Thoughts on TESLA

[oneill225]

" Dan Neil" comments, posted by forum member "oneill225"? Coincidence?
Hey, you "forgot" to post other quotes in that same article!
From the SAME article:
"Bill Visnic, editorial director at the Society of Automotive Engineers is less optimistic. He predicts gas and diesel-powered “combustion engines really aren’t going anywhere for quite some time.”
Mary Nichols, who heads the California Air Resources Board, agrees that internal combustion engines aren’t going away anytime soon. "
-ERD50

Not too long ago we did not have personal computers, the internet, and online shopping. Now, most Americans under the age of 70 do not go a day without using them. It has made investors in Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Et al, quite wealthy. The small number of older folks who hang onto the tech of the past, is insignificant compared to this larger picture.

Tesla is the clear leader in another revolutionary shift (the shift to EV from ICE). In five to ten years, the market for new ICE cars will be near death and the gasoline infrastructure will be struggling to survive just as the shopping malls are struggling to compete with online shoppers, today. This is inevitable and a great investment opportunity for those who can see it.

 

[ERD50]

Not too long ago we did not have personal computers, the internet, and online shopping. Now, most Americans under the age of 70 do not go a day without using them. It has made investors in Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Et al, quite wealthy. The small number of older folks who hang onto the tech of the past, is insignificant compared to this larger picture. ....

Do you seriously believe any of that is relevant at all? Just because you can cherry pick some past successes (in the rear view mirror), does not mean that EVs, and especially Tesla specifically, will follow that same path.

... Tesla is the clear leader in another revolutionary shift (the shift to EV from ICE). In five to ten years, the market for new ICE cars will be near death and the gasoline infrastructure will be struggling to survive just as the shopping malls are struggling to compete with online shoppers, today. This is inevitable and a great investment opportunity for those who can see it.

Just keep telling yourself that. While TSLA is down 3% on an up market day, and has lagged the market for the recent 1, 2, and 5 year periods.

-ERD50

 

[Ronstar]

Do you seriously believe any of that is relevant at all? Just because you can cherry pick some past successes (in the rear view mirror), does not mean that EVs, and especially Tesla specifically, will follow that same path.
-ERD50

Don’t know if Tesla and ev’s in general will be successful. But all of the stodgy old car companies are jumping on the EV bandwagon. There has to be something to it. They can’t all be willing to follow Tesla off a cliff.

 

[ERD50]

Don’t know if Tesla and ev’s in general will be successful. But all of the stodgy old car companies are jumping on the EV bandwagon. There has to be something to it. They can’t all be willing to follow Tesla off a cliff.

No conflict or surprise there. There is a market for EVs, there are also penalties in some states for not producing these so called "zero pollution" cars. And the market will grow as EVs become cheaper as battery costs come down. So these companies want a piece of that market, and to avoid the penalties. Some of them currently pay Tesla to get credits to offset any lack of sales of EVs.

But what does that mean for Tesla (the subject of this thread)? Some of these other companies still have their full $7,500 credit in place. And they can now take advantage of lower battery prices and sell cars in a price range where $7,500 is a bigger deal. And Tesla will lose those transfer credit payments.

As I've said many times, I expect EVs to continue to gain market share. But I am not as optimistic as some of the fans here on how fast or how fully that will happen. I think ICE/hybrids will stay competitive for a large part of the market for a long time. It's silly, IMO, to think it will be hard to find a gas station in 10 or even 20 years. Even if EVs hit 50% of sales in 5 years (which I do not expect), that leaves a lot of ICE on the road 15 years later.

Tesla may or may not go off a cliff, I don't know. Even if they do, other companies may survive and sell EVs as part of their overall fleet. None of this is mutually exclusive.

Anyone know how much Tesla received in credits from other car companies? I have not heard in a while.

-ERD50

 

[JoeWras]

I still have a plasma TV as my daily viewer.

No wonder I haven't bought an EV yet.

 

[Chuckanut]

I still have a plasma TV as my daily viewer.

No wonder I haven't bought an EV yet.

I love my Panasonic Plasma TV and dread the day I will have to replace it.

 

[bobandsherry]

Details on the Model Y to be laid-out mid-March:

https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-y-unveiling-set-for-march-14/

Looks like it will cost about 10% more than the Model 3 (and it will be about 10% larger).

A Tesla pick-up truck should be unveiled later this year, as well. A lot happening for this company over the next two years.

Looks like investors view that as some more "good news". Any more "good news" and we'll see $250 soon. Guess you could have put your buy order in at $283 instead of $293.

 

[aja8888]

And once they're compromised you have fuel at several thousand psi being sprayed all over the engine compartment, something you'd never see with an EV.

My bold above. This is generally not true that gasoline engines have fuel delivery at that PSI. In the case of tank pumps, we are looking at 100 psi max (and usually much lower), and that's only if the car is powered up.

Where high pressure fuel pumps are in use in a gasoline-fueled car, it is a "direct injection" type delivery (ex. GDI in Hyundai/Kia), and that pump runs off the camshaft or off the main drive pulley (many diesels) into a high strength steel fuel rail. So it's highly unlikely that an "event" would render the GDI type pump to operate in a damaged mode in the event of a head on collision, for instance.

So we generally don't have fuel spraying all over the place in these fires. It could happen, but it's not a significant probability.

 

[oneill225]

Looks like investors view that as some more "good news". Any more "good news" and we'll see $250 soon. Guess you could have put your buy order in at $283 instead of $293.

A lot of news to digest, recently, and in the coming days/weeks. Once things settle out, you will see the stock rise. Looks like you have a great buy opportunity; go for it.

 

[aja8888]

A lot of news to digest, recently, and in the coming days/weeks. Once things settle out, you will see the stock rise. Looks like you have a great buy opportunity; go for it.

What's your estimate on where it will go? $400? $500?

 

[oneill225]

So we generally don't have fuel spraying all over the place in these fires. It could happen, but it's not a significant probability.

Kind of like a Tesla battery fire.

 

[oneill225]

What's your estimate on where it will go? $400? $500?

Sure; eventually. As I have said, before, Tesla is likely to trend up the same way Amazon did over the past few years. It is not a straight line, but the market leader in a vast new market should do well.

 

[aja8888]

Kind of like a Tesla battery fire.

Exactly, car fires happen because people do stupid or irresponsible things. And until we figure out how to power cars with Unicorn farts, we will still have car fires.

I'm not disputing the fact that cars have fires, I was just factually stating what pressures and systems are in place in gasoline powered cars and at what pressures fuel is delivered to injectors.

I would bet that the vast majority of car fires from liquid fuel are the result of rear impacts and ruptured fuel tanks vs engine related leaks. That would be similar to a damaged battery pack in an EV accident.

 

[oneill225]

Exactly, car fires happen because people do stupid or irresponsible things. And until we figure out how to power cars with Unicorn farts, we will still have car fires.
I'm not disputing the fact that cars have fires, I was just factually stating what pressures and systems are in place in gasoline powered cars and at what pressures fuel is delivered to injectors.
I would bet that the vast majority of car fires from liquid fuel are the result of rear impacts and ruptured fuel tanks vs engine related leaks. That would be similar to a damaged battery pack in an EV accident.

Agreed. Good thing they are rare, these days. Hardly worth talking about.

 

[bobandsherry]

A lot of news to digest, recently, and in the coming days/weeks. Once things settle out, you will see the stock rise. Looks like you have a great buy opportunity; go for it.

Think I'll just wait for more "good news" to come out. I think myself and others are indeed digesting everything from the past few days, as an INVESTOR:

• Musk initially saying that $35K car wouldn't be available until late in the year and then weeks later Tesla is offering $35K car - and on top of that dropping the price of S and X by $12K to $18K less than they were a week ago. My read on that is cars weren't selling well at the original prices and margins are going to get SQUEEZED significantly unless Tesla has something up it's sleeve that will offset the cost or production.
• Store closings announced, my take is this is not a good model, guess we'll have to wait and see. But not sure how Tesla expects to value and take trades. Other than the "fans" who waited in the wings, will just the common folk be willing to just buy a car without looking at it and taking it for test drive (the 1 week exchange policy is pretty nice - but reading horror stories from those who tried to return their Tesla just leaves me feeling I'll be in for a run around. Sounds like Tesla will need to go to a dealership type of model after all, a great way to reduce their cash/capital needs, but will SQUEEZE margins.
• Announcement of Model Y just a couple days after Tesla made all the other announcements, like Tesla didn't know this just last Thursday? My take it smells of desperation to reverse the trend of the stock to offset the earlier "good news".
• Tax incentives are going to be running off again mid-year and then will be $0 at end of the year for Tesla cars, so may require Tesla to further reduce the prices to remain competitive, another SQUEEZE on margins.
• Tesla wants to sell 400K-500K cars this year. My take is that will saturate their market. And with tax credits expiring, that may make it even harder. Yea, I know China and Europe will soon by buying thousands of cars, jury still out on how much penetration Tesla can make there, especially in China with so many other EV's at a much lower cost.

I fully understand this is a growth company, but the latest announcements don't seem to come from a company that is poised on strength in the underlying demand for their cars, but instead would indicate that demand has significantly dropped off. Not a good position to be if this is growth company. The P/E multiple it's trading at then would seem to be in the stratosphere. But as I've said before I could be wrong. I'm just not ready to put my money in this company when there are so many others that I can get a better risk/reward with.

 

[bobandsherry]

Tesla slashes retail employee compensation, seemingly pushing them out instead of layoffs

But while the company has yet to lay off employees, Electrek has now learned from Tesla employees that the automaker has stopped all bonuses for retail staff.

According to some Tesla employees talking to Electrek, those bonuses represented the majority of the overall compensation of many retail workers.

It enabled some of the top owner advisors to make a salary in the six figure range.

Now that Tesla is transitioning to online sales, the company is removing all commission for retail employees even though they are seemingly still going to handle sales throughout the transition period.

Some employees have told Electrek that they believe Tesla is slashing their compensation in an attempt to push them out during the transition before layoffs to avoid having to pay severance.

 

[bobandsherry]

Sure; eventually. As I have said, before, Tesla is likely to trend up the same way Amazon did over the past few years. It is not a straight line, but the market leader in a vast new market should do well.

You seem to think that Telsa is similar to Amazon, guess you just cherry pick the successful growth companies. But I'd like to point out that Amazon was originally without any stores and now making movement towards opening stores. At the same time, Tesla had stores and is now closing them. So comparison to Amazon seems to be irrelevant as they obviously have different models.

Let's also consider that, according to this article, two-thirds of fast growing companies fail. You seem to only consider Tesla will be successful, but based on this they run a bigger risk of failure.

about two-thirds of the companies that made the list had shrunk in size, gone out of business, or been disadvantageously sold. Why? Because they failed to make it through the fourth and final stage of enterprise maturity, where a company finally becomes self-sustaining.

And this is interesting - do you see where Tesla / Musk seem to fall into several of these?

Typically, leaders of our fastest-growing companies make one or more of these mistakes:

- Remain essential to the day-to-day execution of some aspect of running the company
- Falsely assume that financial viability is the end of the journey
- Use R&D to produce only incremental improvement to existing processes and products
- Acquire innovative companies and then drive their innovative talent away

For you to consistently compare Amazon's success to what Tesla will become seems to definitely be a stretch in my opinion.

 

[Running_Man]

https://www.valuewalk.com/2019/03/end-tesla-stock-the-standard-range-model-3/

Some as our veteran Wall Street scribe has posted here are died in the wool defenders of Elon and his visions, I see the outcome as similar as described by Whitney Tilson here and view the recent Tesla actions as all in for a short term cash grab, it is hypothesized that the requirement to buy Panasonic Batteries is fueling the money losing campaign by Tesla. It certainly makes no sense to me to delete your entire sales force and then send out a communication asking owners to be willing to let their cars be used by random individuals for a test drive.

As is stated in the article and could likely be true @ 250 Elon has borrowed against his shares, if the bank gets nervous it will take and sell them and that is the end of the TESLA story.

 

[bobandsherry]

https://www.valuewalk.com/2019/03/end-tesla-stock-the-standard-range-model-3/

Some as our veteran Wall Street scribe has posted here are died in the wool defenders of Elon and his visions, I see the outcome as similar as described by Whitney Tilson here and view the recent Tesla actions as all in for a short term cash grab, it is hypothesized that the requirement to buy Panasonic Batteries is fueling the money losing campaign by Tesla. It certainly makes no sense to me to delete your entire sales force and then send out a communication asking owners to be willing to let their cars be used by random individuals for a test drive.

As is stated in the article and could likely be true @ 250 Elon has borrowed against his shares, if the bank gets nervous it will take and sell them and that is the end of the TESLA story.

Love the video - this "comment" sums it all up, "$TSLA stock holders are dumber than AutoPilot".

The accident where driver was burned to death was discussed here earlier, but I hadn't seen this summary of the accident until I saw in link you provided.

In addition, Musk needed a distraction from horrible news of the past 2 weeks. On Sunday there was a Model S crash in Davie, FL. The driver side front wheel’s suspension failed causing the wheel to fall off and the car to veer left and then spin around and crash into trees in the highway median. The driver survived the initial crash but then burned to death in broad daylight b/c first responders and bystanders could not open the door to his model S or break its rear window before the car exploded -- this was the second such case of people initially surviving a Model S crash before being burned to death inside a crashed Model S in Broward county in under a year. In both cases, first responders and bystanders were unable to get the crash victims out of the car before it exploded as the door handles were retracted into the car and couldn’t therefore be opened.

And then we also discussed about the General Councel leaving, but some passed it off as just a wrong fit. This article shares something again I hadn't heard.

With today’s announcement that Musk had fired Butswinkas and his firm Williams Connoley as his personal counsel in the SEC case, it is increasingly clear that Butswinkas’s departure as general counsel in less than a month was not amicable.

The "good news" just keeps a coming.... SMH

 

[NW-Bound]

Yikes! Suspension failure. Car door cannot be opened. I thought I had heard this before. Driver could not be rescued, got burned to death. Not good.

This would worry me more if I were a Tesla owner than death of bozos who engaged the autopilot then went to sleep.

 

[Texas Proud]

As you yourself point out, there's no 12 year old Tesla data available...yet.

But there remains far more potential sources of fire in a fossil-fuel vehicle vs. a Tesla or any EV...e.g. aging fuel lines rupturing on their own, being compromised by mechanical damage from road debris (few ICE vehicle have skid plates), or via an electrical fire in another component under the hood.

And once they're compromised you have fuel at several thousand psi being sprayed all over the engine compartment, something you'd never see with an EV.

My bold.... really I doubt very seriously that it is over 100 psi...


From what I remember in my younger days it was in the 50 to 70 psi range...

 

[NW-Bound]

On the cars I had and still have, the fuel injection pressure is less than 40 psi.

However, about 1/2 of new cars have GDI (Gasoline Direct Injection) which requires high pressure, much like diesel engine.

The pump is mechanically driven and will stop when the engine stops, as explained by aja8888.

My bold above. This is generally not true that gasoline engines have fuel delivery at that PSI. In the case of tank pumps, we are looking at 100 psi max (and usually much lower), and that's only if the car is powered up.

Where high pressure fuel pumps are in use in a gasoline-fueled car, it is a "direct injection" type delivery (ex. GDI in Hyundai/Kia), and that pump runs off the camshaft or off the main drive pulley (many diesels) into a high strength steel fuel rail. So it's highly unlikely that an "event" would render the GDI type pump to operate in a damaged mode in the event of a head on collision, for instance.

So we generally don't have fuel spraying all over the place in these fires. It could happen, but it's not a significant probability.

 

[bobandsherry]

My bold.... really I doubt very seriously that it is over 100 psi...


From what I remember in my younger days it was in the 50 to 70 psi range...

Yup - actually even lower, especially for DPI systems. Guess that happens when someone just shoots out anything to make a point without doing any research or providing a link to support his position. Speaking of which....

Once the fuel gauge had been attached, turn the ignition key to the "ON" position. The gauge should jump up to between 45 psi and 58 psi for most (DPI) direct port inject systems, throttle body injection (TBI) are between 13 and 17 psi.

https://www.2carpros.com/articles/how-to-check-fuel-system-pressure-and-regulator

 

[ERD50]

Yikes! Suspension failure. Car door cannot be opened. I thought I had heard this before. Driver could not be rescued, got burned to death. Not good.

This would worry me more if I were a Tesla owner than death of bozos who engaged the autopilot then went to sleep.

But is this different from other cars? Don't most cars auto-lock at ~ 15mph? An accident can turn off power to the door, so how do 1st responders get into a locked car if a fire breaks out in an ICE car, before they can break a window?

When I was in a bad accident, I passed out for maybe a few to tens of seconds, maybe a minute tops, and my hand was messed up enough I was having trouble with the door handle. Someone came up to the car, they were afraid to help me much (liability concerns, I get it), but I pleaded with them to open the door for me, as I was afraid the car would catch fire. I managed to get out OK, and there was no fire.

-ERD50

 

[kcowan]

I love my Panasonic Plasma TV and dread the day I will have to replace it.

Mine only lasted 5 years. Replaced with a Samsung that lasted 3 years, now have an LG still going strong. Finders crossed.

Any parallel between TVs and cars is a stretch.