researching mutual funds

CSdot

Recycles dryer sheets
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Apr 24, 2014
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I am in the process of researching mutual funds for a SepIRA and I am experiencing analysis paralysis.

Does anyone have a suggestion for a useful website that I can use to narrow options, and maybe where I can plug in what funds I already have so I can make sure I am diversified?

Thanks.
 
Others can provide a link for fund x-ray tool to sort out diversification, but I'd suggest just going with a lazy portfolio of 3 or 4 index funds at most.

For example, I'm 60% stocks / 40% bonds and I just split my stocks into 1/3 large cap, 1/3 international and 1/3 small / midcap then 40% into a total bond fund.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Lazy_portfolios
 
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I am in the process of researching mutual funds for a SepIRA and I am experiencing analysis paralysis.

Does anyone have a suggestion for a useful website that I can use to narrow options, and maybe where I can plug in what funds I already have so I can make sure I am diversified?

Thanks.


I just opened a SELF401k with fidelity. I am also experiencing analysis paralysis. I do want to stay with low cost Fidelity Funds. Boy there are alot!
 
There is really no need to research mutual funds anymore. Just pick passively-managed low-expense ratio index mutual funds: US-only, International-only, and/or bond-only. They are all pretty much exactly alike and you cannot go wrong.

See also: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Three-fund_portfolio

There is no possible way to be more diversified.
 
There is really no need to research mutual funds anymore. Just pick passively-managed low-expense ratio index mutual funds: US-only, International-only, and/or bond-only. They are all pretty much exactly alike and you cannot go wrong. ...
+100! The only people who differ with this are people who make their money from selling stock-picker funds.*

I might differ slightly from "pretty much exactly alike" with respect especially to fees. There are hucksters out there charging unconscionable fees to manage total market index funds. There are also hucksters selling sector funds with the word "index" in the name. Check Vanguard to see market-rate fees and to see how many stocks are held in broad-market funds. Vanguard funds are not always the cheapest or the best but they are pretty close to it and can be useful benchmarks for looking at other options. VTSMX and VGTSX are two of the most popular funds. Fido also has a couple of zero-fee funds that are close to being total market funds.

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*Upton Sinclair: “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.
 
There is really no need to research mutual funds anymore. Just pick passively-managed low-expense ratio index mutual funds: US-only, International-only, and/or bond-only. They are all pretty much exactly alike and you cannot go wrong.

See also: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Three-fund_portfolio

There is no possible way to be more diversified.

+1. I believe this to be exactly correct. If you wish, for some reason, to make things more complicated later, you could perform your paralyzing analysis for some time, and then switch from the simpler portfolio. But in reality I expect you would not decide to do so.
 
You should first pick one company to handle your business. I went with Fidelity as their computer systems are excellent, and my 401K's were originally managed by them. They're familiar to me.

Fidelity's got it all--simply put. And other large investment firms are essntially the same.

I choose to keep 5-6 funds at most of the times, and they happen to be Fidelity's better performing funds year after year. All of the investment companies have very good online charts of returns, etc. for comparison purposes.

I do watch my portfolio periodically, but I'm not obsessed at looking online at my accounts all the time. By choosing proper funds for your needs, it's not difficult to be on semi-cruise control.
 
You should first pick one company to handle your business. I went with Fidelity as their computer systems are excellent, and my 401K's were originally managed by them. They're familiar to me.

Fidelity's got it all--simply put. And other large investment firms are essntially the same.

I choose to keep 5-6 funds at most of the times, and they happen to be Fidelity's better performing funds year after year. All of the investment companies have very good online charts of returns, etc. for comparison purposes.

I do watch my portfolio periodically, but I'm not obsessed at looking online at my accounts all the time. By choosing proper funds for your needs, it's not difficult to be on semi-cruise control.

+1
 
Buy the whole market. It's usually best and it's vastly simpler and easier to stick with than the many flavors that buy more of one thing than another. It's simple to do:
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) for stocks,
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) for Bonds.
If you want to get exotic, put 20-30% of your stocks in Vanguard FTSE All World Ex-US ETF (VEU).
You do not have to use Vanguard to buy these - you can get these through most any brokerage for the tiny loads that Vanguard charges. There may be a small fee that the brokerage charges, but these are all trivial. Vanguard, Schwab and Fidelity are all great firms.

Pick a ratio of stocks to bonds somewhere between 80/20 and 60/40 depending on your age. Rebalance occasionally (annually or if a COVID size move happens) to keep your risk profile in line. Otherwise, do nothing and let the market do its magic for a few decades.
 
There is really no need to research mutual funds anymore. Just pick passively-managed low-expense ratio index mutual funds: US-only, International-only, and/or bond-only. They are all pretty much exactly alike and you cannot go wrong.

See also: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Three-fund_portfolio

There is no possible way to be more diversified.



+100. Since this is for a tax-advantaged account, where any bond funds should reside, you can get everything you need, bonds and stocks, through one single, low cost fund. Check out Vanguard’s target date funds and Life Strategy funds. Choose one, set it, forget it.
 
This isn't going to be a popular opinion but I think we are entering a multi-decade era where broad-based market index funds substantially under-perform expectations. We are in the very early stages of the transition from the industrial era to the information/technology age. While the "tech boom" ended in 2000, technology is quickly changing the way business is conducted and old business models are dying out and being replaced by new ways of doing things. While industry has always changed gradually, the changes we are starting to witness now are transformational and the pace of change is accelerating.

Because the market is full of companies that are very slow to change, the profits are shifting to companies that are smaller and more nimble and by leveraging these technological changes these smaller companies can take business from established players and grow rapidly. Alternatively, these larger businesses need to buy solutions from these young, innovative companies just to survive in a modern competitive world.

At the very least, every investor should make sure they have a decent amount of exposure to disruptive technologies in order to insure against being left behind. I would look into the five or six funds offered by Ark Invest and consider making disruptive technologies at least 10% of your portfolio if not a lot more. They will be more volatile than a broad-based market index fund but they should have considerably higher returns over multi-year periods.

Ark Innovation (ARKK) is their most broad-based fund because it doesn't focus on a single technology like genomics, robotics, AI, etc, it is a blend of their highest conviction picks in their total collection of disruptive technologies and is the natural choice for investors who only want to add one disruptive technology fund to their portfolio. I also like ARKG which focusses on genomics, a very fast growing field that is ready for prime-time due the rapid decline in costs associated with sequencing genes. But really, all their funds focus on different technologies that are all likely to have large impacts on the way everything is done over the next 20 years, from banking to agriculture to medicine to transportation to leisure and recreation.
 
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This isn't going to be a popular opinion but I think we are entering a multi-decade era where broad-based market index funds substantially under-perform expectations. ...
Not just unpopular, but mathematically incorrect. Nobel winner Dr. William Sharpe explains the simple arithmetic here: https://web.stanford.edu/~wfsharpe/art/active/active.htm

Broad-based index funds will underperform to the extent of their costs: expense ratio + trading costs + market impact costs. The average of stock pickers will underperform by their much larger costs.

For those who are interested in a little more, Dr. Sharpe discusses the paper in a recent interview here: https://www.ishares.com/us/insights/etf-trends/qa-with-nobel-laureate-william-f-sharpe-on-indexing

(OT admittedly, but Sharpe has also produced an hilarious video on the subject of financial advisors:
Well worth four or five minutes if you have not seen it.)
 
This isn't going to be a popular opinion but I think we are entering a multi-decade era where broad-based market index funds substantially under-perform expectations. We are in the very early stages of the transition from the industrial era to the information/technology age. While the "tech boom" ended in 2000, technology is quickly changing the way business is conducted and old business models are dying out and being replaced by new ways of doing things. ....
This is why the top holdings and a large fraction of the broad-based market index funds are ALREADY those kinds of companies that you touted.
 
Now back to the OPs question: Morningstar is the best site I have found for analyzing mutual funds. They also have a decent amount of information on stocks ETFs, closed-end and index funds.

A lot of it is free. But a subscription I have found to be worth it. You can also subscribe for a short period of time use it and then decide to cancel it. You may also find that your broker has a lot of Morningstar information available among their research tools.

Best of luck.
 
Now back to the OPs question: Morningstar is the best site I have found for analyzing mutual funds. They also have a decent amount of information on stocks ETFs, closed-end and index funds.

A lot of it is free. But a subscription I have found to be worth it. You can also subscribe for a short period of time use it and then decide to cancel it. You may also find that your broker has a lot of Morningstar information available among their research tools.
Yes, I get it via Schwab's web site, though not necessarily all the editorial material. Probably just the fund analysis.

I think the M* hard data is wonderful to have.

The one caution with M* though is that the "star" rating is strictly rear-view mirror stuff. Studies have shown that it has little or no predictive value*. Even M* admits this to a degree and says they never said it did. The other thing is that the top 10% of funds in a category get five stars, regardless of whether the the category as a whole is a huge winner or a huge loser.

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*The WSJ article is behind their paywall. Here is one of many that discuss it: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/20/adv...st-journals-morningstar-ratings-critique.html
 
IMHO, Morningstar has the best fund research tools around. A good amount of info for "free", but the better / more in-depth info will run you roughly $199/yr. I've had a subscription for years..

Unfortunately, they "re-did" the website a year or two back, and it's a lot less beneficial than it used to be. We lost a lot of good tools, like the ability to directly compare one fund against another in terms of 1, 3, 5, 10 yr performance, risk metrics, etc.

There's also PortfolioVisualizer (https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/). Great tools there for backtesting, but as they say.."past performance is no guarantee of future results". It used to be entirely free and some features still are, but the one I use the most - Save and Load Portfolios, now requires a $19 / mo (!!!) subscription. No thanks. That's more than M*, and M* has a heck of a lot more useful info IMHO.

All that said, you've also somewhat (probably unintentionally, LOL!) stepped right into the proverbial Pandora's box of active v. passive management debate. Many will say there is no need to "pick" funds and instead just own index funds that cover the whole market, and there is good in-depth data that supports that view. HOWEVER - there's risk in doing that also. As they say..a rising tide lifts all boats..and a dropping tide sinks all boats. So, as long as the markets in general are going north - all is good. But God help you if you get caught up in the mass exodus where, for instance, the S&P500 suddenly takes a downturn and stays in a downturn for a while. In those market scenarios, the argument is often made that active management MAY outperform passive. Historically that hasn't proven to always happen, but I do think in the newer market scenario where everybody and their brother is favoring index fund investing that we may see a time where index fund investing underperforms active in some more extreme market drop scenarios going forward.

Your best bet whether going active or passive is to own "most" (if not all) segments of the market (Large/Mid/Small and Growth/Core/Value - and every combination thereof, whether that's by owning a "Total Market" fund or like I did - picking specific funds that cover each of the 9 segments). I personally have some of my assets in index funds..and some in active funds. But - I took a ton of time to build a portfolio that covers combinations of Large, Mid and Small Cap stocks, Growth, Core and Value stocks, Internationals (LG-Growth, LG-Value and Small-Growth in my case) and more. I even have a Healthcare fund that I bought based on conviction that HC will outperform the market in years to come. Ditto, a Tech fund I own. Then there's the quirky stuff like a small cap International, Emerging Markets debt, Foreign Bond, etc. Of course, managing that diverse of a portfolio can be a real PITA, and you either have to a) love it or b) have lots and lots of free time - or both.

Hope that helps at least a little..I'm sure I probably just kicked the hornets nest a bit on the whole active/passive thing :), but Portfolio Construction - and more importantly, Asset Allocation (which compelling research data says is even MORE determinative of results than the specific funds one picks) are fascinating subjects that often don't get the attention they deserve with the all too frequent "just buy the total market and be done with it" approach often advocated..
 
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... we may see a time where index fund investing underperforms active in some more extreme market drop scenarios going forward.
Actually we won't. See my post # 12 above.

... like I did - picking specific funds that cover each of the 9 segments). I personally have some of my assets in index funds..and some in active funds. But - I took a ton of time to build a portfolio that covers combinations of Large, Mid and Small Cap stocks, Growth, Core and Value stocks, Internationals (LG-Growth, LG-Value and Small-Growth in my case) and more. I even have a Healthcare fund that I bought based on conviction that HC will outperform the market in years to come. Ditto, a Tech fund I own. ...
Sounds like a lot of work! Have you had that portfolio long enough to compare in PV its performance to a much simpler approach like a US total market and a dash of International total market? (Not a backtest but from the point where you turned the portfolio loose in the market.)
 
Actually we won't. See my post # 12 above.

Respect your opinion, but we won't know that until it happens one way or the other..

There's WAY too much "herd approach" to passive investing nowadays. Literally trillions of dollars in passive funds.

When the music stops, the herd is gonna bolt. And when that happens, it will happen with never before seen speed due to modern "improvements" in investing vs. say, even the 80s or 90s.

Unless you want to ride the bucking bronco and have a VERY long term horizon (I don't), getting caught up in a stampede to the exits is likely not going to be a lot of fun.

Only time will tell..but we've had a huge shift in the active vs. passive mentality over the past 10 years. And when the herd rushes to the exits..it's gonna be every person for themselves..and the results may or may not be pretty, IMHO.

And while every fund I own hasn't "beat" the Total Market or S&P500, many have - including for example my Health Care fund. Just as an example..1 year: +16%. 3 year: +7%. 5 year: roughly even. 10 year: +7%. 15 year: +6%. Now, in the spirit of fair disclosure..my International picks have SUCKED compared to the S&P500 - but that's a general trend over the past 5-10 years for ALL International that I expect will flip in a big way in 2021 and beyond. So, it CAN be done..more importantly, I've positioned things to not get 100% caught up in the rush to the exits when it happens - and it's very likely to happen in 2021 IMHO.

Net net - my own personal recommendation is to hold the "bulk" / core of your investments in passive index funds..but position yourself strategically with some conscious 'thought' into where you believe the market is going over the next 5 years or so (like I have with Healthcare, Science & Tech and International), and adjust every year as you see trends change. Will that "beat" Total Market over time? Hard to say in a constantly rising market..but more importantly..what happens when the broader market craters? That's when conscious portfolio allocation "should" win and (more importantly) provide at least "some" asset protection.

Incidentally, it's important to mention I'm not looking to "beat" on the upside. I'm intentionally working to limit my downside risk by not getting caught up with the "herd". So, YMMV depending on your own goals.
 
Respect your opinion, but we won't know that until it happens one way or the other.
Did you read Dr. Sharpe's paper? It's not my "opinion." Or his, for that matter. As he points out, it's a mathematical fact that passive will always deliver the market average less costs. Up, down, sideways, herd bolting or herd asleep. It doesn't matter.

Now the herd's behavior can move the market average up and down, that's certainly true. But can the herd make the passive result deviate from the market average? No. Will the herd ever be beaten on average by the higher cost stock pickers? No. Again, not opinion. Just arithmetic.

And I don't think the move to passive really changed things in the macro market all that much. Think about it: Before extensive indexing, the "herd" owned the market cap. The only difference was that the herd members owned different pieces of it, but they still owned the market cap just as they do now as passive investors. So when the herd moves, I don't expect that it will be wildly different than it was before passive investing came along. Members' microeconomics will change but the macro effect will be the same. When the herd sells, the market goes down. When the herd buys, it goes up. Maybe the S&P will be affected a little bit more in a selloff as arguably it may be held in weaker hands.
 
As far as active vs passive, my 401K is mostly index as we had very little active choices. My IRA with Fidelity has actively managed funds and has handily beat the total market. Attached chart compares the 4 funds in my Fido IRA vs Vanguard Total Market Fund. 3 of the Fido funds beat the total market and one trailed. In the aggregate they beat the total market by a wide margin. I did buy these funds a long time ago before indexing was so in vogue.
I actually enjoy fund and stock research, but understand a lot of people don’t which is one big appeal of the index funds, along with lower expense ratios. I do agree with post 18 from 24601NoMore that in the event of a mass exodus from the market, active fund managers may have an advantage.
Back to the OP’s questions, I currently use Morningstar for mutual fund research as others have mentioned.
The interactive chart lets you compare different funds’ performance over different time periods if you want to compare your funds’ performance to others. The style box shows whether the funds are growth, value or a blend and what size companies they invest in, so you can tell how diversified you are.
 

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I am in the process of researching mutual funds for a SepIRA and I am experiencing analysis paralysis.

Does anyone have a suggestion for a useful website that I can use to narrow options, and maybe where I can plug in what funds I already have so I can make sure I am diversified?

Thanks.

Go to:

https://www.morningstar.com/

and type your mutual fund ticker symbol into the search box.

Then click on the Portfolio tab which will give you a view of the types of securities inside the fund. Scroll further down to Holdings and you will see the top 10 individual stocks inside the fund. Click on Show More Holdings and you will see the top 25 individual stocks inside the fund. By comparing the top 10 stocks in each fund and the percentage they make up of each fund you can see if there are duplication of stocks in your mutual funds.

At minimum you should have a large cap US fund, a small cap US fund, and a large cap International fund. Be sure to double check the stocks in the international funds because frequently they will have US stocks that have a large presence outside the US like Mastercard, Visa, Google, etc.
 
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BTW, I am NOT an index fund investor. Here is my one year return as of January 4, 2021.

Returns vs Market 010421.jpg
 
BTW, I am NOT an index fund investor. Here is my one year return as of January 4, 2021.
Do that ten years in a row and you'll have my attention. A stopped clock is right twice a day.
 
Not just unpopular, but mathematically incorrect. Nobel winner Dr. William Sharpe explains the simple arithmetic here: https://web.stanford.edu/~wfsharpe/art/active/active.htm

I agree with the math presented there (I think). But it certainly doesn't say what you are implying in your comment above. The math presented speaks to each body of both active and passive funds. It doesn't speak to an individual fund manager's ability to out-perform the indexes. It only says the entire body of active funds cannot outperform the entire body of passive funds. And yet we know most active funds substantially under-perform the indexes they use as a benchmark. The math you presented proves that some active managers must outperform the indexes. It doesn't hurt that this is observed in the actually body of actively managed funds that actually exist.

Also, my comment that you addressed here said that index funds would likely underperform expectations over the next 20 years. The math presented doesn't even speak to expected future returns. It ignores expectations completely. So it can't say what you think it says.

You have miss-applied this same mathematical proof in a previous post in a similar incorrect manner and I corrected you at that time as well.

The lesson here is that mathematical proofs are a good thing but they only prove what they prove. It's improper to apply them to subjects they don't even address.
 
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