Thoughts on TESLA

[Hamlet]

The good news for TSLA just keeps on going.... Maybe Musk will soon learn that SEC doesn't have a sense of humor.

Tesla shares fall after SEC asks judge to hold Elon Musk in contempt for violating deal

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/25/tes...elon-musk-in-contempt-for-violating-deal.html

Market didn't like the "good" news, dropped $10 in after market.View attachment 30904

Yeah, I’m starting to think he’s going to have to have a conversation my buddy had with a judge after his third speeding ticket in less than a year. He gave my buddy a 30 day suspended sentence and told him it would be cleared if he got through the next year without another ticket. My buddy got real careful about speeding after that

Engaging in securities fraud and then not adhering to the terms of the settlement needs a consequence that will discourage this behavior in the future.

 

[NW-Bound]

This time, I think Musk simply goofed, and did not intend to mislead about the car production rate. He corrected himself right away with another tweet.

Still, I think he should just delete his account and not make any more post.

 

[bobandsherry]

This time, I think Musk simply goofed, and did not intend to mislead about the car production rate. He corrected himself right away with another tweet.

Still, I think he should just delete his account and not make any more post.

Agree on him just deleting his account. But SEC probably more perturbed that Musk is basically ignoring the last settlement that stated Musk was supposed to get pre-approval for future tweets. He obviously isn't following this part of the agreement and giving the one finger salute to the SEC.

With $10+ drop after hours, guess we'll see how investors further react tomorrow. Those who bought on last few dips are still out of the money, so maybe third time may be the charm.

 

[bobandsherry]

Found this to be an interesting read with analysis of Tesla income and profits. Also review on China and Europe.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4243921-tesla-factors-dragging-share-price

 

[ERD50]

Interesting way to judge the success of an investment. I never claimed that Tesla outperformed any other investment over the past two years. I stated a simple fact, Tesla stock would be worth no less than it is worth today (and, yes, that is how I measure "worse off" when it comes to money). ...

Sigh. This is beyond tiresome.

Once again, you make a statement, it is challenged, you then change what you said, but apply our original challenge to your revised statement and claim we are 'wrong' and/or you were 'right'.

I'm not gonna bother with the quotes, if anyone is interested (I don't know why they would be), they can look back at posts 2600, 2585, 2580, 2577, and 2575 and judge for themselves.

... By your logic, someone who owned an S&P index fund over the past two years is "worse off" because they only made 20% while another investment returned 21% over the same period. This is a game you can never win because there will always be a better investment (in hindsight). Are you worse off for owning the S&P index fund over the past two years?

Hindsight is 20/20. If you think the S&P index fund is the investment to own, more power to you. I suggest you start another thread that sings the virtues and low risk of the S&P fund. This is a thread about the future of Tesla stock.

You have a lot to learn (and probably "un-learn") as an investor. For your own sake, study up on the term "benchmark".

A benchmark is not chosen in hindsight!

Performance is relative. Risk is relative. It is all relative. Sigh.

-ERD50

 

[Ronstar]

Saw a Model S a few days ago on a bumpy dirt 4wd trail. I was impressed. It had to be dragging bottom through some of the ruts.

 

[NW-Bound]

... and the bottom of these cars is the lithium battery pack, which when punctured creates nice firework.

Somebody is either not too smart, or a rich thrill seeker.

 

[Ronstar]

Fireworks would have been exciting. Surprised there wasn’t any. Although mostly dirt, the road/trail had some jagged rocks sticking up that could easily puncture a battery. Maybe the Model S owner had skid plates installed.

 

[oneill225]

Sigh. This is beyond tiresome.

Agreed.

Once again, you make a statement, it is challenged, you then change what you said, but apply our original challenge to your revised statement and claim we are 'wrong' and/or you were 'right'.
I'm not gonna bother with the quotes, if anyone is interested (I don't know why they would be), they can look back at posts 2600, 2585, 2580, 2577, and 2575 and judge for themselves.

I don't even know what "challenge" you think I should answer. If it is your position that someone is "worse off" for buying Tesla stock two years ago, then I disagree. The stock is worth more, today. Were the stock lower, today, I would agree with you. Does not seem very controversial or worthy of a "challenge". Maybe an "agree to disagree".

You have a lot to learn (and probably "un-learn") as an investor. For your own sake, study up on the term "benchmark".
A benchmark is not chosen in hindsight!
Performance is relative. Risk is relative. It is all relative. Sigh.

I am always willing to learn. Stating that everything is relative, seems rather obvious, however. I do not consider it very useful to evaluate the future of Tesla stock by looking backwards to find another investment that out performed TSLA during some arbitrary time period. We could play the relativity game with any investment to find our desired outcome. I am much more interested in how TSLA will perform going forward. Past performance is no indicator of future performance.

Do you have any input on how Tesla stock will perform going forward, or are you simply advocating against anything other than low risk, index funds?

 

[oneill225]

Improvements

This video highlights some of the improvements that Tesla is implementing over time. I think it is a good rebuttal to those who claim Tesla does not care enough about quality control or workmanship:

https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-early-late-vin/

 

[ERD50]

Agreed.



I don't even know what "challenge" you think I should answer. If it is your position that someone is "worse off" for buying Tesla stock two years ago, then I disagree. The stock is worth more, today. Were the stock lower, today, I would agree with you. Does not seem very controversial or worthy of a "challenge". Maybe an "agree to disagree".



I am always willing to learn. Stating that everything is relative, seems rather obvious, however. I do not consider it very useful to evaluate the future of Tesla stock by looking backwards to find another investment that out performed TSLA during some arbitrary time period. We could play the relativity game with any investment to find our desired outcome. I am much more interested in how TSLA will perform going forward. Past performance is no indicator of future performance.

Do you have any input on how Tesla stock will perform going forward, or are you simply advocating against anything other than low risk, index funds?

This is why I say "tiresome". I've already explained it, it is basic, basic, basic to investing.

There is literally nothing I can think of to say to further explain it. I've already said it, plain as day. I'd only be repeating myself - tiresome.

If you are genuinely interested, go back and re-read what I wrote. The answers to the above are all there.

So I will move on from this exchange. It appears you either cannot understand, or are unwilling to understand.

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

This video highlights some of the improvements that Tesla is implementing over time. I think it is a good rebuttal to those who claim Tesla does not care enough about quality control or workmanship:

https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-early-late-vin/

Where are the posts of "those who claim Tesla does not care enough about quality control or workmanship"? Sounds like another straw-man, unless it escapes my memory. Show us.

I recall saying that being in "production hell" and pushing, pushing to get to 5,000 a week, when 10,000 was promised, typically is a scenario where quality is negatively affected. I worked in production support, I know, I've lived it.

That's not the same as saying Tesla "doesn't care" about quality.

I suspect Tesla will have higher warranty costs on the M3 models produced during "production hell". That's a hit to the bottom line. There is no positive spin to it.

Are they getting better? I sure hope so, that would be expected. That's not news.

-ERD50

 

[oneill225]

Where are the posts of "those who claim Tesla does not care enough about quality control or workmanship"? Sounds like another straw-man, unless it escapes my memory. Show us.
I recall saying that being in "production hell" and pushing, pushing to get to 5,000 a week, when 10,000 was promised, typically is a scenario where quality is negatively affected. I worked in production support, I know, I've lived it.
That's not the same as saying Tesla "doesn't care" about quality.
I suspect Tesla will have higher warranty costs on the M3 models produced during "production hell". That's a hit to the bottom line. There is no positive spin to it.
Are they getting better? I sure hope so, that would be expected. That's not news.
-ERD50

By the way Tesla outperformed the S&P Index benchmark from 3/1/17 to today (21.76% to 17.91%). Looks like those S&P Index holders will be "worse off" in a couple of days. Damn relativity.

 

[braumeister]

By the way Tesla outperformed the S&P Index benchmark.

Why would anyone consider the S&P 500 index to be a benchmark for TSLA?

 

[oneill225]

Why would anyone consider the S&P 500 index to be a benchmark for TSLA?

That is my point. Such comparisons tell us very little (or nothing) about Tesla's future stock prices. Some on this site have used the comparative performance of the S&P (better than TSLA over certain time periods) as some form of proof that Tesla stock buyers could do better with their money.

 

[ERD50]

Why would anyone consider the S&P 500 index to be a benchmark for TSLA?

It's a benchmark for an equity investor. What's the point in investing in individual stocks if they don't beat the market?

-ERD50

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Fireworks would have been exciting. Surprised there wasn’t any. Although mostly dirt, the road/trail had some jagged rocks sticking up that could easily puncture a battery. Maybe the Model S owner had skid plates installed.

Tesla added titanium and aluminum shields underneath their vehicles to prevent puncturing the batteries. This started in 2014.

 

[gcgang]

Was looking at the Model 3(the "budget" version?).

Base price, $35k, $11k add on for "extended" battery. I asked what this meant. He said it had range of 300 miles. I asked what the non-extended, non$11k, battery's range was. He said 200 miles. I said, great. On Maui, tough to drive 200 miles. He said, yes, but no one on the mainland wants it, so they're not making it and it's not available.

Sigh.

 

[bobandsherry]

Where are the posts of "those who claim Tesla does not care enough about quality control or workmanship"? Sounds like another straw-man, unless it escapes my memory. Show us.



I recall saying that being in "production hell" and pushing, pushing to get to 5,000 a week, when 10,000 was promised, typically is a scenario where quality is negatively affected. I worked in production support, I know, I've lived it.



That's not the same as saying Tesla "doesn't care" about quality.



I suspect Tesla will have higher warranty costs on the M3 models produced during "production hell". That's a hit to the bottom line. There is no positive spin to it.



Are they getting better? I sure hope so, that would be expected. That's not news.



-ERD50

I noticed that he once again failed to answer your specific question. Seems he just says anything without any evidence to support what he said.

 

[oneill225]

Was looking at the Model 3(the "budget" version?).
Base price, $35k, $11k add on for "extended" battery. I asked what this meant. He said it had range of 300 miles. I asked what the non-extended, non$11k, battery's range was. He said 200 miles. I said, great. On Maui, tough to drive 200 miles. He said, yes, but no one on the mainland wants it, so they're not making it and it's not available.Sigh.

That's a little confusing.

I believe they are currently producing a 264 mile (midrange) and 310 mile (extended) range Model 3. The base $35k model isn't expected for several months and no range has been provided for that future model.

The price on the cheapest available Model 3 is currently $42,900 before any incentives/discounts. Here is a link to Tesla's Model 3 web page:

https://3.tesla.com/model3/design?#battery

 

[Texas Proud]

As to the fire on the Tesla and comparing them to the 'high' number from ICE cars... that is a strawman...


You have to compare per 100,000 miles to compare equally... and you also have to compare based on the model year as an old ICE car probably has a higher chance of having a fire...


I do not have any of these stats, but it would be interesting to see...


As an example.... I remember reading that the Concord was the safest passenger plane prior to the crash in France and after the crash it was one of the worst... IOW, it had so few passenger miles just one crash made it the 'worst' in deaths per 100,000 km...

 

[Ready]

Was looking at the Model 3(the "budget" version?).

Base price, $35k, $11k add on for "extended" battery. I asked what this meant. He said it had range of 300 miles. I asked what the non-extended, non$11k, battery's range was. He said 200 miles. I said, great. On Maui, tough to drive 200 miles. He said, yes, but no one on the mainland wants it, so they're not making it and it's not available.

Sigh.

I think he was just making stuff up here. It’s been well documented that there is a significant demand for a $35K Tesla, but it is not being produced because Tesla can not build one for $35K and make a profit on it.

 

[aja8888]

I think he was just making stuff up here. It’s been well documented that there is a significant demand for a $35K Tesla, but it is not being produced because Tesla can not build one for $35K and make a profit on it.

Wait for the current crop of Model 3's to hit the used market (2 years?). You can probably pick one up for about 1/2 the new cost. EV's depreciate like a fire in a paper mill takes the building down.

 

[Ready]

Wait for the current crop of Model 3's to hit the used market (2 years?). You can probably pick one up for about 1/2 the new cost. EV's depreciate like a fire in a paper mill takes the building down.

I wish that were true, but looking at the prices of used Teslas I just don’t see any bargains out there. The used Model S cars are selling for ridiculously high prices. The used Model 3 cars are listing for above the net price of a new one after incentives, which makes no sense at all.

Perhaps if enough volume of used Model 3’s hit the market in a couple of years this will change. But Tesla has traditionally had a higher than average residual value on used cars.

 

[ERD50]

I think he was just making stuff up here. It’s been well documented that there is a significant demand for a $35K Tesla, but it is not being produced because Tesla can not build one for $35K and make a profit on it.

+1

Wait for the current crop of Model 3's to hit the used market (2 years?). You can probably pick one up for about 1/2 the new cost. EV's depreciate like a fire in a paper mill takes the building down.

That was (is?) true of the Leaf, but their batteries (at least earlier generation) have not been shown to be as robust as Tesla's. And with ~ 80~100 mile range (IIRC) on the Leaf, that degradation gets more serious.

-ERD50