Mulligan
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
- Joined
- May 3, 2009
- Messages
- 9,343
Got it, thanks.
Its not a life changer trade...But sometimes ya gotta do something easy to make one think he is smart occasionally, ha!
Got it, thanks.
I just got the rest of my Ts today....
Now I am looking to flip like Mulligan and pocket a few hundred$$$s....
I "mulliganed" the crap out of SPLP-A(T) today. Took several hundred dollars in profits and jumped into the T.
I got a Mulligan for you. I had a limit order on CBL-D at $24.64 for weeks, no takers. This AM, it opened at $24.56, and I picked up my 200 shares. It made up for the 111 AGO-E that I didn't buy because I couldn't afford a dollar the day earlier. It pays to be a tightwad.
I "mulliganed" the crap out of SPLP-A(T) today. Took several hundred dollars in profits and jumped into the T.
I pulled a mini-Mulligan with my A shares today.
Still in the process..... will make a few bucks also....
OK... finished my flipping and made $358 net...
Wish I could do more of it!!!
Well today takes the cake...My worst sell a day before I should have trade of all time...AGO-E jumped 59 cents today...A huge jumped for a preferred. Congrats to Freedom for loading up!
Well today takes the cake...My worst sell a day before I should have trade of all time...AGO-E jumped 59 cents today...A huge jumped for a preferred. Congrats to Freedom for loading up!
There was a 147K block that traded at $25.90 at 3:59. Given the volume today and the block sizes, it was fund driven. This is another reason not to buy ETFs and mutual funds. They buy high and sell low and the holders of these ETFs and mutual funds get the shaft.
I would love to sell to them HIGH and buy from them LOW any day, how do I get on their mailing list
Check for unusual volume on PGX and PFF and then check the change in share count reported daily. A large decrease means a sell-off in holdings is coming - a large increase is the opposite.
In this case however, there is another plausible explanation. Both PGX and PFF hold a lot of ENH-C which is being called on Monday the 23rd. I had a large position in ENH-C (5300 shares). I decided to bail at the end of last week and then bought AGO-E on the 16th. There were 9,200,000 shares of ENH-C issued. From their latest holdings data PGX holds 362,742 shares of ENH-C and PFF holds 1,037,341 shares. Both hold AGO-E. ENH-C and AGO-E are both in the financial/insurance sector so expect more buying in this sector (assuming that they maintain their sector weighting) next week as their positions in ENH-C are redeemed on Monday. Other funds have started their replacement already. This explains what happened today.
Just my thoughts on this.
Misery loves company
I also got rid of my AGO-E but it went too early, so only made 24 cents on each one. Totally incredible how high it jumped today..
I also did very poorly on the Mulligan move, basically added to my pile by collecting 400 more SPLP-t , and NOT selling any SPLP-A.
Once again, congrats and very pleased for you, Freedom. Even if I had held we are talking peanuts for my 10k ish purchase... If your theory is correct that is just an example for me not to ever own funds...They will will liquid for liquid over quality to maintain needed share count and will enter at ridiculous prices to get it filled.
Read this from Barron's. I believe I posted a link previously.
Is PFF Getting Too Big for the Preferred Market? - Barron's
At the time of the article the AUM for PFF was $17B now it's $18.3B. This fund is loaded up with convertible preferred stocks and they are taking a beating on those holdings - FTRPR, SWNC, AGN-A, etc...
This explains the poor performance of this fund. SPFF is much smaller fund with even poorer performance.
Investing these days is all about computer driven trading. A spike in interest rates causes a sell-off of bond and preferred funds which then causes a sell-off of the underlying securities leaving active managers to sweep up the bargains in bonds, preferred stocks, notes, etc... I have been playing this game since mid 2013.
I sold my AGO-E because of reports on PR.
How the majority don't have electricity (~80%) or water (75%) and it's a month after the storm.
The videos show how it still looks like a disaster, except where the cars went, the road was bulldozed open.
It was reported 23,000 have flown to FL, and it was estimated another 300,000 would leave the island permanently.
This situation is going to continue to be bad for many months at a minimum.
I thought, how most folks there are not working as the companies don't have power, or transportation is bad, and how this is going to kill any debt servicing.
If everyone leaves the island, who pays the debts ?
Exactly, but also, this issue is holding company debt which is the worst to have, if their subsidiaries are told by regulators to protect their assets and quit sending money to the holding company...This is how insurers can go “bankrupt” but yet still keep paying claims safety as it is all subsidiary based usually. Just too many questions
for the risk of payment and yield for me.
n Cooke, Contributor
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Guys the Puerto Rico exposure here is pretty catastrophic. AGO has around $5.4 billion in principal guarantees and over 8 billion in interest payment guarantees to PR bondholders. AGO has about 6.5 billion in equity value. The position AGO insures currently has mark to market losses of about $3.5 billion and currently they are set to pay an additional $2 billion in coupons on defaulted Puerto Rico bonds in the next 4 years PR bond prices: (Bonds Home). AGO has only reserved less than $500 million for this exposure. AGO is way under reserved at this point. AGO has between $20-40 PER SHARE in current value losses on the Puerto Rico portfolio. The losses also may diminish or eliminate their ability to attain new business or dividend cash to the holding companies to service the bonds. I would not buy this for a 6% coupon and urge you guys to buy anything else that pays 6%.
The Hurricane devastated the already weak outlook for the island. I expect recoveries between 0-20 cents for most of the bonds and currently estimate AGOs losses to be at least 2.5 billion on the principal guarantees and 2-3 billion for interest guarantees. Most of the island is still devastated at this time with 30-50% of businesses still closed and the tourist business offline. There is no way a post bankrupt PR can assume more than 20% of the currently outstanding debt. At this time the island is accessing loans that will be senior to what AGO has insured and tax receipts have fallen 50-80%. Just to be clear the islands government barely has the ability to operate essential services and has no working capital, much less the ability to make bond payments. Search the word Puerto Rico in the AGO 10K: http://bit.ly/2yoj2Jx
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