesize a reasonable profit margin per vehicle and divide to get the number of vehicles that must be sold to achieve that profit amount. When I did it, with my numbers, the number of vehicles was roughly equal to the projected total worldwide market -- 100% share. This is ridiculous on its face, not even considering that the world's biggest economy will be largely off-limits to non-Chinese manufacturers.

The point here is not to pick on Tesla. Virtually all greater-fool bubbles feature these kind of numbers. There is nothing new here and this time it's not different. For cradle-to-grave stories look at Worldcom, JDS Uniphase, or some of the other tech darlings from last time around.

Moral: The train has left the station on virtually all the stocks identified in these posts. To win big, the OP has to find a stock or two that has not yet been discovered by the greater fools.

Cathy whatshername is an interesting situation too. She really doesn't care if her funds eventually crash. She is in the game for the fees she can collect by pumping the product and attracting investors. If she has increased her market cap (and her fees) by 10x and can hold that for just a few years before the crash, she is set for life, even if leaving a smoking wreck where ARKK used to be.
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Good thing Tesla isn't a car company.
 
MRG said:
Good thing Tesla isn't a car company.
Click to expand...

Besides car making, Tesla also has some revenue from the energy operation, namely solar installation, battery storage for residential and commercial installations. This energy division is small compared to Tesla's car business.

Growth in the energy sector is not without competition. Several companies are building large battery storage units at utility scale. The residential solar operation bought from SolarCity lost money, and I don't know if it makes money yet.

Tesla is looking to make its own battery. Don't know how it is working out, but Tesla said it would be buying cells from other makers for quite a long time to come. The growth of EVs and energy storage will be limited by availability of battery. Perhaps investing in battery makers is a safer bet.

Some analysts projected big valuation on the future robotaxi operation. Given how the Tesla FSD is working right now, this is another case of counting your chicken before the eggs hatch. Well, more like before the eggs are laid.

Maybe it will work out. :) I don't like the risk, and think I can make money elsewhere with a better chance.
 
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OldShooter said:
Well, the OP isn't interested in index funds. Tesla, though, makes a good illustration of what happens when the herd of greater fools gets ahold of a stock: numbers go out the window.

Just back of the envelope: Worldwide vehicle production is about 100 million/year. (https://www.statista.com/statistics/262747/worldwide-automobile-production-since-2000/) The Tesla zealots will say this badly undershoots, but let's hypothesize that Tesla will achieve a 20% market share, or 20M units. Tesla's goal for this year is to produce a million cars and says their planned growth rate in capacity is 50% per year. (https://www.marklines.com/en/report/rep2151_202104) Run the numbers and it will take Tesla almost 8 years to develop enough manufacturing capacity to serve 20% of the market. Never mind the near impossibility of sustaining such a growth rate over a long period. Never mind that huge amounts of capital investment that would be needed. Never mind that new stock issues to obtain part of that capital will dilute existing investors.

Another one I did a few months ago and am too lazy to repeat: Take Tesla's current market cap and assume a mature company P/E (20?) to get the amount of profit a mature Tesla must earn. Now hypothesize a reasonable profit margin per vehicle and divide to get the number of vehicles that must be sold to achieve that profit amount. When I did it, with my numbers, the number of vehicles was roughly equal to the projected total worldwide market -- 100% share. This is ridiculous on its face, not even considering that the world's biggest economy will be largely off-limits to non-Chinese manufacturers.

The point here is not to pick on Tesla. Virtually all greater-fool bubbles feature these kind of numbers. There is nothing new here and this time it's not different. For cradle-to-grave stories look at Worldcom, JDS Uniphase, or some of the other tech darlings from last time around.

Moral: The train has left the station on virtually all the stocks identified in these posts. To win big, the OP has to find a stock or two that has not yet been discovered by the greater fools.

Cathy whatshername is an interesting situation too. She really doesn't care if her funds eventually crash. She is in the game for the fees she can collect by pumping the product and attracting investors. If she has increased her market cap (and her fees) by 10x and can hold that for just a few years before the crash, she is set for life, even if leaving a smoking wreck where ARKK used to be.
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TSLA is my "Go Big" stock in my Roth IRA (50%) and overall investments (15%). I was curious about your logic and figured I should check it out. Since last quarter TSLA produced 200,000 cars I figure if I multiply by 100 to get 20M units sold, I can do the same to their financials from the last quarter and see what happens. Earnings was $1.45/share, so earnings would be $145/share for 20M units. Given the current price of TSLA of $715(-ish) that gives a P/E of 5. Hardly scientific, but since we're throwing around generalities why not. So according to your methodology if I want a P/E of 20 I should price the stock at $2,900 in 2030(?).

And the above assumes they will continue extra heavy R&D (which they wouldn't) and large stock payments to Musk (this stops in less than a year). If I backed out those costs from last quarter, the earnings go well over $2 / share. And you can figure out how much stock price would be at 20 P/E. Not to mention this assumes no robo-taxis (90+% chance this will happen by 2030), and no profits on other business ventures (these will grow not shrink). And if the "Green New Deal" becomes law, TSLA's profit per car will likely increase 50% from what it is now.

Another way to look at it would be gross margins on vehicles. For Ford it was 8%, GM was 13%. And those are for internal combustion engine cars that they actually understand. For EVs, their gross margins are currently near zero if not negative (their current EVs are loss leaders). For the last four quarters, TSLA's worst gross margin was 20% (latest was over 25%), and its been growing. So I don't think TSLA would need to make near the amount of cars you think they do.

And as pointed out by others TSLA is much more than a car company, and may just leave that market once other endeavors make even higher margins. If you want to stick with legacy automakers, feel free. But I'll go big with TSLA for now. And I also have some money in ARK funds (though only 1% for now)
 
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PhrugalPhan said:
... I was curious about your logic and figured I should check it out. ...
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Thank you for making my point for me. You apparently bought Tesla without having made any kind of analysis, as did most other Tesla owners IMO. That is bubble stuff.

Be careful about gross margin numbers. In mature and efficient markets, margins collapse to the point where the most efficient producers are just making an acceptable ROI. That's why the UAW nearly killed American car manufacturing; they didn't understand this. A mature EV market will be no different.
 
PhrugalPhan said:
Since last quarter TSLA produced 200,000 cars I figure if I multiply by 100 to get 20M units sold, I can do the same to their financials from the last quarter and see what happens.
Click to expand...

I think the max number of cars sold in the US was like 18M. What makes you think that ONE manufacturer could sell more than that?
 
Out-to-Lunch said:
I think the max number of cars sold in the US was like 18M. What makes you think that ONE manufacturer could sell more than that?
Click to expand...

Tesla sells outside the US. That 18M figure isn't the limit.

For example, Toyota's worldwide sales are about 5x its US sales.

Just pointing out a fact, I'm making no comment on what I think Tesla sales volume may or may not be at any point. I have no crystal ball.

-ERD50
 
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