Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[ERD50]

I think I found it.

A Combination of Dopamine Genes Predicts Success by Professional Wall Street Traders



I did 23andme. I should check.

I wonder if 23andme will show a gene for Rock, Paper, Scissors ability?

EHTH worked out well. I'm trying to sell MSGN now at a profit but I can only sell 1/4 of it because of volume restrictions. I'm selling it at market. I bought more yesterday and now I have 30000 shares.

So let's see how you do at our monthly update, one week from now. "good trades" don't mean much, you need to do good on average. So far, you are not. You had some bad trades, too.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

So I bought MSGN with two trades but it took two trades just to sell half, then the price dropped and I stopped selling so I'm stuck with it for now.

 

[ERD50]

So I bought MSGN with two trades but it took two trades just to sell half, then the price dropped and I stopped selling so I'm stuck with it for now.

Did you manage to sell the other half?

MSGN up ~ $2 (14%) today on share buyback news.

If you did hang on to some, it will help close the gap with our benchmark. But obviously, it had nothing to do with skill, since you intended to sell it all before this rise.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Did you manage to sell the other half?

MSGN up ~ $2 (14%) today on share buyback news.

If you did hang on to some, it will help close the gap with our benchmark. But obviously, it had nothing to do with skill, since you intended to sell it all before this rise.

-ERD50

Yes. Here are my trades for August:

 

[ransil]

I have been getting a 500 error when i try to get into my portfolio, i can get into everyone elses portfoil, just mot mine.

 

[Boho]

I have been getting a 500 error when i try to get into my portfolio, i can get into everyone elses portfoil, just mot mine.

I get the same for your portfolio.

 

[bolt]

Last price 8/29th/19. --Laborday3dayweekend.
AMD
TEVA

All will be buy & holds.
I'll simply record data and assimilate it at the contests end date. We're all just screwing around right?

I will update before 9/1/19-2dayweekend.

 

[Boho]

August:

Current Rank	Previous day's rank	Account Value (USD)	Today's change in value	Overall%
1. comsecga	1	$3,344,660.61	($1,775.40)	234.47%
2. kite_rider	2	$2,683,744.96	$2,635.00	168.37%
3. Spudd	3	$2,564,382.23	$0.00	156.44%
4. cfahey27	4	$1,258,409.67	$1,671.50	25.84%
5. BohoII	5	$1,239,618.65	$26,676.63	23.96%
6. lbymfreddie	6	$1,196,206.76	$2,417.02	19.62%
7. wmc1000	7	$1,189,394.77	$3,913.47	18.94%
8. nvestysly	9	$1,128,064.16	$3,242.69	12.81%
9. wrd58	8	$1,121,477.14	($4,059.00)	12.15%
10. easysurfer	10	$1,115,007.31	$970.06	11.50%
11. DieWurst	11	$1,107,975.75	$8,220.20	10.80%
12. covert1	12	$1,024,439.74	$11,445.00	2.44%
13. t3ztam3nt	14	$1,003,665.51	($2.00)	0.37%
14. consvgmbl	15	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
15. exnavynuke	17	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
16. monitorLizzy	16	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
17. dixonge	18	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
18. jmil07	19	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
19. secondcor521	20	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
20. guestperson	21	$998,995.01	$325.00	-0.10%
21. RiskyBusinessC2	13	$998,878.22	($9,600.00)	-0.11%
22. natetheb	22	$938,324.11	($2,221.70)	-6.17%
23. KCScubaSteve	23	$895,097.20	$4,314.28	-10.49%
24. sengsational	24	$841,703.30	$5,846.00	-15.83%
25. ransil	25	$792,851.18	($7,620.39)	-20.71%
26. lawrencewendall	26	$723,615.05	$2,673.04	-27.64%

 

[ERD50]

For August, the measure of Boho versus what nunnun would be doing as our Buy & Hold proxy, by my calculations is:



Boho__: $1,239,619
nunnun: $1,290,856

Leaving Boho $51,237 behind. This was a relatively good month for Boho, he closed the gap, but ~ 1/3rd of that gain was unintended, as he tried to sell MSGN before the sudden (and obviously, unforeseen by him) rise it saw on Friday, from a buyback announcement.

About $21,700 of this months gain would not have happened if his sale went through as intended.

Seven months left to the contest, can Boho beat a do-nothing B&H investor? Perhaps, since he has lagged during much of the game, a random walk of volatility and regression to the mean could have him swinging up towards the end.

Or not.

And just to be clear, "closing the gap" is another term for... "losing". Sometimes, someone forgets the name of the game is "Beat Boho". There is only one measure of that - portfolio balance.


-ERD50

 

[Boho]

LOPE worked out but the see saw is making me consider sticking with large caps.

 

[Boho]

My Account Value (USD) $1,291,370.05
Cash $284.60

I think that's about $43,398 and 1.26%/year behind SPY with over 6 months left.

 

[ERD50]

My Account Value (USD) $1,291,370.05
Cash $284.60

I think that's about $43,398 and 1.26%/year behind SPY with over 6 months left.

Math sounds about right. But to put it another way, you are ~ 4.34% behind someone who did absolutely nothing other than buy a broad market index fund and forget about it.

It's only the 17th of the month, did you want to remind us you are still behind the 'market', let alone the top players?

I'll add my usual caveat - with a less diversified portfolio, anything can happen. You might pop up before the end of the contest, but I don't see where that proves anything.

I'll throw out my challenge again - start a contest where the objective is to lose money. If the rules are that you can't go on margin or play options (it would be easy to lose everything buying a LOT of an OTM call), then it should be just as hard to pick losers as winners. I predict the usual relatively normal distribution of outcomes.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

It's only the 17th of the month, did you want to remind us you are still behind the 'market', let alone the top players?

I made several trades this month that all worked out and the last one had me on maximum margin so I was thinking I may be ahead of the S&P if not nunnun's mix of index funds but not yet. As long as I did the math I figured I'd post it. At the end people are going to care more about the S&P than nunnun. That's my real target.

 

[ERD50]

I made several trades this month that all worked out and the last one had me on maximum margin so I was thinking I may be ahead of the S&P if not nunnun's mix of index funds but not yet. As long as I did the math I figured I'd post it. At the end people are going to care more about the S&P than nunnun. That's my real target.

You just moved the goalposts.

The name of the contest is "Beat Boho", not "can Boho beat the market". IIRC, several other players are far ahead of you.

But as always, the 'market' is a good benchmark for stock pickers. If you can't reliably beat it, what's the point?

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

I was looking through replies to Any known bugs with Yahoo Finance adjusted close data?. Someone should estimate a margin of error. This contest may be close enough for the MOE to matter when comparing to the S&P 500.

 

[Boho]

September: $1,280,210.49, rank: 5

 

[ERD50]

September: $1,280,210.49, rank: 5

I'm getting $1,315,078 for a VOO/VTI blend. You've closed the gap, but are still $34,868 behind our napping benchmark.

Catching up, but the other times you've closed the gap 3-4 months in a row, it was followed by a big, bad month. That old volatility will getcha (sometimes, eventually?)!

I was looking through replies to Any known bugs with Yahoo Finance adjusted close data?. Someone should estimate a margin of error. This contest may be close enough for the MOE to matter when comparing to the S&P 500.

Well, as a sanity check, I went to Portfolio Analyzer (www.portfoliovisualizer.com). You can only pick start/end months, so the start is a few days off. They don't have today's up there, but looking at AUG EOM, it sure looks close. I get (up to AUG 2019)

129.08%/VOO and 128.35%/VTI; << My Calc
129.77%/VOO and 128.12%/VTI. << Portfolio Visualizer

SHORT LINK to data: http://bit.ly/2nYsRup

I would not try to calculate a margin of error, the errors are either there or not. We can verify through other sources if a dividend was missed.


-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Somehow I gained a little since I last posted. I guess it takes a few hours after the close for the results to be accurate.

Current Rank	Previous day's rank	Account Value (USD)	Today's change in value	Overall%
1. comsecga	1	$3,057,532.41	$35,199.40	205.75%
2. Spudd	2	$2,564,382.23	$0.00	156.44%
3. kite_rider	3	$2,240,786.66	($105,903.30)	124.08%
4. cfahey27	4	$1,301,845.67	$16,649.00	30.18%
5. BohoII	5	$1,282,084.51	$8,143.74	28.21%
6. wmc1000	6	$1,254,644.07	$7,772.41	25.46%
7. lbymfreddie	7	$1,231,107.72	$9,288.98	23.11%
8. nvestysly	8	$1,163,958.64	$3,874.02	16.40%
9. DieWurst	9	$1,149,895.31	$6,037.40	14.99%
10. wrd58	10	$1,132,287.14	$4,363.50	13.23%
11. easysurfer	11	$1,124,384.31	$3,248.44	12.44%
12. covert1	12	$1,092,049.74	$2,580.00	9.20%
13. RiskyBusinessC2	13	$1,008,178.22	$3,600.00	0.82%
14. guestperson	14	$1,004,750.01	$1,090.00	0.48%
15. jmil07	15	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
16. consvgmbl	16	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
17. dixonge	17	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
18. exnavynuke	18	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
19. secondcor521	19	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
20. monitorLizzy	20	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
21. natetheb	21	$945,047.25	($562.24)	-5.50%
22. KCScubaSteve	22	$937,496.48	$9,223.40	-6.25%
23. sengsational	23	$867,231.35	$5,496.20	-13.28%
24. ransil	24	$804,753.95	($1,818.55)	-19.52%
25. lawrencewendall	25	$769,353.20	$3,437.33	-23.06%

 

[nvestysly]

Investopedia has stopped posting dividends to my cash account. Am I overlooking something? I have to admit I don't pay much attention to this thread but the software (web page) definitely is not user friendly in my case.

I started participating in this "game" hoping to have my dividends automatically reinvested. My plan was to buy 20 stocks, $50,000 each, let them ride, no meddling and see what happens.

Two things are working against me. 1) I didn't start on the same day that many of you started, not even the same week, not even the same month and that will ultimately impact the results of my portfolio. 2) Investopedia doesn't provide a mechanism to automatically reinvest dividends so I have to manually do some form of reinvestment.

Item 2 has become a significant hindrance. After beginning the game I simply waited for dividends to be posted as cash and every other month or so reinvested into one or more stocks that had declined over time. Sort of a rebalancing approach, doubling down, whatever you want to call it. I did it manually and I didn't mind. I still plan to stick with the ride it out approach.

But Investopedia doesn't seem to be posting any dividends to my account. I haven't had any cash to reinvest for months. My strategy, if you can call it that, isn't going to work if there are no dividends to reinvest.

So I've resigned myself to a different version of riding it out. The do absolutely nothing approach. Oh well.

 

[Boho]

Random update:

If I did this right, I'm less than 1% behind the S&P 500 per year on average.

Theoretical SPY investor: $1,304,337.60
My account value is $1,274,017.37 ($30,320.23 behind SPY)
Average monthly gain difference: $30,320.23 / 30.25 months = $1,002.32
Average yearly gain difference: $1,002.32 * 12 = $12,027.86
Percent difference to date: (I used this): 2.35%
Average monthly percentage difference: 2.35% / 30.25 months = .078%
Average yearly percentage difference: .078 * 12 = .93%

 

[ERD50]

If I did this right, ...

I think EOM updates are sufficient. I'm not going to bother checking your numbers more often than that.

You could create a spreadsheet and chart your daily deltas, it's not rocket science.

You are still behind a do-nothing Buy & Hold investor, after all the work you've done. A negative per hour rate.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

I think EOM updates are sufficient. I'm not going to bother checking your numbers more often than that.

You could create a spreadsheet and chart your daily deltas, it's not rocket science.

You are still behind a do-nothing Buy & Hold investor, after all the work you've done. A negative per hour rate.

-ERD50

You don't even do the S&P 500. I consider myself the S&P tracker and you're the "some guy's passive portfolio" tracker.

 

[ERD50]

You don't even do the S&P 500. I consider myself the S&P tracker and you're the "some guy's passive portfolio" tracker.

A distinction with (almost) no difference. Ya' got anything else? You are behind regardless.

"some guy's passive portfolio" is one half VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)) and one half VTI (Total Market, which is dominated by S&P 500). A blend is going to track S&P so very close:


-ERD50

 

[Boho]

A distinction with (almost) no difference. Ya' got anything else? You are behind regardless.

"some guy's passive portfolio" is one half VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)) and one half VTI (Total Market, which is dominated by S&P 500). A blend is going to track S&P so very close:


-ERD50

I'm trading specifically to beat the S&P 500. Comparing my performance with something that could differ from the S&P 500 by this much is needlessly inaccurate, and significantly inaccurate considering how close I am:

 

[ERD50]

I'm trading specifically to beat the S&P 500. Comparing my performance with something that could differ from the S&P 500 by this much is needlessly inaccurate, and significantly inaccurate considering how close I am:

Not after you average the two, as nunnun has done. Regardless, you are losing compared to SPY, and you are losing compared to VTI, and (obviously mathematically) you are losing to our passive Buy & Hold investor who split his stash between SPY and VTI Total Market.

When you say "close" you mean "behind", right? As in you are losing, right? I always find it somewhat amusing when someone who is behind uses the word "close", but when they are ahead, they will say they are ahead, not "close".


And remember, the contest is "Beat Boho", not "beat SPY" anyhow. But I do think that SPY, or some reasonable proxy like VTI are what is important. I will stand behind my consistent and original statement - you have approximately a 50/50 chance of beating SPY or VTI at the end of this game. Nothing will really be proven one way or the other. The only thing that has been proven is that you have not been able to consistently beat the market.

We should have entered 10 robots making random picks of stocks each month as a comparison. I'd bet that no one could identify the robots versus the humans just looking at the charts.

Hmmm, maybe I'll start that contest next month. Make up 10 robots, they randomly buy 10 stocks from the S&P, and randomly replace one each month. Hmmm, I guess we could back test that?

-ERD50