Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[Boho]

If I think I can make a better buy than an index fund, I don't worry about my exit very much. If you get a better deal from a stock buy than someone else, you're ahead of the game. You might as well hold the way index investors do. It's only when you decide, for whatever reason, that it's a good time to sell, that you should sell. If you're not sure and you're scared then just hold and you're already ahead of the game just by getting the better price. Diversify if you want less risk.

I feel the same way about exit strategies in war. Sometimes you have to take a chance and not take the time plan everything that could occur years from now. Situations could be that bleak. Sometimes it's worth fighting an indefinite war to keep things somewhat in check. Exit strategies are over rated.

 

[imp4]

If I think I can make a better buy than an index fund, I don't worry about my exit very much. If you get a better deal from a stock buy than someone else, you're ahead of the game. You might as well hold the way index investors do. It's only when you decide, for whatever reason, that it's a good time to sell, that you should sell. If you're not sure and you're scared then just hold and you're already ahead of the game just by getting the better price. Diversify if you want less risk.

I feel the same way about exit strategies in war. Sometimes you have to take a chance and not take the time plan everything that could occur years from now. Situations could be that bleak. Sometimes it's worth fighting an indefinite war to keep things somewhat in check. Exit strategies are over rated.

It is not my intent to belittle or patronize you, but you sound like a child when you state this.

 

[Boho]

It is not my intent to belittle or patronize you, but you sound like a child when you state this.

That's better than not realizing it in the mature way. It's ridiculous how many people don't get "buy low." You could by at a random time or take a shot at finding low prices. Just a common sense shot without reading about any systems for determining when it's low enough.

All I'm saying is that everything you do as an index investor could remain the same with the only change being to buy some part of the index when the price seems to be especially good.

And what kind of exit strategy to you want when some horrible event is occurring by people intent to keep it going? You have to fight against something like that whether there's an agreed upon exit plan or not.

I had no exit plan when I started this post and I bet you have none for yours. Sometimes it's OK to wing it.

 

[imp4]

I had no exit plan when I started this post and I bet you have none for yours. Sometimes it's OK to wing it.

I completely agree that intuition can be helpful and sometimes it is completely OK to wing it.

Buy for me it's not OK with my finances.

Especially when there are demonstrated techniques for maximizing return while minimizing risk. And those techniques consist of buy and hold of low cost index funds, yearly rebalancing, and withdraw rates consistent with my financial plan.

 

[Boho]

I completely agree that intuition can be helpful and sometimes it is completely OK to wing it.

Buy for me it's not OK with my finances.

Especially when there are demonstrated techniques for maximizing return while minimizing risk. And those techniques consist of buy and hold of low cost index funds, yearly rebalancing, and withdraw rates consistent with my financial plan.

That's what I'd recommend to people, but for myself I still feel like I should be considering more stuff, and if it doesn't work for 99% of people then that tells me just to be really careful. Some trading seem obvious enough to me and I need to try it out.

 

[imp4]

That's what I'd recommend to people, but for myself I still feel like I should be considering more stuff, and if it doesn't work for 99% of people then that tells me just to be really careful. Some trading seem obvious enough to me and I need to try it out.

Great so that makes you a 1%er!
How are your results?

 

[Boho]

Great so that makes you a 1%er!
How are your results?

Arguably not enough track record before I quit in real life. I didn't have a margin account and couldn't trade like I wanted to.

 

[imp4]

Arguably not enough track record before I quit in real life. I didn't have a margin account and couldn't trade like I wanted to.

But you started with $1,000,000 here.
How's your record?

 

[REWahoo]

But you started with $1,000,000 here.
How's your record?

He's way ahead of everyone else - see this: http://www.early-retirement.org/for...boho-contest-v2-0-a-86109-23.html#post1977243

 

[Boho]

But you started with $1,000,000 here.
How's your record?

About an 89% successful trade record. I was number one for a good amount of time but now...you can see for yourself in recent posts how I compare to nunnun who's an index investor. I have almost two years to catch up which I've been doing steadily for months.

 

[imp4]

About an 89% successful trade record. I was number one for a good amount of time but now...you can see for yourself in recent posts how I compare to nunnun who's an index investor. I have almost two years to catch up which I've been doing steadily for months.

Successful trade record
That's a made up statistic!!
The only thing that matters is $$$.
You don't get to measure any other way. Sorry!

 

[Boho]

Successful trade record
That's a made up statistic!!
The only thing that matters is $$$.
You don't get to measure any other way. Sorry!

You asked about my record. I was number one for months but I didn't keep track of how long. Then I was last. Now I'm somewhere in the middle. I think most people are interested in my position relative to nunnun. I'm behind him but currently, based on recent "made up" statistics, my gains are better than his. Feel free to throw out whatever information you want. It's all meaningful though.

 

[imp4]

You asked about my record. I was number one for months but I didn't keep track of how long. Then I was last. Now I'm somewhere in the middle. I think most people are interested in my position relative to nunnun. I'm behind him but currently, based on recent "made up" statistics, my gains are better than his. Feel free to throw out whatever information you want. It's all meaningful though.

It's both true and irrelevant.
Do you measure touchdowns in baseball also
BTW, nunnun's STR is 100%.
Just sayin.......

 

[exnavynuke]

For me it's about how well I do compared to a real world benchmark. If everyone looks at each other's trades and trades in weird ways, that just means that I won't care what their results are. As long I know I'm better than one of those index funds. And the more better, the better.

Just went back in time looking through this thread and thought this deserved to be quoted.... isn't Nunnun the "real world index" effectively? Hmm...

 

[exnavynuke]

You asked about my record. I was number one for months but I didn't keep track of how long. Then I was last. Now I'm somewhere in the middle. I think most people are interested in my position relative to nunnun. I'm behind him but currently, based on recent "made up" statistics, my gains are better than his. Feel free to throw out whatever information you want. It's all meaningful though.

According to the ranking screenshots and discussion posts, you were number one (or two at times) for 6 weeks, then you had a really bad trade that dropped you to 12th and haven't reached the top since then, FYI.

 

[Boho]

According to the ranking screenshots and discussion posts, you were number one (or two at times) for 6 weeks, then you had a really bad trade that dropped you to 12th and haven't reached the top since then, FYI.

That sounds about right but I dropped all the way to the bottom and slowly rose back up to the middle. I think the drop was fast, from a trade or two - like the number of trades that you'd say doesn't mean anything if they were big wins instead of big losers.

 

[ERD50]

That sounds about right but I dropped all the way to the bottom and slowly rose back up to the middle. I think the drop was fast, from a trade or two - like the number of trades that you'd say doesn't mean anything if they were big wins instead of big losers.

But you've had some big wins in the mix too, right? If not, why not? Or are you taking profits quickly, to lock in small gains, to free the money for the next small/quick gain? If that's the case, it's really not possible to offset the big losers with big winners, is it? So it wouldn't mean anything, if it can't happen.

Hmmm, what was someone (one of the leaders, IIRC), saying about 'exit strategy'?

I really wonder what made you think you could excel at this (yeah, yeah, I know, "it's not over yet")?

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

But you've had some big wins in the mix too, right? If not, why not? Or are you taking profits quickly, to lock in small gains, to free the money for the next small/quick gain? If that's the case, it's really not possible to offset the big losers with big winners, is it?

I've gained over $100,000 in a day, but I don't keep track.

Hmmm, what was someone (one of the leaders, IIRC), saying about 'exit strategy'?

I really wonder what made you think you could excel at this (yeah, yeah, I know, "it's not over yet")?

My real life trading history made me think that, and the circumstances of my big loss. Even now, I'm being hit by the trade war harder than nunnun because I loaded up on Honeywell but I commented within a day of buying it the I wasn't certain about it. It's good to know that I have an alarm that goes off before a drop. I just decided to take a chance on that one. Still, I bought it low and it's just a matter of waiting it out, assuming the contest is long enough.

 

[Totoro]

I've gained over $100,000 in a day, but I don't keep track.

Lower overall gains with higher volatility, what's not to like?

 

[ERD50]

... Even now, I'm being hit by the trade war harder than nunnun because I loaded up on Honeywell ....

And that is exactly what can (and often does) happen when you are concentrated rather than diversified. Are you ever going to learn?

.... Still, I bought it low and it's just a matter of waiting it out, assuming the contest is long enough.

The old saying applies, sometimes the market can be 'irrational' longer than you can stay solvent (or longer than a contest runs?).

Lower overall gains with higher volatility, what's not to like?

Time for a friendly game of Rock, Paper, Scissors, Lizard, Spock?

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

And that is exactly what can (and often does) happen when you are concentrated rather than diversified. Are you ever going to learn?

A second round of tariffs against China isn't the kind of thing that often happens. I was about even on Honeywell until that happened.

 

[ERD50]

A second round of tariffs against China isn't the kind of thing that often happens. I was about even on Honeywell until that happened.

There's always things happening in the market that don't often happen, or have never happened before. Read a history book.

Are you ever going to learn?

Apparently not.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

There's always things happening in the market that don't often happen, or have never happened before. Read a history book.

I know how it works. I'm the rock paper scissors guy. You can use the rarity of certain events in your favor. You shouldn't avoid something because something bad may happen when the alternatives are worse. You wouldn't invest at all if you did that.

 

[ERD50]

...You shouldn't avoid something because something bad may happen when the alternatives are worse. You wouldn't invest at all if you did that.

Agreed. And that's exactly why an index B&H approach has been beating you. It doesn't try to avoid (or jump on) anything. It just stays invested.

I know how it works. I'm the rock paper scissors guy. You can use the rarity of certain events in your favor. ... .

This is a contradiction. If you know how it works, and were using these events to your advantage, you would have consistently been ahead of the B&H index.

And, in case you have not noticed... you have consistently been behind the B&H index.

-ERD50

 

[SecondCor521]

Apparently not.

-ERD50

I wonder if you'll ever stop being surprised.

Perhaps somewhere on the board someone is wondering if I'll ever stop wondering about you stopping being surprised at him not learning.

Perhaps not.

/s/

Easily Amused Bystander