Thoughts on TESLA

[aja8888]

Just three days ago in Texas, Tesla announced (via the Chronicle article I read) they were about to take legal action against the Texas legislature to try to get the law changed to be able to sell cars in the state thru their "service" facilities. Now they are only going to sell online?

 

[REWahoo]

Just three days ago in Texas, Tesla announced (via the Chronicle article I read) they were about to take legal action against the Texas legislature to try to get the law changed to be able to sell cars in the state thru their "service" facilities. Now they are only going to sell online?

Tesla had planned a big "EV Rally" at the capital this week to support the law change. The day after Musk's announcement they canceled it.

Tesla’s spokesman said Friday that the company is in the process of notifying Tesla car owners and other advocates that the event in Austin next week has been “postponed.”

https://www.statesman.com/news/2019...odel-leaves-texas-dealership-push-in-question

 

[ERD50]

Most recent vehicles (the ones ERD50 thinks are most comparable with Teslas) have been using GDI for some time now.

And it doesn't take a collision to breach the fuel line...mechanical failure of the line itself or an electrical fire in another under-hood component will do just fine.
....

But as was pointed out, that high pressure GDI is very localized. Again, comparable data would be far more informative than speculation based on some design principles.

Have they stopped installing skid plates? ....

I'm well aware that Tesla has included protection (and apparently felt that they didn't provide enough protection, and made design changes?). Broken record here, but do we have data to say this is better/worse than comparable ICE/hybrid vehicles?

Wow, TSLA has been down more than 5% today, and still down ~ 4% as I type. There was a lot of talk about all the "shorts" on TSLA, well, some of those would be buying to cover - imagine the drop if those shorts were not propping up the price. Looking ugly.

edit/add: And less than 2 hours in, and the volume is already higher than the average daily volume:

Volume 9,775,143
Avg. Volume 7,897,866


-ERD50

 

[ncbill]

I'm well aware that Tesla has included protection (and apparently felt that they didn't provide enough protection, and made design changes?). Broken record here, but do we have data to say this is better/worse than comparable ICE/hybrid vehicles?
-ERD50

Which comparable hybrid/ICE vehicles install skid plates at the factory on all models?

Fuel tanks on passenger vehicles generally aren't protected by more than the frame...the easiest way to steal fuel is to puncture the bottom of the tank.

 

[bobandsherry]

It's tough not to think TSLA is in distress. It would be one thing if the recent store closing looked like a strategy, but it looks a lot more to me like a reaction.

Mar 1, 2019 - Tesla Inc. plans to shutter most of its retail stores...

but recently...


Jan 17, 2019 Tesla renews lobbying efforts to open more retail stores in New Jersey



"Revving up lobbying efforts" - well, that's a longer term strategy, right? And less than two months later they close stores?

Dec 11 2018 - Tesla expands its store network in the U.S. by about 10% in just one week. (insideevs.com)

Dec 10, 2018 - Tesla is launching a new retail offensive with a focus on malls. (electrek.co)


And not so long ago...

June 15, 2018 - Tesla expands Model 3 display fleet to 17 more stores. (electrek.co)

It's hard to put a positive spin on that, I just don't see it as anything other than a desperate move. TSLA was down 3.2% yesterday, and down another 3.5% as I type. Yikes!

-ERD50

Yep, def seems like knee jerk reaction. And even the announcement of the $35K Model 3 didn't seem to be well thought out and planned as those cars won't be available for months, but be sure to give us the $$$ now for the deposit - SMH.

Gonna guess all this came about as Tesla had to pay out almost $1 billion in cash on the convertible bond. To me seems to be a rush to trim down on cash flow, short term strategy/solution, without a long term strategy/solution in place.

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
I'm well aware that Tesla has included protection (and apparently felt that they didn't provide enough protection, and made design changes?). Broken record here, but do we have data to say this is better/worse than comparable ICE/hybrid vehicles?
-ERD50

Which comparable hybrid/ICE vehicles install skid plates at the factory on all models?

Fuel tanks on passenger vehicles generally aren't protected by more than the frame...the easiest way to steal fuel is to puncture the bottom of the tank.

Counting to 10.........

Comparable data on fires. Not comparing designs, not comparing skid plates, not comparing fuel pressures, etc. EV and ICE/hybrid are different designs, so different safety mechanisms are required. My gas tank is 15" off the ground, much higher than the Tesla battery, and much less surface area. There is no point in comparing the mechanisms. You must compare occurrences of actual fires per mile on Teslas versus ICE/hybrids of similar class/age. That is where the rubber meets the road. Anything else is just a distraction.


And for all I know, Teslas may look good, maybe even very good when the data is looked at. I don't know, because I don't have the data. That's why I am not making any claims one way or the other. I question it, because of all that surface that close to the ground, and the fact that Tesla felt they needed to beef up the skid plates after the fact, makes me wonder. But if you want to claim Teslas are less likely to catch fire than comparable age/class ICE/hybrid, and wish to be taken seriously, you need to back it up with the data I described (and I've made this point several times now).

If you are unwilling or unable to provide the data, that's fine, but may I suggest you just drop it. The back-forth w/o data is just adding noise to an already too-long and too-noisy thread, IMO. Thanks.

-ERD50

 

[aja8888]

Fuel tanks on passenger vehicles generally aren't protected by more than the frame...the easiest way to steal fuel is to puncture the bottom of the tank.

Uhhhh......only an idiot would try something like that! Crawling under a car, trying to puncture a reinforced fiberglass (or steel) fuel tank, catching the fuel pouring out with a (?)?? Then what??

Why not just steal the whole car and deal with the fuel in it later?

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Yes I agree. This is a troubling about face. I suspect The Board insisted on it as a cost-cutting measure. Buying a new technology car by mail-order? And with a demonstrated poor return policy? See you in two years after the dust settles.

(Probably prefer a Model Y anyway...)

82% of Model 3's sold last year were without a test drive.

78% were purchased online.

 

[ls99]

82% of Model 3's sold last year were without a test drive.

78% were purchased online.

Most fascinating. That much trust with a lot $$$. I think Musk is better than Madoff.

 

[bobandsherry]

Tesla moved close to $270 today before a little recovery, now at just under $278. This is 3rd day in a row that share prices have slipped (or some may call it a dip) after Musk and Tesla shared "good news" about the company on Thursday when it closed at $320 (down over 13%). Volume has been heavy on the sell off over the three days, more than double the typical # of shares traded daily. Who's reaching out to catch this falling knife?

 

[NW-Bound]

Regarding the protection of the flat battery pack of the Tesla, it is a difficult design job because the skid plate and the battery cover do not have to be punctured to cause the cells to ignite.

If the metal plates are dented enough to crush the internal cells to touch to cause a short, that would trigger a meltdown of a few cells, which then spread to nearby cells and eventually the entire pack.

As shown in an earlier post, other EV makers design their packs differently to minimize the bottom surface area of the battery pack. The cells are also of the prismatic pouch construction, which have some flexibility to withstand some deformation. In addition, different battery chemistry compositions have different propensities to burn.

 

[ncbill]

Regarding the protection of the flat battery pack of the Tesla, it is a difficult design job because the skid plate and the battery cover do not have to be punctured to cause the cells to ignite.

If the metal plates are dented enough to crush the internal cells to touch to cause a short, that would trigger a meltdown of a few cells, which then spread to nearby cells and eventually the entire pack.

As shown in an earlier post, other EV makers design their packs differently to minimize the bottom surface area of the battery pack. The cells are also of the prismatic pouch construction, which have some flexibility to withstand some deformation. In addition, different battery chemistry compositions have different propensities to burn.

Certainly an impact severe enough to compromise the structural integrity of the battery pack could result in such...but from what has actually occurred it's clear that the impact required is not survivable, even w/o a fire.

And as you point out newer chemistries don't ignite as readily as current ones, though whether they can be implemented economically on such a large scale remains to be seen.

 

[NW-Bound]

Certainly an impact severe enough to compromise the structural integrity of the battery pack could result in such...but from what has actually occurred it's clear that the impact required is not survivable, even w/o a fire.

Not all battery fires were a result of a fatal impact. An example was reported earlier.

While we wait for the announcement, here's another burned Tesla story to tick off the fans...

https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/hybrid-electric/a26558547/tesla-burnt-vermont-lake

Picture from Popular Mechanics, from above article.

And as you point out newer chemistries don't ignite as readily as current ones, though whether they can be implemented economically on such a large scale remains to be seen.

No, I was talking about existing battery chemical compositions that are in production in current EVs.

The one chosen by Panasonic and Tesla has the best energy density for longer range and less weight. In addition, some other types of lithium batteries may not support high currents for fast charging, as well as fast discharge for a "stupendous acceleration mode". It's a compromise of many factors.

 

[ERD50]

Certainly an impact severe enough to compromise the structural integrity of the battery pack could result in such...but from what has actually occurred it's clear that the impact required is not survivable, even w/o a fire.
...

Are you referring to the earlier major collisions? You need to think far broader than that, we were talking about any sort of damage to the undercarriage.

A quick google of "tesla battery damage road debris" brought up lots of hits. These were survivable incidents:

The first one I clicked (bold mine):

https://forums.tesla.com/en_CN/node/141995

Battery puncture by a metal Debri on the road
Submitted by sauroop on August 27, 2018

I was driving my Tesla S this evening and was stuck by a metal debri on the highway and hit the bottom of my car.

Where as other cars in front of me drove over it with no issues.

Immediately i got my car to complete stop on the side of the highway to make sure everything is ok.
Then i drove to near by tesla service centre to get it checked under the car and make sure nothing major happened.
The technician informed me that battery might have been punctured and needs to be replaced.
He also said that i was lucky as it could have been worse and could have caught fire.

I wonder how come Tesla did not take care of this practical problem in the design.
I bought tesla in Feb 2018 and now i am asked to pay for the battery replacement as it happened due to outside influence.
Tesla service centre even denied to give a loaner car.

I am really upset with the whole thing...

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/preventing-battery-damage-from-road-debris.23663/

Preventing battery damage from road debris - Discussion in 'Model S: Battery & Charging' started by wcalvin, Nov 8, 2013.

https://www.greencarreports.com/new...l-s-fire-caused-by-collision-with-road-debris

First Tesla Model S Fire Caused By Collision With Road Debris - Oct 3, 2013

Of course, ICE cars can be damaged by road debris, and it would not be covered under warranty. But your statement just is not true. Tesla batteries have been damaged in accidents that were not fatal, even with no injuries at all. This is why we are saying that Teslas might be more vulnerable, due to the much greater surface area, and being closer to the road surface than a gas tank.

On an ICE car, that road debris is far more likely to hit something other than the gas tank, and a repair, if needed, would most likely be far cheaper than a battery pack. And on average, a service station for an ICE car will be much closer than the nearest Tesla service center.

-ERD50

 

[bobandsherry]

Here's someone else's two cents on Tesla, spend it however you like.

Tesla's Rushed Model Y Unveiling Looks Like Desperation

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4246515-teslas-rushed-model-y-unveiling-looks-like-desperation

 

[NW-Bound]

How about this Nio car, which has been called the Tesla of China?

Its ground clearance looks about 2". And I bet the battery is under the floor too.

 

[JoeWras]

How about this Nio car, which has been called the Tesla of China?

Its ground clearance looks about 2". And I bet the battery is under the floor too.

Reminds me a bit of the Batmobile. Not really a fan.

Time for the EV companies to take out the weirdness and just become conventional if they want to play in the sandbox with everyone else.

I'll include hybrids too. Latest Prius? Awful. Stop the weirdness for whatever reason (edginess, 1 mpg better through the slipstream, etc.)

 

[NW-Bound]

You made me look. Yes, the Prius has a new look.

Generally, I do not like the look of many new cars. They often have some features that remind me of the Transformer toys for kids. Compared to these, Tesla cars are more pleasing to my eyes, although I will not buy another low-riding sedan.

 

[bobandsherry]

Reminds me a bit of the Batmobile. Not really a fan.

Time for the EV companies to take out the weirdness and just become conventional if they want to play in the sandbox with everyone else.

I'll include hybrids too. Latest Prius? Awful. Stop the weirdness for whatever reason (edginess, 1 mpg better through the slipstream, etc.)

Here's comparison of old and new Prius, not sure I would have even noticed there was a change.

 

[NW-Bound]

Hmmm... I was talking about the frontal look of the Prius with the jowls that the 2019 Camry also sports.

And that is accentuated in the 2019 model, but has been there in a more subdued manner ever since the 2010 model. Only the 2009 Prius does not have these holes under the headlights.

It shows how much attention I pay to cars.

 

[Ronstar]

My snowbird neighbor has an F250 that doesn’t fit in his garage so that the overhead door shuts. But he parks the truck in the garage anyway. He keeps the garage door open 24/7. I’m fairly certain that he’s received multiple letters, etc re: noncompliance to HOA rules.

So what does he do? He buys a Tesla. It fits in garage but he still doesn’t close the door.

Now on to my question. He still has the F250, which he parked last night in guest parking, and left parking lights on. When the F250’s battery goes dead, will he be able to jump start it with the Tesla?

 

[JoeWras]

You made me look. Yes, the Prius has a new look.

Generally, I do not like the look of many new cars. They often have some features that remind me of the Transformer toys for kids. Compared to these, Tesla cars are more pleasing to my eyes, although I will not buy another low-riding sedan.

Agree. I'd take a Tesla, with with what some are calling a "dated" design, over the Prius or any other Toyota grin.

This is one thing Tesla has done right. They didn't follow the model that the Honda Insight or GM EV1 started. Kudos for not making a skinny-tired potato.

 

[ls99]

Seems Musk is selective in revealing non-public information to a choosen few.
Example: he would not disclose margins on the $35K Model 3 to an already secretive slective audience.. Then proceed to disclose this info in a private call to Deutche Bank.
He is already in a bit of hot water with the SEC this may cause them to get a bit more interested in Tesla's affairs.
https://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-musk-mistake-20190305-story.html
"
After a leaked transcript was made public online, even some of Tesla’s most ardent supporters began to complain.

“Yo,” vocal Tesla fan and shareholder Galileo Russell tweeted on Tuesday. “Why was there a press call about the $35K model 3 that was closed to the public (and shareholders!!) w/ no transcript released. super frustrating for long-term supporters. Completely goes against democratization of information and financial markets.”

An analyst at Deutsche Bank said Tesla had shared information with him about Model 3 profit margins, even though Musk refused to answer a question about margins on the media conference call."

 

[Running_Man]

Seems Musk is selective in revealing non-public information to a choosen few.
Example: he would not disclose margins on the $35K Model 3 to an already secretive slective audience.. Then proceed to disclose this info in a private call to Deutche Bank.
He is already in a bit of hot water with the SEC this may cause them to get a bit more interested in Tesla's affairs.
https://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-musk-mistake-20190305-story.html
"
After a leaked transcript was made public online, even some of Tesla’s most ardent supporters began to complain.

“Yo,” vocal Tesla fan and shareholder Galileo Russell tweeted on Tuesday. “Why was there a press call about the $35K model 3 that was closed to the public (and shareholders!!) w/ no transcript released. super frustrating for long-term supporters. Completely goes against democratization of information and financial markets.”

An analyst at Deutsche Bank said Tesla had shared information with him about Model 3 profit margins, even though Musk refused to answer a question about margins on the media conference call."

To call the insider information transfer Musk had with SELECTED members of the EV industry a media conference call is what Musk would prefer to call it, the purpose was to make the insiders feel important and give positive reviews of TESLA in their blogs, magazines and newspapers.

 

[ERD50]

My snowbird neighbor has an F250 that doesn’t fit in his garage so that the overhead door shuts. But he parks the truck in the garage anyway. He keeps the garage door open 24/7. I’m fairly certain that he’s received multiple letters, etc re: noncompliance to HOA rules.

So what does he do? He buys a Tesla. It fits in garage but he still doesn’t close the door.

Now on to my question. He still has the F250, which he parked last night in guest parking, and left parking lights on. When the F250’s battery goes dead, will he be able to jump start it with the Tesla?

I was curious, from what I found, the Tesla 12V accessory battery is pretty small, and probably doesn't have much cranking capability because that's not what it's for.

But if the F250 battery is just discharged and could be recharged, the Tesla should be able to charge it if you give it enough time. I assume the main battery would keep them topped off. But it may not have enough power to just connect and go.

-ERD50