LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

And now today things have swung the opposite way from my previous exchange of small-cap-value (SCV) to MTUM. Later today I may actually sell MTUM and buy back some SCV ETF. Of course, I wish I had done my Tuesday trade on Wednesday, but it is what it is. 798
 
This morning I will declare partial victory on that last trade of small-cap-value to MTUM since MTUM has now lost less money than the stuff I sold. :angel: 932
 
I've been reading this thread for years, and I don't want to go back and start over. But in the past I don't remember you either wailing and gnashing teeth or celebrating based on single day movements in the market. Wouldn't it be better to stick with your regular updates to counteract the extreme and unpredictable volatility that's going on right now? This "I won!" "I lost" "I won" stuff is making me dizzy.
 
This is a market timing thread. When there isn't much going on there are not many posts because there is no reason to make any trades. But the last month has been practically unprecedented with many opportunities.

In other words, this entire market timing newsletter is to take advantage of "the extreme and unpredictable volatility that's going on right now ...." Folks can judge whether market timing is for losers or not. The reality is probably that market timing as practiced in this thread does not lose any more money than any other hobby that one practices.
 
517 I just sold the MTUM bought in the last reported trade of 4/28 because of some squirrelly action in today's market. MTUM and IJS were both up about 2%, but IJS cratered, so that now it is down 0.5 while MTUM was up 1.5% when I sold. The total performance difference is a net gain of about 4% since 4/28 over doing nothing since small-cap value had lost money while MTUM had gained money through today.

I will now go look for a reason for the IJS sell-off in the last hour. Maybe I will buy some in the next 15 minutes. (Update: I didn't.)
 
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LOL! said:
This is a market timing thread.
Click to expand...


Oh, well why didn't you say that,

I sold 13% at the end of last year and 17% more on 2-28 this year, I bought it all back on 3-25.
I bought back 17% cheaper than I sold. I don't recommend that, I told my kids don't do that. I'm happy I did it.
My advice, don't market time. Buy and Hold.
 
Time2 said:
Oh, well why didn't you say that,

I sold 13% at the end of last year and 17% more on 2-28 this year, I bought it all back on 3-25.
I bought back 17% cheaper than I sold. I don't recommend that, I told my kids don't do that. I'm happy I did it.
My advice, don't market time. Buy and Hold.
Click to expand...

:dance: Most excellent! Thanks for sharing, but perhaps next time post in near real-time please, so that we all might benefit. :LOL:
 
The last transactions resulted in a +4% gain over doing nothing, so today I don't feel bad buying VTI (Total US Stock Market) even though it has gone up a bit this morning. 724 Sure, I wish I had bought earlier, but beggars cannot be choosers. If this drops, then I will tax-loss harvest. If it goes up, then I will rebalance by selling VTI in a tax-deferred account.
 
LOL! said:
:dance: Most excellent! Thanks for sharing, but perhaps next time post in near real-time please, so that we all might benefit. :LOL:
Click to expand...


You would take my advice? Then I'm gonna send a bill, if it is good advice pay it! :LOL:


I say sell when VTI hits 152, the problem is, I don't have a buy back date.
 
harllee's "sell all equities" got to me, so I sold all the VTI that I bought on 5/7 for a small profit this morning.9953

Update: And I should have bought more and not sold any. :(
 
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With today's weak closing prices the last trades have worked out better than a stimulus payment. 213 VTI has closed lower than I sold it for. Though MTUM is higher than I sold it for the drop in VSIAX has more than made up for that because I would have lost a lot of money if I had not sold some of it. Onward to tomorrow!
 
It is interesting to me that IJS was trading this morning at a price below where I sold about a month ago. It has gone up and down a few times during that month.

I've submitted a limit order to buy back some of the VTI I sold earlier this week. I don't expect the limit to be reached though.

Early afternoon update 431: VTI limit order executed, so I submitted a market order to buy even more.
 
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And I bought some IJS (small-cap value) here at the close today. 462 No particular reason except that it had dropped below where I last sold it plus I need to rebalance into equities since I had sold so much recently.

And VTI closed up from where I last bought shares. I feel optimistic which is never a good sign.
 
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Well, IJS is down more than 4.5% since I bought it yesterday afternoon. Sigh!

The only response is to BUY MORE! ... eventually ...

And I doubled my position in IJS and also bought some MTUM this morning. I'm doomed now!
 
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I had sold a bunch of covered calls in various etf's, mostly VTI as I wanted to sell the ETF, but was nagged by that worry of selling only to see the price go up..

So due to the drop, it looks like I'm keeping the stocks, and the $4,000 in option premiums, and I was saved from being a DMT :)
 
Sunset said:
So due to the drop, it looks like I'm keeping the stocks, and the $4,000 in option premiums, and I was saved from being a DMT :)
Click to expand...
I like it. Nothing wrong with being a clean market timer.
 
So today was rather remarkable to me because the swing from the big drops of this morning to the recovery and gains at the close was about +5%. That is, the portfolio lived to fight another day of volatility tomorrow. Folks who only use mutual funds probably won't even realize that anything happened. 681
 
I'm going to have to post a chart at the end of today since now it looks like doubling up on IJS on May 13-14 might become the biggest short-term market timing win of 2020 for me. 21
 
At this moment IJS is trading at close to 111 which is up 8% for the day. Earlier on May 8th it was over 112 and on April 29 it was over 118. When I last sold small cap value on April 28 IJS was also over 112. So I have decided to just hold onto IJS and no trades to report today. But I was tempted to sell IJS and buy more MTUM in its place since MTUM is up only 1.3% today unlikes IJS up 8% and US Total Stock Market up 3.7%. 114
 
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Sunset said:
I was speaking in advance, so just goes to show the volatility of the market.

With the reversal today, I'm closer to getting the stocks called at the high price. Friday will be the goal line, will see if I cross it :popcorn:
Click to expand...

All my options expired on Friday. Which was great considering the market move today, just pure luck :dance:

So I kept the stocks and wrote new call options on them for $3,500 :popcorn:
 
572 It was a good decision to keep holding IJS and not to buy nor add to MTUM in the last week. IJS that I bought is now up a solid 20% while MTUM has languished. With this morning's further weakness in MTUM, I sold some shares at a small profit which is just about the opposite of what I would normally do since I like to buy things that have gone down and sell things that have gone way up. OTOH, with the strong performance of equity markets in the past week, I am overweight in equities and pruning back is something I can live with.

Now watch things reverse the rest of the day. :(
 
No doubt about it ... today's sell of MTUM looks like a bad move.
 
This past weekend I checked the asset allocation of my portfolio and discovered that it was overweighted to US equities. Yep, since stocks have had such a great run the portfolio needs some trimming back in US stocks. This morning I sold a small amount of MTUM shares and bought BND shares. I will need to do some more trimming/rebalancing later this week if equities continue to go up. 924
 
Placed a limit order to sell some IJS. Not sure if it will execute, but will update later today. 063 This just continues the slow move to rebalance.

Early afternoon update: My limit order was executed, so that looks helpful so far.
 
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