Thoughts on TESLA

[Chuckanut]

A Tesla detected a car running a red light before the driver and stopped it in time.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-automatic-emergency-braking-saves-model-x-video/

 

[Chuckanut]

This is interesting

X https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-35k-model-3-standard-range-new-interior-options/

“The $35,000 Model 3 is here. Interested buyers can now order the $35,000 Model 3 with a standard interior and a 220-mile battery. The company is also rolling out a new “partial premium interior” with better seats for an additional $2,500 premium.”

“Tesla has also released the Model 3 Standard Range Plus, which is capable of going 240 miles per charge. The Standard Range Plus is faster than the $35,000 variant too, with its 0-60 mph time of 5.3 seconds and its 140 mph top speed. In a blog post announcing the release of the Model 3’s new variants, Tesla notes that with the Standard Range Plus, customers “get 9% more range, more power, and an upgraded interior.”

 

[aja8888]

$35,000, black, and no cruise control at all? Is there any another mainstream car at $35,000 that doesn't include cruise control? I don't buy expensive, or high trim cars, and I honestly don't remember the last car I bought that didn't have cruise control.

I dunno, I expect that a lot of those with M3 reservations were hoping for a fuller featured car at that price. They've already lost $3,250 in tax credits.

-ERD50

I can't believe it would not have cruise control (at least not basic cruise control). These days, it's on anything you buy. Plus, it's not a high cost feature. Crazy if true!

 

[Ready]

So the real base price for the car is $35K, plus $1,200 destination/doc fee, plus $3K for rudimentary cruise control. So it’s really a $39,200 car. Previously you could get auto pilot for $5K, now you have to either get the watered down $3K cruise control, or pay $8K for full self driving, which isn’t ready yet anyway. I don’t like that.

 

[ERD50]

The "good news".

Tesla shares drop after Elon Musk says he does not expect to turn a profit in the first quarter


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/28/elon-musk-tesla-not-profitable-in-q1.html

But "We do think that profitability in Q2 is likely,” Musk said.

I dunno. As long as they aren't losing tons of money, it could be OK if they really are building the company. It's not uncommon at this stage. Lots of things in the air.

But it just seems that TSLA is priced for perfection. And who knows if they really can grow profitably, and face upcoming competition. A big 'if'. Some of those companies still have their full $7,500 tax credit available.

On the earlier discussion of used Tesla prices - it sure looks like these cars are going to be $$$ to maintain. You often can't just take them to an independent repair place or body shop. And if gas stays in the $2.xx range, adding a charger install cost, it's not gonna be a big cost offset for many.

Model 3 maintenance plan cost should be available in a few months? I predict they will be far higher than what I spend, even with 10,000 mile oil changes, and other ICE/trans related costs and assuming average 12,000 miles annually.

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

So the real base price for the car is $35K, plus $1,200 destination/doc fee, plus $3K for rudimentary cruise control. So it’s really a $39,200 car. Previously you could get auto pilot for $5K, now you have to either get the watered down $3K cruise control, or pay $8K for full self driving, which isn’t ready yet anyway. I don’t like that.

To be fair (I always am, though I'd bet some of the fans here don't think so!), most cars have a destination charge and doc fee. Mine was $925 + $165, so $1,200 isn't out of line.

$395 up-charge for metallic red for me, not $2,500!

-ERD50

 

[bobandsherry]

But "We do think that profitability in Q2 is likely,” Musk said.



I dunno. As long as they aren't losing tons of money, it could be OK if they really are building the company. It's not uncommon at this stage. Lots of things in the air.

Agreed, but at $300+/sh that would have expectation of profits. And since stock took a dip after that news it seems investors feel this isn't good news and that a lower price/share is appropriate.

 

[NW-Bound]

A Tesla detected a car running a red light before the driver and stopped it in time.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-automatic-emergency-braking-saves-model-x-video/

I watched the video and it did not make a lot of sense.

The driver stopped at an intersection at a red light. As his light turned green, he moved forward, and another driver running the red light crossed right in front of his car, moving from left to right. It is at 0:40 in the video.

If the sensors in that Tesla detected anything it would be at the very last seconds. Perhaps that did still help, but a car with a longer-range and side-looking sensor would have seen the other car a lot sooner.

 

[ERD50]

Agreed, but at $300+/sh that would have expectation of profits. And since stock took a dip after that news it seems investors feel this isn't good news and that a lower price/share is appropriate.

Agree with that also. I'm just saying that they can survive a long time as long as they are near break-even, and not bleeding cash.

What their stock price would do, I can't say. I guess it depends how patient the market is with them. I don't understand the current valuation!

Maybe by the end of Q2 or Q3, things might be stable enough to take a somewhat meaningful rough shot at a forward looking analysis. If they are near a 500,000 annual production rate, and we can estimate margin, and future growth, we might come up with something based on some reasonable P/E? At this point, I think TSLA has been running on "Hopeium". Though of course, that sometimes pays off.

-ERD50

 

[NW-Bound]

While we wait for the announcement, here's another burned Tesla story to tick off the fans...

https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/hybrid-electric/a26558547/tesla-burnt-vermont-lake

Picture from Popular Mechanics, from above article.

I still blame this incidence on the driver. It was said that he hit a rock, and most likely the undercarriage battery pack got punctured.

You don't go 4-wheeling in a sedan with perhaps 4" of ground clearance, whether an EV or an ICE car. The car owner got what he deserved.

 

[bobandsherry]

I still blame this incidence on the driver. It was said that he hit a rock, and most likely the undercarriage battery pack got punctured.



You don't go 4-wheeling in a sedan with perhaps 4" of ground clearance, whether an EV or an ICE car.

This was mentioned earlier, so guess confusing why they would have punctured.

Tesla added titanium and aluminum shields underneath their vehicles to prevent puncturing the batteries. This started in 2014.

 

[NW-Bound]

A skid plate that is strong enough to protect the battery when the car weight is resting on it would have to be quite heavy.

This is a skid plate on a 4-wheeler.

 

[ERD50]

I watched the video and it did not make a lot of sense.

The driver stopped at an intersection at a red light. As his light turned green, he moved forward, and another driver running the red light crossed right in front of his car, moving from left to right. It is at 0:40 in the video.

If the sensors in that Tesla detected anything it would be at the very last seconds. Perhaps that did still help, but a car with a longer-range and side-looking sensor would have seen the other car a lot sooner.

A comment pointed out - the Ford in the lane next to him (you see it near the start) apparently didn't get hit, and it probably has no advanced features.

That Ford driver probably did what we are all supposed to do - look left/right before proceeding. Maybe the Tesla driver is lazy, counting on these features.

We may never be able to sort this from the data, but how many of these 'saves' wouldn't have happened had the driver not become lulled by the "AutoPilot"? Like the guy that hit a semi?

-ERD50

 

[NW-Bound]

I have been working on my car, and only go on the Web now to see the news about the $35K Model 3.

It is obvious to me that the buyer pool for the higher-priced Model 3 has dried up, and Tesla has to release the base model sooner than they wanted to.

It will be interesting to see if the sales perk up. At $35K, the Model 3 is more enticing than other EVs in this class, such as the 2019 Nissan LEAF which lists for $5K less but with a range of 151 miles instead of 240.

Tesla may not make money on the basic Model 3, but this will keep the factory going. And it also keeps the buyers from going to the competition because they are tired of waiting.

 

[JoeWras]

You don't go 4-wheeling in a sedan with perhaps 4" of ground clearance, whether an EV or an ICE car. The car owner got what he deserved.

Can't disagree with that!

Maybe they are going to be the subject of a future "Farmers" insurance commercial. Show a couple of yahoos taking out their invincible $80k high tech gadget for a spin on the ice when hell breaks loose. "We know a thing or two because we've seen yahoos with low profile cars do stupid things..."

A nice touch for the commercial (which stylize the actual events) would be to strap the ice house to the roof of the car.

 

[imoldernu]

Couldn't delete previous post, but was trying to link this UTube link about the new Tesla Semi... who knew?.

And the "3"

 

[Hamlet]

I still blame this incidence on the driver. It was said that he hit a rock, and most likely the undercarriage battery pack got punctured.

You don't go 4-wheeling in a sedan with perhaps 4" of ground clearance, whether an EV or an ICE car. The car owner got what he deserved.

When an ICE car hits a rock, it doesn’t burst into flame though. I’ve hit a few things on the road over my driving history. Some of them did damage to my car that needed to be fixed. None of them caused my vehicle to burst into flame. It will be interesting to see how common this ends up being compared to fires in ICE vehicles.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Just noticed in the fine print of all of today's exciting news, that the Model 3 I purchased last year, with a range of 310 miles, will receive a software update enabling the car to have a range of 325 miles.

It doesn't really help me, as I would have been fine with a Leaf's range. But I won't turn it down.

 

[NW-Bound]

When an ICE car hits a rock, it doesn’t burst into flame though. I’ve hit a few things on the road over my driving history. Some of them did damage to my car that needed to be fixed. None of them caused my vehicle to burst into flame. It will be interesting to see how common this ends up being compared to fires in ICE vehicles.

Fair enough.


EVs all have their battery packs mounted under the floor, as it is the only logical space. Tesla packs are large and flat assemblies that cover the entire floor space between the wheels. Perhaps that make them more vulnerable to road hazards.

The Chevy Volt and the Nissan Leaf batteries have less bottom surface areas, in exchange for some thickness that rises into the passenger space. Their designs reduce the risk of road hazards, but do not provide a flat floor.


In the photos below, the Volt has its battery in the shape of a T.

The Leaf battery has a portion tucked under the rear seat.

In addition, different battery chemistry compositions have different characteristics. Earlier I showed a guy puncturing a pouch cell taken from a Leaf, and it did not ignite.


Here it is again, the video of a Leaf cell getting punctured and set on fire.

 

[ERD50]

....
Tesla may not make money on the basic Model 3, but this will keep the factory going. And it also keeps the buyers from going to the competition because they are tired of waiting.

Yes. A couple times during my career, we developed and shipped a product that we knew was a money loser. But it kept us 'in the game', and we had a plan for a next generation product that would be profitable. Better to get that money loser out for now, than to wait 6-9 months for the real money maker.

The marketing guys/gals told us, if we lose a customer to the competition because we didn't have a product in that category, we might lose that customer forever. Customers tend to have inertia, and buy what they know.

.... EVs all have their battery packs mounted under the floor, as it is the only logical space. Tesla packs are large and flat assemblies that cover the entire floor space between the wheels. Perhaps that make them more vulnerable to road hazards. ...

I think we talked about this way back, when some of these first fires occurred. I recall looking at my cars, the gas tank has only about a 1.5' by 2.5' area exposed, and it is pretty high up and tucked up and behind the rear axle. Seems far less likely to get damaged by some road debris, or whatever.

-ERD50

 

[NW-Bound]

About Tesla closing all stores, I think it may explain why service was so poor during the hectic delivery period in last December. Something like this is difficult to keep a secret from employees, and their morale was definitely affected. It brings back memory of hard times at my former megacorp.

 

[ERD50]

No one touting today as another buying opportunity?

Down more than 7% on an overall flat/up day in the market.

TSLA 296.00 -23.88 (-7.47%) As of 12:07PM EST. Market open

If so, please note your time/price so we can all follow. After all, this is the "stock picking" thread.

-ERD50

 

[oneill225]

No one touting today as another buying opportunity?
Down more than 7% on an overall flat/up day in the market.
TSLA 296.00 -23.88 (-7.47%) As of 12:07PM EST. Market open
If so, please note your time/price so we can all follow. After all, this is the "stock picking" thread.-ERD50

I've got a buy in at 293; floating just above that, now.

Enjoy.

 

[oneill225]

Upside

This is my view:

https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-s-x-sales-february-2019/

I think the Model 3 is great, but the sedan market is weak, overall. The big money maker will be the Model Y (85% based on the Model 3 design). It will tap into the popular mid-size cross-over market. Even better, no serious competition for Tesla this year and probably the next.

Lots of upside for Tesla and no more need to address the reflexive critics who claimed they could never get the Model 3 down to $35k.

 

[bobandsherry]

I've got a buy in at 293; floating just above that, now.



Enjoy.

Guess your buy order executed, looks like it hit under $292 today.