Is Boeing a Buy Here?

[jazz4cash]

I know that many will think it’s is gruesome to consider after such a tragedy but the market is punishing the stock. I think it will recover in the long run. Just looking for now.

 

[corn18]

It was a strong buy @ 9:31 AM EST @ 369. Not sure about now, though.

 

[Andre1969]

I hate to say it, but I was thinking the same thing. I have some shares of Boeing in an old 401k, from when I used to work for McDonnell-Douglas/Boeing.


It had recently topped out at around $446, but was down to around $422 before this tragedy happened. I was watching it, as it fell in pre-market trading, and though I might rebalance a bit in that 401k, if things got too out of whack. But, it looks like the stock is already starting to recover a bit. So, I'm probably not going to do anything, unless I see a more serious drop...maybe down to 350 or so.

 

[Boho]

I'd like to see how the price went last time this happened between the time of the crash up to a week after the black box was analyzed. I suspect the cause of the current crash was basically the same and I'm guessing the stock was down more after the flight recording was made public than the day of the crash.

 

[Boho]

It seemed high just from this chart. I don't know the reason for it but I'm thinking we'll see a consecutive day drop.

 

[tominboise]

I thought it was a good buy at $108 in 2016, when I bought some. It would have been a good buy at $307 in December, 2018 but I missed it in the hysteria of the moment..


They have orders for 5000 of the planes, not counting the rest of their product offerings. It is a tragedy but I presume they will be around for awhile.

 

[Dash man]

I’m just holding on to the shares I have. Not worth the risk to buy more with all the unknowns, but not worried enough to sell what I have.

 

[OldShooter]

Is Boeing a buy here?

Maybe. Maybe not.

 

[steelyman]

I’m just holding on to the shares I have. Not worth the risk to buy more with all the unknowns, but not worried enough to sell what I have.

Same here, holding shares bought quite a while ago. Why become a market timer now? I think BA will survive and it’s had a run-up. The yield at current level is around 2%.

 

[Andre1969]

Same here, holding shares bought quite a while ago. Why become a market timer now? I think BA will survive and it’s had a run-up. The yield at current level is around 2%.

I left Boeing at the end of 1999, and at that point, I think their stock was around $45/share. That would have been the last time I invested into the 401k. I remember the sum total of my investments plus the company match was roughly $5810 at the time, and I think when I left, my 401k was actually at a slight loss.


But, thankfully, I just left that 401k alone. Just a week or so ago, it was up to a bit over $61,000, although it had taken a trim by Friday. And I know today's going to hurt a little. As time went by, I did move a bit of the funds into a bond fund, and an SP500 fund, but I think the account is still something like 81% in the stock fund.

 

[tominboise]

I left Boeing at the end of 1999, and at that point, I think their stock was around $45/share. That would have been the last time I invested into the 401k. I remember the sum total of my investments plus the company match was roughly $5810 at the time, and I think when I left, my 401k was actually at a slight loss.


But, thankfully, I just left that 401k alone. Just a week or so ago, it was up to a bit over $61,000, although it had taken a trim by Friday. And I know today's going to hurt a little. As time went by, I did move a bit of the funds into a bond fund, and an SP500 fund, but I think the account is still something like 81% in the stock fund.

Funny - I left Boeing in August, 2000. Loved working there - couldn't stand the traffic in Seattle.

 

[Andre1969]

Funny - I left Boeing in August, 2000. Loved working there - couldn't stand the traffic in Seattle.

I worked for their Boeing's Space Systems Division, or whatever they called it, as a NASA contractor in Maryland. When the contract went up for renewal at the end of 1999, Boeing partnered with some small local company, because NASA wanted to give precedence to a "small", "disadvantaged" company (minority-owned, woman-owned, etc). So, Boeing went out and found one. They became the prime contractor, Boeing became the subcontractor to them, and they gave us a generous severance package to move over to the new company.


I have fond memories of working for McDonnell-Douglas, and then Boeing. But, I was young and optimistic in those days, and it was the 90's. I wonder if their culture has changed, just like the rest of the workplace? Or, I'm just getting old and jaded, and impatient? Or a bit of both?

 

[stepford]

I also worked most of my career at Boeing, and accumulated "a few" hundred shares from various bonuses during my time there. With the recent stock run up this now represents "a few" percent of my NW and is, by far, the largest single equity position in my portfolio. I've been loath to sell it as I've enjoyed getting "a few" $K in dividends every year.

In all cases "a few" in the above means less than 5. My question is, how large do you allow a single equity position to get before you rebalance?

 

[Dash man]

I also worked most of my career at Boeing, and accumulated "a few" hundred shares from various bonuses during my time there. With the recent stock run up this now represents "a few" percent of my NW and is, by far, the largest single equity position in my portfolio. I've been loath to sell it as I've enjoyed getting "a few" $K in dividends every year.


In all cases "a few" in the above means less than 5. My question is, how large do you allow a single equity position to get before you rebalance?

That would depend on how many other equity positions you have. In my case, BA is less than 2% of my equities and less than 1% of NW. I love the dividends too!

 

[OldShooter]

... My question is, how large do you allow a single equity position to get before you rebalance?

In the trust business, company rules might limit the number to 10% or 15%. More is considered an "imprudent concentration" of assets.

DW's megabank matched her 401K contributions with stock. IIRC she was over 20% and was restricted from selling until age 55. When she hit 55 we immediately cut it to 15%. YMMV of course.

 

[Montecfo]

That would depend on how many other equity positions you have. In my case, BA is less than 2% of my equities and less than 1% of NW. I love the dividends too!

I do not find it that cheap here, even compared to a few weeks ago.

 

[Dash man]

I do not find it that cheap here, even compared to a few weeks ago.

No one said it was cheap. It’s tripled since I bought it. The question is when do you sell some to diversify. In my case it’s a small percentage of my portfolio, so I have zero intention to sell. If the OP has a much higher percentage, then it may be a consideration, especially in a tax deferred account, which is not my case.

 

[Boho]

Here's what happened after October's crash. After about two weeks it reached the same low as the day of the crash, then it got lower.

 

[Montecfo]

No one said it was cheap. It’s tripled since I bought it. The question is when do you sell some to diversify. In my case it’s a small percentage of my portfolio, so I have zero intention to sell. If the OP has a much higher percentage, then it may be a consideration, especially in a tax deferred account, which is not my case.

Yeah, I was more responding to the premise of the thread. I do not see it as a buy here because I don't see it as particularly cheap. If I was holding the shares, and I am not, I would not be looking to sell here. But I think they could go through a rough patch here that has a chance to create a buying opportunity but for me it would be lower than these levels.

 

[KenZ71]

Haven't investigated yet but thinking about some calls with a year or longer expiry

 

[stephenson]

I think the issue for Boeing relates to the question dangling ... the elephant in the room ... how many more of this flawed aircraft will have issues ... and, if it happens in the US or other non third world nation, how significant will the legal cost and claims be?

Then, there is the potential smoking gun related to the manner in which the aircraft was certified ...

 

[Oz investor]

i hold shares in Air New Zealand and i notice in its reports the profits are being impacted due to ongoing issues with the engines in their 787 Dreamliners .

might i suggest it would be wiser to watch in the short-term , two troubled flagship products may lead to further share price weakness

 

[Montecfo]

I think the issue for Boeing relates to the question dangling ... the elephant in the room ... how many more of this flawed aircraft will have issues ... and, if it happens in the US or other non third world nation, how significant will the legal cost and claims be?

Then, there is the potential smoking gun related to the manner in which the aircraft was certified ...

I agree. My thought was there may be more risk here than what the market is discounting.

 

[Oz investor]

Air New Zealand is 50% own by the New Zealand government so i suspect the NZ will explore legal options on the 787 engine issues , i don't remember if they have any Max 8s

so legal issues are possible for Boeing ( i note one article suggests 8 US citizens died in the latest Max 8 crash )

 

[Boho]

The rebound didn't continue after hours. It's down another .1%.

"The union representing American Airlines flight attendants issued a bulletin Monday telling members they will not be forced to work on Boeing 737 MAX airplanes..."

Earlier articles mentioned that two crashes of the same plane in such a short time frame are unheard of. I think investors didn't take it seriously enough on the first day.

I don't think it even matters if pilot error is a big factor again. The "feature" of this plane that makes it lose altitude and the instruction to turn it off are unusual enough that even Boeing's special safety bulletin after the first accident wasn't enough to educate pilots (my theory since we don't yet know what happened for sure). If it's pilot error again some entity needs to require next-level pilot education of a sort that would probably be unappealing to potential buyers of the plane.