Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[Boho]

No trades for me in September.

 

[ERD50]

No trades for me in September. ...

Are you still playing? Or just happy with that portfolio?

You closed the gap with our market proxy (nunnun) ~ $2,000 this month. At that rate, you just might surpass him in about 97 months. When does the contest end?

Good luck!

-ERD50

 

[sengsational]

We are exactly halfway through the 3 years.

 

[imp4]

We are exactly halfway through the 3 years.

The excitement is palpable. [emoji849][emoji849][emoji849]

 

[Boho]

Are you still playing? Or just happy with that portfolio?

You closed the gap with our market proxy (nunnun) ~ $2,000 this month. At that rate, you just might surpass him in about 97 months. When does the contest end?

I got involved in other things but I'm still playing. Part of it is that, last I checked, all my holdings were down and I don't have a ton of cash to trade with. I tend to hold in cases like that and not buy. I wasn't able to find anything that scares me about their future potential, so I'm just waiting and hoping.

I probably should be more invested under normal circumstances but things are too "interesting" with Trump and stuff and it's hard to say what will happen. Business could suffer big time for the next week, or for the next two years. Trade deals will happen though, eventually, so I'm bullish on that. Likely before the contest ends. But then there's other stuff. I mean, nobody other than the NY Times even knows who's running the country. It seems like something should be done about that, but maybe it won't.

 

[imp4]

My dear Boho, waiting and hoping is not a plan.......

 

[ERD50]

The excitement is palpable. [emoji849][emoji849][emoji849]

My dear Boho, waiting and hoping is not a plan.......

-ERD50

 

[jazz4cash]

I got involved in other things but I'm still playing. Part of it is that, last I checked, all my holdings were down and I don't have a ton of cash to trade with. I tend to hold in cases like that and not buy. I wasn't able to find anything that scares me about their future potential, so I'm just waiting and hoping.

I probably should be more invested under normal circumstances but things are too "interesting" with Trump and stuff and it's hard to say what will happen. Business could suffer big time for the next week, or for the next two years. Trade deals will happen though, eventually, so I'm bullish on that. Likely before the contest ends. But then there's other stuff. I mean, nobody other than the NY Times even knows who's running the country. It seems like something should be done about that, but maybe it won't.

Yes, absolutely. You've stated many excellent reasons why so many folks find buy and hold index investing a comfortable way to participate in the market.
I assume you are sincere about your confidence that you can do better than an index fund, but in case others that are on the fence are watching, I'd just like to point that yes it can be done, but it's a lot of work, it's not easy, and you have to be a bit lucky, too!

 

[sengsational]

K$|counts|best|worst

Player|Rank|Value of All|Value of:Open|Cash Balance|Average Cash
ransil|

18​

|

$1,090K​

|

$1,923K​

|

$-833K​

|

$655K​

|

|

Current Open|Long Trades|Short Trades|Option Trades|R/T Trades|R/T-Unique Stocks

20​

|

235​

|

4​

|

0​

|

106​

|

24​

|

|

Ticker Stock|Gain Loss|Gain/Loss Percent
NVDA|

$22K​

|

10%​

|

|

Ticker Stock|Gain Loss|Gain/Loss Percent
ADOM|

$-36K​

|

-32%​

|

Holding $2M but borrowing $0.8M, highly leveraged and active trader "ransil" dropped to rank 18.

Player|Rank|Stock|Start|Start$|End|End/Now$|Difference|Gain/Loss
ransil|

18​

|

ADOM​

|

06/22/2018​

|

110,933​

|

Open​

|

75,008​

|

-35,925​

|

-32%​

|
|

​

|

AMDA​

|

06/24/2018​

|

12,400​

|

Open​

|

3,120​

|

-9,280​

|

-75%​

|
|

​

|

CAKE​

|

08/01/2018​

|

24,390​

|

08/17/2018​

|

25,580​

|

1,190​

|

5%​

|
|

​

|

CGC​

|

06/22/2018​

|

129,133​

|

07/31/2018​

|

150,435​

|

21,302​

|

17%​

|
|

​

|

CIT​

|

06/01/2018​

|

85,027​

|

Open​

|

87,737​

|

2,710​

|

3%​

|
|

​

|

CSCO​

|

04/02/2018​

|

85,055​

|

06/16/2018​

|

89,370​

|

4,315​

|

5%​

|
|

​

|

CX​

|

05/05/2018​

|

41,450​

|

07/02/2018​

|

48,020​

|

6,570​

|

16%​

|
|

​

|

DBX​

|

07/02/2018​

|

172,690​

|

Open​

|

190,115​

|

17,425​

|

10%​

|
|

​

|

DRYS​

|

04/02/2018​

|

2,960​

|

05/21/2018​

|

3,187​

|

226​

|

8%​

|
|

​

|

ECYT​

|

06/06/2018​

|

-12,710​

|

07/10/2018​

|

-16,830​

|

-4,120​

|

-32%​

|
|

​

|

EQM​

|

07/14/2018​

|

141,548​

|

Open​

|

145,145​

|

3,598​

|

3%​

|
|

​

|

EVC​

|

05/31/2018​

|

39,620​

|

07/01/2018​

|

50,180​

|

10,560​

|

27%​

|
|

​

|

F​

|

07/14/2018​

|

196,675​

|

Open​

|

188,540​

|

-8,135​

|

-4%​

|
|

​

|

FB​

|

07/15/2018​

|

264,850​

|

Open​

|

283,565​

|

18,715​

|

7%​

|
|

​

|

FLEX​

|

05/25/2018​

|

69,360​

|

08/06/2018​

|

70,350​

|

990​

|

1%​

|
|

​

|

FTR​

|

06/09/2018​

|

92,050​

|

Open​

|

77,880​

|

-14,170​

|

-15%​

|
|

​

|

GE​

|

06/01/2018​

|

216,970​

|

Open​

|

227,167​

|

10,197​

|

5%​

|
|

​

|

GPRO​

|

08/01/2018​

|

29,315​

|

08/03/2018​

|

35,500​

|

6,185​

|

21%​

|
|

​

|

GWPH​

|

08/06/2018​

|

32,184​

|

09/18/2018​

|

37,210​

|

5,026​

|

16%​

|
|

​

|

HTBX​

|

05/09/2018​

|

37,525​

|

05/16/2018​

|

43,607​

|

6,082​

|

16%​

|
|

​

|

JD​

|

09/24/2018​

|

24,750​

|

Open​

|

26,090​

|

1,340​

|

5%​

|
|

​

|

JPM​

|

06/05/2018​

|

215,350​

|

09/14/2018​

|

235,465​

|

20,115​

|

9%​

|
|

​

|

KHC​

|

08/24/2018​

|

353,950​

|

Open​

|

330,660​

|

-23,290​

|

-7%​

|
|

​

|

MU​

|

08/04/2018​

|

243,310​

|

Open​

|

247,477​

|

4,167​

|

2%​

|
|

​

|

NATI​

|

05/16/2018​

|

41,015​

|

07/28/2018​

|

45,678​

|

4,663​

|

11%​

|
|

​

|

NTNX​

|

08/09/2018​

|

107,371​

|

Open​

|

113,724​

|

6,353​

|

6%​

|
|

​

|

NVDA​

|

04/02/2018​

|

228,765​

|

05/11/2018​

|

250,999​

|

22,234​

|

10%​

|
|

​

|

NXPI​

|

08/17/2018​

|

190,990​

|

Open​

|

179,550​

|

-11,440​

|

-6%​

|
|

​

|

PDLI​

|

06/23/2018​

|

73,970​

|

08/03/2018​

|

82,318​

|

8,348​

|

11%​

|
|

​

|

QCOM​

|

04/23/2018​

|

5,110​

|

06/12/2018​

|

6,210​

|

1,101​

|

22%​

|
|

​

|

RWLK​

|

06/18/2018​

|

54,690​

|

Open​

|

65,080​

|

10,390​

|

19%​

|
|

​

|

SESN​

|

04/05/2018​

|

6,520​

|

05/05/2018​

|

13,260​

|

6,740​

|

104%​

|
|

​

|

SGMO​

|

09/06/2018​

|

27,970​

|

09/18/2018​

|

29,960​

|

1,990​

|

7%​

|
|

​

|

SITO​

|

07/19/2018​

|

52,792​

|

Open​

|

41,296​

|

-11,496​

|

-22%​

|
|

​

|

SMG​

|

07/29/2018​

|

130,681​

|

Open​

|

133,841​

|

3,160​

|

2%​

|
|

​

|

SO​

|

05/18/2018​

|

21,370​

|

06/29/2018​

|

23,341​

|

1,971​

|

9%​

|
|

​

|

SPOT​

|

04/05/2018​

|

29,275​

|

06/07/2018​

|

32,470​

|

3,195​

|

11%​

|
|

​

|

TLRY​

|

07/31/2018​

|

42,448​

|

08/06/2018​

|

48,050​

|

5,602​

|

13%​

|
|

​

|

UPL​

|

06/20/2018​

|

156,145​

|

Open​

|

156,000​

|

-145​

|

-0%​

|
|

​

|

USB​

|

04/30/2018​

|

44,779​

|

09/19/2018​

|

49,311​

|

4,532​

|

10%​

|
|

​

|

VICL​

|

06/13/2018​

|

21,225​

|

06/20/2018​

|

25,190​

|

3,965​

|

19%​

|
|

​

|

XOG​

|

08/12/2018​

|

134,590​

|

Open​

|

124,190​

|

-10,400​

|

-8%​

|
|

​

|

XOM​

|

04/02/2018​

|

74,280​

|

04/05/2018​

|

75,640​

|

1,360​

|

2%​

|
|

​

|

ZG​

|

08/18/2018​

|

164,915​

|

Open​

|

154,700​

|

-10,215​

|

-6%​

|

 

[ransil]

K$|counts|best|worst

Player|Rank|Value of All|Value of:Open|Cash Balance|Average Cash
ransil|

18​

|

$1,090K​

|

$1,923K​

|

$-833K​

|

$655K​

|

|

Current Open|Long Trades|Short Trades|Option Trades|R/T Trades|R/T-Unique Stocks

20​

|

235​

|

4​

|

0​

|

106​

|

24​

|

|

Ticker Stock|Gain Loss|Gain/Loss Percent
NVDA|

$22K​

|

10%​

|

|

Ticker Stock|Gain Loss|Gain/Loss Percent
ADOM|

$-36K​

|

-32%​

|

Holding $2M but borrowing $0.8M, highly leveraged and active trader "ransil" dropped to rank 18.

Player|Rank|Stock|Start|Start$|End|End/Now$|Difference|Gain/Loss
ransil|

18​

|

ADOM​

|

06/22/2018​

|

110,933​

|

Open​

|

75,008​

|

-35,925​

|

-32%​

|
|

​

|

AMDA​

|

06/24/2018​

|

12,400​

|

Open​

|

3,120​

|

-9,280​

|

-75%​

|
|

​

|

CAKE​

|

08/01/2018​

|

24,390​

|

08/17/2018​

|

25,580​

|

1,190​

|

5%​

|
|

​

|

CGC​

|

06/22/2018​

|

129,133​

|

07/31/2018​

|

150,435​

|

21,302​

|

17%​

|
|

​

|

CIT​

|

06/01/2018​

|

85,027​

|

Open​

|

87,737​

|

2,710​

|

3%​

|
|

​

|

CSCO​

|

04/02/2018​

|

85,055​

|

06/16/2018​

|

89,370​

|

4,315​

|

5%​

|
|

​

|

CX​

|

05/05/2018​

|

41,450​

|

07/02/2018​

|

48,020​

|

6,570​

|

16%​

|
|

​

|

DBX​

|

07/02/2018​

|

172,690​

|

Open​

|

190,115​

|

17,425​

|

10%​

|
|

​

|

DRYS​

|

04/02/2018​

|

2,960​

|

05/21/2018​

|

3,187​

|

226​

|

8%​

|
|

​

|

ECYT​

|

06/06/2018​

|

-12,710​

|

07/10/2018​

|

-16,830​

|

-4,120​

|

-32%​

|
|

​

|

EQM​

|

07/14/2018​

|

141,548​

|

Open​

|

145,145​

|

3,598​

|

3%​

|
|

​

|

EVC​

|

05/31/2018​

|

39,620​

|

07/01/2018​

|

50,180​

|

10,560​

|

27%​

|
|

​

|

F​

|

07/14/2018​

|

196,675​

|

Open​

|

188,540​

|

-8,135​

|

-4%​

|
|

​

|

FB​

|

07/15/2018​

|

264,850​

|

Open​

|

283,565​

|

18,715​

|

7%​

|
|

​

|

FLEX​

|

05/25/2018​

|

69,360​

|

08/06/2018​

|

70,350​

|

990​

|

1%​

|
|

​

|

FTR​

|

06/09/2018​

|

92,050​

|

Open​

|

77,880​

|

-14,170​

|

-15%​

|
|

​

|

GE​

|

06/01/2018​

|

216,970​

|

Open​

|

227,167​

|

10,197​

|

5%​

|
|

​

|

GPRO​

|

08/01/2018​

|

29,315​

|

08/03/2018​

|

35,500​

|

6,185​

|

21%​

|
|

​

|

GWPH​

|

08/06/2018​

|

32,184​

|

09/18/2018​

|

37,210​

|

5,026​

|

16%​

|
|

​

|

HTBX​

|

05/09/2018​

|

37,525​

|

05/16/2018​

|

43,607​

|

6,082​

|

16%​

|
|

​

|

JD​

|

09/24/2018​

|

24,750​

|

Open​

|

26,090​

|

1,340​

|

5%​

|
|

​

|

JPM​

|

06/05/2018​

|

215,350​

|

09/14/2018​

|

235,465​

|

20,115​

|

9%​

|
|

​

|

KHC​

|

08/24/2018​

|

353,950​

|

Open​

|

330,660​

|

-23,290​

|

-7%​

|
|

​

|

MU​

|

08/04/2018​

|

243,310​

|

Open​

|

247,477​

|

4,167​

|

2%​

|
|

​

|

NATI​

|

05/16/2018​

|

41,015​

|

07/28/2018​

|

45,678​

|

4,663​

|

11%​

|
|

​

|

NTNX​

|

08/09/2018​

|

107,371​

|

Open​

|

113,724​

|

6,353​

|

6%​

|
|

​

|

NVDA​

|

04/02/2018​

|

228,765​

|

05/11/2018​

|

250,999​

|

22,234​

|

10%​

|
|

​

|

NXPI​

|

08/17/2018​

|

190,990​

|

Open​

|

179,550​

|

-11,440​

|

-6%​

|
|

​

|

PDLI​

|

06/23/2018​

|

73,970​

|

08/03/2018​

|

82,318​

|

8,348​

|

11%​

|
|

​

|

QCOM​

|

04/23/2018​

|

5,110​

|

06/12/2018​

|

6,210​

|

1,101​

|

22%​

|
|

​

|

RWLK​

|

06/18/2018​

|

54,690​

|

Open​

|

65,080​

|

10,390​

|

19%​

|
|

​

|

SESN​

|

04/05/2018​

|

6,520​

|

05/05/2018​

|

13,260​

|

6,740​

|

104%​

|
|

​

|

SGMO​

|

09/06/2018​

|

27,970​

|

09/18/2018​

|

29,960​

|

1,990​

|

7%​

|
|

​

|

SITO​

|

07/19/2018​

|

52,792​

|

Open​

|

41,296​

|

-11,496​

|

-22%​

|
|

​

|

SMG​

|

07/29/2018​

|

130,681​

|

Open​

|

133,841​

|

3,160​

|

2%​

|
|

​

|

SO​

|

05/18/2018​

|

21,370​

|

06/29/2018​

|

23,341​

|

1,971​

|

9%​

|
|

​

|

SPOT​

|

04/05/2018​

|

29,275​

|

06/07/2018​

|

32,470​

|

3,195​

|

11%​

|
|

​

|

TLRY​

|

07/31/2018​

|

42,448​

|

08/06/2018​

|

48,050​

|

5,602​

|

13%​

|
|

​

|

UPL​

|

06/20/2018​

|

156,145​

|

Open​

|

156,000​

|

-145​

|

-0%​

|
|

​

|

USB​

|

04/30/2018​

|

44,779​

|

09/19/2018​

|

49,311​

|

4,532​

|

10%​

|
|

​

|

VICL​

|

06/13/2018​

|

21,225​

|

06/20/2018​

|

25,190​

|

3,965​

|

19%​

|
|

​

|

XOG​

|

08/12/2018​

|

134,590​

|

Open​

|

124,190​

|

-10,400​

|

-8%​

|
|

​

|

XOM​

|

04/02/2018​

|

74,280​

|

04/05/2018​

|

75,640​

|

1,360​

|

2%​

|
|

​

|

ZG​

|

08/18/2018​

|

164,915​

|

Open​

|

154,700​

|

-10,215​

|

-6%​

|

Still beating Boho [emoji16]

 

[Boho]

Still beating Boho [emoji16]

Not anymore

 

[SecondCor521]

Not anymore

How are you doing vs. nunnun?

 

[Boho]

How are you doing vs. nunnun?

He dropped from $1,247,804.20 to $1,183,852.32 today. Pretty equal to the S&P. Still way ahead of me at the moment.

 

[ERD50]

He dropped from $1,247,804.20 to $1,183,852.32 today. Pretty equal to the S&P. Still way ahead of me at the moment.

That's a l-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-n-g 'moment'.

He's been way ahead of you for at least a year.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

That's a l-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-n-g 'moment'.

He's been way ahead of you for at least a year.

-ERD50

I was number one longer than he was number one.

 

[ERD50]

I was number one longer than he was number one.

When did the contest change from "Beat Boho" to "Be #1 longer than a B&H Market Indexer"? Did all participants agree to this change?

How about this change: "Beat Boho with lower volatility"? Oh wait, you are being beat by nunnun in that category too.

At any rate, I'd fully expect that a non-diversified portfolio would be more likely to reach number one than a diversified index portfolio. Or last place for that matter (which has also been reached by the less diversified players).

I was going to ask "So, what's your point?", but it's obvious - an attempt to divert from the fact that you are being beat. By someone who has napped through the whole contest. Someone with no particular Rock-Paper-Scissors skills even. That must sting.

On the more directly constructive side of things - have you learned anything from this contest? Or will you go all the way to the end with excuses?

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

When did the contest change from "Beat Boho" to "Be #1 longer than a B&H Market Indexer"?

Being ahead for about a year isn't the contest any more than being #1 for probably most of those 6 other months.[/quote]

On the more directly constructive side of things - have you learned anything from this contest?

Well, a single Rite Aid trade is what got me behind because, IIRC, investors didn't like the details of the merger that finally happened. It was widely reported that the terms would be tweaked to get the long sought merger approved and investors seemed fine with that. The fear seemed all about a failed merger but I was betting on the merger being approved and bought the stock. Then it was approved but people didn't like that the terms were tweaked so they sold. So, what does one learn from this one out of hundreds of trades? I've started to diversify a little more, but that requires more work. I feel like I don't need to change much.

 

[SecondCor521]

Or will you go all the way to the end with excuses?

That would be my prediction.

I also predict there will also be the bonus feature of identifying post hoc statistics such as "Well, if you only look at posters whose usernames start with B and if you ignore my RAD trade and only look at May through June 2017, then I'm #1!"

I also predict, as I thought I had done earlier on this thread but perhaps I didn't, that nunnun will end up in the top half at the end of the contest and that Boho will end up below him in the rankings.

ETA: I did predict these latter two items already in post #61 on this thread: http://www.early-retirement.org/for...-boho-contest-v2-0-a-86109-7.html#post2000540

 

[ERD50]

...
Well, a single Rite Aid trade is what got me behind ...

So, what does one learn from this one out of hundreds of trades? I've started to diversify a little more, but that requires more work. ....

OK, good, you are learning about the power of diversification (shouldn't have taken that long or been that hard, all the supporting info is out there, and easy to digest).

But you have yet to learn that diversification does not take hard work. I'll spell it out for you:

A) Player nunnun has been napping.

B) Player nunnun is well diversified.

C) Player nunnun diversified with very little effort, and due to the rules of the game, IIRC, he had to buy two broad index funds, the game would not allow him to put all the game money in a single broad index fund. Twice the effort of real life. The horrors!

D) Player nunnun is beating you.

E-Z) Player nunnun is beating you. ('E-Z', get it? EZ, Easy? )


You have put far more effort into making excuses than nunnun has put into building his diversified portfolio.

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

...
I also predict, as I thought I had done earlier on this thread but perhaps I didn't, that nunnun will end up in the top half at the end of the contest and that Boho will end up below him in the rankings.

ETA: I did predict these latter two items already in post #61 on this thread: http://www.early-retirement.org/for...-boho-contest-v2-0-a-86109-7.html#post2000540

I should probably repeat what I've said before. Boho certainly could come out high in the rank at the end (or low in the rank). That's what can happen when you have low diversification. It can be highly volatile, and far more likely to be up or down a lot, compared to a broad index.

It's kind of funny that he's talking about getting more diversified after he's down. That's just the opposite of how this game could be played. If I had managed to have some good trades, I would then diversify to try to lock in that gain. He is likely to lock in his (relative) loss. He probably has a better chance of coming out ahead at this point if he shoots for the fences. Not a good investing strategy, but probably the right game strategy at this point.

He still has a lot to learn.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

I should probably repeat what I've said before. Boho certainly could come out high in the rank at the end (or low in the rank). That's what can happen when you have low diversification. It can be highly volatile, and far more likely to be up or down a lot, compared to a broad index.

It's kind of funny that he's talking about getting more diversified after he's down. That's just the opposite of how this game could be played. If I had managed to have some good trades, I would then diversify to try to lock in that gain. He is likely to lock in his (relative) loss. He probably has a better chance of coming out ahead at this point if he shoots for the fences. Not a good investing strategy, but probably the right game strategy at this point.

He still has a lot to learn.

-ERD50

You're talking like I want to buy the index. I'd just like to hold 5-6 stocks at a time instead of 1-3, or at least keep each one below $200,000. I don't take the time to do all that.

 

[ERD50]

You're talking like I want to buy the index. I'd just like to hold 5-6 stocks at a time instead of 1-3, or at least keep each one below $200,000. I don't take the time to do all that.

No, that's not what I said.

But that's OK. Carry on.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

I was going to buy the S&P index which would have been my first trade in months but then I checked the chart for the year and it looks like the comments about gains for the year being erased are a little misleading. The market got freakishly high in the beginning of the year before quickly dropping. I agree with pb4uski:

VTI is only ~10% off from it 52 week high so it may have a way to go.

This will be another month of no activity for me. Things are narrowing between me and nunnun just by me holding.

 

[Boho]

Just to show I'm still playing, I looked for something to buy on Monday but I'm going to wait until more third quarter reports come in before I look again. I think there will be a small window between that and Trump's China meeting when I may buy. Like the second week of November. I almost bought L3 Technologies though.

 

[natetheb]

Does the simulator replicate dividends and DRIP properly? If so, I will consider joining this late in the game as a test of some things I am considering.