Hi and I want Go-Big-Or-Go-Home Investment Ideas for My Roth IRA

[Out-to-Lunch]

Tesla sells outside the US. That 18M figure isn't the limit.

For example, Toyota's worldwide sales are about 5x its US sales.

Just pointing out a fact, I'm making no comment on what I think Tesla sales volume may or may not be at any point. I have no crystal ball.

-ERD50

Yeah, you are right. Thanks. In the middle of the night last night, my sleeping brain told me that I made this this elementary mistake!

 

[FIREarly]

You can contribute to my retirement Go Fund Me page, jk!

 

[NoiseBoy]

Last year I had a very similar idea; identify the next Amazon/Apple/Google and invest ~5% of my portfolio in the company(s). I got things started by buying Apple & Tesla just before their respective splits. I double-downed on the EV band wagon and bought NIO, a Chinese EV maker and followed that up with an investment in QuantumScape, a company that is trying to build a solid state battery for the car market. I diversified with a pot stock, Tilray, and also dumped an amount equal to all of these equity plays into a VG energy sector fund mainly for its dividend. My final play was putting $20k into BTC this spring just before the price dropped like a rock. I should note that all of the money for my speculations came from cash-like investments that were earning next to nothing last year (and still would be.)

Overall, I picked more winners than losers, but my two big losses (QS & BTC) have taken a pretty big bite out of my total return. When I last ran the numbers, my speculation portfolio was trailing a 100% S&P investment by about 2 points. Not horrible, but it's cooled my enthusiasm for stock picking. Out of my choices, I think QuantumScape is the one that could deliver out-sized returns, but only if they can make the technology work and there's a lot of negative press on that. NIO has definitely been discovered already, but it might have more room to run than TSLA going forward? Another EV stock to keep an eye out for is Rivian. They're scheduled to start making deliveries of their truck & SUV next month, and have an order for 100,000 EV delivery vans from Amazon in their pocket. They haven't announced the date of their IPO yet.

What have I learned? Well, I need to figure out a "when should I sell and pay the taxes" number because several of my stocks had pretty big run ups before the bloom wore off the EV rose in March. I was holding at least two stocks that had more than doubled, but I didn't sell. Some of that was hoping that they will out-perform the market long term (TSLA), and some of it was simply not knowing what else I'd buy.

 

[dheb]

Thanks but doesn't have to be actual stocks, can be areas/sectors/ideas. For example, I've been looking at artificial meat as many millennial (25+%) are vegetarians.

A while back I read that for most people, their highest medical costs come in the last 3 years or so of their life. That's when they tend to be getting really intensive care for serious conditions that they ultimately don't survive. And then I thought about how, for the past several decades, you couldn't go wrong investing in whatever the Boomers were spending $ on, and it dawned on me that a lot of money is going to be going into health care as Boomers hit the phase of life where medical spending typically increases. I invested in a health sciences fund that has done very well. Not at an 'I bought Amazon at $23' level, but still pretty good.

 

[OldShooter]

This may be behind a paywall for some, but here is an interesting article on angel investing, which IMO probably has a higher potential payoff than playing the greater fool game: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/09/technology/angel-investors-startups.html The article implies that its necessary to invest through an intermediary -- not true and a bad idea IMO. Local deals found through local contacts like lawyers and accountants are most likely to pay off.

I have done three or four local deals with small money, up to $50K, and on balance have done quite well. The benefit is that you can really study the merchandise and, often. you may already be acquainted with the principals and/or with other investors. We did flush $50K down the toilet with one restaurant deal, though. Like most investing, the key is to diversify by doing more than one deal. My strategy was one deal at a time.

 

[Qs Laptop]

Moral: The train has left the station on virtually all the stocks identified in these posts. To win big, the OP has to find a stock or two that has not yet been discovered by the greater fools.

Please define "win big". What kind of average annual return over, say 10 years, is winning big?

 

[Blue531]

My suggestions are TSLA, TQQQ and the new ETF soon to come out ARKB.

The potential of Tesla is enormous. They are scaling quickly, innovative and disrupting the car industry.

TQQQ seeks to triple the daily return of the Nasdaq 100 so is very aggressive. The past five year return is 1,236%.

ARKB will be Cathie Wood's newest ETF that will invest in Bitcoin.

I say these are all aggressive enough for a "go big or go home" endeavor.

 

[NW-Bound]

My suggestions are TSLA, TQQQ and the new ETF soon to come out ARKB.

The potential of Tesla is enormous. They are scaling quickly, innovative and disrupting the car industry.

TQQQ seeks to triple the daily return of the Nasdaq 100 so is very aggressive. The past five year return is 1,236%.

ARKB will be Cathie Wood's newest ETF that will invest in Bitcoin.

I say these are all aggressive enough for a "go big or go home" endeavor.

Very true.

These have won big in recent time, so the question now is whether they will continue.

The doubt is enough for a money manager to open a fund that bets against ARKK, the largest fund by Cathie Wood. The Inverse-ARKK fund will move up 1% for each 1% loss by ARKK, and vice versa. It's roughly the same as shorting ARKK.

A lot of fun to bet on either "red" or "black", as they are mutually exclusive

 

[thefist]

raria,
Like Qs Laptop said above, can you define "go big or go home"?
Your odds increase quite a bit if you take a 5-10yr time horizon on this quest. I'd recc buying a subscription to Motley Fool Stock Advisor and/or Rule Breakers. Plenty of ideas in these for outsized growth and a proven track record.
But rather than "go big" on a name or 2, MF recommends buying at least 20-25 stocks and holding long term. That's where the true compounding happens.

And regarding comments out here about having to get in early, and anything mentioned here you're too late... That's all BS. Go look at the FAANG names. There were plenty of multi-bagger buying opps for names such as this over 10 or 20 yr spans. Didn't buy AMZN near the IPO? Well, you only had 15+yrs to try again and capture a large return. Individual stock volatility is high. Be patient (your advantage over institutions) and watch them. 20% drops in any stock is pretty common in ANY year.
A lot of research has been done on picking huge winners. Identify these 20 candidates and buy. Maybe a few can be 10-50 baggers. A few more overachievers. The rest can meander along as average and a couple disappear entirely. But the top 20% will produce the returns. To do something like that with only 4 stocks is just pure luck. Not everything for VC or PE is a grand slam. They spread their bets out. Good luck.

 

[OldShooter]

... A lot of research has been done on picking huge winners. ...

Any of it successful in finding a system? The S&P SPIVA results would tend to say no.

 

[ERD50]

raria,
Like Qs Laptop said above, can you define "go big or go home"?
Your odds increase quite a bit if you take a 5-10yr time horizon on this quest. ...

Really? I'd expect the opposite. You might hit a winner early on, but can you continue that streak? Kind of like roulette, if I got a hit on "7" on my first spin, I'm going home (or to Disney Land)!

... I'd recc buying a subscription to Motley Fool Stock Advisor and/or Rule Breakers. ...

And do they have a documented forward looking track record (not an after the fact one)? I'd be interested in seeing that. These guys used to say that indexing was the way to go. I'm guessing that the money is better (for them, not us), to promote their Advisor letter.

If the hedge funds couldn't beat Buffet/SPY, with their PhDs and fast computers, why should I think a subscriber to a newsletter can do it?

-ERD50

 

[Mountain skier]

Fidelity Technology Fund (a sector fund)

 

[HolaDEA]

Mushroom stocks. Using psilocybin to make medications for mental illness is going to be huge business. I am putting money into ATAI, MNMD, CMPS and SEEL. Still very early. Just buy a little at regular intervals.

 

[kcowan]

If you are serious, try to network into the seed capital space, that is where millions are won and lost. Spread it around among different investment houses. Check out the people.

I did that 20 years ago just during my move to retirement and hit one 30-bagger after it peaked on NASD (35x) and then turned. Others ranged from 12x to zero. Got out after three+ years (too stress-laden decisions). Now all blue chip dividend payers.

 

[jr6035]

KO
VZ
JNJ
IBM
APPL
MCD

Sell Covered calls every month on them.

 

[moneymaker]

This is the way to do it!

5-10% of portfolio and 1 is all it takes.

Artificial intelligence
Genetics
Electric vehicles
Blockchain and crypto
Tele health or TDOC

Just two years ago I started taking more risk with 25% of my portfolio and it’s worth it.
I’ve probably got 70 holdings right now. I made more money last year than the past 15 combined. It only takes 2 or 3 to go nuts and you’ll see the risk to reward is worth it.

ARKK holdings too.

 

[kcowan]

Battery technology: Nano

 

[BeachOrCity]

I did not see all the comments, but the biggest opty's are in the most unloved segments.... Think equities in climate killer fossil fuels. You won't own them for a long time, but the lack of capex and current P/ Cash Flows are pretty incredible. The lack of CAPEX means that supplies will inevitably get constrained and then Cha Ching $$$$....

You can also consider uranium miner plays as that industry has also had no capex and will need to in the next few years or prices will go bonkers as well.

BTU has room to run, PANR is a grand slam or strike out (webinar tomorrow, price will rise inevitably), AR has alot of room to run as well.

The majors don't have huge price leverage, so you have to hunt a bit. OXY is really nice at current pricing as are the canadian producers.

 

[ncbill]

Battery technology: Nano

Solid-state electrolyte batteries.

 

[Luvtoride]

I didn't read through all of the responses, but consider SPAC's that have either identified lucrative target companies to take public or are run by top notch managers who have a knack for investing in great companies. At around $10/ share you might hit on the next big thing or at least companies that will see an increase once the merger is completed. In any case, if they don't end up with a candidate company, you should get your $10 share price back. I've been investing in some of these with a small part of my portfolio and there are some interesting plays in this area.
Good luck!

 

[BeachOrCity]

I didn't read through all of the responses, but consider SPAC's that have either identified lucrative target companies to take public or are run by top notch managers who have a knack for investing in great companies. At around $10/ share you might hit on the next big thing or at least companies that will see an increase once the merger is completed. In any case, if they don't end up with a candidate company, you should get your $10 share price back. I've been investing in some of these with a small part of my portfolio and there are some interesting plays in this area.
Good luck!

Many analysts have big concerns about SPACs in general. One thing to keep in mind is the sponsors of SPAC have a basis so low they win no matter what. See this write up on potential downsides.
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/mos...ampaign=post&utm_medium=email&utm_source=copy

 

[kcowan]

SPACs are just registered shells so companies can avoid the expense and delay of registering themselves. So due diligence of the acquired company is still needed.

 

[OldShooter]

SPACs are just registered shells so companies can avoid the expense and delay of registering themselves. So due diligence of the acquired company is still needed.

True enough, but @BeachOrCity's point still pertains. The promoters have sucked much of the juice out before the acquired company is even identified. If you like paying 5% for front load mutual funds, you'll love seeing SPAC "founders' shares" at 20% of the deal plus good parachutes if the deal bubbles, plus covering all their expenses.

The hucksters are currently out ahead of the regulators on this one.