Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[Boho]

We should have entered 10 robots making random picks of stocks each month as a comparison. I'd bet that no one could identify the robots versus the humans just looking at the charts.

If my performance over the last 1-1/2 years or so indicates my skill then I'd outperform the S&P and robot fairly consistently each month. If you consider earlier results then obviously I'd be behind the S&P, but I'd probably still beat the robot.

 

[ERD50]

If my performance over the last 1-1/2 years or so indicates my skill then I'd outperform the S&P and robot fairly consistently each month. If you consider earlier results then obviously I'd be behind the S&P, but I'd probably still beat the robot.

The last 1 1/2 years? The contest started March 29, 2017, and it was your contest. your dates. Are you playing this contest, or a different one with a different start date? Am I in the wrong thread?


From my notes: - contest start March 29, 2017 - ends March 29, 2020

See you on April 1, 2020. Hmmm, I assume you meant to go to the end of the month, the 31st? I'll allow it.

I'd be behind the S&P, but I'd probably still beat the robot

What is you basis for this? You really think that 10 robots with 10 stocks each would not average out to pretty close to the S&P after 3 years? Why not? And why would any deviation be expected to be negative? I'd expect an equal chance of them being higher or lower. I'm pretty sure the statistics, sampling theory and law of averages, reversion to the mean, and a few other principles are with me on this one.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

The last 1 1/2 years? The contest started March 29, 2017, and it was your contest. your dates. Are you playing this contest, or a different one with a different start date? Am I in the wrong thread?

My skill most closely resembles how it's been most recently.

What is you basis for this? You really think that 10 robots with 10 stocks each would not average out to pretty close to the S&P after 3 years? Why not? And why would any deviation be expected to be negative? I'd expect an equal chance of them being higher or lower. I'm pretty sure the statistics, sampling theory and law of averages, reversion to the mean, and a few other principles are with me on this one.

I'm really close to the S&P and I'm not inclined to favor some robot's random sampling of it. My loss to it is small and theoretical, if the contest ended today. If you look at how quickly I'm gaining on it, I can beat it, unlike what a robot is likely to do. Even if you have me losing in theory based on the entire course of this contest, that doesn't mean you discount the fact that I've been outperforming the S&P fairly consistently for over a year and that my current skill is what you'd see in a future contest.

 

[ERD50]

My skill most closely resembles how it's been most recently.
...

Does it? Occam's Razor says it is just volatility.

I thought you came into this contest with a winning strategy based on you knowing how people think, and could win at Rock-Paper-Scissors?

... I'm really close to the S&P and I'm not inclined to favor some robot's random sampling of it. My loss to it is small and theoretical, ....

It's not theoretical, it's a loss. Not sure what you mean by "I'm not inclined to favor some robot's random sampling of it"? I'm not inclined to favor it or dis-favor it - logic and experience tells me that it would be hard to distinguish between 10 robot stock pickers and 10 human stock pickers. Even if you selected humans from among the Rock, Paper, Scissors winners (IOW, I doubt there is any persistence to that).

.... If you look at how quickly I'm gaining on it, I can beat it, unlike what a robot is likely to do. Even if you have me losing in theory based on the entire course of this contest, that doesn't mean you discount the fact that I've been outperforming the S&P fairly consistently for over a year and that my current skill is what you'd see in a future contest.

You have under-performed for the duration of the contest, and that is how the score is kept (wait, not really - you were competing against ALL the players, not just our B&H benchmark nunnun, who apparently was locked out due to lack of trading? OK, we use his VOO/VTI proxy).

I don't discount your recent performance, I recognize it for what it most likely is - volatility. You did poorly, then better, and most likely (but hard to say on such a small sample size), you will go back to doing poorly.

Serious question - Have you ever been educated (formally or otherwise) on probability, statistics, sampling theory? It explains much of what you go on and on about. Oh, and Occam and his razor?

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

it would be hard to distinguish between 10 robot stock pickers and 10 human stock pickers.

The robots would probably outperform the majority, but not me.

Serious question - Have you ever been educated (formally or otherwise) on probability, statistics, sampling theory? It explains much of what you go on and on about. Oh, and Occam and his razor?

I think I get the basic concept of it. Good decision making takes them into account. Maybe a guy who had reason to believe he's good at this, then ends up out performing most others, and almost matches a benchmark that's known to be extremely hard to match, while outperforming it for the latter part of the contest, is likely to beat it.

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
it would be hard to distinguish between 10 robot stock pickers and 10 human stock pickers.

The robots would probably outperform the majority, but not me. ...

Those are bold words from someone who is under-performing the S&P in this contest.

Originally Posted by ERD50 Serious question - Have you ever been educated (formally or otherwise) on probability, statistics, sampling theory? It explains much of what you go on and on about. Oh, and Occam and his razor?

I think I get the basic concept of it. Good decision making takes them into account. Maybe a guy who had reason to believe he's good at this, then ends up out performing most others, and almost matches a benchmark that's known to be extremely hard to match, while outperforming it for the latter part of the contest, is likely to beat it.

No, you don't get it. By cherry-picking a particular time frame you are ignoring inherent volatility of a less diversified portfolio. In real life, you can only spend the money that your portfolio shows, not some hypothetical "if you only look at my trades in the most recent 1 1/2 year" balance.

It's not hard to "almost match" (again, that would be "fall behind", right? "Almost match" implies close, on either the up or down side) the S&P 500. You can literally do it in your sleep. You have been shown this by nunnun - just buy some broad index fund/ETF like VOO and take a nap.

Believing has nothing to do with it. Results do.

-ERD50

 

[SecondCor521]

Serious question - Have you ever been educated (formally or otherwise) on probability, statistics, sampling theory? It explains much of what you go on and on about. Oh, and Occam and his razor?

I think I get the basic concept of it. Good decision making takes them into account. Maybe a guy who had reason to believe he's good at this, then ends up out performing most others, and almost matches a benchmark that's known to be extremely hard to match, while outperforming it for the latter part of the contest, is likely to beat it.

Translation: No.

 

[jazz4cash]

Best. Troll. Ever.
Here’s to you, Boho for entertaining me in a way no other poster could. What makes you special is your longevity and willingness to take on all comers. There was no way in hell I thought you would be around this long and I can’t believe this thread is nearing three years old. I do miss your musings in other threads. Most of all thank you for demonstrating the superiority of B&H Index investing over picking stocks for the majority of investors.

 

[Boho]

I'm investing in Japan. It's one of those cases where there seems to be good news - a trade deal today - yet the ETF is down, and I don't usually buy country specific ETFs, so if it doesn't work out I'll blame myself for changing how I trade just when I'm trying to be careful.

 

[SecondCor521]

I'm investing in Japan. It's one of those cases where there seems to be good news - a trade deal today - yet the ETF is down, and I don't usually buy country specific ETFs, so if it doesn't work out I'll blame myself for changing how I trade just when I'm trying to be careful.

Just a thought:

It could be that the price you're looking at is based on the conditions at the close of the market Monday in Japan. Due to where Japan is located longitudinally on the globe, their markets are open overnight, and their Mondays happen before our Mondays. So for example, tonight, while we're asleep, the Japanese market will be having their Tuesday.

 

[Boho]

I'm out of Japan already. I was scared so I didn't wait for my usual $1000/.25% or so return but I did well enough.

10/7/2019 2:21 PM Sell at Limit EWJ 5000 $56.63 $56.63 $283,145.01
10/7/2019 1:31 PM Buy at Market EWJ 5000 $56.54 $282,704.99

 

[exnavynuke]

Just for fun, here's the trades that our leaders have made. We can see that NFLX and SHOP are what put comsecga in the lead, Totoro has consistent wins, exnavynuke has succeeded with FAS, SSO and XLF, and DieWurst has the simplest of the leader board with some international indexes.

Player|Rank|Stock|Start|Start$|End|End/Now$|Difference|Gain/Loss
comsecga|

1​

|

DIS​

|

05/09/2017​

|

-111,780​

|

05/12/2017​

|

-109,680​

|

2,100​

|

2%​

|
|

​

|

GIMO​

|

04/24/2017​

|

283,885​

|

04/28/2017​

|

225,000​

|

-58,885​

|

-21%​

|
|

​

|

GNTX​

|

04/27/2017​

|

41,710​

|

05/26/2017​

|

38,300​

|

-3,410​

|

-8%​

|
|

​

|

IBM​

|

04/19/2017​

|

-80,860​

|

04/25/2017​

|

-80,525​

|

335​

|

0%​

|
|

​

|

INTC​

|

04/27/2017​

|

74,410​

|

05/26/2017​

|

72,560​

|

-1,850​

|

-2%​

|
|

​

|

KO​

|

04/19/2017​

|

86,710​

|

05/09/2017​

|

87,180​

|

470​

|

1%​

|
|

​

|

LULU​

|

04/19/2017​

|

104,610​

|

04/26/2017​

|

106,400​

|

1,790​

|

2%​

|
|

​

|

NFLX​

|

06/09/2017​

|

157,900​

|

Open​

|

309,810​

|

151,910​

|

96%​

|
|

​

|

SHOP​

|

04/19/2017​

|

179,750​

|

Open​

|

308,225​

|

128,475​

|

71%​

|
|

​

|

SNAP​

|

05/10/2017​

|

23,010​

|

05/11/2017​

|

17,960​

|

-5,050​

|

-22%​

|
|

​

|

SPY​

|

04/19/2017​

|

117,270​

|

06/05/2017​

|

122,005​

|

4,735​

|

4%​

|
|

​

|

SWN​

|

04/19/2017​

|

37,215​

|

05/25/2017​

|

33,940​

|

-3,275​

|

-9%​

|
|

​

|

TWTR​

|

05/10/2017​

|

36,730​

|

06/02/2017​

|

36,700​

|

-30​

|

-0%​

|
|

​

|

VTI​

|

04/19/2017​

|

120,590​

|

06/05/2017​

|

125,290​

|

4,700​

|

4%​

|

Player|Rank|Stock|Start|Start$|End|End/Now$|Difference|Gain/Loss
Totoro_ERF|

2​

|

AER​

|

05/30/2017​

|

488,430​

|

Open​

|

568,810​

|

80,380​

|

16%​

|
|

​

|

BKE​

|

05/30/2017​

|

68,210​

|

03/20/2018​

|

83,320​

|

15,110​

|

22%​

|
|

​

|

DB​

|

03/30/2017​

|

184,076​

|

05/30/2017​

|

195,516​

|

11,440​

|

6%​

|
|

​

|

MAT​

|

03/20/2018​

|

512,000​

|

Open​

|

550,800​

|

38,800​

|

8%​

|
|

​

|

MIK​

|

05/30/2017​

|

234,490​

|

03/20/2018​

|

254,640​

|

20,150​

|

9%​

|
|

​

|

PII​

|

05/30/2017​

|

252,580​

|

03/20/2018​

|

358,170​

|

105,590​

|

42%​

|

Player|Rank|Stock|Start|Start$|End|End/Now$|Difference|Gain/Loss
exnavynuke|

4​

|

FAS​

|

04/04/2017​

|

352,330​

|

Open​

|

474,740​

|

122,410​

|

35%​

|
|

​

|

NMM​

|

03/30/2017​

|

18,730​

|

07/13/2017​

|

14,490​

|

-4,240​

|

-23%​

|
|

​

|

RMP​

|

04/04/2017​

|

126,660​

|

07/13/2017​

|

99,500​

|

-27,160​

|

-21%​

|
|

​

|

SOXL​

|

04/04/2017​

|

491,605​

|

04/12/2017​

|

455,195​

|

-36,410​

|

-7%​

|
|

​

|

SSO​

|

04/18/2017​

|

468,282​

|

Open​

|

562,040​

|

93,758​

|

20%​

|
|

​

|

XLF​

|

04/18/2017​

|

230,400​

|

Open​

|

272,800​

|

42,400​

|

18%​

|

Player|Rank|Stock|Start|Start$|End|End/Now$|Difference|Gain/Loss
DieWurst|

5​

|

VEU​

|

08/31/2017​

|

201,971​

|

Open​

|

227,199​

|

25,228​

|

12%​

|
|

​

|

VNQI​

|

07/26/2017​

|

331,936​

|

Open​

|

377,884​

|

45,949​

|

14%​

|

Taking this data to see how I'd be doing, FAS I would have had 7406 and change shares if I bought at the high of the day (I was holding, so let's assume that for worst case scenario), 5,292 shares of SSO, and 9,927 shares of XLF.

Today that would be worth
FAS - $548,044 + $5,999 in dividends
SSO - $664,622 + $5,413 in dividends
XLF - $271,702 + $8,040 in dividents

Total portfolio value - $1,503,819

Still a solid 4th place right now it seems if the game hadn't kicked those of us that weren't trading frequently enough.

 

[ERD50]

Taking this data to see how I'd be doing, FAS I would have had 7406 and change shares if I bought at the high of the day (I was holding, so let's assume that for worst case scenario), 5,292 shares of SSO, and 9,927 shares of XLF.

Today that would be worth
FAS - $548,044 + $5,999 in dividends
SSO - $664,622 + $5,413 in dividends
XLF - $271,702 + $8,040 in dividents

Total portfolio value - $1,503,819

Still a solid 4th place right now it seems if the game hadn't kicked those of us that weren't trading frequently enough.

It's a shame that some players were kicked out from lack of trading. We can still measure Boho against a benchmark, but the contest is "Beat Boho", and some players surely would have done that, and you look to be doing very well. As I've said all along, I'd expect a fairly normal distribution above and below the market.

Fermion is reporting some great success in his thread. I guess we can never know if it is luck or skill, that would take quite a few trials, and even then, we'd still never know if it was persistent through different market conditions.

And of course it could be skill, we can't prove a negative. It's just tough to put much faith in it, even if/when we see it. But it can be interesting to watch.

-ERD50.

 

[ERD50]

My skill most closely resembles how it's been most recently.
.... .

I'm investing in Japan. ...

90 minutes later...

I'm out of Japan already. I was scared ...

Do you actually have a strategy? It's never been apparent.

And you shouldn't be afraid of sharing, thinking someone will copy you. That would make no sense.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Do you actually have a strategy? It's never been apparent.

And you shouldn't be afraid of sharing, thinking someone will copy you. That would make no sense.

I do many things and I'm still afraid of sharing. The most unique thing is probably how I select what stocks to look at more closely. After that it's just my decision making based on whatever information I happen to think is relevant, which I get from the news, ratings, and wherever else. I'm a little bit of a chartist but I don't know the lingo or strictly use any established charting technique. I use some stats from studies I've read, I think I'm a little bit of a value investor (I'm not clear on why anyone would buy a stock that they don't see as a good value, so maybe I'm not).

 

[ERD50]

Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post

Do you actually have a strategy? It's never been apparent. ...

I do many things and I'm still afraid of sharing. The most unique thing is probably how I select what stocks to look at more closely. After that it's just my decision making based on whatever information I happen to think is relevant, which I get from the news, ratings, and wherever else. I'm a little bit of a chartist but I don't know the lingo or strictly use any established charting technique. I use some stats from studies I've read, I think I'm a little bit of a value investor (I'm not clear on why anyone would buy a stock that they don't see as a good value, so maybe I'm not).

I hope SecondCor521 doesn't mind if I borrow his recent post for my response:

Translation: No.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

I was actually considering trading again in real life then I did the math and I wouldn't even recover the $5 fee for each trade. I need $1,000,000 and to be as fearless as I am in this contest.

 

[ERD50]

I was actually considering trading again in real life then I did the math and I wouldn't even recover the $5 fee for each trade. I need $1,000,000 and to be as fearless as I am in this contest.

You wouldn't even recover a $0.00 trading fee. You are behind the S&P fund/ETFs (and don't give me this "last 1 1/2 years" talk, you are behind, period). You can purchase VFIAX direct from Vanguard for $0.00 fee with a $3,000 minimum.

Your trading costs, time and effort have had a negative return. You can't make it up with volume.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

You wouldn't even recover a $0.00 trading fee. You are behind the S&P fund/ETFs (and don't give me this "last 1 1/2 years" talk, you are behind, period). You can purchase VFIAX direct from Vanguard for $0.00 fee with a $3,000 minimum.

Your trading costs, time and effort have had a negative return. You can't make it up with volume.

-ERD50

I've been averaging 30 trades per month recently and, aside from the S&P index funds that I buy when I have cash, I've had 100% wins in the past 2+ months. My last loss was that $20,000 pay day that you pointed out I blew from one trade but I still performed better than the S&P that month. I've been trading on margin with the rest of my portfolio in the S&P 500, so I'm doing better than an indexer who's not trading on margin, even if the index gains more than my picks.

My success rate and returns for over a year have defied chance. It wouldn't be unusual for someone to perform as well or as bad as me by luck IF you're just looking at my account value. If you look at the number of trades and my win/loss record for 1-1/2 years, that's where you see my skill.

 

[ERD50]

Talk is cheap. It doesn't add up. Win/loss numbers don't matter, totals do.

Do you actually believe the stuff you spout here?

-ERD50

 

[Chris7]

A 1-1/2 year winning strategy is not a winning strategy.

cd :O)

 

[SecondCor521]

I've been averaging 30 trades per month recently and, aside from the S&P index funds that I buy when I have cash, I've had 100% wins in the past 2+ months. My last loss was that $20,000 pay day that you pointed out I blew from one trade but I still performed better than the S&P that month. I've been trading on margin with the rest of my portfolio in the S&P 500, so I'm doing better than an indexer who's not trading on margin, even if the index gains more than my picks.

My success rate and returns for over a year have defied chance. It wouldn't be unusual for someone to perform as well or as bad as me by luck IF you're just looking at my account value. If you look at the number of trades and my win/loss record for 1-1/2 years, that's where you see my skill.

Are you familiar with the term "cherrypicking"? Do you understand that cherrypicking can result in higher returns than not doing so? Do you recognize that is what you are doing here?

Leverage magnifies returns, both good and bad. So stating that you're doing better with leverage when you've had some wins is reflecting a math fact, not any additional argument in favor of your skill as a stock picker.

Even with leverage, rock-paper-scissors skill, a brief detour into a Japanese ETF, and lots and lots of trades, some or even most of which have been successful, you're still behind someone who just bought the index.

 

[Boho]

This sounds like a good book. "The importance of trends cannot be overlooked."

 

[REWahoo]

We've come full circle: from "H-o-c-omania" to "Bohomania".

 

[pb4uski]

Talk is cheap. It doesn't add up. Win/loss numbers don't matter, totals do.

Do you actually believe the stuff you spout here?

-ERD50

ERD... can you check my math please?

18 months ended Sept 30, 2019.... initial investment $1 million

Boho*..........$1,282,084.... 18.0% annually
VFIAX**.......$1,322,882.... 20.5% annually... 13.8% better than Boho
VTSMX**......$1,300,194.... 19.1% annually.... 6.1% better than Boho

Conclusion: Index funds kick Boho badly... not even close!

* source: Post #1468
** source Portfolio Visualizer https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com...ocation2_2=100&total1=100&total2=100&total3=0