LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

[LOL!]

Update to update: Bought too soon! Lost money already!

 

[LOL!]

Yesterday I submitted a limit order to sell some Total US Bond Index ETF (SPAB), but with the limit 1% higher than the current trades. The ETF closed even lower than what it was trading at, so I didn't even bother to check to see if the order executed or expired. 531

To my total surprise this morning, the order had executed yesterday. Somehow, SPAB spiked up, my trade executed, and then the price dropped.

So this morning I have some money burning a hole in my pocket and I have to put it to work.

 

[Time2]

I took a nibble on a preferred stock on Monday, at Wednesdays close, It is down 39%.
Too soon? /s/

 

[LOL!]

Added about 2% of total portfolio value to my Total US Stock Market Index fund a moment ago.

 

[Brat]

I have concluded that recently down markets happen on Friday. Investors do not know what will befall them over the weekend.

 

[brewer12345]

I have concluded that recently down markets happen on Friday. Investors do not know what will befall them over the weekend.

Tomorrow is also triple witching,so might be extra fun.

 

[LOL!]

Today was a good day in the stock market. I can't recall ever gaining as much in a single day as today.

But that doesn't bode well for tomorrow.

 

[brewer12345]

Today was a good day in the stock market. I can't recall ever gaining as much in a single day as today.

But that doesn't bode well for tomorrow.

So you sold?

 

[LOL!]

So you sold?

What? Do you think I'm a day trader or something?

No, I was doing other things. But all those shares I bought last week are doing better, some are even in the black.

 

[ckelly78z]

Today was a good day in the stock market. I can't recall ever gaining as much in a single day as today.

But that doesn't bode well for tomorrow.

I don't see more than two + days in a row, without another huge drop on bad news. An FDA approved cure for Covid19 will improve consumer confidence, but that will be months from now.

 

[brewer12345]

If we retest and keep bouncing off down 18k, I may start buying.

 

[Sunset]

Today was a good day in the stock market. I can't recall ever gaining as much in a single day as today.

But that doesn't bode well for tomorrow.

I sold a tiny amount today, figuring that in a day or two, it will drop again and I can buy back in and pick up an easy $2K -> $3K of value.

If I'm wrong and it all shoots up, I'll actually do better from all the stuff I didn't sell.

 

[NW-Bound]

Did not buy anything, other than to close out a couple of covered call contracts expiring in a couple of weeks. There's only a few bucks left to make if I let them expire, and I want to clear them off the book.

Several dozen contracts expired worthless last Friday, freeing my shares, and I can write covered calls on them again. However, I will refrain from doing that because I may write at strike prices too low and risk losing my beloved shares if the market surges. My stock AA is now 57%, and it has not been this low since 2009.

I have made more than $60k YTD with selling options, or $20k/month on the average. This is about 2x what I made in 2018, and 2019, due to market volatility. Still a fraction of the loss on the stocks, but this eases the pain a little bit. Every $k helps.

 

[Mr._Graybeard]

Today was a good day in the stock market. I can't recall ever gaining as much in a single day as today.

But that doesn't bode well for tomorrow.

My SCHD position returned to positive territory today. Bless you, Chuck.

 

[LOL!]

My recent purchases are into 5-figure gains over doing nothing. While it's nice, it still doesn't put much of a dent into recent 6-figure losses. Maybe by next week, half the losses will be recovered. 478 Nevertheless, the current portfolio value is above the start of the 2019 value which is probably not saying much.

Enjoy the rally!

 

[LOL!]

I sold shares of a small cap index ETF SPSM a moment ago and bought Total US Bond Index shares. I had set a limit order that I did not intend to get filled, but here in the last few minutes things went wild. SPSM shares are now trading lower than the spike. I don't know what's going on, but I'm not complaining at the moment.

 

[LOL!]

Hmmm, no one 7 wanted 2 to stick 0 around for the weekend. That's OK with me.

 

[BeachOrCity]

Hmmm, no one 7 wanted 2 to stick 0 around for the weekend. That's OK with me.

....and monday is almost always down recently..... COVID news builds over each weekend.

 

[LOL!]

Decided to sell some shares of Developed Markets Index VEA. I last sold some of these shares on 2/21/2020 (see this post) which reads rather presciently in hindsight, doesn't it? 941

In contrast to back then, the shares I'm selling today will have a small loss, so this could be an example of tax-loss harvesting.

I have submitted a limit order with a limit price higher than the currently trading price, so I might have to change the order to get it to execute and will update later.

Update: My limit price was about to be reached, so I up the limit price, but then things popped, so I simply changed to a market order and the order was executed.

 

[LOL!]

And another update. I've decided to start selling shares of Total US Stock Market just to de-risk. These are in a tax-deferred account and were purchased recently, so I am realizing some gains. I am using limit orders set slightly higher than the current price just to make myself feel good.

And look, now that I have submitted the limit order, things decide to start dropping. Oh, well.

Update: And things went back up. Limit orders executed. I'll step away for a few hours and if things are higher towards the end of the day, then I might sell some more shares.

 

[petery129]

....and monday is almost always down recently..... COVID news builds over each weekend.

I was hoping this will happen too but market is up. I don't understand the market.

 

[Sunset]

I was hoping this will happen too but market is up. I don't understand the market.

Ditto...

Perhaps it's covid-19 fatigue, the numbers are high now, so whats an extra 200 deaths.

 

[LOL!]

With less than 20 minutes to go to the close I came back to check on things. Before I went I had submitted a limit order to sell more Total US Stock Market, but I set it high enough that it has not executed yet. I'll just sit here and browse the internet while watching what happens. I am hoping for a nice pop here in the next 15 minutes, but no matter what actually happens, I will not be disappointed. Update when the market closes.

Update: Limit order expired. Additional update: SPSM that I sold last week did not climb to the price I had sold it for. Tomorrow is the end of the quarter. There will be some window dressing.

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

I took a nibble on a preferred stock on Monday, at Wednesdays close, It is down 39%.
Too soon? /s/

Which stock? I think that stocks that ARE the future will lead the recovery out of this hell hole. That is to say that they will turn the corner harder and sooner than stocks like Ford, GMC or Kodak, stocks that are on their way out. Errr, wait, Kodak is already gone.

This Coronavirus disruption is the perfect time for many investors to transition into stocks that maybe were considered too expensive before but that stand a high likelihood of being dominant over the next couple of decades. If there is another leg down (which seems pretty likely at this point) I plan to jump in early with stocks that were valued highly before CV hit like Tesla and Amazon while holding off for a confirmed bottom with more boring stocks like McDonald's and Johnson & Johnson.

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

I don't see more than two + days in a row, without another huge drop on bad news. An FDA approved cure for Covid19 will improve consumer confidence, but that will be months from now.

What will boost the market sooner than a cure for COVID-19 is the wide availability of a cost-effective quick test for COVID-19. This will allow people to get back to work, start traveling again, etc. It will also eventually help snuff out this epidemic.