Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[Fermion]

I'll have proven whatever there is to prove near the end and I'll feel free to play more for fun so I'm looking forward to it. I may end up ahead until the last week of the contest.

For the next contest I'm thinking of having people choose a stock for me and I'll go the entire contest trading only that stock.

Cool! I will choose you something good like Radio Shack or Sears.

 

[easysurfer]

I'll have proven whatever there is to prove near the end and I'll feel free to play more for fun so I'm looking forward to it. I may end up ahead until the last week of the contest.

For the next contest I'm thinking of having people choose a stock for me and I'll go the entire contest trading only that stock.

Yes, you may end up ahead until the last week of the contest.

Or not . That's why gotta play til the end. To weed out the contenders vs pretenders .

 

[Totoro]

For the next contest I'm thinking of having people choose a stock for me and I'll go the entire contest trading only that stock.

With your hands tied around your back?

 

[easysurfer]

I'll post the contest standings around major holidays for those not competing but wanting to keep up with the contest. July 4th, I'm not around but tomorrow is Fathers day.

Boho is in 1st place with some separation. There's tighter race for 2nd, 3rd, 4th.

nunnun our voluntary baseline is in 5th.

I'm in the lower half in 10th place .

Spudd has fallen to the bottom in last place.

 

[Boho]

In case someone wants to see updates at the typical intervals, we're at the three month mark so here are the rankings.

I also looked at the difference between my account value and second place and thought of what I could buy. I like the 2017 Hyundai Sonata. Here's one that seems to be the color of money. If it's just a reflection from the trees I'll only drive where there are trees until I win enough for a custom color.

 

[sengsational]

If you were really playing with a cool million, you'd never be seen in a Hyundai! You would have to allocation the difference to the maintenance budget for your garage full of Jaguars.

 

[Boho]

This is the kind of thing I look for so I have a limit order for almost $500,000 in Rite Aid on Monday. There seems to be a big upside but I don't plan on holding it for long.

 

[nun]

I'll post the contest standings around major holidays for those not competing but wanting to keep up with the contest. July 4th, I'm not around but tomorrow is Fathers day.

Boho is in 1st place with some separation. There's tighter race for 2nd, 3rd, 4th.

nunnun our voluntary baseline is in 5th.

I'm in the lower half in 10th place .

Spudd has fallen to the bottom in last place.

I'm doing slightly better than I expected.......at this stage put one in the win column for indexing and sitting down with your feet up.

 

[Totoro]

Did Boho just tank spectacularly?

 

[exnavynuke]

Did Boho just tank spectacularly?

He's down 14.x% on Rite Aid so far. Not sure what his stop is at on that one.. but apparently it's pretty loose.

 

[Boho]

Did Boho just tank spectacularly?

The last time someone pointed that out, I gained $100,000 the next day.

As I said, I bought Rite Aid (RAD). Their merger failed, their stock dropped, and I bought without worrying about whether it's done dropping. Some people wait for it to start rising before buying but I didn't bother. It's not done dropping yet but it's teetering off. They have a new deal in the works that's "expected to close within six months" but hopefully I won't have to wait that long for it to rise.

 

[Totoro]

Seems a shrewd tactic then would be for me to now sell off all and start mirroring you. That way I can achieve this threads goal for sure: "Beat Boho"

Looking forward to your total triumph at any case.

 

[easysurfer]

Just got back from a trip and checking here see that the leaderboard looks a bit different from when I left. Getting interesting, I see....

 

[ERD50]

Just got back from a trip and checking here see that the leaderboard looks a bit different from when I left. Getting interesting, I see....

Can you post an update for us gawkers? - ERD50

 

[easysurfer]

Can you post an update for us gawkers? - ERD50

Here you go...

 

[Boho]

I'll be lower than that in the morning (oops, maybe higher because it went up after hours) and who knows what in the coming days. I have $490,172.00 of a volatile stock. Best to sign up or you could be missing big moves every day.

 

[ERD50]

Here you go...

Thanks, quite a spread there. I wonder how that would compare with a random pick of 15 stocks from the Russel 2000? But it's interesting that the median (tossing out nun) is ~ 1.8% points below nun. So the group appears on whole to have done worse than a dart throwing group?

Maybe, too small a sample and too short a time to tell much (other than I plan to stick to broad-based index funds anyway!).

-ERD50

 

[Lawrencewendall]

over 12k in dividends for June after paying margin interest. That's 14.4% returns annualized. I can handle that.

 

[RISP]

I'll be lower than that in the morning (oops, maybe higher because it went up after hours) and who knows what in the coming days. I have $490,172.00 of a volatile stock. Best to sign up or you could be missing big moves every day.

If I'm not mistaken, Boho will start the day 15th out of 16. Only Spudd is behind him, being down ~10% on a relatively concentrated portfolio of 440,000$ of BBRY (Blackberry Limited), plus a couple thousand in options.

Boho, any plans when to cut your losses in RAD, or will you ride it down all the way if the slide continues? Of course, if you trust in your analysis, you could also double down... RAD1725H2.5 could be an interesting option, though the trading volume is likely too low for your purposes.

 

[Boho]

Boho, any plans when to cut your losses in RAD, or will you ride it down all the way if the slide continues? Of course, if you trust in your analysis, you could also double down... RAD1725H2.5 could be an interesting option, though the trading volume is likely too low for your purposes.

With RAD? No. I've heard the chances are 50/50 of the new deal going through within the 6 months that the government has to approve it. Seems to me Rite Aid thought the first deal was reasonable, or else analysts would have been saying it would probably fail. With whatever guidance they got from the rejection, they're able to increase the chances with this new deal, so I'm betting it will happen. I read that approval would boost the stock whether it works out for Rite Aid in the long run or not, which I already knew. I think it's likely I'll gain $100,000 within 6 months from RAD.

Now, ARNA, which I just bought, is another story. I'm not as careful as I was in the beginning of the contest, but I think it's volatile enough to go up a bit so I can make a little. I was planning to sell it at the slightest increase all along but I discovered you can't sell too soon after you buy, and the other delays effect my trades too. The remedy for this is just to be careful again.

 

[RISP]

With RAD? No. I've heard the chances are 50/50 of the new deal going through within the 6 months that the government has to approve it. Seems to me Rite Aid thought the first deal was reasonable, or else analysts would have been saying it would probably fail. With whatever guidance they got from the rejection, they're able to increase the chances with this new deal, so I'm betting it will happen. I read that approval would boost the stock whether it works out for Rite Aid in the long run or not, which I already knew. I think it's likely I'll gain $100,000 within 6 months from RAD.

So you are saying there's a 50% chance you just bet the farm on a lemon. RAD is losing money, it's still not even remotely cheap (4.2 price/book, forward PE of 45), and deeply in debt.

I also do not understand your decision to buy it from a game theory viewpoint. You had a comfortable lead after making a couple of limited risk moves. Why didn't you keep doing what you were doing? Did you get bored with our little competition this quickly?

 

[Boho]

So you are saying there's a 50% chance you just bet the farm on a lemon. RAD is losing money, it's still not even remotely cheap (4.2 price/book, forward PE of 45), and deeply in debt.

There are mixed opinions on whether it's a good deal. I think I bought about 24 hours after its crash started so I'm calling that low even though it got lower. If the deal is approved, I'm expecting it to go significantly higher than my buy price. As I said, I think the odds are greater than 50%. I've read where the analyst speaks of the deal happening as a "when" and I've heard another say 50/50. I think the odds are something in between. I don't look at p/e. I look at the big-picture valuations from analysts and I look at the trading pattern and prices and news.

I also do not understand your decision to buy it from a game theory viewpoint. You had a comfortable lead after making a couple of limited risk moves. Why didn't you keep doing what you were doing? Did you get bored with our little competition this quickly?

I was buying largely what I bought in real life, which I researched carefully, but in May I bought DRAD using a slightly different strategy because, though I did great in April, some trades were close and I decided to hold longer when I thought the stock was still undervalued. I also started bidding lower. DRAD stayed way undervalued, and now I'm waiting for the next financial report. Hopefully I'll sell at that time and start trading again and my real life research will help me in the contest.

Also, I took a chance by setting my limit order as high as I did with RAD because it wasn't a microcap like I'd been used to buying on drops and I thought the prices would make more sense and settle in faster. It was somewhat better than the microcaps I've delt with but there was still a downward momentum for days. I'm still optimistic though.

With ARNA, I have to see what people are saying about the chances of their drug working out. I just bought on a whim when I saw a headline and the skyrocketing prices. I saw the high was somewhat persistent and I set my limit lower but not low enough so I'm probably forced to wait for more good news about their drug which I currently know nothing about.

 

[Boho]

With ARNA, I have to see what people are saying about the chances of their drug working out.

From Barron's "As it pertains to ralinepag in [pulmonary arterial hypertension], we are raising our probability of success (PoS) to 50% (from 30% previously), which raises our PT to $53/shr." I bought at $26.87 and it's now $24.28.

So analysts give my two biggest holdings the same 50/50 probability of success.

 

[ERD50]

... So analysts give my two biggest holdings the same 50/50 probability of success.

I am (only a little) curious how a strategy that relies on the same analysts 'the market' has access to can be expected to do better than 'the market'?

With individual stocks, an investor could easily do far better or far worse than averages, so anything is possible. But I can't see why out-performance should be expected. Or are you playing Rock Paper Scissors with these analysts behind the scenes?

-ERD50

 

[exnavynuke]

From Barron's "As it pertains to ralinepag in [pulmonary arterial hypertension], we are raising our probability of success (PoS) to 50% (from 30% previously), which raises our PT to $53/shr." I bought at $26.87 and it's now $24.28.

So analysts give my two biggest holdings the same 50/50 probability of success.

So, you're "putting it on black" as your investment strategy?