Latest Inflation Numbers and Discussion

[Koolau]

Like many things, one man's waste, fraud and abuse is another man's paycheck. And the guys getting the paychecks (who are more concentrated and more motivated) are going to fight harder than the good governance guys will.

I'm gonna stop here before I get in trouble for mentioning subjects that could be interpreted as political. I think the issue is all but intractable. 'Nuff said.

 

[NW-Bound]

Like many things, one man's waste, fraud and abuse is another man's paycheck. And the guys getting the paychecks (who are more concentrated and more motivated) are going to fight harder than the good governance guys will.

Amen.

 

[NW-Bound]

I have a few items from Amazon in a saved list. These are various items that I thought about buying, but have not pulled the trigger because I am not yet ready for them; don't want to clutter up my house and yard further until I really need them.

Recently when I logged in to Amazon, I saw notices that several items have had the price reduced. Whoa. The prices used to go up, now some go down. That's new.

And in addition, I don't pay for Prime membership, so always opt for free shipping which means as much as 4-5 days for delivery. Now, Amazon consistently delivers in the 2nd day after the order, which is amazingly fast. My brother who has Prime membership said he ordered in the morning, and received it the same afternoon. I think Amazon has a warehouse near his home, but still...

I think Amazon sales are down, and more employees are twiddling thumbs. I thought I read about a layoff by Amazon recently.

What do the above mean? I suspect a recession is developing, which also tames inflation. Keep your belt tightened. Don't say "Wh***".

 

[USGrant1962]

...
I think Amazon sales are down, and more employees are twiddling thumbs. I thought I read about a layoff by Amazon recently.
....

The Amazon layoffs in the news were in AWS (Amazon Web Services, i.e., cloud services) and their storefronts, not the core e-commerce operations.

 

[JoeWras]

What about supply? We are short labor, but have lots of people on sidelines. Supply chain has improved, but could it get better?

It would be interesting to see a concerted effort to improve this. Here are some ideas:

What can be done to streamline trucking, and add more drivers? Maybe find a way to adjust hours worked on a temporary basis.

The trucking industry is seriously trying to encourage women to apply. I drive by a truck driving school and frequently the student drivers I encounter on the road are women. As a plus, they don't end up in jail as often so there are more ladies available for the job which has strict background requirements.

Many (most?) new semi trucks have automatic transmissions. Yes, heresy! Kids (no matter their gender) don't even understand what a manual is. That's been a huge roadblock.

Which reminds me... I need to take up my niece's husband's offer to drive his rig some day. Drove plenty of manuals, but not the semi-behemoth.

 

[street]

I have a few items from Amazon in a saved list. These are various items that I thought about buying, but have not pulled the trigger because I am not yet ready for them; don't want to clutter up my house and yard further until I really need them.

Recently when I logged in to Amazon, I saw notices that several items have had the price reduced. Whoa. The prices used to go up, now some go down. That's new.

And in addition, I don't pay for Prime membership, so always opt for free shipping which means as much as 4-5 days for delivery. Now, Amazon consistently delivers in the 2nd day after the order, which is amazingly fast. My brother who has Prime membership said he ordered in the morning, and received it the same afternoon. I think Amazon has a warehouse near his home, but still...

I think Amazon sales are down, and more employees are twiddling thumbs. I thought I read about a layoff by Amazon recently.

What do the above mean? I suspect a recession is developing, which also tames inflation. Keep your belt tightened. Don't say "Wh***".

I believe that deflation has started to some degree. I see inflation getting better as 2023 goes on and as the busy part of the year is yet to really begin.

The consumer confidence, employment, rate hikes and overall economy is ready to move on from all these negative times we have had. Just my 2¢.

 

[Markola]

Many (most?) new semi trucks have automatic transmissions. Yes, heresy! Kids (no matter their gender) don't even understand what a manual is. That's been a huge roadblock.

A tangent: A few years ago, I drove my 2006 SAAB to an event, handed the key to the valet and went inside. Later, I noticed it was still where I left it. You guessed it. The attendants didn’t know how to drive a stick.

 

[Mr._Graybeard]

The trucking industry is seriously trying to encourage women to apply. I drive by a truck driving school and frequently the student drivers I encounter on the road are women. As a plus, they don't end up in jail as often so there are more ladies available for the job which has strict background requirements.

Many (most?) new semi trucks have automatic transmissions. Yes, heresy! Kids (no matter their gender) don't even understand what a manual is. That's been a huge roadblock.

Which reminds me... I need to take up my niece's husband's offer to drive his rig some day. Drove plenty of manuals, but not the semi-behemoth.

The trucking industry has a serious retention problem. According to Mayor Pete, 300,000 people leave trucking every year. Why is that? Hm. I think that history has shown that high turnover in a labor market is the result of poor working conditions and/or poor pay. https://landline.media/buttigieg-300000-truckers-leave-industry-every-year/

I like to watch a YouTuber who publishes under the handle Trucking Answers. Here's one of his recent posts on an apprenticeship program that was supposed to bring young people into trucking. Some of the hours they would commit to the program would be unpaid, according to TA.

 

[GenXguy]

Amazon prices have always fluctuated up and down. Various times, I've found something to purchase, but by the time I got around to it, the price would go up, then I might check a few more times in the days to follow, and it would go back down again. But definitely, the trend I'm still seeing is prices going UP!

Egg prices fell, but gas prices are rising again (very high) it seems along with everything else like homeowner's insurance that everyone was talking about in another thread. I'm still seeing high inflation, definitely no deflation. I think we're officially around 6% inflation year over year which is 300% of what it should be, and I've always seen higher inflation in what I spend money on than the government figures indicate. We would need 0% inflation for quite a few years to make up for the skyrocketing inflation over the last few years.

 

[JoeWras]

The trucking industry has a serious retention problem. According to Mayor Pete, 300,000 people leave trucking every year. Why is that? Hm. I think that history has shown that high turnover in a labor market is the result of poor working conditions and/or poor pay.

Oh yeah, it is a complete mess. My "nephew in law (NIL)" has stories. Sometimes, he is a NIL in a different way though. He got tired of the stuff that the youtuber you referenced talked about, so he went independent. It's a real problem, though. Getting $3k repair bills is common. Then, there was the time he got stiffed on a payment by a bad shipping boss. That set him back $30k, and of course, the bad guy has all kinds of legal blocks, LLCs, etc. that have resulted in him disappearing and little chance to collect. My NIL put way too much trust in this shipping boss, and got hosed. He was a bit of a NIL in his thinking by trusting way beyond when he shouldn't ("check is in the mail, please carry another load"). If you look online about this problem, it is epidemic among Independents. They routinely get hosed.

Independent or Corporate, trucking as a job is tough. And it is ultimately going to cost us all.

 

[jurgs01]

I kinda enjoy the fact that I don’t worry about getting lice when I have my hair cut. The licenses were put into place for good reasons.

I'm sure without the benefit of government licensing, there would only be one barber, Licey McLicerson, and we would all be forced to go there [emoji1787]

 

[Chuckanut]

The Amazon layoffs in the news were in AWS (Amazon Web Services, i.e., cloud services) and their storefronts, not the core e-commerce operations.

Amazon computer services are not doing so well. Alexa has been a disappointment. People are not using the devices to buy more stuff. It seems that people who ask Alexa what today's weather will be usually don't follow up by ordering an umbrella.

 

[Chuckanut]

Oh yeah, it is a complete mess. My "nephew in law (NIL)" has stories. Sometimes, he is a NIL in a different way though. He got tired of the stuff that the youtuber you referenced talked about, so he went independent. It's a real problem, though. Getting $3k repair bills is common. Then, there was the time he got stiffed on a payment by a bad shipping boss. That set him back $30k, and of course, the bad guy has all kinds of legal blocks, LLCs, etc. that have resulted in him disappearing and little chance to collect. My NIL put way too much trust in this shipping boss, and got hosed. He was a bit of a NIL in his thinking by trusting way beyond when he shouldn't ("check is in the mail, please carry another load"). If you look online about this problem, it is epidemic among Independents. They routinely get hosed.

Independent or Corporate, trucking as a job is tough. And it is ultimately going to cost us all.

Where are the self-driving trucks that will fill the highways at night when the rest of us are off the roads, and therefore cut down on truck traffic in the day?

 

[Gumby]

A tangent: A few years ago, I drove my 2006 SAAB to an event, handed the key to the valet and went inside. Later, I noticed it was still where I left it. You guessed it. The attendants didn’t know how to drive a stick.

Two years ago, the young valet at my hotel could not drive a stick, so I had him sit in the passenger seat and direct me to the proper parking spot, and then walked back with him. Then I had to go get it myself when I left. (I still gave him a tip though).

 

[yhoomajor]

Amazon prices have always fluctuated up and down. Various times, I've found something to purchase, but by the time I got around to it, the price would go up, then I might check a few more times in the days to follow, and it would go back down again. But definitely, the trend I'm still seeing is prices going UP!

Egg prices fell, but gas prices are rising again (very high) it seems along with everything else like homeowner's insurance that everyone was talking about in another thread. I'm still seeing high inflation, definitely no deflation. I think we're officially around 6% inflation year over year which is 300% of what it should be, and I've always seen higher inflation in what I spend money on than the government figures indicate. We would need 0% inflation for quite a few years to make up for the skyrocketing inflation over the last few years.

Agree. Anyone who thinks disinflation is about to happen will change their mind when they take their car to car mechanic for a repair.

Oh and those who think they're the cool-trendy kind and can just switch to EV cars. That space is getting worse by the month.

https://www.reuters.com/business/au...ises-prices-electric-f-150-pickup-2023-03-30/

Ford raises F-150 Lightning prices again to battle high costs.
The carmaker said it raised the starting price of the Lariat Standard model to $75,974 from $74,474 and the Platinum range to $98,074 from $96,874 "in response to current material costs, market factors, and supply chain constraints."

"Ahead of the next wave of commercial order banks opening mid-April, Ford is adjusting the price of the F-150 Lightning Pro MSRP from $55,974 to $59,974". BTW - their initial price on this model was below $40k.

So much for disinflation.

 

[explanade]

Where are the self-driving trucks that will fill the highways at night when the rest of us are off the roads, and therefore cut down on truck traffic in the day?

They're working on them.

Maybe they get here before self-driving passenger cars.

For long-haul trips, it shouldn't be as challenging as navigating through busy cities during the day.

 

[pb4uski]

There was an interesting piece on self driving trucks on 60 Minutes.

 

[Chuckanut]

They're working on them.

Maybe they get here before self-driving passenger cars.

For long-haul trips, it shouldn't be as challenging as navigating through busy cities during the day.

There is a truck depot in a rural area about 20 miles east of metropolis I live in. It's off a major interstate. It seems to me that is the kind of place a self driving truck might be able to reliably find, and then park the rig with no intervention. Then a human driver can slip into the cab and do that last 20 miles past the work zones, through the detours, and into the very busy city traffic. At the end of the day the driver goes home like everybody else. Later that evening the self driving truck leaves the depot is back on the road going to the next truck depot outside another city.

Back on topic...

I continue to wonder what will happen to prices. While the rate of increase is dropping, price increases are still to high for the long term. At 4% per year, the cost of a loaf of bread doubles every 18 years. Not so good unless longer term interest rates can go to 5% and stay there. Meanwhile taxes continue to go up. Taxes are turning out to be one of the single biggest sources of inflation for many of us.

 

[Gumby]

Federal income tax brackets are indexed to inflation. State income tax depends on the state. My property tax bill likely will go up a shade over 1% for the coming year. It's the largest single item in my budget, but it's not inflating all that fast.

 

[harley]

I kinda enjoy the fact that I don’t worry about getting lice when I have my hair cut. The licenses were put into place for good reasons.

You have a much more optimistic view of gov't benevolence than I do. I don't have much of a problem with needing a license to cut hair or paint fingernails or pluck eyebrows, but the 600-1200+ hours of training/experience is pure protectionism. You can learn to apply fake fingernails or run a #2 shaver over someone's head in a few hours, and after that the need to maintain the license would be all that was necessary to keep the lice at bay. It's not people with butchered hair that are lobbying for the regulations, it's the existing businesses trying to keep new competition at bay.

A number of states (including FL and AZ) have recently decreased the requirements to have a license in some of these fields, and others like VA have allowed experience gained in other states to fill the requirements. These are good changes, allowing people to work in fields without overwhelming regulatory rules to overcome. It will help the employment/small business arena in the long run, without a lice pandemic (I hope).

 

[Montecfo]

Agree. Anyone who thinks disinflation is about to happen will change their mind when they take their car to car mechanic for a repair....



So much for disinflation.

We have been experiencing disinflation, meaning a reduction in the rate of inflation, for months.

Used car prices have actually been declining, meaning they have been deflating.

Now, I do not doubt that new vehicles relying on new tech could be rising rapidly. But it is kind of hard to tell when something is so new. What is the comparable vehicle to compare it to for example?

But that does not characterize the overall market for vehicles and repairs.

 

[JoeWras]

Used car prices have actually been declining, meaning they have been deflating.

Just don't try to buy a car people want. The used car market for desirable models has actually drifted up - a consequence of tax rebate season is one theory.

I know, I was there.

The CPI numbers will show an aggregate drop because it is a big market that includes a lot more than the reference below. The fact is, however, there are still 25% less used cars up for sale right now versus end of 2019.

In short, it isn't dropping as fast as we hope. And one of the big sources of this friction is Toyota. I don't know what the hell is up with them, but they gotta start making some cars. Somebody needs to tell them the pandemic is over. Sorry for the Renesas mess, but get a second source, dudes!

(Courtesy https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-trends/)

 

[Koolau]

Two years ago, the young valet at my hotel could not drive a stick, so I had him sit in the passenger seat and direct me to the proper parking spot, and then walked back with him. Then I had to go get it myself when I left. (I still gave him a tip though).

Ahhhh! And therein lies the problem. No cost - no improvement. Still, a nice gesture.

 

[HawkOwl]

You have a much more optimistic view of gov't benevolence than I do. I don't have much of a problem with needing a license to cut hair or paint fingernails or pluck eyebrows, but the 600-1200+ hours of training/experience is pure protectionism. You can learn to apply fake fingernails or run a #2 shaver over someone's head in a few hours, and after that the need to maintain the license would be all that was necessary to keep the lice at bay. It's not people with butchered hair that are lobbying for the regulations, it's the existing businesses trying to keep new competition at bay.

A number of states (including FL and AZ) have recently decreased the requirements to have a license in some of these fields, and others like VA have allowed experience gained in other states to fill the requirements. These are good changes, allowing people to work in fields without overwhelming regulatory rules to overcome. It will help the employment/small business arena in the long run, without a lice pandemic (I hope).

I wonder how much of a factor “skin in the game” plays here. If you have invested time and money in obtaining a professional license, do you value it more and avoid putting it at risk?

The examples you chose- hair styling and false fingernail application- have minimal downside. On the other hand, “reform” in these areas isn’t likely to save our economy either.

I would be very opposed to relaxing oversight of most areas- everything from pediatric oncology to auto brake service to the guy driving a semi next to me on the interstate. Regulation and training have their place. Just ask the investors in Silicone Valley Bank.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Just don't try to buy a car people want. The used car market for desirable models has actually drifted up - a consequence of tax rebate season is one theory.

I know, I was there.

The CPI numbers will show an aggregate drop because it is a big market that includes a lot more than the reference below. The fact is, however, there are still 25% less used cars up for sale right now versus end of 2019.

In short, it isn't dropping as fast as we hope. And one of the big sources of this friction is Toyota. I don't know what the hell is up with them, but they gotta start making some cars. Somebody needs to tell them the pandemic is over. Sorry for the Renesas mess, but get a second source, dudes!

(Courtesy https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-trends/)

Vroom just sent me an unsolicited "updated" offer for the Ford Maverick I bought a year ago, more than what I bought it for (new). And that is a low-ball offer.