Latest Inflation Numbers and Discussion

[Mr. Tightwad]

I don't know what the price of gas is, it's been 5 years since I had to buy it.

 

[Mulligan]

I'm not trying to analyze why... just observing the data. With respect to your thoughts that "gov't policy towards the US fossil fuel industry is hurting our economy", WADR the economy seems to be doing just fine and at this juncture taming inflation (the topic of this thread) is a higher priority since economic growth is still good.

PB, your chart confirmed my suspicions. But gas prices will always be a hot topic, because it is so noticeable with gas prices visibly posted everywhere and volatile. Plus there is no personal satisfaction from purchasing gas. Its just a needed basic essential coming out of the wallet. But for me, only personally, gas on a consumption cost basis is relatively cheaper for me now as I have a utility vehicle that averages 25 mpg, instead of 15 mpg I used to get with gas guzzling Trailblazers and Z28s even further back in the day. But dont get me wrong, I certainly wish it was $2.50 a gallon.

 

[Koolau]

Did you fail spelling?

Nope. President Reagan called it gummint and that's good enough for me though YMMV.

 

[Koolau]

If you look at the trend from 1994 to 2001 then despite significant volatility along the way, the price of gas today isn't particularly unusually high.

I assume that's probably true, but it could be a lot lower if gummint wanted it to be. I'll leave it at that. I've had my bacon for today.

 

[Koolau]

The price of gasoline is volatile and many differing conclusions can be drawn depending on what period is being measured. This volatility is the reason it is excluded from “core inflation” measures.

Here’s a chart of the average price since before the GFC of ‘08

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Interesting chart, but I guess we shouldn't talk about those differing conclusions. I think it's back up to $5 in Honolulu, though I haven't been there for a couple of months, now. That means $5.25 or more on neighbor Islands. That's devastating for people who live Ewa Oahu and must drive 25 miles to w*rk one way (in heavy traffic.)



Guess I was a quarter high. Here's what's happening in the Islands as we speak.


https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=HI


Heh, heh, YMMV.

 

[GenXguy]

Interesting chart, but I guess we shouldn't talk about those differing conclusions. I think it's back up to $5 in Honolulu, though I haven't been there for a couple of months, now. That means $5.25 or more on neighbor Islands. That's devastating for people who live Ewa Oahu and must drive 25 miles to w*rk one way (in heavy traffic.)

Guess I was a quarter high. Here's what's happening in the Islands as we speak.

https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=HI

Heh, heh, YMMV.

Yikes. My mileage varies, but it's still high. But $5 or $5.25 for gas, seems like that would drive up inflation even more. I think $4.14/g is too high already - with a big chunk going to the state's high gas taxes. There's more of that "gummint" for you.

 

[eytonxav]

I'm not trying to analyze why... just observing the data. With respect to your thoughts that "gov't policy towards the US fossil fuel industry is hurting our economy", WADR the economy seems to be doing just fine and at this juncture taming inflation (the topic of this thread) is a higher priority since economic growth is still good.

WADR - While the stock market is doing fine, I do not see how the economy is doing fine, it's anemic and is expected to go down from Q2 #s according to some sources. But back to my original point, I see gas/fossil fuel prices increasing locally, and that is a personal inflation element that many are getting hit with, especially those who need their car to drive to work regardless of how one views the key causes. Also, fossil fuel costs have a cascading effect on many parts of the economy. That said, agree that taming inflation is the priority and I anticipate we will see another increase or two at some point and that inflation will uptick as well.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

Yikes. My mileage varies, but it's still high. But $5 or $5.25 for gas, seems like that would drive up inflation even more. I think $4.14/g is too high already - with a big chunk going to the state's high gas taxes. There's more of that "gummint" for you.

If we had to row it over in a punt some 2000 miles from California where the prices are high to start with to our local gas stations, then we would be paying that too. Not sure how the powers that be have a lot of control over that. Laying a pipeline accross would be cost prohibitive too I think.

 

[GenXguy]

If we had to row it over in a punt some 2000 miles from California where the prices are high to start with to our local gas stations, then we would be paying that too. Not sure how the powers that be have a lot of control over that. Laying a pipeline accross would be cost prohibitive too I think.

When I said gummint above, that was in reference to the last words from the previous statement "high gas taxes".

 

[MichaelB]

Inflation is a broad increase in the price levels for goods and services across the economy. Gasoline prices are examples, although their volatility is so high they don’t make good examples. There is a thread to discuss such things, here.


This thread is to discuss inflationary trends. Why not continue the discussion of gasoline prices there and let this thread stay focused on the broader topic?

 

[Chuckanut]

In my mind true overall inflation requires the money supply rises faster than the rate of productivity over time. That’s very Econ 101, I know. But, it makes sense to me.

We recently had an healthy increase in assorted taxes. This increase caused me to drop membership in a wine club. The money for the taxes has to come from somewhere. So now there is less demand for expensive wines in my community. While my contribution to that is small, it adds up when others also spend less on something else. IOW, they should offset each other in terms of inflation, IMO.

Interestingly the wine store owner whose club I left is also a state rep who voted for the various tax increases.

 

[Car-Guy]

I was looking for a new vehicle (again) this weekend. About 6+ months ago what I wanted was impossible to find. Everything was on backorder. Today there are plenty to pick from although prices are up significantly and they don't want to deal. What I bought for ~80k in 2021 is now in the 100 to 110k range. Sure seems inflationary to me. An extra 20 to 30k isn't going to break me, but I think I'll wait until early next year to see how it goes with car prices "or" with dealers willing to negotiate.

 

[Gumby]

I was looking for a new vehicle (again) this weekend. About 6+ months ago what I wanted was impossible to find. Everything was on backorder. Today there are plenty to pick from although prices are up significantly and they don't want to deal. What I bought for ~80k in 2021 is now in the 100 to 110k range. Sure seems inflationary to me. An extra 20 to 30k isn't going to break me, but I think I'll wait until early next year to see how it goes with car prices "or" with dealers willing to negotiate.

The cure for high prices is high prices. When people stop buying due to price, then it will drop. I would shop for a new car in late December, when they're staring at a full lot and end of year numbers are due.

 

[Car-Guy]

That is sort of my plan... December/January. New models will be out and filling the lots, then maybe I can pickup this years model at a discount.

Especially since the manufacture had been saying this would be the last year for the particular model I wanted. Then a few weeks ago they said, OMY.

 

[explanade]

I don't know if it's taken effect yet but Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to cut OPEC production.

That's been driving oil prices up.

There was also a belief that China economy was back on track but they're really not.

 

[eytonxav]

That is sort of my plan... December/January. New models will be out and filling the lots, then maybe I can pickup this years model at a discount.

Especially since the manufacture had been saying this would be the last year for the particular model I wanted. Then a few weeks ago they said, OMY.

Back in June had to take my Audi in for its annual service. The dealership's internet sales manager came after me to trade in for a newer vehicle. I asked her what see had in mind, but told her I doubt you could make me a deal that I would seriously consider. She came back with some unbelievable numbers that I almost went for, but my car is low mileage and in great shape so I passed. For a long time this dealership had no cars and now they are trying clear their full lot for new models, so depending on the manufacturers model timing the summer can also be a good time to buy. Car-Guy, you ready to go for an EV?

 

[Car-Guy]

so depending on the manufacturers model timing the summer can also be a good time to buy. Car-Guy, you ready to go for an EV?

No, but I was considering a Lucid but have backed off that for now. Considering getting another TRX, especially now that it looks like they will be making them again in 2024.

 

[eytonxav]

No, but I was considering a Lucid but have backed off that for now. Considering getting another TRX, especially now that it looks like they will be making them again in 2024.

Is that the vehicle I see in videos pulling wheelies on the street, 1000 hp?

 

[NW-Bound]

WADR - While the stock market is doing fine, I do not see how the economy is doing fine, it's anemic and is expected to go down from Q2 #s according to some sources...

No, the stock market is not doing fine. Have you checked your portfolio lately? Down mine goes!

Not selling anything, but when do I start to write puts? Maybe I should wait to see unemployment numbers go up.

 

[Car-Guy]

Is that the vehicle I see in videos pulling wheelies on the street, 1000 hp?

The TRX is a 702hp pickup... It's AWD, so no wheelies.

 

[milford]

I don't know if it's taken effect yet but Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to cut OPEC production.

That's been driving oil prices up.

There was also a belief that China economy was back on track but they're really not.

Increase in oil and gas prices may have started to reflect on grocery items. A few of my staple items from Aldi: avocado (.59->.79), bag of spinach (.99->1.29), potato (1.19->1.47 per lb), 3 pack garlic (.99->1.49) have jumped quite significantly from previous month. Inflation seems sticky.

 

[GenXguy]

Increase in oil and gas prices may have started to reflect on grocery items. A few of my staple items from Aldi: avocado (.59->.79), bag of spinach (.99->1.29), potato (1.19->1.47 per lb), 3 pack garlic (.99->1.49) have jumped quite significantly from previous month. Inflation seems sticky.

Those are some pretty big jumps vs. the supposed inflation gummint numbers. The garlic alone is about a 50% spike. "Sticky" is putting it mildly. I'm noticing an increase in something pretty much with every trip - it was a big jump in peanuts last trip. I was actually going to get an ice cream cone in the drive thru the other day, first time in quite a while, and it was 100% higher than pre-pandemic pricing. The ice cream machine was down, so I couldn't get it anyway, but it still left a bad feeling in my stomach.

Fed officials see ‘upside risks’ to inflation possibly leading to more rate hikes, minutes show

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/16/fed-meeting-minutes-signal-coming-rate-moves.html

 

[MichaelB]

I was looking for a new vehicle (again) this weekend. About 6+ months ago what I wanted was impossible to find. Everything was on backorder. Today there are plenty to pick from although prices are up significantly and they don't want to deal. What I bought for ~80k in 2021 is now in the 100 to 110k range. Sure seems inflationary to me. An extra 20 to 30k isn't going to break me, but I think I'll wait until early next year to see how it goes with car prices "or" with dealers willing to negotiate.

I saw this chart on Twitter today and remembered this post. If new auto production continues to strengthen that should be very positive for buyers

 

[eytonxav]

The TRX is a 702hp pickup... It's AWD, so no wheelies.

I see you:

 

[ShokWaveRider]

^^^^^^^^ What a total wase of money!!!!!