Latest Inflation Numbers and Discussion

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2% inflation rate is under control (if population/productivity is growing by that much.)

6% inflation is NOT under control. Trying to put some temporary "trend" spin on this is just that.. a spin. Data is data.

For sure, I've been seeing a lot more inflation than that in real world price increases.

But even the 6% figure is still 300% of what the Fed targets inflation for PCE.

Wage growth doesn't help many of us who are about to stop earning earning wages when we retire and have our greatly devalued stash $ to live on after a few years of skyrocketing inflation and counting. Instead, the wage growth feeds inflation.
 
6% doesn't appear to be close to reality, at least based on what we've paid for the past year and what we've seen in cost increases so far in 2023.

My experience as well, though the "basket of goods" is very important when it comes to individual inflation experience. If anything, I would say "OUR" inflation locally has recently taken off.

I wonder if that is because Costco (where we buy most things) was not passing on inflation until THEY experienced it. It's common when inflation rears it head for retailers to boost prices even if their wholesale costs have not yet increased. Maybe Costco held back as long as possible. In any case, last month or two has been something to see, inflation wise. YMMV
 
Yes, inflation for our own particular basket of goods may differ from the CPI based inflation rate. Sadly, however, I must discount unquantifiable and unverifiable observations that we (even me) "are paying a lot more than we used to pay." Does any of us know precisely how much the price rose for us, for precisely which goods, and over precisely what period? Do we notice things where the price hasn't risen at all or has only marginally increased or maybe has even gone down? I sure don't notice them or measure them. The only things that attract my attention are the most outrageous increases, like eggs until recently.

So I am forced to rely on the BLS to gather actual, measurable, verifiable data, weight it in some sensible fashion, and create the CPI number. I can argue about some of the methodology, but at least BLS takes a stab at objective analysis of real data rather than relying on personal anecdote.

And, really, it is that CPI number that affects me the most, because that's how the COLA on my social security is set, as well as the COLA on the young wife's and my pensions. It determines the interest rate on my I bonds. And probably many other things that don't pop into my mind right now. So I'll stick with it.
 
The BLS data was never intended to provide a real time view of inflation. Looking at the rolling 12 month data gives us a greater sense of the trend. It definitely shows CPI is still high, down substantially from its ‘22 peak and definitely in a downtrend. The graph is from BLS here

That is a very favorable trend downward. There is hope!

Thanks for providing the various data for us all!! :cool: :cool:
 
Yes, inflation for our own particular basket of goods may differ from the CPI based inflation rate. Sadly, however, I must discount unquantifiable and unverifiable observations that we (even me) "are paying a lot more than we used to pay." Does any of us know precisely how much the price rose for us, for precisely which goods, and over precisely what period? Do we notice things where the price hasn't risen at all or has only marginally increased or maybe has even gone down? I sure don't notice them or measure them. The only things that attract my attention are the most outrageous increases, like eggs until recently.

So I am forced to rely on the BLS to gather actual, measurable, verifiable data, weight it in some sensible fashion, and create the CPI number. I can argue about some of the methodology, but at least BLS takes a stab at objective analysis of real data rather than relying on personal anecdote.

And, really, it is that CPI number that affects me the most, because that's how the COLA on my social security is set, as well as the COLA on the young wife's and my pensions. It determines the interest rate on my I bonds. And probably many other things that don't pop into my mind right now. So I'll stick with it.

Concur with all that. I have always concentrated on the big 3. Housing, transpo and food. Housing has stayed the same minus a slight rise in prop tax. Transpo has actually gone down for my diesel vehicle. Food is a # I can play with. Ex: eggs. I can do oatmeal, english muffins, banana shakes, power bars. I can also eat in more often and eat out less. I can choose no $ activities such as hiking vice some other activity that costs $. DW and I (my guess) have probably 10-20% variable in our dicretionary minimum spending. We just have to clean up a few leaks. Of course we don't want to see prices rise but we have choices and replacements.
 
I don’t worry about our personal inflation. If our spending does not exceed our available spending cash, I’m happy. We way underspent once Covid started and it will take a while to catch up.

In the meantime I track our net worth against CPI-U inflation since end of 1999. For me if our net worth keeps up with inflation we are ahead of the game. We are OK with ultimately spending down our portfolio.

Until 2022 our net worth was way ahead of inflation (interestingly it fell behind in 2008 but regained again early in 2011). So the 2022 high inflation plus market sell offs set us back quite a bit, but we are still ahead, just much more moderately so.
 
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I wasn't concerned so much with eggs since that's a special case, but mostly concerned about some of these big ticket expenses I have coming that will take a big chunk of my budget - rebuilding deck, new roof, new HVAC, new flooring, and car (to name just a few) where costs are really up, and ongoing high property taxes and homeowner's insurance going up much at a much faster clip than 6%. Of course the usual grocery bills, utility bills, etc. are all up considerably also.

And at the same time all those expenses and more went up, my stash lost dollars, which are also worth less. I've mentioned it elsewhere, but this is causing me to delay retirement multiple years. They really need to get inflation under control and back to the target, but of course, high prices are here to stay.
 
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I don't get it. It sounds like the CEO did everything on the up and up, or at least tried to, and his violation was because he got bad legal advice. I'm surprised that the SEC would come down hard on him for what you described and wonder it there were other things in the mix.

I hope that he at least fired the lawyers in the legal department who gave him bad advice before he resigned. :LOL:

He wasn't a CEO but still a high ranking employee. He did sue however, but didn't get job back. May have settled out of court, as he never returned to workforce again AFAIK.
 
From CNBC this morning

The producer price index fell 0.1% for February, below the estimate for a 0.3% increase.
Retail sales declined 0.4% for the month, in line with expectations and pulled lower by drops in auto sales as well as bar and restaurant receipts.
Finally, the Empire State Manufacturing survey for March, a gauge of activity in the New York region, posted a -24.6 reading, down 19 points from a month ago.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/15/ppi-february-2023-.html
 
I don’t worry about our personal inflation. If our spending does not exceed our available spending cash, I’m happy. We way underspent once Covid started and it will take a while to catch up.

In the meantime I track our net worth against CPI-U inflation ......

Until 2022 our net worth was way ahead of inflation (interestingly it fell behind in 2008 but regained again early in 2011). So the 2022 high inflation plus market sell offs set us back quite a bit, but we are still ahead, just much more moderately so.

I also track our net worth, and noticed the large drop compared to inflation. I call it Purchasing Power Post Retirement.
It really shows the way inflation can be a retirement killer.
 
The PPI negative number will probably let the Fed pause interest rate hikes after 1 more .25 hike.
This is good for the stock market.
Maybe we are seeing the Terminal Fed rate after 1 more hike.
 
I also track our net worth, and noticed the large drop compared to inflation. I call it Purchasing Power Post Retirement.
It really shows the way inflation can be a retirement killer.

Well it certainly can. Therefore I am grateful we went through a long period of low inflation and strong bull market, because we are definitely giving a lot back now.
 
I also track our net worth, and noticed the large drop compared to inflation. I call it Purchasing Power Post Retirement.
It really shows the way inflation can be a retirement killer.


I still think I am running out of time faster than running out of money.
 
I also track our net worth, and noticed the large drop compared to inflation. I call it Purchasing Power Post Retirement.
It really shows the way inflation can be a retirement killer.
I hear you. I'm feeling that pain.
 
Well it certainly can. Therefore I am grateful we went through a long period of low inflation and strong bull market, because we are definitely giving a lot back now.
That's for sure. Build up the balance and now watching it drop. I realize it's all in the economic cycles, will be nice when the slope of the curve goes up instead of down. Is that slope flattening? The Fed hopes for that with a subsequent change upward by a little (that 2% target). Soft landing vs hard bottoming out of the slope turning more downward and stronger recession.
 
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European Central Bank increases rates by 0.50%.

They have their eyes on the goal.

I wonder what The Fed will do?

Yahoo Finance chatter is about Credit Suisse problems today. Worried to death about CS.

Good grief!! CS stock has been falling in a straight line for the last 2 years, beginning a year before the Fed tightening.

The US banks troubles were caused by poor decisions, incompetence, and maybe outright chicanery.

I am hoping for a 0.25% Fed hike. Stay the course.
 
I would not be surprised by zero or by 25bp. My guess is they go 25bp and then suggest they will wait and watch the impact of the massive rate hikes over the past year.

The Fed rhetoric will be most important element.
 
......
Yahoo Finance chatter is about Credit Suisse problems today. Worried to death about CS.

Good grief!! CS stock has been falling in a straight line for the last 2 years, beginning a year before the Fed tightening.

The US banks troubles were caused by poor decisions, incompetence, and maybe outright chicanery.

.....

I avoided buying Credit Suisse bonds, months ago, even though they were paying more than anyone else.

If I want to risk that part of my money, I'll just buy stocks.
 
I also track our net worth, and noticed the large drop compared to inflation. I call it Purchasing Power Post Retirement.
It really shows the way inflation can be a retirement killer.

Yes, and at the same time that the stock portion of the Port. is tanking. Isn't that what we used to call Stagflation? Not fun, especially to anyone on the edge. I give thanks often that I've been blessed with more than I need, heh, heh, at least so far:(
 
Yes, and at the same time that the stock portion of the Port. is tanking. Isn't that what we used to call Stagflation? Not fun, especially to anyone on the edge. I give thanks often that I've been blessed with more than I need, heh, heh, at least so far:(

At least we know the DOW and S&P won't go to zero, but some of your stocks can....:D
 
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