Jim Rogers warns of meltdown

[JDARNELL]

I always called him Mr. Gloom and Doom. Even a non working clock is right twice a day.

 

[Running_Man]

I just stumbled across another, more recent Jim Rogers article - The Worst Stock Market Plunge in Your Lifetime Is Coming: Jim Rogers. While I don't really have an opinion about his prediction skills, this article makes me wonder about his credibility.

In it he states That didn't sound right to me, so I did a little research. I found this document - https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common...tentGUID=4ecfa978-d0bb-4924-92c8-628ff9bfe12d. I couldn't figure out who to make it display without clicking on it, but it's basically a chart that shows all the bull and bear markets since 1929, and how long they lasted. Many/most bear markets came along after 12+ years of a bull. It took me less time to look that up than it did to type this post. Why didn't he look it up before making such an obviously wrong statement? And why didn't the "journalist" that posted the story do the 30 seconds of research needed to refute that point before posting it out there? I know it's just click bait, but my 12 y.o. DGD would flunk her class if she did such a poor job. And if he really wants to be taken seriously he should get his facts straight before opening his mouth.

That chart is a joke, seriously 1937 - 1938 is not considered a bear market? in 12 months the market fell 49%. Of course Rogers is describing a terrible bear market as a drop of 50% or more and that chart has a drop of 49% as being a bull market so it could be Rogers just needs better education on how a 49% drop is actually just a bull market move. 1981-1982 a 25% drop - and that 25% drop in prices came in an inflationary environment --1987 a 34% drop are considered portions of a bull market?

The truth is there were bear markets (drops of 20%+ or more) in 1956,1961, 1968, 1973,1976, 1981, 1987, 1990, 2000, 2007. to get 12 + years you have to go back to 1942 to the 1956 bear, which came after the 1929 - 1942, which I guess in your chart was a bull market move from 1932, but that was after the end of the great depression and when WWII began to be seen as being winnable for the Allies.

 

[harley]

That chart is a joke, seriously 1937 - 1938 is not considered a bear market? in 12 months the market fell 49%. Well if you consider a 49% drop just part of an ongoing bull in order to average 12+ years. 1981-1982 a 25% drop - and that 25% drop in prices came in an inflationary environment --1987 a 34% drop are considered portions of a bull market?

The truth is there were bear markets (drops of 20%+ or more) in 1956,1961, 1968, 1973,1976, 1981, 1987, 1990, 2000, 2007.

Well, I know I'm not supposed to trust stuff I read on the internet. I don't really follow market rises and falls, I just stay invested for the most part. If the chart is a joke, and according to the information you quoted it sounds as if it is, then I apologize for posting incorrect information. And now that I check my source, I see it is a financial advisor firm who have reason to make the stock market sound less scary to potential clients. So, my bad.

I did look up the definition of a bear market, and I see it includes a length of time, 60 days or more. Anything less than that is considered a correction. I looked up a list of bear markets on https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500corrbeartables.pdf, and some of the ones you listed are considered bears, and others are considered corrections. There are probably enough of them in there to invalidate my issue with Jim Rogers' statement about 10 years being a long time between bears, so I'll apologize to him next time I see him.


Interestingly, the first definition I saw after googling "bear market" was some dictionary definition stating - "a market in which prices are falling, encouraging selling". It seems to me that should imply the opposite. If prices are falling shouldn't you be holding or considering buying?

 

[NW-Bound]

... Interestingly, the first definition I saw after googling "bear market" was some dictionary definition stating - "a market in which prices are falling, encouraging selling". It seems to me that should imply the opposite. If prices are falling shouldn't you be holding or considering buying?

Yes. But people always hold out, waiting for the "true bottom".

 

[flintnational]

I am a believer

20 years ago when I heard Jim make similar comments I sold all my stocks, invested in gold, bought a bow tie and moved to Asia. Any day now I am sure he will be right and I will be vindicated! (I hope so because I am really getting tired of rice and I am running low on gold.)

 

[Running_Man]

20 years ago when I heard Jim make similar comments I sold all my stocks, invested in gold, bought a bow tie and moved to Asia. Any day now I am sure he will be right and I will be vindicated! (I hope so because I am really getting tired of rice and I am running low on gold.)

20 years ago in 1998 he created a commodity index (RICI)and recommended investing in it because it is not cap weighted by commodity and by 2008 he was up 380 percent versus the S&P 500 index gain of 38%. After 2008 it collapsed with the markets and never recovered with the declining prices in commodities continuing through to this year. Really is a unique and well designed index, of all the commodity indexes it is one of the only ones that does not change it's components percentage - it is re balanced monthly -- as prices change.
In 2007 he stated that US real estate prices would crash and he sold all his stock holdings. So while he has a lot of predictions that do not pan out, I think he does OK for himself, probably better prior to 2008.

 

[flintnational]

^^^I think he also made a great deal of money with currency trades prior to the commodity index and is clearly a wealthy guy. And, when I can catch him on TV I enjoy listening. (not sure why). But he is a perma-bear. Accordingly, I only value this thread for its entertainment value.

 

[Dtail]

^^^i think he also made a great deal of money with currency trades prior to the commodity index and is clearly a wealthy guy. And, when i can catch him on tv i enjoy listening. (not sure why). But he is a perma-bear. accordingly, i only value this thread for its entertainment value.

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